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Forward Guidance

@ForwardGuidance

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Macro Investing. Podcast by @fejau_inc | Newsletter by @strack_ben Telegram: https://t.co/cccyP3Jvq8

Joined June 2022
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
2 days
🎙️NEW ROUNDUP: Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets We Cover: 🔸 Global liquidity cycle topping 🔸 Main Street recession and re-acceleration 🔸 Gold vs Bitcoin in the debasement trade 🔸 China’s liquidity push and stablecoin risk @crossbordercap @qthomp
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
2 hours
The U.S. economy is reaccelerating into 2026 "You can't have Main Street in a recession if you're looking to get reelected as an incumbent" @qthomp
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
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Michael Howell (@crossbordercap): ➤ Paper money is being systematically debased ➤ We are somewhere near the end of the liquidity cycle
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
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Apple 🎙️: https://t.co/drYeKSnBtu Spotify 🎙️: https://t.co/S9a8vxvHj9 YouTube 🎥:
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
ICYMI: Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets We Cover: 🔸 Global liquidity cycle topping 🔸 Main Street recession and re-acceleration 🔸 Gold vs Bitcoin in the debasement trade 🔸 China’s liquidity push and stablecoin risk @crossbordercap @qthomp
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Check out the full episode & more below! ↓ ➤ YouTube 🎥: https://t.co/9YWchf8yVK ➤ Apple 🎙️: https://t.co/QKiOpJZ4y1 ➤ Spotify 🎙️: https://t.co/zzFZkDqYOa
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Key takeaways: ➤ Global liquidity cycle topping, recession behind us, re-acceleration ahead ➤ Bitcoin & gold as core hedges in the debasement trade ➤ China’s stablecoin fears driving liquidity surge ➤ Europe poorly positioned in capital wars ➤ Monetary reset unique in 4,000
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Michael Howell’s warning: this is historically unique. ➤ 4,000 years of rate history and NEVER zero interest rates until 2020 ➤ Every crisis is now solved by printing & monetization ➤ Why you need monetary hedges: gold & crypto We are living through a once-in-history
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap The bleak macro picture is driving the scramble for hard assets. ➤ Declining fertility rates tied to liquidity & housing unaffordability ➤ Wealth inequality widening as central banks “boost at all times” ➤ Developed nations locked into fiscal deficits & demographic decline
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Europe looks weakest in this new paradigm. ➤ Fragmented bond markets, fiscal mess, no safe asset beyond German Bunds ➤ Political instability mounting in France, UK, across EU ➤ Cannot issue a credible Euro stablecoin without unified bonds “Badly positioned” in the capital
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Stablecoins are the hidden systemic risk to China. ➤ Offer anonymity & protection vs Chinese banks ➤ Threat of capital flight scares Beijing ➤ Could destabilize financial sovereignty if exporters choose stables over banks This risk explains China’s surge in monetary easing.
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap China’s liquidity push is a massive X-factor. ➤ $1T equivalent injected into their system in past 12 months ➤ Seen as defense against stablecoin-driven capital flight ➤ Strategy: devalue yuan vs real assets, especially gold Gold is collateralizing China’s system; digital
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Bitcoin vs Gold in the debasement trade. ➤ 50% of Bitcoin’s moves explained by global liquidity ➤ 25% linked to risk appetite (Nasdaq correlation) ➤ 25% tied to gold’s performance Gold spikes first, but Bitcoin eventually catches up.
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap The “hidden recession” already happened. ➤ Quinn: Main Street recession hit in 2024, now we’re re-accelerating ➤ Every asset at all-time highs (stocks, gold, real estate) ➤ Incumbents can’t afford a visible downturn into 2026 elections The cycle was smoothed over with
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
@crossbordercap Global liquidity cycle is topping out. ➤ Howell: we’re nearing the top of the liquidity upwave that started in Oct '22 ➤ Trend: governments are debasing money, fueling the “debasement trade” ➤ Central banks are losing control of repo & QT Money flow, not textbooks, drives
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
1 day
In our roundup with Michael Howell (@crossbordercap), we discussed the global liquidity cycle peaking and why hard assets are reclaiming the center of the global monetary system. The big takeaway: governments are trapped in a historic debasement cycle ↓
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
2 days
Being the biggest DAT isn’t always best $MSTR can’t tap DeFi & onchain yield without swallowing the whole market Smaller DATs can actually capture crypto’s scarce alpha @dgt10011
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@1000xPod
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Somebody pays for tariffs but it isn't Mag7 and Mag7 is the market @AviFelman @fejau_inc @qthomp
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
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What makes today so unique? @crossbordercap ➤ 4,000 years of rates, NEVER zero until 2020 ➤ Government's only solution now is to monetize
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@ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance
2 days
Apple 🎙️: https://t.co/drYeKSn3DW Spotify 🎙️: https://t.co/S9a8vxv9tB YouTube 🎥:
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