π₯¦ Jake Taylor π
@farnamjake1
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Value: After Hours. Founder @Journalytic. Author of The Rebel Allocator. Nature, adventure, books, family. Never investment advice.
Folsom, CA
Joined December 2012
Long duration businesses. Long duration ownership. Long duration relationships.
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But can they keep it?
"Americans gained more than $63 trillion dollars in wealth from the first quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of 2025"
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garbitrage /ΛΙ‘ΙΛrbΙͺtrΙΛΚ/ noun Definition: The investment practice of seeking mispriced opportunities among neglected, unfashionable, or βgarbageβ stocks, companies dismissed by the market but trading below intrinsic value. A tongue-in-cheek blend of garbage and arbitrage,
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"In games with a risk of ruin, survival IS victory." @Greenbackd just wrote a book connecting Warren Buffett to Sun Tzu's Art of War. Sounds weird. Makes perfect sense. @bogumil_nyc + I had questions - out now @excessreturnpod
https://t.co/0bAvfb0F6j
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Feels a bit like the St. Petersburg Paradox to me...
I donβt have much to add to the bubble discussion, but the βthis time is differentβ argument is, in part, based on the sincere belief of many at the AI labs that there is a race to superintelligence & the winner gets,.. everything. It is a key dynamic that is not discussed much
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A predator animal would be quite confused why humans pay more for 95-5% hamburger than 80-20%.
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With CAPE over 40x, we're at the value-guy-writing-haikus part of the cycle... π Rate cuts float markets, but tomorrowβs bill swellsβ returns grow meager.
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"If we swing, we will be locked into low returns. But if we let all of today's balls go by, there can be no assurance that the next ones we see will be more to our liking. Perhaps the attractive prices of the past were the aberrations, not the full prices of today." -WEB in 1997
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1600s French Larousse dictionary defined error as "a vagabondage of the imagination, of the the mind that is not subject to any rule." Feels like an apt description of AI errors today?
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The US Govt doesn't need to own shares of corporations. They already own golden preferred shares of all private and public companies, where they get to decide their own dividend payout rates. It's called corporate taxes.
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Long but thoughtful read on the investment process.
So it turns out @MrMojoRisinX has taken his talents to substack. He's one of the best moneymakers I know, and is always provocative, whether on twitter or in person. Long post here on investment process, but applicable to nearly any occupation. https://t.co/umy0mTrpT9
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Wild to see 20%+ moves in 3 of the last 4 years. (Does this remotely match fundamental business improvements?) And maybe more staggering: 10%+ moves in 7 of the last 9 years?!
The average S&P 500 total return is 10% per year but the stock market has only performed within 2% of that number in 4 of the last 97 years. The highest annual return was +53% and lowest -44%. The lesson? To get the average return, stay diversified and hang on.
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Would there be any unintended consequences if I blocked the term "gentleman"?
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We finally got Rudy to come slum it with us for an hour!
Senior markets commentator @RudyHavenstein joins @farnamjake1 and me on Value: After Hours LIVE TODAY at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P / 5.30pm UTC / 3.30am AEST Watch it on the Acquirers Podcast channel: https://t.co/Ab8JGxgMOu Subscribe to be sent a reminder: https://t.co/QCfk5qMHMa
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Make that 19 years...
Celebrating 15 years of (mostly) matrimonial bliss with this keeper. π
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Moderating a panel at Fordham on how investment managers are using AI, the energy/infra requirements, and can we tie it all back to value investing? Come say hi! https://t.co/UeFIUztZcN
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Sound on to hear older brother saying, "Get out, ball!" :)
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Heck of a tournament. 6-10, 3 RBI, 6 R. 3 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 Ks, 0 ER. And this 2-run bomb to LF. π£
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