Mark Harvey
@thepowerfulHRV
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#bitcoin | Engineering and Finance Background | Technology Analysis and Investing | Macro | Views are my own
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Warren Buffett has called
#Bitcoin
"rat poison squared" and stated that "it is an asset that creates nothing".
Today, the market capitalization of $BTC surpassed that of his company, Berkshire Hathaway.
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The Charmed Life of a Baby Boomer Named James:
James was born in 1946 during a time of peace, shortly after the most deadly war in history. He begins work in 1962 at age 16, he is paid the minimum wage of $1.15 ($11.55 in today's dollars).
The minimum wage is $7.25 today.…
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Can someone explain to me how the US plans to pay down its debt; like I’m a 5 year old?
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Michael Saylor's advice for young people:
1. Focus your energy
2. Guard your time
3. Train your mind
4. Train your body
5. Think for yourself
6. Curate your friends
7. Curate your environment
8. Keep your promises
9. Stay cheerful and constructive
10. Upgrade the world
@saylor
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Michael Saylor on going “all in” on
#Bitcoin
instead of diversifying:
“How many chairs are you sitting in right now?”
H/T
@Scavacini777
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Ethereum as we know it today (ETH), is a literal and philosophical hard fork of the original idea that "code is law".
The now obscure blockchain, Ethereum Classic, (ETC) is actually the original Ethereum.
What remains is the Ethereum of today (ETH), which is a culture of…
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There are so many people advocating for an increase of the
#Bitcoin
block size limit to fit Ordinals inscription data and lower transaction fees.
These people probably just haven't been here long enough to know that an increase in block size was already attempted in 2017. The…
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Even if the Blackrock
#Bitcoin
ETF gets approved, Microstrategy $MSTR is still the better option.
Microstrategy has two major advantages:
(1) it has a cash flow generating software business, which allows it to add more $BTC to its balance sheet over time
(2) it does not charge…
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#Bitcoin
has risen by 92% in 2023 so far, but the setup for 2024 appears massive. I see five major catalysts:
1. The supply halving: The next Bitcoin supply halving is expected around April 2024. When the halving occurs, new coin issuance will drop from 900 per day to only 450.…
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I spent 10 years of my life as an options trader only to arrive at this conclusion.
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A single
#Bitcoin
is worth $30,000 right now. More than most people can afford. Fortunately, you can purchase a fraction of a Bitcoin, because Bitcoins are divisible.
A single Bitcoin can be divided into 100,000,000 smaller units called Satoshis, or Sats for short. Similar to…
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The next
#Bitcoin
supply halving is about 1 year away (est. April 2024).
After the supply halving, $BTC will have a stock-to-flow ratio that is lower than even Gold.
Bitcoin's market cap is currently less than 10% of Gold's market cap. If the Bitcoin market cap was to match…
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Comparing major
#Bitcoin
cycles: All time high, to bottom, back to the all time high.
This cycle, Bitcoin experienced its most mild drawdown ever (-77%), despite the Fed rapidly increasing interest rates from ~0% to 5.25%, major crypto exchanges blowing up, and a regulatory…
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How high can
#Bitcoin
price go?
$BTC is competing with all assets which are used to store value, which I estimate to be around $872 trillion in total. Bitcoin currently represents only 0.1% of that total.
Bitcoin has properties which make it superior to all other assets that…
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Ethereum’s proof of stake is really Proof of Wealth.
1. It takes 32 $ETH ($56,000) to participate in the staking contract.
2. The system gives staking rewards to people with the the most ETH tokens disproportionately. Large ETH holders are early investors and insiders, meaning…
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It’s impolite to tell people “I told you so” about
#Bitcoin
.
Instead try:
“I remember sharing my perspective on Bitcoin, and things unfolded the way I anticipated”
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Ethereum is the largest and most successful attack on
#Bitcoin
.
However, the Ethereum Foundation made the fatal mistake of switching to proof of stake.
The switch to proof of stake...
1. Removed the security mechanism from the protocol, and introduced a human controlled…
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All "cryptos" are going to 0*
*when priced in $BTC
The image below are the most popular cryptos listed on Coinmarketcap this day 5 years ago.
Their price performance relative to $BTC since then:
Ethereum (ETH): -10%
Ripple (XRP): -82%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): -97%
EOS: -98%…
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#Bitcoin
has completely obsoleted the monetary use case for gold. Gold has become an un-investable asset.
Gold fails as an inflation hedge, as the price of gold has not even kept pace with the growth in US money supply since the beginning of 2020.
Denominated in $BTC, gold is…
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Stone Ridge Asset Management, with over $20B under management, operates on a Bitcoin Standard. From their 2023 investor letter:
"Since 2017, bitcoin has been Stone Ridge’s treasury reserve asset because of my extreme aversion to risk. We run net short USD – which is fancy way of…
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The MicroStrategy Corporate
#Bitcoin
flywheel:
1. $MSTR buys $BTC with cash flows, debt, or equity issuance.
2. $BTC price goes up (it always will).
3. $MSTR stock price goes up with BTC.
4. Stock price allows MicroStrategy to recruit the most talented people.
5.…
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The number of of
#Bitcoin
addresses with a balance greater than $1, $10, $100, and $1000:
There are now 40M $BTC addresses with a balance greater than $1.
The number of addresses with a balance greater than $1, $10, $100, and $1000 have increased 16%, 18%, 23%, and 32%…
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#Bitcoin
has probably already reached escape velocity.
The higher the price goes, the more liquid, desirable, and secure it becomes. The more liquid, desirable, and secure it becomes, the higher the price goes. 🔁
This feedback loop is unique to the digital asset Bitcoin, and…
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Elon Musk articulating the importance of proof of work(POW) in
#Bitcoin
vs proof of stake (POS) in
#Ethereum
.
POS is just abstract rules made up by humans. Rules made by humans can be broken, manipulated, and taken advantage of.
The POW security model is backed by physics. The…
@MuskUniversity
Physics is the law, everything else is a recommendation.
Anyone can break laws created by people, but I have yet to see anyone break the laws of physics.
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MicroStrategy has been able to outperform the underlying
#Bitcoin
price mostly because of its use of leverage.
Specifically, $MSTR took on a total of $2.2 billion in debt to purchase its BTC, the earliest of which matures at the end of 2025. This debt has a blended interest rate…
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The cost to run an Ethereum full node is out of reach for most people. The cost to run an $ETH validator is out of reach for nearly all people.
The ETH staking model will naturally trend towards centralization through entities like Coinbase, Kraken, and Lido which offer…
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I’m a single issue voter. I only care about
#Bitcoin
stuff.
Ron DeSantis so far has my vote because he (1) likes Bitcoin, (2) actually stands a chance of winning, (3) is not a million years old.
I’m sold.
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MicroStrategy finances much of its
#Bitcoin
purchases by selling new shares of $MSTR stock.
So far, this has not been "dilutive" for shareholders.
Meaning, even though MicroStrategy sells lots of MSTR shares, each share still represents the same or more amount of underlying…
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At $34,000,
#Bitcoin
has now surpassed Tesla in terms of market capitalization and is currently setting its sights on Berkshire Hathaway.
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I bet $MSTR will outperform any spot
#Bitcoin
ETF from a price perspective over the long term.
$MSTR has two main advantages over an ETF structure:
1) No fees to hold. An ETF will charge an ~0.4% fee annually on the assets it holds. Over time, the fees compound, resulting in…
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Proof of stake explained simply by
@LynAldenContact
:
“[staking ETH] would be like a political system where you get a vote for every hundred dollars you have, and then also get paid a dollar by the government for casting each vote. Mary the high school science teacher with…
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MicroStrategy $MSTR is a synthetic $BTC miner.
Its core enterprise software business is in no way correlated with the price of
#Bitcoin
, giving it an advantage over actual BTC miners in bear markets.
Their strategy has been proven: relentless BTC stacking in both bear and…
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“I bought
#Bitcoin
, my goal is to buy more
#Bitcoin
”
#Bitcoin
not a speculation; it is an exit strategy.
From
@stephanlivera
podcast
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Anything Ethereum can do, Solana can do better
Anything Solana can do, Amazon Web Services can do better
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Even after the pullback to ~$43,000 today, $BTC is still well above its 4-year simple moving average of $29,400.
As always, I will purchase small amounts of $BTC each day using an auto-buy, until I retire.
However, if the price pulls back below its 4-year simple moving…
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Tomorrow:
a) The Fed pauses interest rate hikes before hitting their inflation target. Credibility in the Fed system is lost.
#Bitcoin
pulls a Bitsignal(see chart below).
b) The Fed raises rates despite banking failures, exacerbating the systematic banking crisis. Credibility…
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#Bitcoin
has made it hard for me to justify investing in any stocks at current prices.
Everything else seems too risky when compared to BTC, a perfect form of money with a 68% 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
In my mind, any potential stock would have to outperform…
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Currently reading: The Creature from Jekyll Island
Reading this book during times of banking failures is pretty eerie.
The biggest insight I've gained so far is that banking crisis and bailout by FDIC/the Fed is something that happens again, and again, and again. The system is…
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A single
#Bitcoin
is worth $35,000 right now. More than most people can afford. Fortunately, you can purchase a fraction of a Bitcoin, because Bitcoins are divisible.
A single Bitcoin can be divided into 100,000,000 smaller units called Satoshis, or Sats for short. Similar to…
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Chamath trying to describe a solution to banking failures, while unintentionally describing
#Bitcoin
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#Bitcoin
’s 21 million coin supply cap is credible, but it's still a secret because 99% of people haven’t figured this out yet.
The reason most people don't understand perfectly scarce property is that it didn't exist before the invention of Bitcoin. It's not something that most…
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Im no Solana fan but I kinda respect the community; especially compared to Ethereum.
No claims of being sound money, a future world reserve currency, or an asset that is harder than
#Bitcoin
.
Just pure honest degenerate gambling, airdropped lottery tickets, tax avoidance, and…
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Very good read from Fidelity, which manages over $4.5 Trillion in assets.
I would recommend it as a first read for anyone generally curious but skeptical about
#Bitcoin
.
Since Fidelity likely already manages part of their retirement savings, they would feel reassured knowing…
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When the gold price goes up, they mine more of it.
When a stock price goes up, they issue more shares.
When the price of
#bitcoin
goes up, nothing happens. The price just went up.
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Nassim dismisses
#Bitcoin
as a cult, but investing in assets that have a cult-like following is the smart thing to do.
Below are the 10 year returns of assets which have a cult-like following compared to the NASDAQ:
Bitcoin $BTC: +30,604%
Tesla $TSLA: +3,463%
Apple $AAPL:…
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This is the most bullish
#Bitcoin
chart anywhere on the internet.
The world is massively short dollars.
From
@parkeralewis
article, Bitcoin is Not a Hedge:
“Today, there is approximately $92 trillion in dollar-denominated debt in the U.S. credit system but there are “only”…
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How secure is your
#Bitcoin
private key? Andreas explains it so well. This video is worth watching.
Summary:
Chances of two people randomly picking the same gain of sand on all the beaches on earth: 1 in 10^20
Chances of two people randomly picking the same molecule from any…
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How high can
#Bitcoin
's price go? My basic math suggests that a price greater than $17 million per coin is likely.
Studying BTC as a Store-of-Value (SOV) can provide some clarity.
$BTC has tremendous upside because, as a new technology, it currently represents only 0.1% of the…
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A massive boom
#Bitcoin
hash rate since China banned Bitcoin mining:
Network hash rate is currently around 370 EH/s compared to 100 EH/s after China's attempt to ban $BTC mining in May 2021.
The China ban serves as an excellent example of what happens when you try to attack the…
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The most popular altcoins from the last halving cycle have failed to surpass their previous all-time high (ATH) prices from the last cycle.
#Bitcoin
is the only major asset to do so.
In my opinion, too many altcoin traders are taking it for granted that alts will outperform $BTC…
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Returns so far this year:
MicroStrategy: +197%
CleanSpark: +110%
NVIDIA: +87%
#Bitcoin
: +66%
Ethereum: +56%
Meta Platforms: +41%
S&P 500: +9%
NASDAQ: +9%
Gold: +5%
Dow Jones: +4%
Avg. BTC Miner (equal weight): -3%
Marathon Digital: -13%
Riot Platforms: -22%
Tesla: -30%
Oil:…
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Crowding out effect: The Fed could break Ethereum's staking model with high-interest rates.
The 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.7%, which is greater than the ETH staking reward of 3.9%.
Investors are at a crossroads: they can either lend money to the US government at a higher…
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#Bitcoin
is peaceful. It has gone from 0-$1 trillion without a single shot fired.
Government issued money is (literally) only backed by violence.
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Returns so far this year:
MicroStrategy: +62%
NVIDIA: +60%
CleanSpark: +52%
#Bitcoin
: +46%
Meta Platforms: +38%
Marathon Digital: +10%
S&P 500: +7%
NASDAQ: +7%
Dow Jones: +4%
Gold: -1%
Avg. BTC Miner (equal weight): -10%
Tesla: -19%
Oil: +10%
10-Year Treasury Yield: +10%…
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Switching to proof of stake 7 years after launching was like trying to replace an airplane's engine while in mid-flight.
At the same time, the switch made it blatantly clear that ETH is not a decentralized,
#Bitcoin
-like asset, but is actually under the complete control of a few…
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Unpopular opinion: The US has been in a “depression” since 2008 when interest rates hit 0%.
It just doesn’t feel that way to most people because the economy has had a band-aid on it in the form of non-stop Quantitative Easing which has inflated asset prices, and created a…
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So far, over the long run,
#Bitcoin
's price has always gone up, but it may accelerate due to passive inflows from workers' retirement savings.
Basic math suggests that at least $42 billion per year of cash from workers' retirement savings will be allocated to BTC, which already…
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In the short term,
#Bitcoin
will always trade in a manner the crowd least expects:
1. The $BTC price had never dipped below the all-time high (ATH) price of the previous cycle, but it did in 2022 when it dropped to ~$15.5K, whereas the ATH of the previous cycle was $20k. ✅
2.…
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Microstrategy $BTC on balance sheet by quarter:
Despite the turbulent market, $MSTR has increased it's
#Bitcoin
holdings every quarter since they adopted the Bitcoin standard in August 2020.
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#Bitcoin
is backed by more power than the entire US Navy
What (Who) is Ripple $XRP backed by? 🤔
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#Bitcoin
is the first store of value in history which has a supply that is unaffected by its demand.
$BTC is better at being gold, than gold.
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Internet challenge:
Can anyone name one use case for Ethereum that...
(1) isn't already done more securely on
#Bitcoin
?
(2) isn't crime in the United States?
(3) and can't be run more efficiently using regular hosting like Amazon Web Services?
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MicroStrategy today announced the purchase of an additional 16,130 BTC for approximately $593.3 million.
What may have been overlooked is that they have also entered into an agreement to sell up to $750 million in shares, with the intention of buying even more
#Bitcoin
.
That…
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$BTC exchanges take your $, but don’t actually have your BTC on their books
Because if this, the BTC price does not reflect actual demand, resulting in a lower BTC price📉
It’s your duty as a
#Bitcoin
’er to withdraw coins into cold storage so that price reflects demand📈
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Epic stream of consciousness from
@saylor
on Peter Schiff and risks in
#Bitcoin
in a 2021 interview with
@DrBrianKeating
.
Saylor’s metaphor game is unparalleled.
From: Into The Impossible podcast
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$MSTR has increased its $BTC holdings for 15 consecutive quarters since it began its
#Bitcoin
Strategy, and currently holds 214,246 BTC valued at $14.8 billion today.
$MSTR has actually accelerated its $BTC purchases in recent quarters, with a 20% increase in its $BTC position…
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Tesla Deaths by year:
2012: Can't scale the Model S
2013: No margin for Model S
2014: No Demand for Model S
2015: Can't build the Model X
2016: No Demand for Model S/X
2017: Can't build the Model 3
2018: No margin for Model 3
2019: No Demand for Model 3
$TSLA, $TSLAQ
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#Bitcoin
vs. M1 of countries
$BTC's market cap has quickly surpassed the M1 of both Canada and Australia.
Internet money is now in the top 10.
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401k or
#Bitcoin
for retirement? My thoughts that are not investment advice:
401Ks are advantageous investment vehicles because they deduct from your paycheck pre-tax, and many employers will also match your contribution up to a certain point.
But, in the end, does it make…
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Elon Musk unintentionally articulated the importance of Proof of Work (POW) mining used in
#Bitcoin
, versus Proof of Stake (POS) used in
#Ethereum
and other altcoins.
POS consists of abstract rules made up by humans. Rules created by humans can be broken, corrupted, and taken…
@MuskUniversity
Physics is the law, everything else is a recommendation.
Anyone can break laws created by people, but I have yet to see anyone break the laws of physics.
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Denying citizens access to a proof of work technology like
#Bitcoin
would be a “strategic nightmare”.
Protect
@JasonPLowery
at all costs.
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Jamie Dimon is wrong.
I have never used my
#Bitcoin
for money laundering, tax evasion, or sex trafficking.
and certainly not for "trading", because I don't sell my Bitcoin.
I use
#Bitcoin
to save money.
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Pure Signal.
#Bitcoin
hash rate continues to smash through all time highs despite the $BTC price being down 57% from all time highs.
I'm not saying this has anything to do with Russia mining, but I'm saying this has everything to do with Russia mining.
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Ethereum, with its proof-of-stake (POS) could be destroyed if BlackRock launches an Ethereum ETF.
With POS, the more ETH you own, the more control you wield over the network. BlackRock could exert significant influence over the ETH network by staking its coins and censoring…
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On a long enough time frame, nothing will outperform
#Bitcoin
.
The top fakebitcoin tokens listed on Coinmarketcap 5 years ago, and their price performance relative to $BTC since then:
Ethereum (ETH): -25%
Ripple (XRP): -85%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): -96%
Litecoin (LTC): -81%
Cardano…
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