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@concodanomics
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Global market mechanics. Male. STIR & market plumbing enjoyer. Serious works can be found via . Writing a (hand)book. Not financial advice.
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Joined August 2018
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Pinned Tweet
new sub post up: The Repo Market Exodus
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The U.S dollar is wreaking havoc globally, and it's only just starting to pick up momentum. You'd have thought by now that other nations would have bailed from its hegemony. But in reality, there's no way out... 1/
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crypto dot com CEO tweeting he'll reveal only assets not liabilities for full transparency
it's over
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Bond markets are growing increasingly unstable, and many have warned of a "sovereign debt crisis" unfolding. But monetary leaders now possess numerous tools to prevent a disaster. The Great Sovereign Debt Intervention™ is upon us... 1/
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when you’re giga-long crude oil futures but accidentally take delivery
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After a pandemic and multiple financial crises, we've finally entered a lengthy period of rising interest rates. But while most are aware of the ominous outcomes this could create, those who know how the Fed actually controls rates will gain an edge in predicting the future... 1/
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*U.N. CALLS ON FED, OTHER CENTRAL BANKS TO HALT INTEREST-RATE INCREASES: WSJ
wow
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It turns out Binance is using the same auditor as FTX
Even better, they don't do actual audits
I'm sure it's fine
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Fears of another liquidity crisis have entered the mainstream, with many people guessing what will cause the next financial upheaval. Right now, all triggers have been suppressed, but not for long. The Great Liquidity Squeeze™ is upon us... 1/
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The Great Financial Tightening has thrown the global monetary system into disarray, prompting large interventions by financial leaders. Markets perceived their response as a pivot, but it was just a stopgap. The real hard landing now awaits us... 1/
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The Federal Reserve has initiated the ultimate rug pull, but trillions in excess liquidity has stemmed any major turmoil. Yet eventually, the Fed will not only need to intervene but expand its operations globally to preserve the status quo... 1/
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The most critical shift in finance has been playing out behind the scenes: The power to price trillions of dollars in financial assets, once held by bankers, is almost in the hands of the Federal Reserve. Now, its powers are set to increase... 1/
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After the most euphoric January in recent history, hopes of a new bull market have arisen. But the latest market bonanza has set the stage for increased intervention. The Great Financial Tightening™ is about to begin... 1/
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The banking panic is almost over, yet the Fed has already resumed the Great Financial Tightening. This will not only induce another credit crunch but boost the Fed’s global presence. The Jaws of the Fed™ are about to be unleashed... 1/
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Since crypto has hit the mainstream, we've witnessed an overload of "Ponzi whataboutisms", attempts to justify crypto Ponzi schemes by comparing them to various other "things".
There's an easy way to identify a Ponzi scheme...
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After easing financial conditions via a series of covert actions, monetary leaders can no longer pretend to tighten. The dark side of Quantitative Tightening (QT) has been unleashed, not by the Fed itself, but by the U.S. Treasury. The Stealth Liquidity Squeeze™ is here... 1/
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The excess cash era is ending, with trillions of reserves once trapped in the Fed's RRP being deployed into financial assets and the banking system. As the RRP hits zero, the status quo in repo markets will transform. The return to an "excess collateral" era awaits us... 1/
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After neutralizing trillions in excess liquidity, the Fed’s “shock absorber” has begun to decompress. $2 trillion stored in the RRP is trying to re-enter the banking system, further threatening the US central bank's tightening stance. The Fed's Plumbing Dilemma™ is here... 1/
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*THE DECENTRALAND METAVERSE HAD 20 ACTIVE USERS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
lmao
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The liquidity drain has begun, with hundreds of billions in reserves set to leave the system. But this reduction could not only fail to subdue risk assets. A squeeze in a covert market will allow the Fed to ease, again without a pivot. The Repo Market Put™ awaits us... 1/
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The most anticipated liquidity drain from markets is here, with many headlines foreseeing turbulence ahead. Yet, its effects might not deliver the impact many believe. Hidden forces have emerged, acting against a liquidity squeeze. The “Transitory Pause” is here... 1/
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Markets continue to tumble as liquidity wanes, but trillions of dollars remain in the system, preventing unrest in stocks and credit markets. Instead, major turmoil is more likely to emerge in America's sovereign bond market... 1/
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The Great Sovereign Debt Intervention is here, with leaders now eager to prevent rising instability in America's bond market. Their tools, however, will not only prevent a calamity but stimulate risk assets without the aid of central banks. The "Treasury QE" era awaits us... 1/
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Monetary leaders are about to uncover the inner workings of an obscure $2 trillion market, the most opaque ecosystem within the U.S. dollar funding complex. This, however, is not the much-hyped Eurodollar system. The Repo Market Blindspot™ is about to be unveiled... 1/
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I'd say Binance was insolvent, but when their financials are leaked we may need a new definition. The variety of Ponzi is so unprecedented that they may have created a new form of balance sheet.
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*Hong Kong-based crypto exchange AAX suspends all operations for at least seven days, due to "system upgrades"
it's over
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If gold “goes to zero” it’s still useful.
If oil “goes to zero” it’s still useful.
If Bitcoin “goes to zero” it doesn’t matter, because 1 BTC = 1 BTC.
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After a year of neutralizing losses on banks’ underwater assets, the Federal Reserve’s BTFP is about to expire. But the U.S. central bank is not only about to commence an “emergency phaseout”. It's about to devise the latest version of its primary rescue mechanism... 1/
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An unreported battle has been brewing deep in the most critical market globally, a struggle for power within America's sovereign debt market. Now, after recent events, this battle is approaching its most critical moment... 1/
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Before twitter collapses i’d like to say a few words...
Elon Musk did not found Tesla
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Basically, Sam Bankman-Fried bails out all the systemically important crypto banks and forms an entity to oversee them, which will provide emergency loans at discounted rates in times of extraordinary stress.
Kinda like a central bank.
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For years now, the crypto ecosystem has fed us a constant stream of hype about a coming "revolution", in which crypto will replace corrupt institutions and the power-hungry elite that controls them.
But nothing could be further from the truth. The opposite is occurring... 1/
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it seems your extinction-level event at the Bank of Japan was already priced in, Mr. Bond
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While rumors of the dollar losing its dominance have been spreading quickly, behind the scenes, monetary leaders have been taking steps to strengthen its global hegemony. Now, with the Fed’s Final Frontier™ in operation, the dollar’s grip has grown stronger than ever... 1/
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this is Binance's "Proof of Reserves" audit
are you kidding me?
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After decades of enabling runaway speculation, Chinese leaders have deflated a once-giant shadow banking system without widespread turmoil. But as the global economy begins to stall, China’s elite may encounter a resurgence of monetary alchemy in the shadows... 1/
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this graph shows insider buying/selling at Tesla
notice the big red blob?
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The most significant shift in global finance is almost complete. By moving onto a secured standard, monetary leaders have tried to destroy systemic risk. But risk has only been transferred, not eliminated. The Fed's Volatility Suppressor™ is about to be unleashed... 1/
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Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, multi-marketing scheme, and pyramid scheme, all combined into one perpetual zero-coupon bond of societal, monetary, and environmental destruction.
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Despite the Federal Reserve’s stealth easing programs persisting, dollar strength has begun to accelerate. Yet as liquidity drains, the world's response will not be to de-dollarize but to seek more dollar liquidity. The Fed’s global swap network is set to expand... 1/
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The Terra/Luna demise was not crypto’s Lehman Moment. It was the two Bear Stearns subprime funds going belly up beforehand. The real Lehman is Tether.
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it's not QE
it's a stopgap before another rug pull
let it be known as Quantitative Teasing™
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hawkish data = bullish
dovish data = bullish
negative revisions = also bullish
hope that helps
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*Bitcoin worth $1.5B withdrawn from Coinbase in 48 hours: Glassnode
“Scheduled maintenance” incoming
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A risky, elaborate trade, one infamous for blowing up everytime, is growing in popularity in the world’s most systemic bond market. When turmoil inevitably emerges, only the Fed’s volatility suppressor can come to the rescue. The Treasury Market Unwind™ is looming... 1/
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After numerous episodes, monetary leaders have unveiled measures to fortify the U.S. Treasury market. The internals of the most systemically important market, already undergoing rapid change, will once again transform. The Treasury Market Evolution™ is about to begin... 1/
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The Fed doesn't seem to care much that additional interest rate rises will inflict significant pain on the rest of the world. In a move that will likely make the history books, the United Nations warned the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates further...
*U.N. CALLS ON FED, OTHER CENTRAL BANKS TO HALT INTEREST-RATE INCREASES: WSJ
wow
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Right now, the consensus belief is that global liquidity has been deteriorating rapidly, and intervention by the Federal Reserve will come shortly when "something breaks". But since nobody can decide what that "something" might be, this shows fear remains in its early innings...
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Crypto is neither decentralized, efficient, immutable, tamper-proof, anonymous, sustainable, nor liberating.
It's a giant carbuncle of Ponzi scams. Pure and simple.
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ZeroHedge went from hyperinflationary disaster to mega- deflationary recession faster than any shitcoin rug pull.
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Bitcoin is a great inflation hedge, because it's down 40% during the most substantial inflationary period in decades. It's just math.
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*COINBASE WILL BE "TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN" ITS US AFFILIATE-MARKETING PROGRAM NEXT WEEK DUE TO "CRYPTO MARKET CONDITIONS."
i.e running out of fiat
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In response, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell responded with a resounding "no", prioritizing the Fed's domestic anti-inflation agenda over the financial health of emerging nations. These are countries starting to again feel the burden of living in the U.S dollar hegemony...
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hawkish data = bullish
dovish data = also bullish
hope that helps
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imagine you close your China fund and the next day Xi goes full bazooka
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The average person doesn't give a damn about cryptocurrency. For them, Visa and the U.S dollar work fine. This is a pretty simple reason why Bitcoin won't catch on.
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With record-high consumer loans, commercial loans, wage growth, and net worths, plus trillions of dollars of liquidity still swashing around the financial system, the infamous Fed Pivot™ remains a pipe dream...
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“guys, guys, we should get off the U.S dollar”
“cool, let's sell our U.S dollar reserves and buy some Euro and Yuan”
“oh wait, it turns out we’re now short of dollars because most people want them”
“better buy some more dollars then”
the end
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Elon Musk is not the greatest entrepreneur of all time but the freak outcome of reckless monetary policy, misallocation of capital, and the normalization of vaporware. He's everything that's wrong with the status quo.
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Monetary giants have united to transform the largest, most opaque financial system on the planet: the market for foreign exchange. This has not only reduced the power of dominant players but rewired the global monetary plumbing. The FX Market Evolution™ is here... 1/
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there are a bunch of exchanges that are practically insolvent, but their own self-issued Ponzi tokens (which create the illusion of solvency) have yet to implode. these are almost exact copies of FTX’s FTT token. collapse is guaranteed.
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