Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
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Hope has two beautiful daughters - Anger and Courage. Anger at the way things are, and Courage to see that they do not remain as they are. - St. Augustine
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Joined July 2013
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Pinned Tweet
The intellectual rot of the modern University perverts and diminishes the good works of its faculty and administrators. It is a rot that requires plagiarism and promotes antisemitism.
We require a new Reformation, and here are its theses.
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It's so weird that the macroeconomic environment has impacted Tesla (-41%) and not Ford (+1%) or GM (+8%) over the past six months.
It's almost as if something else happened in mid-October.
@GerberKawasaki
In simple terms:
As bank savings account interest rates, which are guaranteed, start to approach stock market returns, which are *not* guaranteed, people will increasingly move their money out of stocks into cash, thus causing stocks to drop.
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Must read. This is INSANE.
“Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered.”
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Jim Swartwout, Robinhood’s President and COO, is both trading on MNPI and tipping. This isn’t a gray area. This is black and white.
If this doesn’t matter, nothing matters.
#BITFD
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Trading volume in Kodak stock was 30x normal the day before this announcement.
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
Tackling the Pandemic:
@realDonaldTrump
announces a historic $765m deal with Kodak to bring medical manufacturing back to the U.S.
#AmericaFirst
#MAGA
#Dobbs
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Alameda bought a US bank (Farmington State) connected with Deltec and Tether, and then transferred it to FTX.
There’s no way that the regulatory approval of a Bahamian HF buying a US bank was legit. No way.
FTX was a criminal enterprise from the start.
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Dear
@elonmusk
, I’m an active Twitter user, and over the past 28 days I’ve generated 22.8 million tweet impressions for you.
Four weeks ago, <10% of my mentions were crypto bots.
Two weeks ago, ~1/3 of my mentions were crypto bots.
Today, >50% of my mentions are crypto bots.
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The US gov’t required every recipient of Madoff funds - including noted foundations and endowments - to return the money.
Sorry, all you politicians and foundations and media orgs that took Bankman-Fried’s money … you’re no different. Give it back. Now.
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Enough of this bullshit.
I’m old enough to remember that Bernie Madoff - who ran a scam 100x more complex than SBF’s - was in handcuffs the same day the Feds learned he used client funds to cover fund obligations.
Seriously. Enough of this bullshit.
23) Roughly 25% of customer assets were withdrawn each day--$4b.
As it turned out, I was wrong: leverage wasn't ~$5b, it was ~$13b.
$13b leverage, total run on the bank, total collapse in asset value, all at once.
Which is why you don't want that leverage.
---
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BlockFi got a $400m credit line from FTX US and drew down $250m, not in cash but in FTT tokens.
BlockFi lent $680m to Alameda, not in FTT tokens but in client deposits.
Maybe
@BlockFiZac
and
@SBF_FTX
can explain how this isn't outright fraud with US-regulated entities.
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It's so weird that CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham has deleted this tweet (along with every other chummy reference to FTX, apparently).
Meanwhile, somewhere a small RIA is being referred to Enforcement for not captioning an S&P500 chart as non-investable.
#BITFD
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LOL. Salesforce sales & marketing expense 50x net profit. Like Google, it’s a company intentionally designed to make multi-millionaires out of mid-level managers with shareholder money.
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Defund? No.
Demilitarize and Deunionize? Yes.
There, fixed it for you.
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The redemptions on Monday from every institutional vehicle designed for crypto investing are going to be insane.
This is a Chernobyl-level event.
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It’s a pretty sick fucking joke that ordinary Americans can have their bank accounts frozen immediately but Russian fucking oligarchs get 30 fucking days to find a cut-out for their Sberbank and VTB accounts.
Sanctions! ™️
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The “don’t test, don’t tell” policy of the CDC came crashing down tonight.
Community transmission is here in the US, and we don’t know the origin.
Only took an hour to blast Trump’s “buh, buh the flu” presser to smithereens.
Now let’s get to work!
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We’ve started tracking the narrative structure of r/wallstreetbets.
Over an 8 hour period y’day, we tracked ~30,000 posts. Of those posts, 97% were removed by mods/filters. It’s all bots, all the time.
Once again, you’re being played.
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Justin Bieber is 30 years younger and (probably) 5 inches taller than Tom Cruise. I’d bet a large sum that neither man has been in a real fight in his entire life. And yet I would bet a larger sum that Tom Cruise wins this fight.
I wanna challenge Tom Cruise to fight in the octagon. Tom if you dont take this fight your scared and you will never live it down. Who is willing to put on the fight?
@danawhite
?
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Stock Buybacks!™️
100% of Meta's $96 billion in stock buybacks went to sterilize new shares issued to employees.
90% of Google's $156 billion in stock buybacks went to sterilize new shares issued to employees.
None of this was 'returned to shareholders'.
ET note tomorrow.
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US airlines are asking today for a $25 billion bailout.
That's fine. I get it.
But just a heads up for Oscar Munoz and Doug Parker and Gary Kelly and all these other centimillionaire CEOs ...
It is my new mission in life to *destroy* you on your SBC and stock buybacks.
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Friends, every month I make the same post. Inflation stopped going down 8 months ago. Wage and price inflation is embedded well above target.
I don't know why this is so hard to understand.
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@elonmusk
@GerberKawasaki
It's so weird that Fed actions have impacted Tesla (-41%) and not Ford (+1%) or GM (+8%) over the past six months.
It's almost as if something else happened in mid-October.
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A thread on the lapdog CCP-apologist fucks who run the World Health Organization.
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Half of my followers will ignore this because it's a 6 minute video.
A third of my followers will ignore this because it's Maddow.
But I'm going to keep RT'ing this until you all watch it.
This is how we save the healthcare system and avoid becoming Italy.
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Your occasional reminder that Henry Blodget was banned for life from the securities industry for his “participation in the great tech bubble of the 1990s”. He wasn’t a neutral observer, like this thread implies, he was an active creator of that bubble.
A few things I learned from my participation in the great tech bubble of the 1990s — and then again, from a different seat, in the housing bubble and Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009... 1) No one knows the future.
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Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First
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California's new $20 min wage law exempts restaurants that bake and sell bread, where bread is defined to exclude bagels and croissants. Only benefits Panera. Newsom mega-donor owns >24 Paneras. Newsom says "part of legislative sausage-making".
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I’ve never been more depressed about the future of my country.
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Larry Summers was not just Jeffrey Epstein's friend, he was his good friend. For example, Epstein gave >$100,000 to Summers' wife for her poetry-reading foundation in 2016.
How is it possible that Summers has NEVER been publicly questioned about Epstein?
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The fact is that the US taxpayer already guarantees unlimited deposits, but only at 4 banks - JPM, BofA, Citi and Wells. I don't get why this is so difficult for people to understand.
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Damn, this is good.
"Keep your eyes focused on the problem, not the distraction."⠀
⠀
This martial arts instructor teaches his students life lessons through sport. Amazing. (via
@mrjasonowilson
)
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Dallas Fed prez Robert Kaplan trades e-minis at >$1m per clip. Boston Fed prez Eric Rosengren trades in and out of Annaly and mortgage REITS.
A junior analyst at Citi has more restrictions on her PA than Fed governors.
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
@DallasFed
@GoldmanSachs
@BostonFed
@federalreserve
7/ In other words, this is complete and utter bullsh*t. We're ending the thread here so as to not spending our entire Thursday night fulminating over the mire of two old men.
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71,000 new Covid-19 cases in US today. Germany had 390.
Positive test rates >50% in places like McAllen, Texas.
Record deaths in Alabama today.
President Nero fiddles. Pardons his buds.
Elon Musk richer by $6 billion. Today.
And I’m the fearmonger. Wake the fuck up, people.
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So SBF's parents - both Stanford law professors with endowed chairs and both specialists in tax law - thought it was just fine for their son's company to give them a multimillion dollar vacation home in the Bahamas. And all this will go away if they "return the property" to FTX.
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No one understands how the grift cycle works better than Trump. No one.
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A forced wind-down of Credit Suisse, a run on US regional banks, the arrest of a former US President, the launch of GPT-4 … I was in the trenches in 2008, and I never felt like system-shattering events were advancing so quickly and (w/exception of GPT-4) on so little substance.
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Yesterday was the hottest day on Earth since we started recording global temps (1979).
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Six technologies of roughly same vintage as blockchain that have much larger commercial and world-changing potential, but a fraction of the publicity. Why? Because raccoons infest fin'l services.
1) Crispr
2) quantum compute
3) Hadoop
4) in-memory DB
5) NLP
6) graphene
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Over the past 30 years, people with money got richer more quickly than people with businesses grew their businesses.
This is the root cause of our wealth inequality, political polarization, productivity stagnation, and systemic vulnerability to normalized interest rates.
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Dollar Tree - a company whose entire brand is based on every item priced $1 or less - announced they're raising prices above $1 on "selected items" at all stores (not just DT Plus).
If you don't see that inflation is embedded in general prices, you're just not paying attention.
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I sincerely believe there is a calculated, strategic effort by China, Russia and billionaire accelerationists to astroturf this sort of crap through Renfields, fellow travelers and know-nothing accounts in order to destabilize the US in narrative-space.
The US dollar is losing its reserve currency status
Here’s what you should know 🧵
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If you understand what it means to love your pack … to be willing to sacrifice *everything* for your pack … please raise a glass to Maggie (2008-2021).
Rest easy, my friend. Your work is done. Your pack is safe.
We will meet again.
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Over the past 43 years, real wages for Americans are up 6.9%.
Not 6.9% per year.
6.9%.
Forty-three years.
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Between the two of them, Warren Buffett and Primecap own about 25% of every major US airline (UAL, DAL, AAL, LUV).
The idea that we’re seriously talking about an airline bailout structure that would protect Buffett and Primecap makes me sick to my stomach.
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I see that American Airlines fired 19 THOUSAND people today, a few months after their $6 billion bailout.
Did you know that CEO Doug Parker cashed in $200 million in stock-based comp over the past 7 years?
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
#BITFD
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This patient - intubated with a life-threatening viral infection - has been at UC Davis in this condition for SEVEN DAYS.
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WSJ identifies 61 judges who traded stock in companies while presiding over suits involving those companies.
If a junior analyst at Citi did this in her personal account, she'd be fired immediately and barred from the securities industry for life.
#BITFD
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Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
(Bloomberg) --Whiting Petroleum Corp.’s board approved $14.6 million in cash bonuses for top executives days before the shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy
Executives are forgoing equity compensation.
Feel better?
@chigrl
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How is it possible that Robinhood senior management is allowed to day-trade stocks?
JFC.
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I’ve got a Ph.D. from Harvard in International Relations, taught statistics for 10 yrs, and wrote a book on applied event count regression methodology.
But please, tell me more about staying in my lane.
@DiMartinoBooth
@EpsilonTheory
At times I dislike the fact that finance pro's become armchair generals, armchair quantum computer nerds, armchair disease spread scientists.
I really never heard a chemist having a take on the current yield curve.
I hate to say it but sometimes you have to stay in your lane.
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Trickle-down trillions from the Fed.
Trickle-down N95 masks from FEMA.
One day, and soon, there will be a reckoning.
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
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This is a Google Maps photo of the bank that SBF, the Gemini guys and the Deltec guys bought.
Per FDIC data (as reported by NY Times) in Q3 2022 deposits went from $10m to $84m, almost all from 4 new accounts.
WHAT LOANS DID THE BANK MAKE WITH THESE FEDERALLY INSURED DEPOSITS?
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The four largest economies in the world, in order of size, are the US, the EU, China, and Japan.
The EU, Japan, and China have figured out how to control Covid-19 without wrecking their economies.
The US has not.
This is a turning point in the global balance of power.
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This is legit insane. Still trying to wrap my head around where we're going to be in 18-24 months, and failing miserably.
Testing out
@HeyGen_Official
translation on French and German. I don’t speak either language so let me know if it sounds natural if you do.
I hope if you pay you can turn off the color correction.
It didn’t work on my phone so I had to upload on my pc.
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“AutoNation used separate tax ID numbers assigned to dozens of its more than 300 locations to apply for more than $266 million in loans.”
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
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Just heard that Wells Fargo ordered employees to cancel all domestic travel plans, likely to require employees to work from home starting Monday.
Wells Fargo has >270,000 employees.
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It’s ... it’s 50x more deadly, spreads more rapidly, originated next to a biowarfare lab, and has no vaccine. But sure, let’s talk about the flu.
Gotta say ... the coordinated narrative control we’re seeing out of both the US and China is mighty impressive.
So far coronavirus is less lethal than the flu, which kills 10-25,000 Americans a year. Yet airlines suspend routes, countries bar people traveling from China. What they are responding to in part is the lack of trust, transparency, and accountability in China's system.
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This is UK data from
@FT
and shows a truth in US and Europe, too: ZIRP broke the real economy by destroying labor productivity.
How? Corporate mgmt used ultra cheap money for risk-free market financialization, not for investment in people, technology and new facilities.
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So the Fed just fired a $1.5 TRILLION bazooka, including tens of billions in outright QE, and so we're only down 5% instead of 8%.
This is not a market-world crisis. This is a real-world war. Treat it for what it is and the markets will recover.
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Stock Buybacks!™
100% of Meta's $96 billion in stock buybacks went to sterilize new shares to employees.
90% of Google's $156 billion in stock buybacks went to sterilize new shares to employees.
None of this was 'returned to shareholders'.
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He wasn’t planning on saving the world, you dipshits, he was planning on looting it.
When Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire went down in flames, so did his plans to save the world
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Canada thinks kicking its own citizens off the financial system is fair and just for supporting an annoying political protest.
The US and Europe think kicking Russian banks off the financial system is too harsh for supporting an invasion of Ukraine.
Weird.
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Here’s the letter from SF Fed prez Mary Daly approving Fed Reserve System membership (SWIFT and wires) for the bank that SBF bought.
That’s Deltec Chairman Jean Chalopin on the Board, as is Gemini Chief Compliance/Operating Officer Noah Perlman.
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
@EpsilonTheory
Gemini COO is ex-DEA, AML expert and ex-Morgan Stanley. And he decided a good use of his time and reputation is to join a shady bank associated with SBF. Whatever master plan they all had, it came crashing prematurely and now they’re all scrambling.
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No one is buying TSLA or AAPL because of the stock split.
Lots of people are buying TSLA and AAPL because they think other people are buying TSLA and AAPL because of the stock split.
This is the common knowledge game in action.
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Fed has now announced 150 bps in emergency rate cuts, $1.5 trillion in term financing, $700 billion in new QE ... and I’m the fear monger.
Futures are way down, btw. Why? Because this is a medical crisis, not a market crisis!
Clowns.
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When was I radicalized?
When I voted for Obama in 2008 because I believed he would deliver profound societal change, only to see him bail out Wall Street while in office and seek vast personal wealth out of office. It’s the greatest political betrayal of my lifetime.
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Oh, he did something. He sold $5 billion worth of stock 20% higher.
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Reading some of these old Pomp tweets for BlockFi and just getting angry all over again.
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I think this has the potential to be a common knowledge-shifting event for San Francisco.
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This happened two days ago in the heart of an American city. No nat’l politician or media orgnz’tn has said much about it, because until the bomber is identified it doesn’t fit into a useful political narrative.
My god, how far we have fallen.
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The MIT prof who took Jeffrey Epstein’s money and had her grad students make a thank-you gift is married to ...
wait for it ...
Bill Ackman.
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Friends, every month I make the same post. Inflation stopped going down 9 months ago. Wage and price inflation is embedded well above target.
I don't know why this is so hard to understand.
Friends, every month I make the same post. Inflation stopped going down 8 months ago. Wage and price inflation is embedded well above target.
I don't know why this is so hard to understand.
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Since 2010, the big US airlines have spent 96% of their free cash flow on stock buybacks. Now marry that with the *enormous* stock-based comp of CEOs like Munoz, Parker and Kelly ...
They're asking US taxpayers for $25 billion today.
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I’m angry that I have to write about the airline industry bail-out. But the raccoons are looking to get their losses socialized and their gains locked in.
Bailout the airlines and rank-and-file employees? You bet.
Bailout Buffett and the CEOs? No way.
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He runs 360 degrees around the freakin’ table to get to a shot. Impossible.
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This is a great read. Our supply chain problem isn’t a “bottleneck” at the ports. It’s the systemic collapse of an over-levered, financialized transport industry. Ports, warehouses, containers, trucking, rails … it’s all connected and it’s all fucked up.
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What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.
The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.
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Twitter didn’t ban ZH because they analyzed the scientific accuracy of the post. Twitter banned ZH because they think it’s a dangerous thought.
That’s what makes me angry, and it should make you angry, too.
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If you don’t see that GPT-4 is an Industrial Revolution-level event, you’re just not paying attention.
#GPT4
saved my dog's life.
After my dog got diagnosed with a tick-borne disease, the vet started her on the proper treatment, and despite a serious anemia, her condition seemed to be improving relatively well.
After a few days however, things took a turn for the worse 1/
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LOL. As if the reality of two quarters of declining GDP doesn’t exist if we don’t use the word “recession”. It’s the epitome of Fiat World, where reality is declared, not lived.
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In this time of crisis, Harvard president Larry Bacow will receive his $1.7m+ comp for the duration of his illness, as well as the finest medical care. He and his wife Adele will reside in historic Elmwood House, free of charge.
Harvard dining hall staff, however, will be fired.
President Larry Bacow and his wife Adele have tested positive for COVID-19 and are being treated at home
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"When asked by Reuters why the couple decided to buy a vacation home in the Bahamas and how it was paid for, a spokesman for the professors said only that Bankman and Fried had been trying to return the property to FTX."
It was all a con from the start.
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For 6 yrs, Marc Benioff sold 10-15k shares of Salesforce stock Every. Single. Effin. Day.
And then the Board reloaded him with tens of millions more shares.
STFU, Marc.
Highlight: "I really think capitalism is dead, and that everything needs to be thought about from the beginning,"
@Salesforce
CEO Marc
@Benioff
says. Full comments:
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Bitcoin bros encouraging bank runs and a global economy shutdown is astonishingly evil and profoundly stupid, even for self-absorbed imbeciles who just discovered that, yes, fractional reserves means banks don't have enough cash to give everyone their deposits back immediately.
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I mean, if you think that Tesla is down 8% today because of "The Fed" or because it's a "growth stock", then you're the sucker at the table.
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They’re not even pretending anymore.
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We've been assaulted by three brutal grifts in just the past week ... three smacks from Bobo and his bag of oranges.
Here's chapter 1 - the ludicrous crony capitalism of the US gov't giving Kodak $765 million for "pharmaceutical supply production".
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And people wonder why I'm so fucking angry on Twitter.
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Yep, I’m back to watching CNN for real-time news about what is happening in Israel.
It’s amazing how Twitter created a dominant real-time global news franchise 2011-2021 and even more amazing how Elon blew that up. A masterclass in value destruction.
Elon really did his best to ensure that Twitter was going to be useless in times where rapid access to information would matter and he achieved it in less than 24 months.
Kinda impressive in its destructiveness if you think about it.
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Martha Stewart went to prison for inside information that avoided a $58,000 loss.
Dallas Fed prez Robert Kaplan trades e-minis at >$1m per clip. Boston Fed prez Eric Rosengren trades in and out of Annaly and mortgage REITS.
A junior analyst at Citi has more restrictions on her PA than Fed governors.
Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
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Every US company saw the jobs report today and licked their chops. Carte blanche to raise prices as much as they like. This is what an embedded wage/price spiral looks like, and it’s why the Fed must engineer a horrible recession to wring it out.
Or they won’t, which is worse.
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