Bill Gurley
@bgurley
Followers
666,726
Following
1,565
Media
533
Statuses
12,364
VC @benchmark , Investor: @grubhub , @zillow , @uber , @stitchfix , @nextdoor , @glassdoor , @hacker0x01 , @solvhealth , @roverdotcom , @instawork Trustee @sfiscience
Joined April 2007
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Vinicius
• 85526 Tweets
Neuer
• 70968 Tweets
Gaga
• 70037 Tweets
Natalie Elphicke
• 59093 Tweets
Chromatica
• 57334 Tweets
Bruno Mars
• 54969 Tweets
ANTT
• 53977 Tweets
Marseille
• 53172 Tweets
Suki
• 50739 Tweets
Gazzede SoykırımaDurDe
• 47505 Tweets
Mother's Day
• 46737 Tweets
Steve Albini
• 45275 Tweets
Gunna
• 41009 Tweets
#RMAFCB
• 36481 Tweets
Santiago Bernabéu
• 34313 Tweets
Piers Morgan
• 28657 Tweets
#EuroLeague
• 28603 Tweets
Fenerbahçe Beko
• 21570 Tweets
Kimmich
• 21001 Tweets
نوير
• 19824 Tweets
Big Black
• 19693 Tweets
البايرن
• 16963 Tweets
#RMABAY
• 13403 Tweets
Fiorentina
• 12146 Tweets
Vamos Madrid
• 10685 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
In my talk, I referenced an important 1994 interview w/ Daniel Moynihan in
@latimes
. He expresses regret that a law he signed created today's homeless problem, & recommends legislators have own version of Hippocratic Oath "first do no harm."
2,851 Miles by
@bgurley
from the
@allinsummit
now available in full on
@x
(0:00) 2,851 Miles
(24:44) In conversation with
@bgurley
269
2K
7K
137
317
2K
An entire generation of entrepreneurs & tech investors built their entire perspectives on valuation during the second half of a 13-year amazing bull market run. The "unlearning" process could be painful, surprising, & unsettling to many. I anticipate denial. Some thoughts:
499
3K
20K
If you told me 10 years ago that a group of the smartest engineers in the land would evoke the threat, "Do what I say or I will go to work at Microsoft," I would not have believed you. Amazing shift in corporate reputation (and much credit to Satya).
151
1K
12K
100%. I’m on team Chuck. Blind support of a political party (on both sides) is our key problem.
We’re all humans. Shout out to Charles Barkley for hitting the national audience with the truth.
712
8K
40K
105
625
8K
Having survived two previous market resets (2001, 2009), people frequently ask me how this 2022 market reset is different and how it is the same. The obvious similarity is that valuation multiples have collapsed. We went from a "glass very full" mindset to one with many concerns.
1
1K
8K
As people come to terms with the weight of our new environment, they are slowly beginning to realize how radically things have changed. One area in particular that has changed - the required level of "corporate performance" needed to simply survive (let alone thrive). 🧵
145
528
6K
Let's be candid. If you believe in business & capitalism, then there are zero circumstances where the government should bail out equity holders. $GM and $GS were mistakes. If the gov't is the lender of last resort, they should own all of the equity. I invest in equity as my job.
186
739
5K
I am living through my third “reset” in Silicon Valley. Reputations are built in hard times, not the easy times. If you shake a hand, sign your name - stand strong, or your word is no good. Otherwise you are a transient that only wanted the easy take. And you should move on.
86
566
4K
1) Previous "all-time" highs are completely irrelevant. It's not "cheap" because it is down 70%. Forget those prices happened.
2) Valuation multiples are always a hack proxy. Dangerous to use. If you insist, 10X should be considered AMAZING and an upper limit. Over that silly.
74
351
4K
If someone older than you with business experience is giving you advice on navigating tough times please listen & don’t argue. Good judgement comes from experience that comes from bad judgment. They used to have the same perspective you do. That’s why they are trying to help.
93
586
4K
This is also why everyone rooting for Twitter to “functionally fail” are going to be disappointed. The company had 1,000 employees in 2012 and had 200 MAUs. And the systems are way better now. If they go back to that count they will survive. You are NOT seeing the “fail whale.”
2
340
4K
3) You may be shocked to learn that people want to value your company on FCF and earnings. Facebook trades at 14X GAAP EPS, & is growing 23%. What earnings multiple are you assuming?
4) Revenue & earnings QUALITY matter.
75
338
4K
I totally agree with this. Whatever your politics is, we cannot ignore the past three hundred years of economic research and understanding. People argue they are on the side of “science.” Let’s use the education we all have. Please.
Ouch. Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this. It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics.
23K
29K
180K
0
413
4K
We should 100% decouple healthcare from employment. It's a ridiculous added layer of bureaucracy that makes the market less efficient, & separates the buyer further from the provider. The US is alone with this model, & clearly alone in HC inefficiency.
118
630
3K
Ironic that one of the tenants in crypto is you don’t need to trust anyone because it’s all “on chain.” Yet everyone that lost money in FTX (both customers and investors) deviated from that construct. Neither FTX investments or customer assets were “on chain.” (More).
2
405
3K
One of the reasons companies routinely do 3 layoffs instead of one is they are almost all afraid to “cut too much.” They fear “hitting bone.” But they VASTLY underestimate how resilient companies actually are. Companies endure. (More).
1
235
3K
This past fall, I had the opportunity to give at presentation at
@UTexasMcCombs
on the topic of pursuing your "dream job." Many years in the making, I hope it is helpful to those that are navigating their career journey.
387
472
3K
That is quite ironic.
Plaintiff lawyers: Elon Musk was overpaid.
Also Plaintiff lawyers: We’d like to be paid $6 billion in fees.
118
311
2K
96
205
3K
Thanks to
@friedberg
&
@theallinpod
for inviting me to speak. One key phrase from Stigler is so important, "... leading to a net loss for society." It's not just that these lobby efforts have undo influence, its that this influence causes specific harm to society.
2,851 Miles by
@bgurley
from the
@allinsummit
now available in full on
@x
(0:00) 2,851 Miles
(24:44) In conversation with
@bgurley
269
2K
7K
165
299
3K
Just listened to
@RepDeanPhillips
on X Spaces. Shocked to learn he is blocked from ballot in multiple states. Surprised this isn’t key topic on Sunday morning news especially when Biden/DNC constantly insist that “democracy is on the ballot in 2024.” Massive hypocrisy.
203
335
3K
This is wild.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to board members:
"If OpenAl disappeared tomorrow, we have all the IP rights and all the capability. We have the people, we have the compute, we have the data, we have everything. We are below them, above them, around them."
Wow.
220
906
5K
134
240
2K
Is it fair to say that U.S. social media apps are "already" banned in China? Or is that an unfair statement for some reason?
India banned nearly 60 Chinese mobile apps, including TikTok, citing national security concerns, after their militaries clashed earlier this month
149
377
1K
46
379
2K
100% agree with this article, & have voiced this opinion my whole career. The vast majority of entrepreneurs should NOT take venture capital. Why? Article nails it: it is a binary "swing for the fences" exercise. Bootstrapping more likely to lead to individual financial success.
59
478
2K
Best time in 15 years to start a company. Right now.
This may be a great time to launch a start-up, according to venture capitalist Bill Gurley
@bgurley
.
Here's why ➡️
@benchmark
19
134
561
2
385
2K
Fortunate to meet
@JeffBezos
early in my career. No idea I was about to witness the most spectacular CEO run of my lifetime. Unquestionably the most strategic business thinker I have ever met. Also uniquely able to turn those strategies into processes that scale. Undisputed GOAT.
2
110
2K
All leaders should strive for and be held accountable for intellectual consistency.
42
268
2K
A lesson I have learned many times in my 20 years as a marketplace investor is that aggregating demand is the one & only key. Aggregating supply is not the hard part, & having differentiated supply or thinking because you own supply you can enter the market is misplaced thinking.
43
336
2K
The entire healthcare system vilified salt and fat while ignoring the real killer. Worse, as salt and fat were removed, more sugar was inserted. Turns out "all the experts" can get it wrong simultaneously.
71
888
2K
In light of the fact that the US leads the world in health care costs as a % of GDP without better outcomes, I would love to hear the argument from someone in pharma why we should be OK that we pay multiples of the same price in other countries for the same drug?
So the fattest country on the list charges 10x what the skinny countries charge for Ozempic and wegovy?
431
180
1K
271
277
2K
With over 20 years of investing I can safely say that most teams assume their competition is stupid rather than smart. Probably not the optimal approach.
51
310
2K
Unfortunately, you can't "wish away" the fact that if your company isn't cash flow positive & capital is now expensive, you are living on borrowed time. "Culture" won't matter if your company isn't around. Sorry to say it, but these realities are ... realities. Hard to swallow.
1
222
2K
"Good times become good memories and bad times become good lessons in life." - Unknown
"Hard times are sometimes blessings in disguise. We do have to suffer but in the end it makes us strong, better and wise." - APR
1
235
2K
Enjoyed e106 of
@theallinpod
. On FTX, I think they nailed a few important things:
1) Contradiction between smartest man in the room (pre) & "aw-shucks I don't know much" (post)
2) Sophistication of the corporate org (in size, scope, etc) also inconsistent with "aw-shucks" (cont)
1
127
2K
This is simple, accurate, and succinct. The data and science are clear. The blockers are political. And a generation of kids are paying the price. Their is a victim in this political battle - children. And it's really sad.
The timetable for opening schools should be dictated by science, not teachers unions. Data does not indicate
#COVID19
spikes in schools that are open. Schools that can safely reopen should do so.
553
481
4K
51
156
2K
Spent time on the phone this AM with a super-smart early-stage investor friend in China. Interesting to hear about so much innovation around social shopping & new e-commerce models. There are two missing pieces of the ecosystem in the U.S. that is slowing this type of innovation.
34
282
1K
I want to offer a 9-month late STRONG recommendation for entrepreneurs & executives at startups to read Range by
@DavidEpstein
. Deep inside, Range uncovers that most breakthroughs result from interdisciplinary or cross-functional learning/idea transfer.
32
144
1K
We are all very fortunate to live in a day and age where a person like
@BillGates
dedicates his vast fortune as well as his mind and time to solving the world’s largest problems.
1
101
1K
One last thing. FTX had no board of directors. Every single investor that opted into that construct earned their $0 outcome. You can’t blame Sam. Or Binance. Just yourself. You made a bad decision.
0
132
1K
Increasingly seems like we are entering a new reality in Unicorn land. If you have raised more than $250mm & are NOT public, the presumption is you are losing WAY too much money, and you probably have shitty unit economics. And probably need to do a lay-off (like Oyo & others).
40
243
1K
You can frequently read articles referencing VC "dry powder" and inferring that these large dollar amounts are "burning a hole" in someone's pocket & will imminently find their way to the market. I totally understand the assumption, but things don't really work this way. [cont]
New from
@nmasc_
:
Venture capitalists are awash in $271 billion in ‘dry powder,’ and the smaller checks many of them are writing to startups aren't denting it much
2
6
38
49
231
1K
This proves the point. Antigen tests in Germany are US$0.88 each. Here in US, Binax (the one vendor allowed to sell at $12 in entire country) is out of inventory. No one else approved. Our HC system is completely “captured.”
@bgurley
Prices for AG tests in Germany dropped to €.75 each at the supermarket Lidl. It’s fast, easy — and cheap to test every day.
#HealthForAll
14
106
186
59
397
1K
Interesting how NYTimes is framing "colleges are the new hotspot" narrative. Missing in the narrative is the astonishing fact that hospitalizations/death are miniscule. 88K cases, & a complete lack of severe cases. Isn't this shockingly positive? Wouldn't we have hoped for this?
In the past week, a New York Times survey found American colleges and universities recorded more than 36,000 additional coronavirus cases. The rising number underscores an emerging reality: College campuses have become hot spots for virus transmission.
107
281
459
95
179
1K
Extremely well written article on the shifting winds in tech. Important to realize that until subsidization stops, you have no idea if growth is real. The old adage is true, "the startup that sells $1 for $0.85" will have record setting growth. Healthy, difficult transition.
Discounts and freebies tech startups have used to lure customers have fallen out of favor as investors lose patience with failure to turn a profit. via
@WSJ
26
193
550
45
265
1K
Presentation tip for companies raising money: The middle "R" in ARR and MRR stands for "recurring." Unless you have a subscription model, it is inaccurate to label your revenue this way. Just say "annualized revenue."
33
123
1K
Hey
@Lorena
- During the lowest unemployment in your lifetime, millions of drivers voluntarily opted into this wage opportunity. Did they ask you to "fix" a problem? Or, are you solving a problem for your union donors, here they are for all to see, $ talks
Hey
@bgurley
- you don’t know me but I’m actually a Legislator now and have been since 2013. And yes, while you were standing up for & empowering Travis Kalanick, I was standing up for & empowering low wage workers.
96
24
181
66
109
1K
If you are railing against Trump’s presidential pardons, I would urge you to look at the pardon list of any of the last 6-7 presidents on both sides of the aisle. Ironically most of them are, shall we say, criminals? On this one, hate the game not the player. Stop the practice.
152
66
1K
Don't miss
@eugenewei
's spectacularly wonderful blog post, Status as a Service. I believe this is the new "textbook," perhaps the magnum opus on the subject of social networking. Ignore his teaching at your own peril.
9
252
1K
The greats, people like Bob Dylan and Bobby Knight and Danny Meyer, studied and idolized their predecessors. This modern finance world, where loud voices are disrespecting and dismissing people like Howard Marks and Warren Buffett is unsettling to me.
65
98
1K
The Datadog ($DDOG) IPO today was just another example of how the broken, hand-allocated IPO process results in a extremely large 1-day wealth transfer from the owners of the company to funds that have held the stock for less than 24 hours.
Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) priced 24.0mm shares at $27.00 ($1.00 above the upwardly-revised range) and opened at $40.35 for a gain of 49.1% at first trade. $DDOG
#IPO
0
7
33
53
264
1K
"Dark shadow over Silicon Valley" is inaccurate. Unlike 2001 & 2009, this pandemic so far has only hit a few sectors extremely hard, & just as many companies are seeing their results improve (Zoom, Discord, Nextdoor). The real dark shadow is over SMBs all over America, not S.V.
31
121
1K
If you find these perspectives cold or heretic, I have a thought exercise for you. Spend 51 minutes listening to
@patrick_oshag
interview Frank Slootman and imagine you are competing with his team at Snowflake. How do you like your odds?
1
102
1K
It’s like
@ycombinator
, but for chicken.
“According to Chick-fil-A, 60k people apply to be operators every year — and only ~80 are selected.
With a 0.13% acceptance rate, it’s harder to become a Chick-fil-A franchisee than it is to get into Stanford University (4.8%) or get a job at Google (0.23%).”
45
356
2K
26
109
1K
@JohnArnoldFndtn
It is more than misleading to refer to Buc-ee’s as a “gas station in rural Texas.”
20
7
1K
This “Tesla” podcast is interesting in its positioning. Claims “Tesla” hurt itself by going to China. Two HUGE items left out. First, if BYD is a challenge for Tesla it’s a MASSIVE challenge for Ford/GM. This is never discussed. 2nd, Elon always said he wanted Tesla to kick…
88
97
1K
Would love to see Biden put Mitt in charge of Vaccine distribution. It would promote bi-partisanship and solve the problem.
Sen. Mitt Romney slams vaccine distribution roll out: "As incomprehensible as it is inexcusable"
97
161
1K
0
50
1K
I’ve seen what you describe. Growing aggressively to $100mm, and all of the sudden growth slows. It’s really painful.
In my experience, the number one reason this happens is fear of change. What ever set of variables led to the product/market fit that took you to $100mm become…
I keep hearing of so many startups doing like $100M+ is sales but growth stalled.
Cant raise more VC
Cant IPO
Hard to acquire
Really impressive top 1% of startups to reach that revenue but then it just becomes a life style business.
61
14
331
43
141
855
I invest in equity as a living, and I beg you - wipe the equity. The world otherwise is way worst off.
This. Save the business and the employees, but wipe the equity.
9
39
397
34
151
1K
Would recommend that all of those in the Unicorn ecosystem, or those considering it, read this. Times are changing:
60
730
1K
A wonderful 2020 Xmas present to the founders, employees, & investors at VC-backed startups. SEC just APPROVED the ability to add primary capital (fundraise) to a direct listing. It's very exciting to see the SEC enable innovation in this way. (more)
23
190
1K
Every day that iMessage fails to support Android users is another great day for Whatsapp. Long $FB.
73
58
1K
Interesting comparison because the Manhattan project certainly wasn’t a for profit company.
65
48
995
Wow! $ZM/
@zoom_us
earnings off the chart. Remember that $zoom is taking share from airlines & hotels. Lots of $$$. Wrote about it 25+ years ago, & somehow still missed
@ericsyuan
as an investment. 🤦♂️ Original post:
35
110
1K
For employees that have only known this world, the idea of layoffs or cost reduction (or being asked to come into the office) is straight up heresy. In many ways this is not their fault. Excess capital led to excessive showering of employee benefits and heightened expectations.
3
75
1K
Hypothesis - If the positive data on Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine is right, beds & ventilators are the wrong constraint - and then the whole approach might be different. Lots of positive data. Who can prove it doesn’t help? That’s the counter argument.
75
136
974
This will surprise no one, but it really doesn’t matter if VCs change cities. The real question is about entrepreneurs AND key functional executives (always a limiter for other markets). Money always travels.
33
54
1K
When you read or listen to Frank Slootman, it becomes quite apparent that there is a different gear well above the level where your company is currently executing. Easy to understand. Hard to emulate. This podcast excellent also:
Frank Slootman really is the business version of a Navy Seal.
And when a CEOs retirement prompts a $17 billion loss in market cap, it's worth understanding.
I reread his original 2018 Amp It Up essay & these were my favorite passages:
30
135
1K
33
90
978
Great to see intelligent people from both political parties acknowledge the critical role nuclear energy can play in solving climate change. We cannot get there without it. 🙌🏽🙏
37
123
989
In today's world, positive cash-flow matters & surviving requires out maneuvering your competitors. You need teammates that are ready to roll up their sleeves & get to work. Sadly, we may have conditioned a contingent of employees in a way that is incongruent with this mindset.
1
82
972
If you are running a company & believe strongly everyone should participate in stock ownership AND your primary "stock" compensation vehicle is zero-based RSUs AND a majority of your employees sell on vest date, you are fooling yourself. This is covert cash comp, not ownership."
71
69
963
If Sequoia will pay $400+ million to scale $ETH, maybe we should all just be long $ETH. No? Don’t want to overthink things.
1
110
962
If you are planning a RIF, & haven't executed yet, please see this as a lesson. RH did 9% in April, & and now 23%. 5-10% RIFs are "all of the pain, & none of the gain." And are FREQUENTLY followed by 20-30% RIFs later. If you are going to do it, try do do it only once.
56
79
961
Alternatively, the window of ultra-low interest rates that fueled the rise (now rising) was unprecedented in business history. This led to ample speculation. It also created valuations we are quite unlikely to revisit. People will have a hard time letting go of those prices.
1
64
944
This is an amazing realization. Investors poured in over $700mm and no one asks for audited financial statements. This is happening more and more in Silicon Valley. Companies are postponing audits & asking investors to waive audit requirements.
None of the Theranos investors, who invested more than $700 million with Holmes between late 2013 and 2015, had ever requested audited financial statements.
27
150
459
59
224
947
My favorite “go to market” hack - set paid marketing to $0.00. Instant creativity.
9/ Another good thought exercise which was suggested by
@bgurley
to Barton:
"figure out what you do if you were to spend zero money on advertising to launch the product"
1
12
167
23
85
949
What’s really happening in the background around AI regulation.
45
243
989
Good idea! And let’s do same for senate. But maybe 12 or 9 or 6.
House Democrats to introduce a bill setting an 18-year term limit for Supreme Court justices
118
289
2K
45
104
922
About a quarter of 16-year-olds had a driver’s license in 2017, down from nearly half in 1983.
67
261
903
Article misses the KEY point. Rapid antigen tests are a technical commodity. If US Govt wanted to ramp volume, they could have 25 makers (1 year ago), & they could allow foreign makers into market. The FDA approving only 1 vendor is the colossal mistake. They should cost $1.
Breaking News: The maker of a popular rapid test for Covid-19 destroyed inventory and laid off workers just weeks before a virus surge in the U.S. drove up demand for tests.
410
2K
3K
26
131
928
This is what happens when you “invest” with “credits” that allow you to goose your own revenues. As long as that is allowed, expect it to continue and expect way more. And expect a massive mess in the end.
Step aside Sand Hill Road, “MANG” is now the largest VC in town!
I dive into the implications of this phenomenon:
24
53
372
63
122
912
Despite if CA is pro/anti tech, SF has a wholly separate problem. Failed government experimental policy has created a combinatorial crime spree & drug addiction/distribution machine that is spiraling out of control. Founders offering "support" won't fix this. Policy is broken.
Tonight, for the fifteenth (15th) time in 18 months, and the 3rd time in 20 days, we are booking the same suspect at county jail for felony motor vehicle theft. This motorcycle, stolen yesterday, recovered by TL cops and returned to its very grateful owner tonight. See thread.
181
219
1K
32
100
868
If you care about fixing the problem of systematic racism and brutality wrt police you must understand the key enabler is the police union. Read all you can. And do all you can to block HR 1154. Read below.
21
177
880
As mentioned in my All-In Talk on regulatory capture, the companies that have raised $Bs in AI are using that money to fund a regulatory push that would "pull up the ladder" on competition that is fast on their heels. Pay attention. Read below from
@AndrewYNg
.
#stopAIcapture
24
138
879
Some encouragement to comment on $SNOW IPO. While it would be easy to do normal post wrt mispricing, it is important to understand what is different here from other IPOs. The most important data is broad (40 years of underpricing, 2020 worst year yet), vs. 1 company. [cont]
1
127
870
Due to jarring changes in the startup capital markets, many founders that run short of cash will try to irrationally maintain their past market capitalization. Despite public comps down 50%+, they will still insist on trying. Enter the "dirty term sheet." Which is a huge mistake.
38
131
869
Jason is right. We need to decouple healthcare from employment. Only country on G20 with this arrangement. Convoluted in many ways. Cadillac tax (in original ACA) would have helped. But long dead.
You can believe in free markets & also believe in public healthcare
Healthcare bundled w/employment is a NEGATIVE for capitalism because talent gets trapped at jobs they don't want/aren't best at--& employers then risk having a dysfunctional relationship with talent.
59
125
920
35
76
854
A massive hat-tip to
@sherylsandberg
on a simply unbelievable run as the COO at Facebook. The decision to join Facebook in 2008, & walk away from a soaring career at Google, was bold & contrarian & SMART. The vast majority of the $500B in market cap was built after she joined.
28
36
847
Thinking about emerging from SIP, I have two predictions about travel market. 1) Airbnb will rebound much quicker than traditional lodging, & 2) Camping will explode as an alternative to both. Should be hugely beneficial for (
@benchmark
investment).
56
77
839
Literally the smartest business nugget I have EVER heard. Status quo is always the default. And it will eventually kill you.
19
83
851