Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
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Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Chicago, IL
Joined September 2010
Mid-year update We review the performance of the Bianco Research Total Return Index and the ETF that tracks it, the WisdomTree Bianco Fund (WTBN). Also, the fair value of bonds and why Trump's demand that the Fed cut rates can lead to higher LT yields. https://t.co/k0VMXFKN5Y
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Why the POY works as a contrarian indicator -- The late Paul Montgomery of Universal Economics popularized the idea of TIME magazine covers as contrarian indicators. In this study, he notes that the Man of the Year, now called the Person of the Year (POY), has been a particularly
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TIME Magazine's Person of the Year (PoY) is "The Architects of AI." PoY has a long history of being an excellent contrarian indicator when it has an investment theme. Q for @donnelly_brent Do we: * Sell the Mag 7 * Short the Mag 7 * Steal Money to short the Mag7 on leverage
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OPEN LETTER Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong December 10, 2025 The Federal Open Market Committee 2051 Constitution Avenue Washington, DC 20418 Dear Distinguished Members of the Federal Open Market Committee, It’s time
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Apparently, per this exclusive from the FT, the Fed Chairman race is not yet over, even though Trump strongly hinted it was over last month. The betting market is reacting. --- Trump today (from the FT) Trump addressed the Fed selection with journalists on Air Force One, after
The US president will soon launch a final round of interviews of candidates to replace Jay Powell, suggesting Hassett’s selection is not guaranteed https://t.co/YPZFNqQKOt
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Politico: Is it a litmus test that the new chair lower interest rates immediately? Trump: Yes. https://t.co/5fd487AZ13
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As many as five of the 12 voting members of the Fed’s policy committee, and 10 of all 19 members, have signaled in speeches or public interviews that they didn’t see a strong case to cut.
In focus as the Fed gathers to consider another cut this week: -whether Powell can stitch together enough consensus to minimize dissents to the same two that opposed the 25 bps cut last time -how many policymakers issue a "soft" dissent via their year-end policy rate in the
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Layoffs have been a central talking point in the economy and the Labor Market due to the Challenger Gray and Christmas layoff reports in October and November. These were ANNOUNCED layoffs that will occur in the future. Some of them could be through attrition (when employees quit
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*US OCT. JOB OPENINGS 7.670M; EST. 7.117M Big jump in open jobs, biggest "beat" over the estimate since 2023 (due to deporting undocumented workers and advertising for replacements?) This measure says the number of open jobs is increasing. Why is the Fed cutting rates?
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The US 10-year yield has been in a downtrend since May (highlighted). Now it looks more like a breakout.
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Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) are NOT smart money. They are giant pools of money managed by Gov't employees. Might as well take your investment advice from Trump. - The rolling 5-day SUM of IBIT flows (bottom) has not seen inflows since Oct 29 (Fed meeting!). SWF buyers offset.
This is pretty interesting Larry Fink says Blackrock is seeing several sovereign wealth funds starting to accumulate BTC into the drawdown
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For Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, it’s a signal that bond traders are worried that the Fed is cutting rates even as inflation remains stubbornly above its 2% target and the economy keeps defying recession fears.“ The market is really concerned about the policy,” said
The bond market isn’t buying President Donald Trump’s idea that faster rate cuts will send bond yields sliding down and, in turn, slash the rates on mortgages, credit cards and other types of loans.
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My arguments: tl;dr: Trump loses the case, but nothing really changes. The court will rule that IEEPA (economic) tariffs are illegal (~$167B). But as Trump noted above, they can apply them as a sanction (punishment). Secondly, the court will have to rule on whether the IEEPA
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My arguments: tl;dr: Trump loses the case, but nothing really changes. The court will rule that IEEPA (economic) tariffs are illegal (~$167B). But as Trump noted above, they can apply them as a sanction (punishment). Secondly, the court will have to rule on whether the IEEPA
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Betting markets think Trump will lose at the Supreme Court.
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Betting markets think Trump will lose at the Supreme Court.
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Can it really be a coincidence? Smart Investors Hold Gold. Find out more at Goldhub
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Trump posted this earlier this afternoon. He expects the Supreme Court to rule against Tariffs.
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@DonMiami3 The German 30-year yield is the highest since 2011. The Japanese 30-year yield is far and away the highest this century.
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2/2 But if you want to say both are equally important, then the Fed has a measure that combines the inflation expectations measures above with several others, called "Common Inflation Expectations" (CIE). It peaked in June 2022 when YoY CPI was 9%. This year, the CIE has nearly
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1/2 * Blue is the public's view of inflation expectations. It is very high. The Fed might describe it as "unanchored." * Orange is the outlook from bond traders. It remains "well contained" in Fed Speak. Powell includes this standard language near the beginning of every press
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