Paulo Macro
@PauloMacro
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Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
Joined May 2013
Nothing I say should be construed as investment advice. I do not know your circumstance and so please treat my tweets as nothing more than what my thoughts are & what I’m doing with my own money. Please do your own work and consult your own financial advisor.
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Or let them eat cake. Or both.
@JaredKubin From @morganhousel : "I'm a free markets guy. I think there's very few instances where the free market is gonna do worse than anything else. But there is a thing where it's like, we have so much history across generations, across countries, that if you give ordinary people the
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Yes
Argentina is one of the world’s largest holders of lithium, copper, and rare earth minerals, critical materials for electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense systems. Whoever secures Argentina’s mineral trade secures leverage in the clean energy and tech future. By setting
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"Hold on, hold on, hold on. You're selling GPUs to xAI via a SPV. That SPV is partially funding that purchase with equity from you?" "We call that synthetic vendor financing." "That is fucking crazy." "No, it's not. It's awesome."
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The number of examples in this thread are disconcerting
Millions of young Gen z guys just got their entire net worth wiped out in seconds. 10x leverage and a 10% flash crash will do that to you. These people will be scarred from risk assets for life.
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Can't even begin to comprehend how multi billion coins went to literal ZERO on the biggest crypto exchange Something VERY SERIOUS happened, we need to know the MMs and funds that got carried out
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Lol they literally want you to be a dick now
Rude prompts to LLMs consistently lead to better results than polite ones 🤯 The authors found that very polite and polite tones reduced accuracy, while neutral, rude, and very rude tones improved it. Statistical tests confirmed that the differences were significant, not
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Excellent thread here on rare earths and China👇
China's updated export control seem to be directed @ US EAR's De Minis Rule (for 0.1% 13 RE elements) + FDP (Chinese tech in mining, smelting, separation, processing, mfg & recycling). Annex 1 can be modified to include more elements like Ga, Ge & La. Why is it done this way?
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Monday will be super interesting for margin calls. Why? Systematics (var controlled funds, cta) will be big sellers ( hearing on x up to 100$b) over time Well how do u satisfy margin calls. 3 ways 1 liquidate some crypto - well with $20b liquidated on Friday less likely 2 move
Depends precisely how we close, but my estimate of 1 day systatic selling is roughly equivalent of 1 month worth of retail buying. Big part of past months' rally was riding systematic tailwinds.
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Sounds like a great idea, real innovation…
We just bumped up the max leverage from 20x to 50x on international perpetual futures. A bunch of traders asked for this update. Let us know what else we can add!
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Shoutout to this guy for opening a $330M short position on Ethereum minutes before Trump announced more tariffs on China. Let the corruption live on.
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Helluva asset class… “diversification”
🚨BREAKING: Crypto liquidations soar to $9.4 BILLION in 24 hours – the LARGEST single-day event ever. Bigger than LUNA. Bigger than COVID. Bigger than FTX. We just witnessed history.
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what?
BREAKING: Multiple people feared dead after massive explosion at Tennessee bomb factory
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Another opportunity for a Trump Nobel
Pakistan tonight launched several waves of airstrikes against the Afghan capital of Kabul, reportedly targeted the leadership and senior members of the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
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There’s that word again…
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So people are missing something here. The K economy has a twist. Those in the upper middle are watching the zombies clamber up the wall and try to grab their ankles (AI, job insecurity in white collar, etc). The rich 1% don’t move the needle for Ferrari. They buy toys regularly
Ferrari having its worst day since 2016 on horrific earnings. If the rich stop spending here, you can kiss whatever is left of this economy goodbye.
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Driver supply shock. Volumes not going anywhere. But look over there, there’s some AI!
One note of caution on the recent excitement: We are not seeing any real market stress other than truckload spot rates off the floor. Tender volumes are absolutely anemic. I want to see a surge in tender rejections before declaring a changing of the guard. No sign at this
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