Forward Guidance
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Macro Investing. Podcast by @fejau_inc | Newsletter by @strack_ben Telegram: https://t.co/cccyP3Jvq8
Joined June 2022
🚨 NEW ROUNDUP: The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here!. We Discuss:.🔶 Labor Day market pivots & volatility.🔶 Inflation & economic re-acceleration risk.🔶 Entering a liquidity danger zone?.🔶 Growing government intervention in markets.🔶 Is the AI CapEx bubble bursting?
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Is this the start of a true market rotation? . Gold near all-time highs, bond yields rising, equities soft, dollar lower, and signs inflation risk may be overtaking recession fears.
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ICYMI: The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here!. We Discuss:.🔶 Labor Day market pivots & volatility.🔶 Inflation & economic re-acceleration risk.🔶 Entering a liquidity danger zone?.🔶 Growing government intervention in markets.🔶 Is the AI CapEx bubble bursting?
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Oil down while inflation swaps rising. A rare divergence that hints at a Fed policy mistake.
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Bitcoin’s on fire at $112K! Time to flip the charts on BTCC!.Exploring Cryptocurrency with Jaren Jackson Jr.🏀.
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A deeper look into how CME crypto derivatives milestones reflect broader altcoin demand. Worth perusing this thread . .
Amid crypto futures records this month, I caught up with CME crypto products head Giovanni Vicioso. What has stood out to him?
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@MacroAlf Key takeaways:. ➤ Fed independence is at risk under Trump.➤ Fiscal policy shifts could flip from drag in late-2025 to surge in 2026.➤ Money creation acceleration is the ultimate driver.➤ Commodities, EMs, and crypto are the new hedges.➤ Investors need to rethink portfolios.
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this song has been stuck in my head all day and now it's stuck in yours
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@MacroAlf Alf calls commodities & crypto the new “protest assets.”. ➤ Protect against inflation risk premia.➤ Diversified commodity baskets hedge policy distortions.➤ Bitcoin/crypto act as high-beta inflation hedges with right-tail potential. When Fed & fiscal policy collide, these.
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@MacroAlf Europe & EMs deserve more attention. ➤ Europe breaking from austerity with fiscal deficits.➤ Reforms in banking & shareholder policies driving returns.➤ EMs offer 10%+ real yields vs ~0% in U.S. Investors are under-allocated globally and plenty of opportunity lies outside.
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@MacroAlf Asset allocation in a hot economy changes everything. ➤ Bonds (esp. long-end) become uninvestable.➤ High-beta growth assets outperform: small caps, metals, crypto.➤ Commodities & EM equities are also under-owned and poised to shine. The winners are assets tied to nominal.
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@MacroAlf Money creation is the key driver of growth. ➤ Public: deficits inject demand into the private sector.➤ Private: AI/data-center capex adds leverage & earnings.➤ What matters is acceleration vs deceleration, not just levels. If the “car” of money creation keeps accelerating,.
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@MacroAlf The fiscal side is just as important. ➤ Tariffs act as a $400B tax on consumers & corporates.➤ The OBBB fiscal bill kicks in 2026, adding stimulus.➤ Treasury General Account rebuild drains liquidity in the near term. Short-term tightening could flip into a 2026 growth surge.
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TradCat Mission | Catholic Apparel.=^.^= The Mission is Good =^.^=
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@MacroAlf First, we discussed how Trump’s growing control over the Fed will erode its independence. ➤ He could appoint loyalists and sway FOMC votes by early 2026.➤ That tilts rate policy dovish (~3% terminal rate), even if data says otherwise.➤ Bond market is already pricing more
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In our interview with @MacroAlf, he explained how $400 billion annualized tariffs risk slowing the U.S. fiscal impulse before 2026. However, a short-term drag could give way to a boiling hot economy once new fiscal stimulus kicks in ↓
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Europe has been written off for decades, but investors might be overlooking a severely under-owned market 👀. 🎙️ @MacroAlf
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Fun Fact: Eastern European equities outperformed U.S. AI stocks over the last five years (with dollar hedging) . 🎙️ @MacroAlf
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ICYMI: Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge!. We Discuss:.🔶 Trump’s growing influence over the Fed.🔶 Impact of OBBB & tariffs on fiscal impulse.🔶 Asset allocation in a “hot” economy.🔶 Under-allocation to European markets. @MacroAlf @fejau_inc. Timestamps:
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