Samantha LaDuc
@SamanthaLaDuc
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Proud Founder + Mother. Humbled Contributor: Bloomberg, CNBC, YahooFinance... Curious Cross-Asset Analyst. Persistent Trader on Chase, Swing + Trend Timeframes.
www.samanthaladuc.com
Joined July 2012
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I’m sad about this.
US personal savings rate at all time lows while $1 trillion in credit card debt at all time highs. ☹️
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SORRY FOLKS 🤯🔝
CoreWeave:
Is backed by $NVDA
Buys $2.3B in $NVDA chips
With $2.3B LOC financed by Blackrock
Using the the $2.3B $NVDA chips as collateral
Blackrock owns 182M shares of $NVDA
$NVDA claims $2.3B data center beat
$NVDA gaps up 11% in AH - of which ALL was unwound…
Ahhh, now it makes sense!!
"Blackrock alone owns 182mm shares...pays for the loan and then some"
@beatlesonbankin
$NVDA
Investors in the 08.03.23 CoreWeave $2.3B line of credit: Blackrock in large part 🫰 $BLK
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I will admit, this chart worries me.
Personal interest payments (blue) now exceed wages (red) for the first time - indexed to 2007 -
H/t
@SuburbanDrone
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Again, patience.
Déjà vu...
The number of stocks outperforming the $SPX has crashed - to 1999 levels.
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Unless interest rates fall sharply in the coming months, the interest expense on Public Debt will soon surpass $1 trillion on an annual basis and become the largest line item in the budget.😵💫
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I did pretty well with my 2022 prediction in January for $3800 $SPX.🎯
Next year I wager once we break below $3588, we don’t make it back above.
And as risky as this sounds, because rarely has NASDAQ been negative 2 years in a row: I bet it will be negative 2 years in a row! 🏹
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Yellow to file bankruptcy July 31 - just wow
93 yr old company;
$5.25 billion in ‘22 revs;
30,000 employees
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Be careful who you worship or what you wish for Bitcoin-ers.
Michael Saylor hoarding a commodity of “limited supply” is not safe for HODLers of Bitcoin, just because price is rising.
Consider the risk:
Michael Saylor is a modern-day Nelson "Bunker" Hunt - the famous Hunt…
😭How to make a market!
This is just incredible… 😉
$MSTR “using fiat money to buy
#btc
and paying back the debt issuers in btc (essentially mstr stock which is now based on btc) who are happy to take $mstr stock because the returns are way better than the .65% they'd receive…
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“For those that don’t know, Ruffer returned 16% in the 2008 crash, nailed the 2015 flash crash, nailed the 2018 XIV (Volmaggedon) implosion, and nailed the 2020 COVID crash making $2.2B. They have a very accurate and long track record of these bets.”
H/t
@jaredhstocks
JUST IN 🚨: Ruffer LLP, the UK-based asset manager more popularly known as 50 Cent, is now allocating an all-time high two-thirds of its AUM to cash, in preparation for a 1987-style market meltdown that could occur in the next 3 months.
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I’m slightly uncomfortable tweeting this but I will anyway 🤯
IF July 2022 CPI should use 1980-based CPI calculation…
“July real-CPI = 18%
1980 real-CPI = 15%
1) July 2022 real-CPI is higher than 1980 CPI if using the same formula
2) July real-CPI is highest since 1950”
CPI inflation rate is calculated as the year-over-year CPI percent change
July CPI = June-CPI 2022 over June 2021 % change
if we display the CPI absolute value from 1950 to 2022
the chart would be terrifying approaching 300 as shown below🔥🔥🔥
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Fed is so screwed.
*US AUG. JOB OPENINGS 9.610M; EST. 8.815M
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Gundlach reminds:
Current US Govt deficit is at 8% of GDP, even if the CBO says 'magically it's going to be 4% of GDP'.
I SERIOUSLY LOVE THIS BUFFETT QUOTE:
"I could end the deficit in 5 minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of…
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As he also points out:
"$NVDA is worth more than double what the entire global semiconductor industry will see in revenue in 2023 and nearly double what it will see in 2024.
When a stock is priced at double the valuation of its entire industry's sales, it's a bubble."
$NVDA is now worth over 40% more than Berkshire...
Berkshire makes over 800% more revenue than $NVDA.
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A default cycle has started, but market doesn’t see it yet.
Today there are three times more zombie companies than during GFC. Sooner or later all of them will need to roll their debt. Spoiler, at current interest rates it will not be pretty.
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How cool is that:
BofA's points out that longer dated $SPX puts haven't been this cheap in "modern times":
"Since our data began in 2008, it has never cost less to protect against an S&P drawdown in the next 12 months." H/t
@themarketear
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When is it safe to buy small caps again?
Not until HY credit spreads blow out!
IWM outperforms SPY when HY corporate bond spreads over Treasuries are declining.
Currently, HY spreads are ~4. We need higher to really consider a durable period of small cap outperformance.…
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Under-rated tweet!
My bet: market starts to price THIS in Q4 '23/Q1 '24 and doesn't wait until next June!!!
"$0.9T of the 1.1T in Bills was funded by withdrawals from RRP (roughly 80% of issuance)
Draining RRP funds allows the Treasury to issue nearly a trillion per quarter of…
The Federal government can run a multi-trillion $ deficit right now with minimal consequence, because they are simply raiding the $2.3T piggy bank that was sitting in the RRP
We’re now down to $1.4T remaining in RRP, enough to fund another 9-10 months of spending @ current rate
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Best run hedge fund out there.
$NVDA issued a $10B buyback on the Oct lows and monetized with a $10B shelf offering in March. He’s doing it again!
This is how the game is played! $NVDA posts okay results, but really strong outlook causes the stock to rip higher to the point where it needs to grow at 35%+ for years to generate reasonable returns. Then on a Friday afternoon, $NVDA files an updated shelf registration that…
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Simply:
Bond yields are tied to supply.
Supply of treasuries are tied to fiscal deficits.
Gigantic fiscal deficit from an irresponsible Congress forces Treasury to print massive paper as Fed tries to dampen the affects from inflation caused by govt spending with ineffective…
Why didn't bond yields rise more when inflation was 9%?
I don't know
Why are bond yields rising so fast now that inflation has fallen?
I don't know
Where do rates go from here?
I don't know
Is the bond mkt dumber than we give it credit for?
Possibly
Hope that helps
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Swiss National Bank selling 'assets' isn't like Fed removing liquidity which propped up equity market. It means SNB SELLING STOCKS.
Top 5 stock holdings (3/31/22) at 20.3%:
$AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $TSLA $GOOGL
A different kind of QT but same market result:⏬
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Oil consumption is still growing but oil supply isn’t.
If we believe Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, S.A. can increase production to 13 mb/d, “after which the kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production.”
So Peak Oil meets forced Peak Oil Demand 2023.
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OMG THIS IS FUCKING BRILLIANT
(And mama doesn’t swear very often)
#Magnatar
#Nvidia
#Coreweave
#Blackrock
$NVDA
Who is Coreweave and where is their money coming from? Nobody is asking!🧐
#Coreweave
#Nvidia
$NVDA
#Magnetar
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So...Ned Davis’ global recession model shows 92.11% chance we are in one... 😳
$SPX $VIX
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Another interesting $NVDA tidbit:
"39% of Q2 revenue and 32% of first half revenue came from JUST TWO CUSTOMERS (emphasis mine), of which one is a distributor."
It's one thing to pull forward demand on China (now Middle East) 'embargo' list, but that's some concentration risk!
NVIDIA $NVDA filed its last quarter's Form 10-Q today. If you have been as surprised by the share price action and the (unaudited) published financials as I have been, this thread is for you.
Let's get into it🧵
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Hope that's not a trend! 😬
US Bankruptcy filings through JUST June 2023!
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2000 peak vs now:
Tech sector traded at 2x its profit share vs 1.25x now.
SPX was at a 25x forward P/E vs 20x now.
Translation:
S&P 500 would need to reach 6250 to price-in same level of irrational exuberance as 1999-esque - per Soc Gen
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Bankruptcies are expected to surge sadly, if SLOOS is any indication. Leads by 6-9 mos.
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Banks have some balls.
We won't participate in U.S. Treasury markets if you don't backstop us AND "permanently exclude on-balance sheet US Treasuries from total leverage exposure". 🙈🙅
Banks: If we report this Economy will collapse
Fed: Say no more, you've got one year
One year later...
Banks: We didn't do anything to fix it
Fed: Say no more, you've got two years
Two years later...
Banks: It's not gonna happen can we just make it permanent
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Insider selling at large.🤯
Announced Stock buybacks more than tripled for January at $132B - a record - 15% higher than last January.
Hate to say it bulls, but…
Looking more and more like SOLD-TO-YOU™️
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Right after my post on $NVDA data center 'beat' went viral (few million impressions) on 08.24.23...
WSJ did a puff piece on CoreWeave 08.25.23:
Then Bloomberg announces 08.30.23 that Nvidia-backed CoreWeave is looking for a…
SORRY FOLKS 🤯🔝
CoreWeave:
Is backed by $NVDA
Buys $2.3B in $NVDA chips
With $2.3B LOC financed by Blackrock
Using the the $2.3B $NVDA chips as collateral
Blackrock owns 182M shares of $NVDA
$NVDA claims $2.3B data center beat
$NVDA gaps up 11% in AH - of which ALL was unwound…
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Irony: US policies undermining O&G investments in name of ESG was just exporting pollution to Russia, China, SA to deal with 'dirty oil'. But now, "How dare they cut!"
Curious: So US oil output cuts (via bans/regulations against drilling, fracking etc) shouldn't be counted...🤔
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: OPEC OIL OUTPUT CUTS ARE DETRIMENTAL FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY - FT.
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US high yield OAS is breaking out above resistance to suggest a year-long risk-off bottom for this credit spread. BofA
Widening of credit spreads are bearish as is price distribution under the indices past year.
Big ol' H&S top that trillions under management can now see. $SPX
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My absolute favorite chart going into 2020 ...
Trend Reversal Timing Tool has worked 7 out of 8 times since 1999. Heck of a timing tool! Can we go for 9?! 😉
#GAAP
$SPX
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This just blew my mind:
Coke is the
#1
item purchased on the largest government nutrition program (SNAP). And this author asserts over 40% of $KO US revenue comes from food stamps. 🤯👎
40.2% (!) of Coca-Cola's U.S. revenue comes from SNAP benefits (food stamps)
What an evil use of taxpayer money.
Here's the math:
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FED WANTS INFLATION
We get 6% in Fed Funds rate (soonish) with my call (since last year) of 4.7% in 10Y.
WHY HIKE if inflation has fallen?
The Rich (Big $ Cash) earn 6% AND interest on US Govt debt ($32+T) pays 6%.
That’s STIMULUS! 🔥
Think GDP growth 😉
Which further…
Higher for longer it is…. 2% inflation target means they will raise fed funds to 6% by the end of the yearl
Keep dismissing me and saying Fed is cutting or pivoting soon....
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There is no other lady-like way to say this...
Gold smells a market melt-up and is telling Nasdaq to slow the f*** down.
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Serious question:
Why is Bitcoin “squirreled away & doesn't trade”?
A CURRENCY is by definition a means of exchange, and that is in active circulation.
A COMMODITY is by definition a raw material that can be bought and sold, and that is in active circulation.
An ASSET is by…
@BFairclough23
@Dr_Gingerballs
@LynAldenContact
Yes
#NotYourKeysNotYourCoins
It matters that, unlike other commodities (incl gold), there's no clearinghouse for
#bitcoin
, which can paper over "temporary" insolvency--nor will there ever be, most likely, bc the vast majority of
#BTC
is already squirreled away & doesn't trade
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OMG I MADE MORNINGSTAR 🤯
And not in a good way!!
Bernstein analyst Wallace Witkowski discredits me as 'Twitter rando' - not by name but it’s my original tweet he’s attacking! While completely ignoring the slimy connection of $NVDA to CoreWeave and Magnatar!
@JG_Nuke
What on…
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Did anyone else miss Yellen on the soapbox today?
Well, here's a snippet:
"US Treasury Secretary Yellen has stated that President Biden's proposed 5% minimum tax on Americans with USD 100 million in wealth would encompass unrealized capital gains."
UNREALIZED GAINS ya say?…
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WOW
I take nothing for granted. I am deeply humbled and grateful for this story.
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💯- 'People must survive price levels, not rate of change.'
Another words:
How Wall Street measures inflation is different from how Main Street measures inflation (and neither are measuring Monetary Inflation which is the driver of both.)
As 'Rudy' shows:
This chart of…
I'll make this easy on you.
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Can’t help but look at this famous Buffett indicator and wonder how high it would have been in 2000 with the trillions in stimulus/printing like we’ve had past few years.
Then I remember:
Greenspan eased just before…
“The first time the Fed experimented with running a high…
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$NVDA insider sales over the past 12 months with zero buys. Curious eh?
Nvidia Insider Trading Alert 🚨
Mark Stevens, the 2nd largest Nvidia shareholder and board member since 2008, just sold more than $25 million worth of $NVDA shares.
The company's CFO also sold roughly $2.3 million worth of shares.
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NY FED will offer $1 Trillion in Overnight REPO everyday this week 🤯
Waat is going on with Citadel, Millenial, Bridgewater?!
This doesn't bode well as bonds sell off aggressively in $TLT $LQD while $VIX stays bid + NYC prepares to close.
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This tweet got no respect, but I think it bears reminding. Lol
Not only are $NVDA sales sales down 14% from 1yr ago, AND they offered no guidance, but just YESTERDAY, the NVDA CEO Huang warned they are worried about losing the China market.
“'our hands tied behind our back”…
NVDA q1 2022 eps $1.18 q1 2022 revenue $8.29B
NVDA q1 2023 eps $1.09 q1 2023 revenue $7.19B
People are stupid as fuck
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I mean, how can $NVDA not beat?
#Earnings
😂
“American Cannabis Company shifts focus from cannabis to datacenters, merging with HyperScale Nexus. Despite a small $2M market cap and $18M revenue, ACC ambitiously commits to a Bangkok data center project and plans a $1.1B purchase…
Nvidia H100 GPUs Saga: American Cannabis Company's Billion-Dollar Mirage
American Cannabis Company, an OTC ($AMMJ) company that provides advisory and consulting services to the cannabis industry, announced on September 5, 2023, its merger with a newly incorporated datacenter…
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What the...!!!
VIX dealers are massively short the $VIX.
Like massively, relatively.
VIX Calls Dealer Positioning 0%tile?
💩
Outliers revert with velocity.
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So tired of this narrative:
‘Getting inflation back to Fed's 2% mandate requires a slowing of wage growth which requires softening labor markets.’
No, it requires FISCAL CONSTRAINT!
Which will definitely be a drag on economy, labor and equity markets.
Fed is trapped/impotent.…
Great Question!
I was told early and often:
“Bond guys are the smartest in the room.”
That pissed me off because I didn’t really understand this specialized but critical function of the market, and I wasn’t a guy!
Still true: Most all financial commentary is targeted to Retail…
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I heard: Revenues down 20%, eps down 30%, operating income declines by 60%...
But clearly the afterhours momo crowd heard:
AI, chatGBT and AI-As-A-Service (AAAS)!!!
But this👇smells like
#SoldToYou
coming soon.
$NVDA
*NVIDIA $NVDA: WE WILL ACCELERATE AI BY A MILLION PERCENT
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Two things I can’t get out of my mind:
Oil continues higher, much higher, and Fed refuses to really hike rates/tighten for fear of crushing bonds, equities and the economy.
Which is what happens either way.
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"Bees don't waste their time explaining to flies why honey is better than sh*t"
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I know I'm ruining the 1999-Druckenmiller FOMO warning, but...
Here's a Dealer Gamma chart:
Dealers are buyers - whether we sell off to $4900 or break higher to $5100.
Unless/Until we get a MACRO trigger to disrupt the flows, there is more risk of an UPSIDE CRASH than downside…
Stanley Druckemiller
“I literally sold the top range in the 1999 tech bubble but it went up another 30% while I was in cash and was tired of seeing stocks up, so I couldn’t take it anymore and got back in, little did i know I bought the top and lost $3 billion that year”
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The wealthiest 10% of U.S. households now own nearly 93% of the stock market.
Because US Govt continues to privatize profits and socialize losses.
Ownership of equities suggests that US democratic shareholder capitalism is more myth than reality: While it's true that a record high 58% of American households do own stocks via mutual funds or as individual shares, in the aggregate the amount of stock most of these folks own…
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Japan is the largest holder of US debt and equities, holding over 1.1 Trillion US dollars worth of debt.
BOJ is making hawkish sounds just as the rest of the world's central banks are pausing.
2021-2023 were the years when the Yen had an incredible bear market due to YCC –…
@SamanthaLaDuc
Can you explain why this would be negative for us bonds or how this will impact the us market?
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Japan economy falls into recession. Nikkei at highs.
Germany has been in an industrial recession. DAX at highs.
UK economy falls into recession. (FTSE who cares)
But US markets at all time highs because we “have” AI FOMO, productivity & wage inflation to delay recession. ⏳
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Now that mainstream media is questioning $NVDA accounting, what about …. $MSFT 😬
@philoinvestor
has a great piece on this financial engineering/valuation that is being ignored:
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Great Question!
I was told early and often:
“Bond guys are the smartest in the room.”
That pissed me off because I didn’t really understand this specialized but critical function of the market, and I wasn’t a guy!
Still true: Most all financial commentary is targeted to Retail…
If stocks were down over 50% everyone would be losing their mind.
But long bonds are down over 50% and everyone is super chill.
Why do you think that is?
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Liquidity is all that matters to market returns, and we have an ABUNDANCE of fake liquidity but SCARCITY of quality collateral.
So… a government pumping liquidity to backstop a shortage of collateral is not bullish the economy - Big Picture - it only:
1. delays hyperinflation…
Overall
#liquidity
has remained stagnant since the October lows other than the brief surge for bailing out the
#regional
#banks
in March.
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Tomorrow should be fun.
$NVDA $MSFT
Rumor: Microsoft has reportedly started cutting orders for Nvidia H100 chips as hype over ChatGPT fades and worse than expected subscriptions for Microsoft 365 Copilot, media report, saying the rumor tanked AI server related shares in Taipei on Tuesday. $MSFT $NVDA…
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Soros is out all $NVDA stock and Drukenmiller has sold 1/3 of his position.
Maybe they read my article?🤷♀️
Soros Fund Management, the asset manager for billionaire George Soros' Open Society Foundations, has sold its 10,000 shares in Nvidia, $NVDA, and added 80,000 shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactoring Company, $TSMC.
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THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO LOOK!
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, you bastard, who just launched a smear campaign on my call and Jack’s research… IS LONG $NVDA!!
And with a much much bigger platform to espouse his pathetic excuse for a rebuttal.
As
@JG_Nuke
creatively reminds…
Why is
@MarketWatch
running interference for
@Coreweave
with personal attacks against myself,
@SamanthaLaDuc
and
@kashyap286
while ignoring a mushroom cloud of smoke on the horizon?
Full disclosure: 'Puerile' Content
#Rando
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Bulls believe this rally is driven by fundamentals.
Enter: Matt King of Citibank
🫰 $1 trillion in liquidity has entered over the last 3 months & is worth directly ~10% in global equities and ~50bps off investment grade credit spreads.⏳
Not a coincidence.
Not fundamentals.
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@Lisa00007369
Interesting - serious question then:
If one Bitcoin is sold in units of "Sats," and there are over 2 quadrillion of those, HOW can they claim scarcity, lack of dilution, hedge against inflation/DEBASEMENT.
This would seem to be common knowledge and well, “MATH”?
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Here comes $NVDA! And they want you to believe their annual revenues are exponential. 🤔
"Not only does Nvidia need the PERCEIVED crypto/bitcoin proof of work to fend off the REALITY of Moore’s Law, but I would also contend that Nvidia needs the PERCEIVED AI hype to fend off the…
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Bulls, not so fast...
#CPI
yday had some irregularities which will correct itself in the next print. In fact, re-inflation of energy is also likely to trigger higher CPI.
Gordon makes a great point:
"had health care costs stayed constant, Oct. CPI would have been ~5bps HIGHER"
1/6 What if I told you the CPI surprise yesterday was partially due to a periodic adjustment, that won't be reflected in the Fed-favored "core PCE" that comes out right ahead of the Dec. Fed meeting? Well, that's JUST what happend. That is, the CPI for health insurance (which...
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Bill Gates going Growth To Value in a big way for his portfolio.
And lots of tech names where he is divesting 100%.
Gates, Zuck, Bezos … even Tommy Tuberville - in the selling mood. 🤷♀️🤔
H/t
@NGLFundamentals
Bill Gates has done a lot of selling in Q4 2023
Reduced his portfolio by 65%
And only holding deep value stocks now, similar to that of Buffett
Time to prepare
$SPY $QQQ
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And you thought $NVDA pulled forward demand on Biden’s new China policy…
CoreWeave takes out massive loan 3 wks ago => its total mkt cap💥 to “buy”$NVDA H100 chips, collateralized by those same chips 🤯 that happens to = NVDA’s data center beat 😂
PE “asset-based” financing…
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Bespoke: "S&P now exactly flat on a total return basis since the close on Powell's first rate hike on 3/16/22."
So bulls are excited because 500bp higher in rate hikes meant nothing to equities?
We'll never know because price discovery hasn't been allowed.
A better question:…
Wow: The S&P500 is exactly flat since the Fed started to hike rates. Imagine, we went from 0 to 5%+ rates and equities are… fine. 🥹 We did see a 17% max drawdown last fall… but all of that is now recovered.
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One chart on bond performance.
Two cryptic thoughts:
1. Risk parity got sick with Covid, but became terminally ill from deglobalization, war + global energy crisis.
2. Bonds are stocks without circuit breakers.
$TNX
#OOTT
$USD
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told ya they would beat 😉😆💃
$NVDA 4Q DATA CENTER REVENUE BEATS BY $1.2B. Lol
"Despite a small $2M market cap and $18M revenue, ACC ambitiously commits to a Bangkok data center project and plans a $1.1B purchase of Nvidia GPUs from xFusion."
I mean, how can $NVDA not beat?
#Earnings
😂
“American Cannabis Company shifts focus from cannabis to datacenters, merging with HyperScale Nexus. Despite a small $2M market cap and $18M revenue, ACC ambitiously commits to a Bangkok data center project and plans a $1.1B purchase…
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In a nutshell:
Hiking cycles end when the FF rate meets the 2-year. h/t
@McClellanOsc
Telling ya right now, market has not priced this in and growth has not corrected enough. But that's my book; you do you.
$QQQ $NYFANG
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It wasn't a glitch 😉
#2YR
After we were told a couple of days ago that the break out of the 2-year
#Treasury
yield was fake/bad data (even though it appeared on multiple platforms before disappearing). The 2-year Treasury yield is breaking out again.
Must just be bad data again... Definitely not at all…
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While everyone is fawning over $FB + flat markets, a friendly reminder:
* Breadth is terrible under the surface
* $VIX is bid
* Mid-cap tech wreck is not done
* $TSLA is toast
* $ACWI is rolling over
* FX volatility is no joke &
* Nasdaq 100 is sporting a giant reversal top!
⏳
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You sure you want to hop on the DEFLATION bandwagon?
My advice: KNOW YOUR TIMEFRAME
From my vantage point:
Inflation is more than sticky.
It's above trend and entrenched.
1/x
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What is your plan if US yields crash up and not equities?
If you don't have one, it is time to get one.
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ALL OF THIS HAPPENED.
We are close. $SPX should tag that belligerent wkly gap at 4218.70, even overshoot to $4300, and turn south decisively.
Or, we just start to go back to $3600 ~now.
BULLISH BACKSTOP
*Ranked
Macro:
Global CB liquidity/intervention
Quant:
Fed-induced VIX suppression
Intermarket:
USD falls relatively
Fundamental:
Company profits withstand higher prices with higher prices
Technical:
SPX ranges/stays >$3600
Sentiment:
We climb wall of worry
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$AAPL is not only dependent on China for manufacturing + logistics for a good chunk of product sales (60-70%?) AND derives 18%/annual revenues...
BUT “Made in China” is now a liability given US economic war on China (Huawei, semi ban, Taiwan).
Retaliation risk is not priced in.
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Again, this is a very unserious market.
Gold miner Nilam Resources is up 1900% today after they announced to buy 24,800
#Bitcoin
This is a wild story 🤣
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More than 99%…
That’s the % of U.S. bank accounts that hold less than $250K according to the FDIC.
But yes, you guessed it: FDIC proposing to protect the 1%.
“massive sums of cash put into high-dollar accounts still leaves enormous amounts of money uninsured. In 2021, almost…
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If I was running for president, I would have a very straightforward platform:
‘You can have a mild recession with me or a deep and prolonged one with these other guys.’
I would have my Top 5 list of policies to fix:
Deficit, Taxes, Rates, Dollar, Energy.
Once we fix those 5,…
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We have transitioned from Monetary Dominance to Fiscal Dominance.
This isn't your 1970s yield curve inversion.
Where Volker loudly yelled at Congress for rising deficits while aggressively raising rates.
Inflation is compounding as fiscal deficits exponentially grow all the…
An inverted yield curve no longer a reliable indicator for recession, said 22 of 34 strategists per Reuters.
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What was I saying about EXIT liquidity last week?
Now see retail IN-flows…
Goldman: Hedge funds have net sold US equities in 9 of the past 10 trading sessions (99th percentile over the last five years).
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Bank stress is most certainly not over.
As Randy also points out, FHLB advances for 2Q23 are estimated to exceed $1Trillion, which will negatively impact bank NIMs. (Translation: that’s bad .)
BTFP borrowing hits $100bil. About 50% of my bank clients won't use it because they fear possible "stigma" issues. That said, my guess as this number increases, some of them will use because most are heavily borrowed at the FHLB at much less favorable terms.
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THIS would be amazing if they could pull this off.
Can you imagine the fiscal savings our nation would realize just from the removal of insider trading by Congress, special interest kick-backs and bloated pork programs?!?
Mind blowing-ly bullish - if it happens.
Vegas odds?
JUST IN: Matt Gaetz said he'll change the motion to vacate threshold IF Congress enacts Rep Ro Khanna reform plan that:
- bans Congress stock trading
- bans Congress from lobbying
- 12 year term limits
- ban lobbyist/PAC donations
Khanna mentioned Unusual Whales in the plan!
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I found another $NVDA 'customer'!
#Coreweave
#Magnetar
#Novogratz
and now
#Tether
🤯
Who could forget the controversy behind this scam!
Well, for those who care, here's ANOTHER shell company said to be buying Nvidia chips.
Oh, the company they keep!…
But ... 96% "VC Exit Predictor" 😂
That's cuz they know how to play this game called: EXIT LIQUIDITY
#AI
$NVDA
#Coreweave
#Magnetar
#Novogratz
No wonder we've been attacked in mainstream media. They don't want investors to see that Michael Novogratz introduced CoreWeave to…
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$1 Trillion added debt in just 15 WKS! 🤯
The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion.
Interest payments threatening to eat up half the tax receipts may be the only disciplinary force left to deal with Congress
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I know I have barely 30K followers, am way underestimated, but to those who have graced me with their presence and loyalty...
⚠️BRACE FOR IMPACT if bulls don't defend HERE😬
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It’s been awhile since I updated my twitter profile pic.
It’s a 10 yr old photo. 😳
Well I had my 1st pro photo shoot evah 🤩 (for our new upcoming website) 🎉and I would appreciate your help choosing out of these ten if you’ve got a minute 🙏
You decide!
A. B.
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12:45 announcement cemented it:
🔴 FED BIDS FOR 30-YEAR BOND TOTAL $0.
Bond bulls must defend here.
When/if 10Y gets back above 4.9%...
BRACE FOR IMPACT. $VIX
@SamanthaLaDuc
"Stocks Plunge, Yields Soar After Horrific 30Y Auction Tails Most In Two Years"
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Best thing you’ll read this morning!
Drukenmiller’s take on gold I expected. Then Stanley tells us what he really thinks will happen under a Trump Presidency! 👇
“Trump is a big spender. He doesn’t believe in the Federal Reserve. And we go back to the Arthur Burns model times…
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Jack, you have outdone yourself! 🎩🚬🔥 $NVDA
From episode 1 where I ask the question: “Is end demand real?”
To episode 2 on
#CoreWeave
+
#Magnatar
Now THIS! 🤯
Maybe investors should worry about the company that $NVDA keeps!
Part 3: Suspicious Shell Companies & Carbon Credits. The History of The People Behind Coreweave 🧐 $NVDA
#Coreweave
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Lovely reminder:
#Bitcoin
is a 3x levered $QQQ play.
1/2
For anyone who doesn't already know this:
Bitcoin is essentially the same thing as triple-levered NASDAQ.
TQQQ is the 3X NASDAQ ETF.
Here, I compare how the two have behaved since 2019. They are twins, but not identical.
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