The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
Followers
153K
Following
34K
Media
10K
Statuses
42K
Institutional Investor. Named a top finance account by BI. Featured on WSJ, FT, Bloomberg. News Junkie. Macroeconomics, investing, markets & life.
Joined December 2014
If you’re wondering why the economy has been so resilient take a look at this thread and let me know what you think … 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻.
The stimmy keeps on coming 🍾. Inflation adjustments to social security and increases in retiree healthcare (+150bn) completely offset expiring income tax credits (-$150bn)… . Next year those two categories will rise by another $200bn yet again (~1% of GDP) with no real offset.
68
65
379
😢 🏠 . Freddie Mac House Price Index decreased 0.20% month-over-month in June, marking fifth consecutive monthly decline.
0
0
14
Arini (Credit HF) just crossed the $10bn mark which seems insane to me… he’s put up the numbers though. Wild for a 3.5y old fund though. Picked the perfect time to launch though….
1
0
16
One of the few who understands the Great Rebalancing. I'm a little harsher on grading but overall we directionally agree. Biggest high level difference is that I am less optimistic growth is going to do much for Debt/GDP levels. We need more chainsaw to get our way out of.
Re: Macro/Geopolitics-Where Are We In The Asteroid Field?. How is Trump 2.0 navigating the treacherous Asteroid Field? It's time for a report card. I evaluate the Trump 2.0 Policy Playbook across:. -Tariffs & Economic Statecraft.-Redirecting the Fiscal Red Bull.-Keeping
4
7
49
Sign of where where are in the cycle…. Carvana has 10x the market cap of Carmax with half the sales . $CVNA $KMX.
17
16
199
Good granularity….
Picking up from this morning's GDP thread:. The wild swings in net exports that flattered headline GDP weren’t just a statistical artifact - they reflect massive, tariff-driven volatility in the underlying goods trade. Let’s take a closer look in the🧵
1
0
9
Crazy Facebook is still so profitable despite blowing $4bn on Zuck’s VR labs pet project in the QUARTER.
13
10
113
Platinum is getting smoked today. (Part of my short everything that went up a bunch on speculative mania basket - in addition to names like $PLTR, $RHM and $COIN).
4
3
53
Puts are green.
Vol is too cheap. Puts and calls for next Wednesday cost 50bps. 66bps through Friday. You have earnings and FOMC coming up….
5
2
23
Crypto companies should really be using their inflated market caps to make acquisitions…. $COIN has a market cap of $97bn . Should buy someone like $NTRS and $WU and establish a global footprint with institutional investors and EM consumers.
4
1
23
Remittances account for 20% of GDP in countries like Guatemala and El Salvador.
12
3
48
TACO = Trump Always Charges On . Tariff rate on liberation day was 22%.Today it’s 18%.
11
11
134
S&P 500 has gone 23 consecutive days with moves less than 1% with 21-day realized volatility at 6.4% annualized.
7
8
65
Let’s make America tasteful again….
When ICE books you a one-way Jet2 holiday to deportation. ✈️🎶 . Nothing beats it!
6
1
39
Greatest nation on earth for shareholder value . 5% of world population .70% of world market cap .100% of your attention.
13
17
224
Just realized that part of the huge cultural gulf between Japan and US is based on religion. Japan is culturally Shinto which sees spirit in everyday objects vs the West which sees the material world as inherently fleeting. You don’t preserve a 30 year old car unless it has a.
11
7
99
Again, there is no Taco. Tariffs are almost 20%.
There is no TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade. It’s just a PAUSE. Punts Aggressively Under Stressful Events . TACO implies 1) the aggressive levels were the plan 2) the plan has been scrapped. Tariffs are here to stay. The high levels were always starting point for.
12
14
96