Vincent Daniel
@VD718
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Co-founder of Seawolf Capital- Mets, Jets and Value Investing Go Hand in Hand
Joined June 2012
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Brings back disturbing memories
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Hey
@LukeGromen
, do you think it’s about time for the ‘It’s Just an Asset Swap’ and ‘QE doesn’t do anything’ believers to admit that perhaps, they are wrong?
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If one of my longs produced numbers and a sobering conference call like TSLA’s 3Q23 quarterly results, it would be down at least 10%- and yet their is a 50/50 shot TSLA stock will be up tomorrow- God bless their investor base and market structure.
Is it me, or is this call an ABSOLUTE disaster? Thoughts
@GerberKawasaki
? Thoughts
@garyblacks00
?
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Really funny headline when you stop and think about it- A bank that makes loans for a living starts a division to make loans. Guess those risk weights too hard to handle.
*CITI IS IN TALKS TO START PRIVATE CREDIT STRATEGY BY EARLY 2024
as long as the music is playing you've got to get up and dance
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I would thought a superior AI underwriting process would have sniffed out deterioration in ‘prime’ credits before originating the loan. That said, seems like the company’s AI correctly guided mgmt to sell stock.
Can $UPST just die already
You are not AI
You are not a serious company
You are not serious people
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Awesome job Jack and thanks for having us on the podcast!!
My latest interview with
@VD718
and
@Seawolfcap
out now:
THE NEXT BIG SHORT: THE DEBT SUPERCYCLE
Filmed for 2 hours in-person during Powell's FOMC speech 🔥
Watch on
@Blockworks_
👇
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Thanks for having us on guys. Always fun to talk shop and share views and ideas.
Value: After Hours with
@farnamjake1
@Seawolfcap
and
@VD718
is LIVE TODAY at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P / 6.30pm UTC / 4.30am AUS
Watch it on the Acquirers Podcast channel: …
Turn on notifications to the channel to be sent a reminder.
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Been waiting for something like this to drop- Well done and thank you
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The correlation of people asking for some form of bailout/deposit protection and also wanting higher unemployment so long duration risk assets to appreciate seems to be very high.
A dimension to this story that we can’t forget.
Many of the leading folks in the industry that now wants Powell to step up and protect them spent the last 5 years telling lies and breeding cynicism about the Fed as pretext to sell cryptocurrencies to retail bagholders.
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I really don’t get the love affair for this name. So many yellow and red flags- I do agree, perfect execution in applying Silicon Valley Accounting Principles (SVAP).
$SOFI's execution should be rewarded with a much higher multiple than it gets. There is no US Fintech nor bank with better execution in the last two years. Not one.
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M&T has great mgmt pedigree. I remember meeting former CEO Robert Wilmers with
@Seawolfcap
and seeing his bike parked near corporate headquarters in NYC- Very bank geek stuff but I felt I was looking at a royal treasure.
Not every regional bank did stupid things when flush with deposits. Great thread. $MTB
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Thanks for having me on Jack- always enjoy talking markets with you. Currently listening to most recent Coinbase podcast. Keep up the great work.
Great quote from
@VD718
:
"You show me the asset with the low risk weighting, and I will show you where the next bubble is."
So much learning in this one... especially on the banks
We talk energy & uranium, too
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@dailydirtnap
Zero cost of capital strategy in a capital intensive industry gone bad when the Fed pulled liquidity
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Great episode guys - Both
@CameronDawson
and
@LukeGromen
brought their A games!
A supersized OTT is in your feeds!
First,
@CameronDawson
joins
@GuyAdami
,
@dmoses34
& Dan to talk about late-cycle behavior, earnings & her year-end outlook
Then,
@LukeGromen
joins to discuss all things macro (yields, gold, oil, & more)
Sponsors
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
@ro
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@BriannaWu
I am starting to think he is conducting a science experiment/study on human gullibility
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Thanks for having us on today-great session!
Vinny
@VD718
Daniel and Porter
@Seawolfcap
Collins join
@farnamjake1
and me on Value: After Hours LIVE TODAY at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P / 5.30pm UTC / 3.30am AUS
Watch it on the Acquirers Podcast channel:
Subscribe to be sent a reminder:…
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Someone has to buy our debt (also called treasuries) at relatively low coupons. Banks were always the logical levered buyer- I would have thought the whole SIVB fiasco would have exposed the flaws but…someone has to buy the debt.
A potential change in leverage calculations could make banks a limitless purchaser of Treasuries just as future issuance is surging. This well worn path of sovereign financing would boost liquidity across markets and place upward pressure on asset prices.
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One major difference between current markets and yesteryear is the lack of price discovery from elevated insider activity. In the past, insider sells or buys were signals- Today?…who cares. I attribute it to current market structure.
Another $SOFI insider sale.
@Derek_j_white
, CEO of Galileo Technologies, SoFi's Tech Platform, filed a form 144 to sell 49k shares worth $443k. Somehow I missed this one yesterday with the other filings.
Per his most recent Form 4, it's about 11% of his current $SOFI shares.
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Thanks
@GuyAdami
for being concerned about my mental psyche post Mets debacle and Rodgers injury- I know it came from the heart. Great podcast and
@UrbanKaoboy
a super value added guest voice to your arsenal
New episode of OTT is in your feeds! Dan,
@GuyAdami
&
@dmoses34
chat the market's mixed messages, MS $TSLA upgrade, airlines $JETS & $GENI $SRAD
+
@UrbanKaoboy
joins to talk all things macro & what could trigger an oil sell-off
Sponsors
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
@FactSet
@ro
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Laugh track anytime ‘Fed Independence’ is suggested
Wow .. Biden speaking in PA just now: "that little outfit that sets interest rates .. it's going to come down. They're going to come down"
Lower interest rates ahead??
#fed
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My question is why is anyone surprised. Did people actually think he wasn’t going to attempt to use the platform to his complete advantage?
My savagery is proportional to hypocrisy and bad marketing.
Restricting competitors and restricting even people talking about competitors = weak sauce.
The pro free speech schtick is a marketing thing. Not a real position. It is therefore fair to mock it.
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Great thread and informative for the peeps who were not old enough to experience 99/00. And for people who did live it, a solid trip down memory lane.
1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble:
Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble
A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -
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Great thread- this particular statement provides much color as to why we are seeing what we are seeing in the options market. Show me the risk weights and I’ll show you the excess leverage
The "smart money" is now exploiting a new regulatory loophole in the options market to make a quick (lucrative) buck. They are selling large amounts of deep out-of-the-money 0DTE options, without having to post margin to clearinghouses, who don't count intraday expiries...
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I always wondered what a Musk run company would look like without massive government subsidies and QE tailwinds
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Great podcast!
@DiMartinoBooth
on her game
There's a brewing credit crisis in car loans 🚗, according to
@DiMartinoBooth
.
Borrowers are now walking away from their cars because they know they can't pay the loan back.
Link to full interview:
Apple 🔊
Spotify 🔊
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@LukeGromen
It’s funny Luke- few are talking about this trend and my guess is this will be on the front pages in a few months
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Not sure why but it irks me that financial media feels like they need to dress like they are Kevin Costner in Yellowstone at Jackson Hole. When I visit Miami, I don’t dress like Pitbull- in the words of
@dmoses34
, make it stop.
@Seawolfcap
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@SantiagoAuFund
As we quarrel over the meaning of Buffett’s gold purchase (my take-perhaps too small to claim victory but definitely not a negative for current gold owners), what I find more interesting is his non-trivial reduction in his regulated bank positions.
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Great podcast. Anyone who invokes Robert Moses to describe Powell’s view of his role in society warrants a listen. Well done
MacroVoices
@ErikSTownsend
and
@PatrickCeresna
welcome
@SimplifyAsstMgt
chief market strategist Mike Green
@profplum99
to the show to discuss the banking crisis, the debt ceiling debacle, de-dollarization, artificial intelligence and much more.
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Going to be hard for the BLS to apply hedonic adjustments to this price increase
The Jets increasing their Season Ticket prices 24% after a 4 win season in 2021 = Not Good
The Jets giving their Season Ticker Holders one months notice to pay for their 2024 tickets by Mid November when we have historically had until February the following year= Really Not Good
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More a gold guy but you can own both. Great episode guys!
What's the better calamity trade: Gold or Bitcoin?
@RiskReversal
,
@GuyAdami
&
@dmoses34
discuss on the latest episode of "On The Tape."
Watch now:
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Incredible presentation-the grift is off the charts
Thanks
@DutchRojas
This is absolutely SUPERB!
A brilliant job by
@bgurley
but the way the whole system works is just so damn depressing.
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This is great work
1) We are short The Bancorp, Inc. $TBBK. $TBBK holds $2B in multifamily bridge loans ("REBLs") and claims the book holds "no substantial risk of losses." We think otherwise. Our full report is now available on our website,
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Great podcast, particularly
@profplum99
’s bottom up perspective of ODTE option trends- Thanks confirms an admitted bias on bank risk weight philosophy. Show me the low risk weight and I will show the next risk.
"When interest rates go up, people are going to start to default"
@profplum99
on "The Big Short" dynamics which he sees at play now in car loans & commercial real estate
Apple 🔊
Spotify 🔊
YT 📽️
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Is this cost increase transitory or can we simply exclude it from economists preferred measurement of inflation and ignore it completely? Sadly CRE investors can’t ignore this very sticky inflation.
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Not sure if I should laugh, cry or be angry- I will go with D all of the above
SEC CHARGES S&P GLOBAL RATINGS WITH CONFLICT OF INTEREST VIOLATIONS - STATEMENT
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One of the best discussions I have heard on leverage in quite some time. Highly recommend this podcast.
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@Seawolfcap
@rsosa8
SOFI is sum of the best accounting alchemy I have seen. Can’t sell the loan or don’t like the marks? just keep it on the books and mark it up anyway- what amazes me is the bank regulators allow these earnings to be considered capital.
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@APompliano
I always find
@DoombergT
articles to be must reads and his latest on economic singularity was fantastic. Do you ever read their stuff?
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Great thread Jared
We've been inching closer to this for the last 16 years. Things always take longer than you think in finance, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're doing full-blown monetization in 2024-2028. That is the endgame. /fin
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I try not to miss any conversation with Lacy Hunt. Solid back to back podcasts of Napier and Hunt.
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@Papa60613
@hkuppy
We still own it- encourage everyone to do their own work but Kuppy’s analysis was spot on. CEO and management are top notch, own a ton of the company and love doing what they are doing.
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Solid thread
If you’re wondering why the economy has been so resilient take a look at this thread and let me know what you think … 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
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@CorneliaLake
an unfortunate setup for the Yipit bros- datascraping analysis strongly suggested a weak quarter but scraping analysis could not foresee
@hkuppy
coming off the top rope with a chair and some long term thinking. Still have the weak quarter ahead of us!
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My word this is refreshing- professor is spot on-
NEW ODD LOTS:
How to never have bank bailouts again.
@tracyalloway
and I talked to Stanford GSB professor Anat Admati, on her vision for redesigning bank funding in order to make the financial system far less fragile
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Saw this on my thread yesterday and I immediately thought of the
@OnTheTapePod
podcast. Great job this week!
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Gold hit 1,900!!!- I think we should change Danny’s name to Ace! Sorry you are on the opposite side of Danny’s wrath
@RiskReversal
.
@GuyAdami
,
@Seawolfcap
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Love how he recommends investors not to buy stock on margin- Major laugh track!!
Narrative chasing sycophants bereft of any fundamental analysis, tossing up softball questions. Musk setting the stage for a huge earnings miss by blaming everything on macro. $TSLA
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Thanks for having us on Ted! Great conversation
Big Shorts and big longs. My conversation with
@Seawolfcap
(Porter Collins) and Vincent Daniel from Seawolf Capital.
With thanks to
@Wellington_Mgmt
and Inflection Point Partners.
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Great podcast. Paulo and Kuppy’s AMRK pitch!
.
@KevinMuir
&
@PatrickCeresna
welcome
@PauloMacro
to the show. They discuss which commodities have fundamentals improving under the covers, and how he is playing this new era. Then we have our good friend
@HKuppy
to announce a new stock that he has previously never mentioned!
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Great thread- while I appreciate the buildup in TGA has not caused a liquidity reduction crisis as the funds are coming from the RRP, I fear complacency is shortsighted- my primary concern is structural fiscal policy-
Thread on financial bank plumbing, so that the repo/rate experts can all go nuts and tell me how dumb I am. Let’s go.
So it’s getting interesting in the whole TGA/RRP/bank reserves realm. TGA +$400bln in recent weeks, RRP -$500bln.
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Great thread
I’m not sure I have it in me to keep pumping out these framework threads anymore, but I will drop another historical comparison here for you friends to keep an eye on. 🧵
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For the most part, in general agreement, which is not my way (lol).
Short sellers are odd people. Most of them are ambitious, driven, antisocial, and single minded. As individuals, they are not very likely to own a Rolex watch or a Presidential springer spaniel or any other symbolic trappings of success; they are likely to have a wry slightly…
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Kudos to
@Seawolfcap
- for a trade, he effectively deployed
@dailydirtnap
’s A-hole index and bought
@gnoble79
’s NOPE ETF at peak Twitter hate. It’s an incredible trading tool Jared- thanks
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@marketplunger1
I think we should look at 2023 GDP, excluding Taylor Swift concert consumption expenditures- coming from a person with a teenage daughter.
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Balls indeed- as we come up on the 1 year anniversary of certain regional banks blowing up on….asset/liability mismanagement of long duration treasuries. Not surprised- need to find someone to buy coupon treasuries at low yields. H/t
@LukeGromen
Banks have some balls.
We won't participate in U.S. Treasury markets if you don't backstop us AND "permanently exclude on-balance sheet US Treasuries from total leverage exposure". 🙈🙅
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Great podcast- Luke is a must listen to on all things macro.
MacroVoices
@ErikSTownsend
and
@PatrickCeresna
welcome
@LukeGromen
to the show to discuss if the U.S. Dollar is having that "Luke Gromen Moment" he has predicted for years, the stock market, the U.S. fiscal situation, gold and much more.
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Well done Danny!
companies issue press releases & include certain words/phrases knowing the algos/HFT world will plug them into their machines: "growth in Adjusted EBITDA" "share buyback" etc.& have become prisoner to the passive (ETF) investment world & with that cater less to active managers
8/
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Congrats boys. Incredible call
I must say
@Integrity4mkts
call on $CVNA is so far the call of the Decade 2020's . Right for the Right reason, never blinked, made a fortune and did his business the right way.. He has my lifetime of respect and very very well done..
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Vintage Danny Moses!
Wanted to wait for the 10Q on $TSLA before commenting on the qtr; I'm sure 99% of people won't look through it but it always helps to clarify a few things; First thing that struck me off of the earnings report was
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Great stuff Brett and thanks for the shout out
BEAT THE PODS: A 7-POINT RECIPE FOR SINGLE MANAGERS
There has been some fun discussion here recently about the trend from single manager hedge funds (SMs) to multi-manager hedge funds (MMs or "pods"). Which is very sensical after a year like 2022 where there was a big…
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Solid podcast guys!
How
@FedGuy12
is seeing things:
- The recession doomers need to stop taking their "crazy pills"
- Stocks will "crush" bonds as record fiscal deficits reignite inflation
- Nominal GDP growth will continue to be strong as long as the U.S. government continues to print 2…
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@profplum99
Don’t get me started with corporate tax policy- one of the easier remedies to help reduce structural imbalances
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Houlihan Lokey marking illiquid private assets for VC/PE in 2022.
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Great stuff and thanks guys- I was just happy I got to pull off a Pardon the Interruption Tony Reali moment on Danny and Guy
New pod!
@VD718
&
@Seawolfcap
join
@dmoses34
,
@GuyAdami
& Dan to talk about ominous moves in the market, fiscal dominance, volatility, gold, banks & they give stock picks
Sponsors:
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
@ro
@FactSet
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Effing great thread
Ps - I will give you guys a 1999-2002 chart of Juniper so you know what I am talking about. This not only happened, it happened to more names than I can remember.
BEWARE MAX STUPID guys, I am telling you the odds are higher than you think that we go full stupid in a few corners
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BNPL is the modern day Rudolph!
Record holiday spending: good news, just one problem: consumers used buy-now-pay-later schemes to spend $7.3BN from Nov. 1 to Nov. 26, up 14% from a year ago, per Adobe
These are basically vendor/3rd party financing programs which don't show up on already maxed out credit cards
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Great job. The Rosary bead conversation reminded me of Cannonball Run (for the old timers)
🚨 🔥🎙️
@MorganStanley
's indomitable Equity Strategist & CIO, Mike Wilson, joins
@GuyAdami
@dmoses34
&
@RiskReversal
to reflect on his bearish stance in 2022 (+epic tactical rally call), and debate how the economy & markets bottom in 2023.
Sponsored by
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
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@GameofTrades_
In the case of delinquencies, I would suggest looking at levels rather than rate of change- Covid stim combined with NIRP created abnormally low levels of delinquencies.
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@value_invest12
Stock was due for a squeeze on any ‘good’ news. EBITDA is a useful metric but ignoring interest expense on a highly levered company is poor analysis. Then again, in a narrative driven market, I guess you have to try to pull a rabbit out of a hat.
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Hilarious
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Great interview-Thankful for Charlie providing color on one of the more powerful movers of near term markets, vol targeting institutions- In my view, it’s a shame these massive institutions are allowed to lever themselves as much as they do- unproductive use of capital
MacroVoices
@ErikSTownsend
and
@PatrickCeresna
welcome Nomura's Charlie McElligott to the show to discuss how prior tightening cycles have played out in markets and his prognostications for what present Federal Reserve policy will mean for the markets.
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@Seawolfcap
@Vinny_Daniel0
For me, going to Yankee Stadium for a do or die playoff game is the equivalent of personally handing the Bernank the Nobel Peace Prize- ain’t happening
@Vinny_Daniel0
.
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I think he might want to guest host the SNL Christmas episode before he goes that route. Based on how he is treated by certain politicians and the media, it’s probably not as far fetched as it seems.
Hey
@SBF_FTX
why don’t you just stage a car accident and claim amnesia? That actually would be more believable than this song and dance you are doing now.
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Great job guys! Agree with the concept of the derivative tail wagging the dog as an increasingly important factor- Assuming greatest hits albums are banned (Zep) I am going to go with Purple Rain followed by The Chronic
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Great podcast and thanks for the shout outs and hat tips- And Danny keep singing Janet’s ‘Control’!
🚨NEW POD🚨
@GuyAdami
,
@dmoses34
& Dan Nathan discuss the Dow win streak, central banks, tech earnings & deflationary risks
+
@JoeSaluzzi
of Themis Trading drops by to breakdown high-frequency trading & his white paper on DTCC leakage
Sponsors
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
@FactSet
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Another great podcast and thanks for the shout out!
🎙️🚨
@GuyAdami
@dmoses34
@RiskReversal
on Fed Chair Powell’s Point of No Return (to the Senate), $TSLA investor day a dud + we answer listener questions.
+Tom Lee
@fundstrat
joins to lay out his bullish thesis for stocks.
Sponsored by
@CMEGroup
@iconnections_io
@FactSet
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@agnostoxxx
Strong words from the cheap seats and very different tone when he was in a position of power-
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@WallStCynic
Someone forgot to tell CVNA mgmt the zero cost of equity capital strategy is no longer in vogue. In some respect, the amount of insider sales suggests they get the joke
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While they are ‘protecting’ existing investors, perhaps they should suspend investment fees and/or reduce NAV to more reflect actual value. Investment health might be aided by paying less fees.
Starwood Real Estate Income Trust limits withdrawals from the fund:
"These limits are designed to protect existing investors and the long-term health of the vehicle, and ultimately to maximize shareholder value"
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Proud of the BREIT LPs. NAV was elevated and seems like they tried to hit the false bid. While I get the benefits of gating, we never used it- it’s the clients money- furthermore, I think GPs should suspend management fees if they gate.
Mark-to-market accounting is one crazy drug. The fraud in MTM will all get unwound. And soon…
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@biancoresearch
Perhaps the saddest part of this analysis is the high probability that he would seek the exact opposite conclusion if it was a Republican administration. Give his deep partisan views, hard to take him seriously.
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