Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com
@fundstrat
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@fs_insight Head of Research @CNBC Contributor. FSInsight Premium Service: Wikipedia: Alma Mater @Wharton
New York, NY
Joined July 2014
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Enjoyed speaking 🗣️with the
@SquawkCNBC
team this am ⏰
- expecting "buy in May" given the big reset of April 🌧️☔️
- economy also no longer running "red hot" 🔥so Fed has room to cut ✂️
- good for small-caps $IWM tech $QQQ and
#Bitcoin
@JoeSquawk
@andrewrsorkin
@BeckyQuick
…
“I think inflation is going to cool pretty dramatically,” says Tom Lee of
@fundstrat
. “I don’t know when but it’ll be sometime in the second half of this year.”
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Just an observation, but if $BTC re-attains its all-time high this year, it is only 18-20 months from prior high.
When a market re-attains a high so quickly, one could argue the prior high was not a bubble after all.
Hmmmm
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I read the article which triggered the
@twitter
ban and I agree with
@zerohedge
contention that all of the information disclosed is publicly available from a website.
So I am not exactly clear why zero hedge is banned?!
Zero Hedge, which had more than 670,000 followers, was permanently suspended from Twitter
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Today is Easter, the happiest day of the year.
He is risen ✝️
He died for us. If Jesus Christ didn’t abandon us in his darkness, we know he is with us in our darkest days.
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My dad's birthday today.
Someone I admire most and best example "risk-takers" driving
#America
greatness
- came to USA 1962, barely speaking English
- but trained MD
- became a successful
#psychiatrist
I got my strengths from "mom + dad"
Pic of me tagging along to office
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Amazing 🤩
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Friends. I am on
#vacay
🏝️☀️🌊
- returning 1/8
- which is also fifth trading day of 2024
Good timing!
@FourSeasons
@FSLosCabos
#Wednesdayvibe
@fs_insight
$IWM
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CRYPTO: With SEC clarity yesterday on
#ETH
, 65% of the current crypto market cap is a “commodity” ($BTC $ETH $BCH $LTC). Seems like the roadmap for institutions to invest in crypto is becoming clearer...
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In most markets, a ‘new high’ is needed to confirm a breakout
But with
#bitcoin
, when it trades at a price seen only 3% of its history, this has confirmed a new high imminent. This makes crypto different.
This ‘3%’ is $10,000.
FOMO = $10,000
Currently $250 away from FOMO
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Face ripper
👇
“I think we could get something that could feel like a face ripper like we had in July,” says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee ahead of the October CPI report.
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We still see high probabilities of a rally into YE, favoring small-caps and financials and equal-weight S&P 500
- Primary reason is 65% of large-cap fund managers are missing their benchmark = chase stocks
- Fund managers buy "beaten down" and "shorted names" = HF short…
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Catch me on
@cnbc
@SquawkStreet
today at 10:30am ET
- doing interview 5 minutes before my flight boards from
#bogota
to
#medellin
First ever interview I have done literally next to the boarding gate 😂
@fs_insight
#tuesdayvibe
$IWM $SPY
Don't miss
@fundstrat
on
@SquawkStreet
TODAY at 10:30am ET! 🔥🙌🏻
Get daily market update videos, institutional-grade research, and stock lists from Tom Lee, only at FS Insight!💯☑️
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Y’all. Don’t bet against
@CathieDWood
of $ARKK
- one of the greatest investment minds I ever met
- great foresight and patience
ETF looks like it bottomed on Friday
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In case you missed it, Small caps could climb 50% in the next 12 months, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
@CNBC
$IWM
@CNBCClosingBell
@fs_insight
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Our firm raises
#ethereum
$ETH price objective to $10,500.
- yup
- see report from digital asset lead
@David_Grid
Get the “first word” at 👇
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Happy Easter! He is risen.
- He is our great hope
- wishing hope and blessings to you and your families
- also look forward to a time when we can all gather together
PS: wishing blessings and love even to the haters. 😉
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At the start of 2023, our call for a 25% gain was derided as impossible:
- consensus argued the logical in 2023 was a “hard landing” = stocks do bad
- we viewed inflation as transitory and Fed doing too much
Hence, our “radical” view completely opposite to anchored view of…
Tom Lee of
@fundstrat
gives the continued bull case for stocks as we head into the new year:
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Fake news. This is not what our firm said
Bitcoin Bull Tom Lee Predicted a $25,000 Milestone in December. His Firm Just Set a Target of $2,270 in Q1 2019
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Happy new year friends 🎊
Final thoughts on 2021:
- grow your wealth letting returns ‘compound’
- buy stocks that compound returns
- equity investing not a zero sum game
- everybody wins as long as one is ‘long term greedy’
PS: stop treating opposing views as heresy.
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In a period where:
—political tensions escalate between US and China,
—global equity markets fall sharply
—VIX largest spike in many months
—global yield curves flatten/invert
#bitcoin
has RISEN and >$6,000
Crypto showing its value as an uncorrelated asset.
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CRYPTO: we are launching 5 sector indices to track specific segments of the crypto market—commodities, platforms, exchanges, privacy and stable coins—these 5 represent 75% of crypto market cap
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My oldest child sent me these 🌹🌷today
- such a pleasant surprise! 😍
- she is so thoughtful and a wonderful human ❤️❤️🙏🙏🙏
Kids = best thing in life
@fs_insight
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Yup
👍
A violent upside stock market rally is coming before the end of the year says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
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Face ripper intact
👇
"There is so much money on the sidelines that the inflows into year-end are going to create a lot of market breadth," says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee after he predicted today's "face-ripper" rally on Wall Street.
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Tesla down -9% today, an eye popping 👀 decline on heels of quarterly results
- while it feels catastrophic, this merely ranks as the 31st 1-day decline for $TSLA
- did thesis end the other 30 times?
You know what that means…ultimately
#BTD
PS: it’s a
#grannyshot
…
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Great speaking with
@ScottWapnerCNBC
on
@CNBCClosingBell
- there is room for positive surprise in
#2024
#ThursdayMotivation
@fs_insight
“I’d say that stocks can do very well next year,” says
@fs_insight
’s Tom Lee. He shares his outlook for what’s to come in 2024:
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If you rage sold this past week, you sold the
#bottom
- bears 🐻 too confident of unstoppable inflation
- half of 50 metrics tracking factors of inflation are already negative YoY
Get the “first word” at
@fs_insight
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Dear angry bear 🐻
Brains 🧠 is not what makes a good investor
Instead, it’s understanding what angry Bears are doing
Please, DM me, your trading, so I can counter trade
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$TSLA strong 🦾
+13% after hours
$TSLA still a
#grannyshot
- near term,
@MarkNewtonCMT
doesn’t see it ‘tactically’ attractive
But the long term thesis intact
@fs_insight
#MondayMorning
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Taking a step back, with $BTC
#bitcoin
at new 2019 highs, don’t those old highs look like a few FOMO days away?
Crypto winter is over...
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CRYPTO: It’s a sign of a positive change in crypto that
#BTC
has essentially shrugged off the
#Winkelvoss
ETF rejection. If this took place in Apri-June (more bearish period), the crypto market would have seen a sizable sell-off. In short, affirming why technicals improving.
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Just my opinion, but I don’t think the
#Fed
is responsible for the surge in inflation
It was a messed up supply chain, coupled with huge fiscal stimulus, coupled with a bullwhip effect.
We know easy money has been around in Japan, and it never caused inflation
@ScottWapnerCNBC
…
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Wishing everyone a blessed Merry Christmas 🎄🎁
- Blessings upon everyone and joyous time with friends and family
✝️❤️
No one is really neutral about whether Christmas is true. If the Son of God was really born in a manger, then we have lost the right to be in charge of our lives.
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March
#CPI
disappointed +0.36% Core MoM no better than Feb +0.36%
- bar raised
#Fed
to cut
- but
#autoinsurance
soared +2.85% MoM, bulk of miss
PS: stocks fell each of last 3
#CPI
reports. 3 of 3 recovered by 6th trading day.
Similar now. Economy strong. Fed dovish. $6T of…
"It is going to push out the probability of a June cut, but, that being said, I don't think this entirely eliminates the possibility of a June cut," says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee after hot inflation data rattled the markets.
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CRYPTO: We hosted a small group of institutional investors on 4/23, mix of crypto and traditional macro HF/long-only. Results below. Key takeaway, institutions believe
#BTC
bottomed. We see this as a leading indicator for inflows of big money into Crypto
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I am not trying to trigger anyone, just wondering aloud:
- blizzards and heavy snow in Northeast, worst in a decade
- worst cold/snow across Texas in decades and even Pacific Northwest
...is this consistent with a “global warming” thesis?
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a🧵
1/2
For what its worth, the fact S&P 500 has spend 6 days >200D shows our "unpopular opinion" is arguably now central case:
- inflation hit a wall in Oct 2022
- Fed needs to course correct, possibly Feb FOMC
- stocks bottomed 10/12/2023
Looking more and more like Aug 1982
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There is a lot of profit taking on stocks today
and this is creating a lot of angst
- but S&P 500 has been relentlessly advancing
- its ok for the market to have a
#down
day
@fs_insight
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🔥🔥🔥🔥‼️‼️‼️‼️
👇
2024!
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Decided to take a Time Machine back to 70s to understand
#inflation
and culture
- focus on what is
#stagflation
😂
Hope everyone had a good weekend
#sundayvibes
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Merry Christmas 🎄 to all
I pray for peace and joy and healing in 2022. The pandemic wrought terrible tragedy to all of our lives.
The real message of
#christmas
is hope and joy ❤️😊
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I crossed 100K twitter followed in the past day.
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏😍😍😍😍
Thank you everyone for the follow!!!
Have a wonderful Saturday
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Please. Stop hating on
@CathieDWood
She has done more for spotlighting great ideas than anyone I know.
@itzstockchartz
@fundstrat
Cathie wood also thought it was a great idea to buy a clear fraud like workhorse. She’s wrong time to time like the rest of us
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Peeps. This is Max Meyers, senior executive producers
of
@CNBC
- Max is the first guy that put me on
@CNBC
on a regular slot
#StrategySession
- it all started with max
We are at Grassinis in Englewood Cliffs
@LastCallCNBC
@fs_insight
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A critical service delivered seamlessly because it literally transcends (“above”) global borders 👇
- my mind semi-blown
@elonmusk
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🧵🪡
Today is
#FatherDay
🥰
I am glad my kids wished me a happy day, but I wanted to tribute my dad 👨 (sadly passed away last year 😭😢)
He always offered pearls of wisdom, so I wanted to pass along 4 (of many) which I use for understanding markets…keep reading please
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Bitcoin is proving itself to be a valid macro hedge. That is a change in its character this year and sets it up for new highs.
Bitcoin will rally to new highs as market mayhem continues, says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee. Here's why.
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Oldie but a goodie
👇
(PS: Love the warning label)
Every Tom Lee appearance on CNBC should come with a warning like cigarettes
“Listening to this shit will kill you.” Something like that
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Powell no longer invoking Volcker
- risk-on
#FOMC
#Wednesdaymotivations
$IWM $KRE $QQQ $SPY
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Merry Christmas 🎄
- hoping the holiday season brings out the best in us
- praying for those in need
Today the King is born!
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A 🧵🪡
1/2
Important to see how S&P 500 $SPY reacts at 5,000
👇
- market has been getting stronger so it may simply soar past
Good speaking with
@ScottWapnerCNBC
in
@CNBCClosingBell
@fs_insight
#FridayVibes
"If this is a strong market, 5,000 [on the S&P 500] won't mean anything. But in February, 5,000 could be a short-term top before there's a big air pocket. It's a level to watch," says
@fundstrat
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Great to run into
@SullyCNBC
while I am snapping a selfie at the
@NYSE
tree lighting (tonight)
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Bitcoin moved back above its 200-day moving average on 1/27... positive milestone and reinforcing 2020 shaping up to be great year for $BTC
#bitcoin
- whenever BTC >200D, win-rate (6M forward) jumps to 80% and essentially "re-entering" bull market (>200D)
#BTD
#bestasset2020
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Merry Christmas 🎁🎄
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday with friends and family
There is so much positive meaning to this holiday for all.
🙏 God with us
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Looking into 2024, the “fat pitch” for next few years could be small-caps $IWM
- on relative valuation, right at 1999 lows which is when $IWM launched 🚀🧨 for 12 years of gains
PS: history only a guide 🗺️🗾
@fs_insight
@SquawkStreet
@SaraEisen
@BobPisani
#stocks
…
.
@Fundstrat
tells
@SaraEisen
&
@BobPisani
he's bullish on small-caps in 2024.
“I think people need to put a long-term lens on small-caps.”
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Happy new year 🎊🎈 to all
- there was a lot of suffering and turmoil in 2023
- but also a lot of positives as well
Time to put 2023 in the rear view mirror 🪞 and focus on 2024!
Let’s make it a great year
@fs_insight
#NewBeginnings2024
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We expected “new highs in Jan”
- key week ahead and determines how high
- our base case is next move is then a pullback in 1H
Looking for breadth expansion $IWM
@LastCallCNBC
@fs_insight
#Mondayvibes
“We expected new highs by late January, which was on schedule, and I think this week is gonna tell us how much further we go,” says
@fundstrat
’s Tom Lee. “I do think we continue to be strong, but then after that, I think there’s a big air pocket.”
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This is disappointing
@APompliano
suspended and falls into the same magnitude as the suspension of
@zerohedge
@freezerohedge
a few weeks ago.
- can’t really fathom how ‘the pomp’ did anything to warrant a suspension and hope it’s not permanent.
Unfair purging of
#dissidents
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Probabilities suggest small-caps $IWM big incremental opportunity 🚀in 2024
👇
- great speaking with
@SullyCNBC
@fs_insight
@LastCallCNBC
#Wednesdayvibe
"Are you all in on small caps?"
@SullyCNBC
asks.
"We are," says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee. "With the Fed doing a dovish pause and CEOs getting more confident... I do think the Russell can rise 50% this year."
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Why is the market anxious in front of this Fed rate cut? Consider this fact:
- the average portfolio manager has 8.7 yrs experience per
@MorningstarInc
, which means running portfolio only since 2010.
- half of fund managers NEVER SEEN A RATE CUT IN THEIR PROFESSIONAL CAREER!!
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Praying for the souls of the world 🌎 today. He hears our cries
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This is something that people in the US do not fully appreciate...
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CRYPTO: I think we may be turning corner (positive) on US regulatory overhang. Why? I don’t believe
@coinbase
would announce Keystone and
@circlepay
would seek a bank unless they saw sufficient clarity to “run towards” regulation. Hence, positive for
#BTC
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#GoodFriday
, as Tim Keller reminds us, Jesus came here to find us ❤️
“The most important one,” answered Jesus, “is this: ‘Hear, O Israel: The Lord our God, the Lord is one. Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your…
Redeemer's Tim Keller (my "boss") on MSNBC's Morning Joe from Good Friday (
http://bit.ly/2EYs4W)
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CRYPTO: Why bitcoin could rally more than 70% in the coming week, Fundstrat’s Lee says
@fundstrat
#consensus2018
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CRYPTO: Our quant/data scientist
@fundstratQuant
publishing
#bitcoin
mining white paper. Crypto mining economics lead/explain $BTC price—suggests $39,000 per bitcoin by YE19. key takeaways below...
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Ummm
Can we stop playing with
#viruses
plz
Chinese lab crafts mutant COVID-19 strain with 100% kill streak in ‘humanized’ mice: ‘Surprisingly’ rapid death
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Really really really good news 👇
“South Africa’s government, buoyed by encouraging data showing that infections from the Omicron variant aren’t as severe, has dropped quarantine restrictions for all but symptomatic people.” - The New York Times
@nytimes
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A 🧵🪡
1/
Yesterday on
@LastCallCNBC
,
@SullyCNBC
asked me what we saw at start of 2023 to enable us to get the call “right” at the start of the year
- I gave a quick answer
- but want to give a fuller answer here on
@X
Plz keep reading…
@fs_insight
#SaturdayThoughts
At the start of the year, many strategists were bearish, except for one...
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee. The "Oracle of Optimism" explains why he had the highest year-end S&P 500 target, and why he was so right.
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CRYPTO: A major announcement at
#consensus2018
that did not seem to get a lot of airtime
@LedgerHQ
announcing an institutional custody solution in partnership with
@Nomura
and
@GABIjersey
. Addresses a major issue for institutional investors
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Great speaking with
@ScottWapnerCNBC
today on
@CNBCClosingBell
- terrible first week of 2024, but also wrong to view this as “year will be bad”
Many tailwinds developing (
#Fed
🕊️) plus strong market
#breadth
in Dec can’t be ignored
Be vigilant but avoid getting too…
Why
@fundstrat
says he's not wavering from his bullish view on the market despite a rocky start to the year for stocks:
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In our view, probabilities favor the
#Fed
becoming more confident or at least 3 cuts markets by June. As there will be 3 inflation reports by June (CPI Mar, Apr, May)
- this is supportive of equities
- hence, buying the “dip” of this recent pullback makes sense
@fs_insight
…
"3 cuts actually may be too low. There's a possibility for more than 3 cuts this year," says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee as Wall Street giants
@StevenACohen2
and
@davidein
offer contrasting views on the Fed's rate path.
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Just an observation and not a forecast (not financial advice)
- I have not spoken to a single institutional investor that wants to be “short” equities at start of 2024
- and these same funds are still trying to “right size” after being very short in October
Suggests to me…
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CRYPTO: 1/ To put the alt-coin sell-off in a historical context: we created an "alt-coin correction index" which measures what % of alt-coins are down 70% from their 9-month high. Recently, this index hit 97%, the highest reading since 10/25/14.
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Great speaking with
@JoeSquawk
@andrewrsorkin
about
#equities
and
#Bitcoin
- despite misfire from SEC tweet, spot ETF seems inevitable
- opens pathway for more investors to $BTC = supports higher prices 😇
PS: S&P 500 outlook $SPY still positive but bulk gains in 2H 🐂📈…
"I think in the next 12 months
#Bitcoin
will reach over $100,000...maybe $150,000," says
@fundstrat
. "There's potentially a huge increase in demand with a Spot Bitcoin approval so I think in five years something around half a million is definitely achievable."
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Today is very telling for
#equities
- little macro news
- small-caps up 3% $IWM
- shows many investors sidelined for most of 2023
- Fed meeting imploded bear thesis
@fs_insight
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Bitcoin is forming the ‘heck yeah!’ pattern.
- HODL and focus on the long term.
#cryptowinterisover
#BTFD
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Somebody missed the bottom 🤣
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@Bloomberg
loving them ❤️
@JessicaMenton
@alexandraandnyc
@lena_popina
@business
#nednomad
@fs_insight
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I am very positive on
@Bakkt
and it’s ability to improve trust with institutions to crypto
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Take a step back and consider:
- Stocks down big overnight Sunday(futures) on
#COVID19
UK strain
- S&P 500 opens down 2%
- closes basically ‘flat’
- Stocks rally intraday on bad news
Big recovery if you ask me.
There is still “plenty of gas in the tank”
#SantaClaus
rally
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What professor Siegel says here is important
👇
Please give it a 👂
@Wharton
@CNBCClosingBell
"What's to stop this market now?"
Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel breaks down the bull case after a critical week of economic data and earnings.
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Sort of ironic that a blind advocate (aka wrong way Charlie) of a gold-only portfolio is trying to school me on
#economics
- laughable
#Bitcoin
pumper
@fundstrat
told the
@CNBC
audience that millennials drive economic growth because they spend so much money. He has it backwards. It's economic growth that enables millenials to spend. Failure to understand basic economic principles is why Bitcoin is so popular.
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did this happen?
Black swan event tomorrow on sp500
It can drop 300 points in a single day.
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