James Lavish
@jameslavish
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reformed hedge-fund manager | cfa | co- founder of Bitcoin Opportunity Fund @BTCOppFund | ex-@yale hockey and 🤘| author of 💡The Informationist
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Joined August 2009
I've written quite a bit about finance, economics and investing. My goal is to simplify these important concepts, make them easy for everyone to understand. All of these threads can be found below. Enjoy and please share! a mega 🧵👇
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Good evening. If you are cheering the death of Charlie Kirk, please unfollow me now. We do not see eye to eye. And have a blessed night.
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Good morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now believes that they ‘overestimated’ the number of jobs created over the last year by 911,000. Have a great day.
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When the National Debt Clock in Times Square was unplugged on September 7, 2000, it read: Our national debt: $5,676,989,904,887 Your family share: $73,733 Exactly 25 years later, if we plugged it back in, it would need additional lights and look like this:
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JAMES LAVISH: "No, not tomorrow and not this year. But yes. #Bitcoin is still going to $1 million per coin." IT'S COMING 🚀
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That's an interesting date to pick. Or if we simply went back 5 years to the day, it would look more like this: Bitcoin is up 10.8x and gold is up 1.8X, and so Bitcoin has outperformed gold by ~5.9x.
Gold just hit $3,600, a new all-time record high. It's doing exactly what one would expect with the Fed about to cut rates into rising inflation. But Bitcoin is doing nothing. Priced in gold, it's down 15% from its 2021 high. If you picked Bitcoin, you bet on the wrong horse!
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With the latest sloppy jobs report, investors expect the Fed to be fully focused on the employment side of their 'mandate', even with inflation well above the 2% target. And so, the market is now pricing a 93% probability of a third rate cut by year-end.
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They. Will. Always. Print. More.
So riddle me this: We see a huge jump in unemployment tomorrow: Tax receipts then plummet. Government revenue drops Foreclosure rate rises Consumer spending plunges. Government running record deficits. How does this Ponzi not collapse without the Fed printing money again?
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TL;DR: The bond market no longer trusts the Treasury, Congress, or the Fed.
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When you have $324 trillion of global debt, irresponsible fiscal deficits, and relentless inflation, investors demand more premium for the additional risk. And so, even as the Fed looks to lower short-term rates, yields on long-term bonds are still rising.
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Good evening. The US added half a trillion dollars of federal debt in the last 30 days. Have a great night.
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Stop it. Bitcoin is not going to $50K. Get a hold of yourselves, people.
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Good morning. Total household debt is now over $18.4 trillion, and credit card defaults are at 12.3% and rising toward the *peak* of 13.1% during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Have a great day.
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Objectively speaking, we all face the same challenge when it comes to being impartial about Bitcoin purchases because, as Bitcoiners, we’ve already concluded that the asset is significantly undervalued from a forward-looking perspective. Once you accept that the past will repeat
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Notably, Broken Money sold more copies here in June/July/August 2025 than June/July/August 2024. Wrote it to be as timeless as possible, to have staying power. Thanks everyone who continues to check it out.
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Good morning. As Bitcoin continues to *trade* like a risk asset, it just creates the opportunity for investors and long-term savers to arbitrage the future. Have a great day.
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JAMES LAVISH: "If you want to protest anything, protest central bank monetary manipulation that steals purchasing power from you daily. And the way to do that is by buying Bitcoin."
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