Forward Guidance
@ForwardGuidance
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Macro Investing Podcast Hosted by @fejau_inc Telegram: https://t.co/cccyP3IXAA
Joined June 2022
🎙️NEW POD: Why Today’s Economy Serves Assets, Not Workers We Cover: 🔸 Asset-driven feudalism 🔸 Why Main St. only had 6 days 🔸 Broken market structure 🔸 Where real growth is hiding 🔸 AI capital misallocation & more! @kuppyskorner @Tyler_Neville_ Links Below ↓
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Apple 🎙️: https://t.co/wNBczUJzOj Spotify 🎙️: https://t.co/wFlYJ6LuWM YouTube 🎥:
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The “massive rate-cut cycle” narrative is fading @themarketradar Terminal rates are roughly where they were last summer, yet the 10-year is ~50bps higher, meaning term premium has widened Cut the front end for the wrong reasons and the market will simply reprice the long end
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🎙️New Episode: December 18, 2025 -President Trump’s address to the nation -Brown shooting investigation mishaps -Trump admin’s shift on China and chips -Chinese billionaires exploiting surrogacy in America -The latest celeb touting socialism -Eric Swalwell’s major milestone
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“True QE” is about suppressing the long end to force certain behavior @themarketradar By buying duration, the Fed disincentivizes saving, bond-buying, and cash hoarding, pushing capital back into risk and spending to avoid deflation. Without long-end QE, liquidity stays
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Apple 🎙️: https://t.co/RUUsIW0T7F Spotify 🎙️: https://t.co/8l8eTJNf8M YouTube 🎥:
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Forward Guidance · Episode
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ICYMI NEW POD: How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime We Cover: 🔸 Growth & inflation impulses 🔸 The Fed’s inflation dilemma 🔸 Signal from conflicting inputs 🔸 Right way to think about liquidity 🔸 2026 predictions @themarketradar @fejau_inc Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction
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Was a pleasure chatting again on @ForwardGuidance Understanding the current regime is extremely important right now
🎙️NEW POD: How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime We Cover: 🔸 Growth & inflation impulses 🔸 The Fed’s inflation dilemma 🔸 Signal from conflicting inputs 🔸 Right way to think about liquidity 🔸 2026 predictions @themarketradar @fejau_inc Links Below ↓
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Excited to announce that I will sitting down with @SteveMiran for a fireside chat at the upcoming @blockworksDAS !
ANNOUNCING Federal Reserve Board Governor @SteveMiran will join @fejau_inc for a fireside chat on Day 2 of DAS NYC 2026 March 25th. Don't miss it.
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The Fed is truly stuck between a rock and a hard place @themarketradar Taking inflation from ~2.9% to 2.0% likely requires over-tightening and risking a 20–25% equity drawdown But is that last 90bps of inflation worth trillions in destroyed wealth?
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Apple 🎙️: https://t.co/RUUsIW0li7 Spotify 🎙️: https://t.co/8l8eTJMHje YouTube 🎥:
open.spotify.com
Forward Guidance · Episode
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🎙️NEW POD: How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime We Cover: 🔸 Growth & inflation impulses 🔸 The Fed’s inflation dilemma 🔸 Signal from conflicting inputs 🔸 Right way to think about liquidity 🔸 2026 predictions @themarketradar @fejau_inc Links Below ↓
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We talk a lot about “controlling volatility” in markets, but volatility doesn't just disappear, it migrates into society through politics The bottom 50% owns a rounding error of total assets, leaving them with a "nothing to lose" attitude and growing affinity for incendiary
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Check out the full episode & more below! ↓ ➤ YouTube 🎥: https://t.co/9YWchf8yVK ➤ Apple🎙️: https://t.co/QKiOpJZ4y1 ➤ Spotify🎙️: https://t.co/zzFZkDqYOa
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Key Takeaways: • The Fed has entered a quiet liquidity-support regime. • Volatility is being suppressed and transmuted into society (politics). • Market leadership is rotating away from megacaps. • Social-political pressure is the unintended consequence of financial
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc The sad irony is crypto should thrive in this environment but isn’t. Most assets were inflated by VC markup culture, DAT leverage, and speculative froth. The purge is painful but necessary. Bitcoin’s structural bid may return once affordability and "young liquidity" returns,
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc This is why extreme political voices are suddenly mainstream: economic stagnation for the bottom 90% meets financial repression for savers. You cannot suppress financial volatility without creating social volatility. Something eventually gives.
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc And right now that volatility is migrating into society. Wealth concentration is the highest on record. Boomers own the balance sheet; younger generations are stuck with the income statement. Suppressing market vol simply pushes pressure into social and political fractures.
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc A big part of this is volatility is being mechanically suppressed. Implied correlation is collapsing, FX vol is pinned, and equity vol is bleeding lower. Policymakers and systematic allocators both depend on a low-vol regime. However, volatility never disappears, it just
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Meanwhile, credit markets remain pretty calm. High-yield spreads sitting near cycle lows. Yield-to-worst is sub-7%. Refinancing windows are open. In a world where even weak companies can cheaply fund themselves, default cycles get deferred.
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@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc However, asset selection is still critical. Precious metals and cyclicals are leading. Mega-cap tech looks extended as the market is beginning to discount high CapEx, rising supply of competing AI chips, and stretched multiples. Narrow leadership is losing dominance and we're
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