Tracy Alloway
@tracyalloway
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Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
New York
Joined February 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Just saw someone describe crypto as 'Mary Kay for young men' and now I'm dying.
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Turns out avocados were the real inflation hedge all along.
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I used to think that anyone who had a puppy must be in a permanent state of delirious happiness. Now that I have a puppy of my own, I realize I was right.
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Avocados have been a better store of value than Bitcoin during this rout.
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For the first time in history, the entire U.S. Treasury curve is below 1%.
by
@StephenSpratt
&
@Ruth_Liew10
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The absence of true price discovery in an increasingly financialized economy and the subsequent failure of the private sector to allocate capital in a manner that is productive and useful for societies.
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If he's capable of keeping his crypto in cold storage but cannot figure out how to open a TreasuryDirect account when 6-month t-bills are yielding 5.14%, then that's a dealbreaker ladies.
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We’re about one DM away from SBF claiming that evaporating $8-$10 billion of people’s money was really just a helpful way of lowering inflation.
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New paper finds that increased corporate power is basically responsible for all of the negative financial and economic trends of the past few decades, including stagnant wages, rising inequality, more household debt and financial instability.
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Bitcoin: the ultimate inflation hedge, cannot be manipulated, independent of traditional finance and central bankers.
Also Bitcoin: A CEO tweeted something negative about us so now we must die.
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I need 1,500 more followers to overtake someone on my list of enemies. If you believe small, petty victories that no one else but you will ever notice are a worthwhile endeavor, then please retweet so I can win a game that only I am playing.
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EXCUSEFLATION
A growing body of analysts and researchers see a pattern playing out across Corporate America, with companies using the unusual disruptions of recent years as an excuse to raise prices, and expand their profit margins.
with
@TheStalwart
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Someone should set up a Twitter account where they just screenshot other people's NFTs and then post the reactions.
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"We find that funds with facial unattractive managers outperform funds with attractive managers by over 2% per annum. We next show that good-looking managers attract significant higher fund flow..."
(H/T
@SnippetFinance
)
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Some personal news...
I'm moving back to New York to focus on Odd Lots.
@TheStalwart
and I are now going to be 100% dedicated to podcasting and blogging, with plans for further expansion this year.
I can't wait to be back in the US time zone and to focus on writing full time!
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Imagine what those phone calls were like.
Mnuchin: Hello Jamie? The market is down 2%, are you guys ok?
Dimon: Go to bed Steve.
Today I convened individual calls with the CEOs of the nation's six largest banks. See attached statement.
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The New York Fed's recession indicator is now at its highest since 2008.
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Hats off to the Jefferies analyst who keeps flying economy between Shanghai and Beijing to estimate load factors.
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Yields on U.S. Treasuries at 0.87%
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TIL the Chinese military has built full-scale replicas of Taiwan's Presidential Office Building in Inner Mongolia.
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Wrote about how the Wall Street Bets phenomenon is changing markets, and how ill-equipped the establishment is to deal with it.
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So many crypto people deleting so many tweets right now.
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It's gonna be wild if Nigel Farage losing a Coutts account leads to more UK bank CEO oustings than, say, the 2008 crisis.
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Via Goldman Sachs: Last week was the largest active hedge fund deleveraging event since February 2009, with long positions sold and shorts covered in every sector.
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SILICON VALLEY BANK
Some takeaways and thoughts regarding the SVB situation on a Friday afternoon before logging off for the weekend.
First, what happened?
1/
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Don't forget to pencil in the SNL opening as a key market event risk for next week.
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Good news for those thinking of buying oil on the cheap. This old story about my attempt to buy a barrel of crude is now free to read so you can learn exactly why that's a bad idea.
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It's amazing to me that some people are still litigating whether companies helped push up prices post-pandemic.
The companies themselves are telling you that they've been exploring elasticity and have been pushing price to expand margin.
Listen to what they're saying.
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A bank with subpar risk management and flaky depositors just changed the US financial system forever.
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Oops.
Goldman Sachs predicts that England will win its first major tournament in 55 years, based on a probability model using 6,000 matches
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In 5 hours my dad will wake up and call me to ask why gas stations aren't paying him to fill up his tank and I'm going to have to explain crack spreads, I just know it.
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A rare Resting Rees-Mogg pattern spotted in sterling. Bearish.
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I heard if you whisper 'standard deviation' three times while looking in a mirror in a dark room, Nassim Taleb will appear, give you a withering look, and tell you that your intelligence lies on the far left side of a Pearson type IV distribution.
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A rare SpongeBob SquarePants formation in Bitcoin today.
Bullish.
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We're in the midst of the longest bull run for stocks without a major drop on record. Via Goldman:
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So to summarize, it seems a titan of 'decentralized,' 'disruptive' and unregulated crypto got in trouble for essentially recreating a pre-Glass Steagall and pre-Volcker Rule banking conglomerate with customer deposits used to fund trading activities.
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Overnight we saw mass social unrest, continued culture wars, the prospect of martial law, a curfew in the world's biggest financial center, and the looting of a retail icon. So naturally, futures are up.
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Famous financial bubbles vs. the S&P 500 (and Bitcoin)
Via Goldman Sachs:
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People say a flattening yield curve may not be a good indicator of a future recession because the term premium remains very low. But alternatively and potentially more likely, term premia are mispriced.
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And here's the GameStop strategy going global.
Traders in Australia are targeting the stocks with big short positions and low equity float to force a squeeze.
by
@EyeOfJackieChan
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Over the past 24 hours China has:
- Restricted the amount of time kids can play online games to a maximum of 3 hours/week
- Vowed to crack down on private equity
- Described the crackdowns as a "profound revolution" & "a return from the capital group to the masses of the people"
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A potential supply chain snarl in the making - Europe's heatwave means that water in the Rhine is just inches away from becoming too shallow to transport commodities shipments.
by
@JWittels
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Jackson Hole is awesome because Christine Lagarde will literally walk by and compliment you on your boots.
(This just happened, I have no witnesses)
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Shout-out to my friends at Deutsche Bank for their tireless work in the non-profit sector.
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Petition to use these pics for all future markets coverage.
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Crazy thought. What if the best response to mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak isn't monetary policy or fiscal policy but (man, this is so crazy) effective healthcare policy. Insane, I know.
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Bitcoin remains fairly valued according to my avocado-based pricing model, even after rising past $11,000.
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They say you should aim for one act of kindness a day.
So here's Bitcoin on a log-scale:
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Regulators are investigating DeepFuckingValue.
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According to the avocados, Bitcoin has much further to fall.
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Don't look now but someone's been tapping the Fed's discount window.
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*BITCOIN DROPS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE
The avocados told me this would happen.
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You can replace the term "distributed ledgers" with "shared Excel sheets" in 90% of talk about blockchain and finance.
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GameStop, AMC, Tootsie Roll, BlackBerry: there's a theme here and it's elder millennial nostalgia.
Tootsie Roll jumps as much as 53% because it's a stonk $TR
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Weird that the first banks to fail all happened to be three lenders with rapid deposit growth fueled by tech and/or crypto, though 🤷♀️
But it’s important to understand that SVB’s failure didn’t arise from risky startups doing risky startup things. It arose from SVB’s over-exposure to boring old mortgage bonds, which were considered safe at the time SVB bought them.
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In the past hour I've been called a monkey, a clown, an idiot, a retard, that I look evil, that my face looks smashed in, and that I'll 'make a fine waitress one day.'
All because of an observational tweet about Bitcoin's reaction to CPI data.
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In retrospect, Morgan Stanley buying E*Trade for $13 billion was the top.
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How much can I make producing ASMR content for financial professionals?
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Hey, remember when Elon Musk filed a 13g to disclose his stake in Twitter and then everyone on Twitter was like this means nothing because 13g is for passive investments only and then Elon bought the whole platform like three weeks later?
Haha, fun times *bursts into flames*
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Absolutely stunning moves in mortgage bonds. This bond comprised of Alt-A home loans originated by Citi went from trading above par to trading at 70 cents on the dollar in *less than 3 weeks* and it's not the only one.
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The Basic portfolio (Lululemon, Ulta Beauty, Urban Outfitters, Pinterest, Etsy, Starbucks) continues to outperform the wider market.
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A Bloomberg investigation finds Tether holds some of its reserves in billions of dollars worth of Chinese commercial paper.
by
@ZekeFaux
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Crypto: The financial system’s broke! We need something better! 2008 was crazy!
Also crypto: Here are a bunch of volatile assets in a liquid wrapper pegged one to one with the dollar.
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Imagine taking all that time to hack into Twitter to run a Bitcoin scam when you could have wrought havoc in global financial markets by getting Biden to say he was dropping out, or get Warren Buffett to say he was liquidating, or Elon Musk to say he's recalling the short shorts.
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My proprietary avocado-based quant model says Bitcoin has further to fall.
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The financial system is just not set up for a temporary forbearance on payments. If someone doesn't pay for something, then someone else is owed something. (Buyers of credit protection *will* ask for money due).
This is going to be a mess.
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Remember when WallStreetBets was mostly about posting huge losses?
That was a month ago.
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In today's newsletter, I wrote about why Wall Street Bets propelling GameStop and other stocks higher is very different to people chatting up DotCom stocks during the Tech Bubble.
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So who had 'martial law' on their 2020 tail risk bingo card?
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In these troubled and uncertain times, I'm pleased to inform you that one thing remains certain:
The Bitcoin-Avocado correlation still holds.
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Wrote about how there's nothing stopping Bitcoin from becoming the AOL of crypto -- a first-mover that eventually gets superseded by newer and slicker technology.
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Some crypto company valuations are literally looking like Fantasyland right now.
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