Lyn Alden
@LynAldenContact
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Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Finance/Engineering blended background. GP @egodeathcapital . BoD at (where I buy my bitcoin).
Joined January 2017
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Pinned Tweet
My April newsletter is out now.
It focuses on how a classic 60/40 portfolio doesn't typically perform well during inflationary decades, why that is, and how to tweak it to be more balanced for both disinflationary and inflationary periods.
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Imagine McDonald's makes its own money, let's call them clown-bucks, keeps most of it, and sells some to the market.
McDonald's then uses their remaining clown-bucks as collateral for actual loans.
And then people remember clown-bucks aren't real.
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The fact that Satoshi:
1) published the Bitcoin white paper before he launched it,
2) kept it on track for 2 years with upgrades,
3) disappeared without ever spending his own coins for profit, and
4) had such skill that people can't prove his identity,
is... remarkable.
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One reason I like reading the writings of Satoshi Nakamoto, whoever he was, is that there is zero hype in anything he wrote.
He was the complete opposite of lambos, shills, flexing, or false promises.
He undersold and then overdelivered.
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It's a good idea to follow some people you disagree with. Otherwise you risk ending up in an echo chamber.
Resist the temptation to tribalize and segment yourself, and instead focus on building connections and strength-testing your ideas.
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The Matrix was the best movie of the past 25 years.
Change my mind.
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"ESG investing" in its current form is similar to people who take selfies of themselves in fancy locations to show they were there, while barely experiencing it for real.
Mostly theater, little substance.
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New profile pic. My prior one is three years old now, so it's time for an update. This new one was taken in April 2022.
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People from Nigeria, Ethiopia, Senegal, Togo, Venezuela, and Afghanistan keep telling me here in person how they use bitcoin to deal with authoritarian bank control or persistent inflation that continually wrecks their savings.
While westerners on Twitter say it’s useless.
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In the future, the idea of central policymakers purposely creating more unemployment as the primary way to contain inflation might be seen as the economics equivalent of bloodletting in medicine.
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Proof-of-Stake is legacy tech. It's what corporations and banks have run on for centuries.
It's outdated and oligopolistic. And yet, still useful for centralized systems.
Proof-of-Work is the new innovation, especially when combined with difficulty adjustments.
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If you are excited by bitcoin pumping in price, take a chill pill. You did this last cycle. Don't count every $1k please.
If you are confused by why bitcoin is pumping, spend a couple hundred hours on it. It's bigger than you think and institutional capital now understands this.
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Elon Musk criticized anti-censorship views, and then censored tweets more arbitrarily than the prior leadership did.
Meanwhile, Musk won’t criticize Xi Jinping due to his own economic interests in China, while he criticizes the West.
Ask Elon’s views on Uyghurs on the public…
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Every couple months I randomly check Japan tourist arrivals, say "alrighty then" and go back to working.
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Maybe it will reverse tomorrow, but it's kind of remarkable that a week into a significant geopolitical/military event, bitcoin is outperforming gold.
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When I was a kid, I used to get bullied at bus stops and schooling grounds. Rough neighborhood. Trailer park.
Unlike many wimpy parents, my father said, "if someone hits you, hit them back harder so they never do it again."
He sent me to martial arts school, age 6, every day.
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@crypto
@opinion
I'm a huge fan of most Bloomberg content but this opinion article by
@matt_levine
is really bad. I respect most divergent opinions but it's written either as propaganda or from the perspective of someone who has never actually sent a bitcoin transaction.
For example:
"So if you…
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Nassim I've not bashed you or said anything negative about you.
I critiqued the set of arguments in your recent paper, not the author behind the paper, or your other works. I haven't used ad hominem remarks against you, although you have against me.
@VukasinPekovic
@ad_mip
@MaxGroucho1
@LynAldenContact
@MacroAlf
@EPBResearch
Fucking peabrain, Your Lyn is the one bashing; do you want me to turn the other cheek?
Imbecile.
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It seems rare these days, but remember it is possible to agree with someone in one area, disagree with them in another area, and go on with your life while respecting the other person.
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Years ago, The Narrow Bank tried to do a business model of just taking deposits and holding 100% of them in reserves at the Fed.
It would basically be the safest possible bank if allowed to exist, but they have not been granted a Fed account. They even went to court over it.
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The numbers are in. The Fed's balance sheet increased by nearly $300 billion last week.
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Some of the bitcoin bears on my timeline tweet more about bitcoin than the bitcoin bulls on my timeline do.
I can't imagine hating an asset so much that I relentlessly tweet about it hundreds of times.
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Great news: if we exclude most of the essentials of life (shelter, food, energy, and the second-hand ability to get to work), then price inflation is back down to a 2% annual growth rate.
🙈🙊🙉
An inflation update: in the past I've focused on a measure that excludes lagging shelter and used cars as well as food and energy. Just to note that it adds to the evidence that inflation has been largely defeated
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Custodial financial services allow governments to freeze accounts first, and then sort out who is guilty or innocent later.
Self-custodial financial services force governments to actually charge people with a crime before they can use pressure to freeze their accounts.
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The first rule of economic policy is to make sure you do not run into acute energy shortages.
The second rule of economic policy is to make sure you do not run into acute energy shortages.
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And then Starbucks comes and market sells the clown-bucks they were holding, while reminding the market that clown-bucks aren't really a thing.
McDonald's balance sheet is trashed, with their clown-bucks wiped out.
Anyway, that's what happened in crypto-land this week.
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My new book, Broken Money, is now available on Amazon.
Paperback and hardcover versions are currently available, with ebook and audiobook versions on the way. It'll also be available through other distribution partners soon as well:
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It's really simple.
Elon is afraid of competition. He's a cowardly cuck.
He doesn't build things; he finds things that are already built and decides to market them.
And he suppresses competition and labor, while taking orders from the CCP, like a cuck.
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If you bought a 5-year Treasury note this time last year (yielding around 0.35% at the time), the rise in CPI in one year already outpaced all five years of the interest payments you will receive.
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@jimmy_wales
One of the most heartbreaking emails I got was from a Lebanese doctor who lost 95% of their net worth due to hyperinflation, because they held it in banks/currency.
They were too busy being a doctor rather than a hands-on investor on the side as well, assuming the money is safe.
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@elonmusk
@SwipeWright
Speaking of free speech, do you have any particular thoughts on China's latest protests?
You haven't mentioned China on Twitter since July.
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If you don't need to eat, use energy, or need some sort of home, then inflation is declining.
So there's that.
Core inflation (defined to exclude food, energy & shelter) is declining already.
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The separation of money and state seems like a radical concept, but so did separation of church and state a few centuries ago. Such a thought would be considered outlandish then.
A brief thread.🧵
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Some bitcoiners consider me a "boomer" because I own diversified assets.
Some traditional investors consider me "avant garde" because I recommended bitcoin at sub-$7k.
Works for me both ways. I'm just an analyst that analyzes various assets over time.
#BTC
is a solid asset.
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People who delete tweets are not serious people.
It's fine to delete in the first couple minutes due to typos and so forth, but if you write something that ends up being wrong and later delete it, you should not be trusted.
Immortalize your errors. Learn from them.
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I don’t know what it will do over the next year, but the asset I am most interested in over the next decade remains
#bitcoin
.
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My biggest side project over the past year has been working on a book about the history of monetary technologies and the current technological shortcomings of the global monetary system.
It's coming out soon. When I have a firm date available I'll let you know.
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Bank in Canada won’t let customer withdraw cash
they ask him to prove why he needs cash
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I unknowingly tweeted macroeconomic content during key moments of World Cup finals and semi-finals, so my vow today is not to do the same during the Super Bowl.
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To quantify it, US banks have $17.6 trillion in deposits, of which $3.1 trillion is backed up by cash, of which less than $100 billion ($0.1 trillion) is backed up by physical cash.
Anyway, good evening.
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It gets posted a lot but this remains one of the most important charts in the world, imo.
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The Central Bank of Brazil front-ran the Fed and raised interest rates from 2% to 14% since the start of last year.
This ain't their first inflation rodeo.
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Fact check: Bitcoin consumes a small fraction of 1% of global power today compared to the WEF's 2017 statement that it would consume all of it by now.
A lot of these estimates and articles unfortunately come from folks who don't understand how Bitcoin works.
In 2020 Bitcoin will consume more power than the world does today
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Satoshi combined a number of existing technologies (the internet, Merkle trees, proof-of-work, SHA-256), added some tech of his own, and made something innovative. A breakthrough in accounting and money.
What followed in his wake was mostly scams. But his is innovation is real.
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The
#Bitcoin
side of my feed has tremendous comment liquidity- I write something about it and get an *immediate* response by the hundreds or more.
Bear/Bull- I haven't seen this in years. It's different than sentiment; it's volume. Comment numbers, broadly.
Here's a thread. 🧵
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1) Kill your ego.
2) Kill your ideology, but not your goals.
3) Build a new framework, but an open and flexible one.
4) Ask questions and deal with people you agree with and disagree with. Approach disagreement as a way to learn.
Hardly anybody does this, in any discipline.
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People who have a 30-year mortgage that is lower than what they now earn in their money market fund.
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Japan to approve $110bn stimulus package to fight inflation
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@greenpeaceusa
It's unfortunate that Greenpeace went from irrelevant to directly harmful. But here we are.
Your corporate funding is harmful and embarrassing. I encourage you to try to do better.
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Most people who who dislike bitcoin haven't held it. They see it as a price chart in their brokerage, like QQQ.
They haven't brought the asset into self custody, and then brought it with them as they went around the world.
No wonder they view it as a random correlation.
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He can do what he wants with his property, but imo "X" is a noticeably worse logo than the uplifting chirping blue bird we've had for more than a decade and a half.
It looks more like adult content than social or financial content. I find these logos de-energizing:
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Commodities don't need to wait for a group of paid developers to allow them to be unstaked.
Securities do.
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My savagery is proportional to hypocrisy and bad marketing.
Restricting competitors and restricting even people talking about competitors = weak sauce.
The pro free speech schtick is a marketing thing. Not a real position. It is therefore fair to mock it.
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In a bit of irony, the company FICO that develops and maintains the FICO credit score model for people, has junk-rated corporate debt.
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Terra's multi-billion dollar algorithmic stablecoin UST blew up today.
Aside from destroying the value of $LUNA, they used their bitcoin reserves to try to defend the peg, kind of like a flailing emerging market using its gold reserves to defend its FX.
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Assuming that a house, food, healthcare, tuition, childcare, and commodities are not a big part of your budget (?), then CPI may have been a reasonably accurate measure of inflation over the past three decades.
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One of the most interesting ways to visualize bitcoin's adoption is via a polar coordinates chart, such as
@clockwork_parts
has done.
The logarithmic radius represents bitcoin's price, while the angle represents time.
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Thus, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies aren't really about "avoiding the law" but rather are about putting the onus on governments to act within the law, and giving individuals more mobility options when governments begin to change the law in a way that trends away from liberty.
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There have been countless articles and books written about bitcoin, but I don't think anyone has managed to describe the concept better than Nakamoto himself did back in February 2009:
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“So there are only 21 fully diluted million bitcoins, and now some of the biggest asset managers in the world are starting to aggressively compete to get some small fraction of the tens of trillions of dollars of walled garden managed assets into them.”
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Every once in a while it's good to take a step back and check to make sure you're not the villain.
Many villains become as they are via good intentions.
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Asking which fiat currency will replace the dollar as the global reserve currency is asking the wrong question.
Having a single country's fiat currency/bond at the heart of the global reserve system was the anomaly to begin with.
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Bitcoin hodlers:
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A lot of people are caught up with bullishness on a potential bitcoin ETF, meanwhile FinCEN is proposing to apply section 311 of the Patriot Act against basically all types of crypto privacy, including on noncustodial methods.
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This is a long pattern now. Rather than continue using their dollar surpluses to keep buying US Treasuries and finance US deficits like they used to, China now makes dollar loans to developing countries that, if defaulted on, give China the infrastructure.
China to take over Uganda’s Entebbe International Airport for default on debt repayment.
China has rejected Uganda's request to re-negotiate toxic clauses in the $200m loan picked six years ago for the Airport expansion.
The Airport is the only Intl Airport in the country.
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As
@LawrenceLepard
has often said, the red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line. See the problem?
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The global financial system runs on human consensus. That's how we got to where we are now.
Using physics/energy (proof of work) to come to consensus is an innovation. It should be explored.
Using human opinions (proof of stake) to come to a consensus is to repeat.
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When a country messes up its currency, they almost never say "look, we messed up".
Instead they usually blame speculators, foreign powers, or other things outside of their control, and start increasing their capital controls to try to enforce fake exchange rates.
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So
@CaitlinLong_
of Custodia Bank warned regulators about the risk of specific bank runs months ago.
Meanwhile, her bank applied for Fed access and wanted to have 108% of customer deposits in reserve (able to withstand a full bank run) and the Fed wouldn't give them access.
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Exxon Mobil $XOM has $30 billion in cash equivalents that adjust higher with rate hikes, and has $37 billion in long-duration fixed rate debt locked in at low rates.
Their assets earn more interest than they pay on their liabilities, and that spread improves the higher rates go.
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Commercial bank deposits are backed by central bank reserves and government bonds.
Government bonds are backed by the central bank's ability to create reserves and buy those government bonds if needed.
Cascading sovereign bond problems are at the core of the system.
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Enormous sitting inventory is bullish?
This is why there is no
#2
. Just look at all of these cars coming out of Giga Shanghai ready to be exported. FYI, these aren’t hot wheels, these are new Tesla Model 3s. Tesla is absolutely dominating.
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Bitcoiners are a polarizing group among broader Twitter, but it's actually a great set of people for the most part when you get to know the ecosystem and the various individuals, imo.
Disagreeable in aggregate, perhaps. But principled.
Meanwhile, I see this happening:
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When it comes to comparisons, the simplest test for a country's authoritarianism ultimately comes down to one thing.
Either you can go to a public square and repeatedly shout insults and criticisms towards your political leaders without getting arrested, or you can't.
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1) What
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Bullish at the $16k bottom, still bullish at $72k amid the recovery.
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