Ted Seides
@tseides
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🎙️Capital Allocators; 🖊️
New York, NY
Joined November 2010
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Pinned Tweet
3G Capital’s buyout of Burger King may be the most successful private equity deal you’ve never heard about. My conversation with Alex Behring and Daniel Schwartz.
With thanks to
@cartainc
.
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13
114
Seth Klarman on the current markets:
1. “This is one of the weirdest environments in the 40 years I’ve been in the investment business."
2. "People have short memories. It would be wise to think back to 1974-1975 when everything didn’t get rescued, and to imagine a bear market
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267
2K
Stat of the day:
Fortune 500 CEOs who had served in the military
1980: 59%
2021: 4%
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179
2K
Attended Goldman’s hedge fund conference today. Some thoughts from the front lines...
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530
Coming tomorrow: a conversation with
@chamath
you won’t want to miss, including his latest venture backing emerging managers.
With thanks to
@Coinbase
Prime,
@CanalystModels
and
@iconnections2
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482
My thoughts on the David Swensen's passing:
Hail to the Chief (Investment Officer)
David Swensen was my first mentor in the investment business. As I reflected on his passing this week, I felt into how much of an impact he had on my career and life.
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Hey Chief,
Rest, laugh, play some squash and softball, take in hockey and football games, smoke those cigars, and keep some seats warm.
Long time coming maybe, but still too soon by a mile.
Love you.
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428
"Be forgiving with your past self.
Be strict with your present self.
Be flexible with your future self."
–
@JamesClear
Just one hit after the next. James is in a class by himself.
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"It’s usually more important to be in the right room than to be the smartest person in the room.
A person with great judgement and average intelligence will usually beat someone with great intelligence and average judgment.
Judgment is knowing what room to be in."
–
@JamesClear
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367
Irresistible to leave this moment alone - a thread to share some investment lessons:
1/ Size matters.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed.
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355
Most anything
@morganhousel
writes is easy on the eyes and mind. This one is also magical in its application.
4
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353
Paying attention to my market-related self-talk:
-5% day: “This could be really bad.”
-5% day: “Is all that stuff I learned really true?”
+9% day: “Pat on the back for holding on. Maybe I should have bought more.”
Fear and greed playing out in real-time.
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If you’re investing with a 100-year time horizon, nothing that happens today matters. Market goes up. Market goes down 20%. There’s a crash. It doesn’t matter.
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Another gem from
@JamesClear
“Ultimately, the only way to truly be in control of your life is to be in control of your thoughts."
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"Almost 60% of all public companies since 1920 have failed to earn treasury bill returns, and they destroyed an aggregate of $9T of wealth. The other 40% have created $64T of wealth, so the aggregate wealth creation was $55T and the top 2% of that created $50T of the $55T."
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“The cure for anything is salt water - sweat, tears, or the sea” - Isak Dinesen
2
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Have always struggled with the concept of goals.
@JamesClear
crystallizes beautifully what
@patrick_oshag
calls growth without goals. Took me a month to crack open Atomic Habits and am learning on every page.
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How I Invest, part 2...offering up my personal portfolio full transparency of line items. Welcome your feedback:
1/ Core public equity (65%)
US (50%)
PSH: Pershing Square Holdings
BRK: Berkshire Hathaway
Growth basket (GOOG,AMZN,SHOP)
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A special conversation with value investing legend Seth Klarman from The Baupost Group.
With thanks to
@Wellington_Mgmt
and Inflection Point Partners LLC.
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242
"'You're probably right' has become of my favorite phrases.
When someone disagrees with you on a small matter, you can shrug, say 'you’re probably right' and move on."
Thank you
@JamesClear
for speaking directly to me!
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18
234
Big lessons of investing with incredible storytelling. My conversation with
@morganhousel
about his new book out this week.
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230
"Never be an asshole. You meet everyone twice."
- Rahul Moodgal
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When a hedge fund dude met the king of indexing...
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The always enlightening
@mjmauboussin
on this week's podcast:
- the paradox of skill
- research showing active management has potential
- decision-making
- optimal size of teams
- investing and sports
5
29
212
Big Shorts and big longs. My conversation with
@Seawolfcap
(Porter Collins) and Vincent Daniel from Seawolf Capital.
With thanks to
@Wellington_Mgmt
and Inflection Point Partners.
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41
211
Three greatest brand labels in asset management history:
1. Life insurance (umm, it's death insurance)
2. Smart beta (who doesn't want something smarter than beta)
3. Cannabis (last I heard, it was pot, weed or marijuana)
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Capital Allocators podcast hit a million downloads - quite a way to start the new year.
Special thanks to you for listening, all the great guests for their wisdom,
@patrick_oshag
for the inspiration, and
@MathewPassy
for the perspiration.
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I bought a copy of Klarman’s Margin of Safety at a place called a “bookstore” in the mid-90s.
Lent it to a classmate at business school and never got it back.
I lacked the foresight of asset appreciation to care and the memory of who I lent it to.
What’s your costly truth?
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202
The first episode of First Meeting - an inside look into
@patrick_oshag
“day job” at OSAM.
-Quantitative investing and factors
-Explore vs. Exploit
-Lessons from podcasting
-Learning loop of learn, build, share, repeat
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202
At age 19, I bought a full set of Topps cards as an investment. Found it, unopened, and worth about $30. That’s 90% of venture capital.
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If you share my passion for sports, statistics, and investing, my conversation with
@mschwimer
may rank among
#fintwit
podcast’s GOATs.
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196
"The most useful form of patience is persistence.
Patience implies waiting for things to improve on their own.
Persistence implies keeping your head down and continuing to work when things take longer than you expect."
-
@JamesClear
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Psyched to learn the new book sold as many copies in 4 months as my first one did in 5 years.
I realized
@morganhousel
sells that many during the length of his sneeze, but I’ll take it.
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1
194
Just off the phone with
@WarrenBuffett
.
Was hoping to have him share some business, sports and life stories we've chuckled about over dinners on the podcast.
But he he wants to keep listening instead. In his words, "Ted, I'm already improving your demographics."
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"Without hard work, a great strategy remains a dream.
Without a great strategy, hard work becomes a nightmare."
–
@JamesClear
I can't recommend James's 3-2-1 weekly email highly enough. It is achieving his goal of delivering the most wisdom per word of any newsletter on the web.
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AAPL: iPhone rocks
ATVI: Call of Duty
BRK/B: Dad knows Warren
GBTC: It's a no-brainer. It's Bitcoin
JPM: They make money
MSFT: Love the XBOX and love the stuff that runs my computer
NVDA: Best graphics card
TSLA: Dream car
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187
2/ WSB/Reddit captured a market inefficiency.
Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.
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Applying behavioral frameworks and good decision making in a time of crisis. Who better to ask than
@mjmauboussin
?
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179
Inside long short equity investing with
@pmje73
(Paul Enright) of Krainos Capital.
With thanks to
@teamthirdbridge
and
@JHIAdvisors
.
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174
The incomparable Thomas Russo on all things Berkshire Hathaway. And Tom reveals his latest purchase (the first in 8 years).
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A set of gems from
@morganhousel
latest:
The more perfect you try to become the more vulnerable you generally are.
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165
Grateful for the authors who shared their work on Capital Allocators!
5
15
160
Had a few too many notes about
@joelmcohen
’s tweets about emerging managers not to share some thoughts:
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“The biggest issue for hedge fund managers is many of them like themselves way too much. They're very powerful people both financially and personally, and they don't have anybody in their lives that is willing to speak truth to them.”
- Randall Stutman (EP.150)
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The challenge of maintaining both an edge and a business in investing.
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Opened an account for my 12-year old son. He picked the stocks and we created a journal for his rationale.
Here it is, verbatim. Theses Peter Lynch would love.
One day he may look back on it and smile.
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Defining an edge, deployment of process over outcome, and the analytics of lacrosse.
My conversation with
@mjmauboussin
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Today is the day! Two launches - the book and our new website.
Check out the site and sign up for our free email list at .
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With a shout out right back to
@patrick_oshag
for setting me on this path.
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146
The incomparable
@verdadcap
on private equity, public equity, and preparing for a recession.
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"A frequent complaint from analysts is they got the numbers right on a position, but the multiple contracted 50% & the stock got killed. It’s part of your job to understand what makes that multiple move. The best investments get both areas right."
- Dmitry Balyasny (EP.341)
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I just published Origins of an Investing Podcast
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16
140
A look inside the Yale Endowment - the team, managers, Investment Committee, and David Swensen's special skill.
My conversation with Charley Ellis.
With thanks to
@iconnections2
,
@NorthernTrust
, and
@TegusHQ
.
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133
"When we're stressed, we shorten our time horizons. So precisely when we should be casting our eyes out on the horizon, we sort of look down."
@mjmauboussin
(EP.127)
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19
130
A special conversation with Michael Milken.
And next week, an insider’s take on Mike’s prosecution.
With thanks to
@invest10east
and
@Nasdaq
Solovis.
6
20
130
My conversation with
@yliownyc
from
@Aravt
.
- Long-short investing
- Owning 'horses'
- Challenges with compounders
- Art of short selling
- Game selection
With thanks to:
@iconnections2
,
@NorthernTrust
,
@coinbase
, and
@JHIAdvisorsUS
.
7
19
128
Our relationship with money made simple(r).
- The purpose of money
- Wealthy vs. Rich
- Institutional vs. Private wealth
- Why volatility IS risk
My conversation with Brian Portnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth.
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123
My son picked this portfolio two years ago. He's up 11% vs. 0% for the S&P, and that's after selling GBTC at the bottom.
AAPL: iPhone rocks
ATVI: Call of Duty
BRK/B: Dad knows Warren
GBTC: It's a no-brainer. It's Bitcoin
JPM: They make money
MSFT: Love the XBOX and love the stuff that runs my computer
NVDA: Best graphics card
TSLA: Dream car
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3
127
When you buy and hold for the long term, how else do you spend your time? My conversation with Tom Russo.
5
26
125
"When feedback is immediate, clear, and concrete, people learn quickly.
When feedback is delayed, abstract, and opaque, people rarely learn."
–
@JamesClear
4
17
123
For those upset with twitter trolls, here's a beaut from our new YouTube channel:
"This f-cker has 300 subs and gets the chance to interview Chamath palihapitya (?sp) and has the f-cking nerve to throw in a ton of ads. The disrespect."
We mock what we don't understand.
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Why we're hard wired to make bad decisions and what we can do to improve our process. My conversation with decision-making expert
@AnnieDuke
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A few from
@patrick_oshag
interview with me:
“Preparation is simple, just do it.”
“You're not going to learn a lot about somebody else by talking. You're going to learn by listening.”
“Ask brief open-ended questions starting with the words how, what or why."
5
11
121
"If you buy a great business that everybody thinks is a great business, you will overpay and you will not compound."
-
@pmje73
Paul Enright (EP.26)
Thanks to
@teamthirdbridge
and
@JHIAdvisors
.
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119
“Everything in finance will be discovered and arbitraged away, except human judgement.”
- Jason Karp (FM EP.12)
3
16
117
Part 2 with Tom Russo, on his first new purchase in eight years.
2
26
116
The always insightful
@BrentBeshore
talking about the most attractively priced businesses in the US and how he buys them. Our conversation is a gem, as is his new book.
6
13
116
Check out the first episode of my new podcast, Capital Allocators. or on iTunes
6
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111
The story of the Astros, or any innovative quantamental investor. My conversation with
@BenReiter
is one of my all time favorites.
5
18
109
5/ We don't know what will happen.
Peter Bernstein’s famous line about risk. A global pandemic leading to a soaring market? Negative interest rates? Online traders crushing monster hedge funds?
Beware those who think in certainties instead of probabilities.
@AnnieDuke
1
10
105
A value investing legend on his path, innovation, the value of value, and an answer to the education problem.
My conversation with Joel Greenblatt.
1
10
106
Owning stocks for 25 years (on average) must have great appeal. Pod with Tom Russo most downloaded so far.
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Not quite a Shane Parrish (
@farnamstreet
) following, but I'll take it.
500K downloads. Thanks for listening!
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1
100
The wisdom and thesis of Dan Rasmussen (
@verdadcap
) in a tweet storm of quotes from our conversation (FM EP.15)
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So I’ll end by saying that what I saw “on the ground” was way different, potentially much better, and definitely far more thought provoking than the consensus negative you read about in the papers.
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What is left is love. I deeply loved David as a human being, mentor, and guru. And I wrote this to let him know.
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It’s book launch week!
First up,
@patrick_oshag
interviews me about the podcast, the book, and investing.
Special thanks to sponsors
@coinbase
,
@NorthernTrust
,
@iconnections2
, and
@CalvertUpdates
.
8
6
95
Congrats to
@WarrenBuffett
and
@GirlsIncOmaha
. Grateful that the bet proceeds will support 18 young women in need without readily accessible alternatives.
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93
One of my all-time favs. A master class on investing with Notre Dame's Scott Malpass.
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