Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
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Macro investment research at Our total return index is at The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Chicago, IL
Joined September 2010
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Pinned Tweet
1/2
My Q1 Investor letter/market commentary for our Index (BTRINDX), tracked by the ETF $WTBN, is now available.
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Supposedly Twitter has lost 90% of its staff (7.5k to 750).
The fear is this app stops working soon.
Or is the real fear that it does not and it sends a powerful message to the rest of Silicon Valley, and even all of corporate America, about true staffing needs?
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Lots of really bad takes about SVB. Let’s try and correct
This is not a solvency crisis like 2008. Bad loans or poor investments were not made. Money was not lost. So, everyone is going to get their money back. (And please no takes about no interest rate hedging.…
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The world needs an inverse Cramer ETF more than it needs a spot BTC ETF.
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The Fed updated their balance sheet ... now ~two-thirds of QT has been reversed.
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This was the moment we should have gone long Zelensky
Jimmy on Ukraine’s army - Feb 22
“Their army is going to be overrun within the first two hours”
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On
@BloombergTV
now, Interactive Brokers Chm Thomas Peterffy said regulators/brokers agreed that restrictions on trading because they believed the short squeeze would keep "going and going." So they had to "stop the losses."
Stop the losses for whom, Thomas? Who was at risk?
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Not every recession is led by a 50% rise in crude.
But every 50% rise in crude has led a recession.
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1/8
Horrifying details about what is happening in China.
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Who knew we have been training people for 90 years to be a central banker?
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You did not invest with an entrepreneur.
You were paid with stolen customer money to defend the reputation of a criminal, who is now in prison.
If you're incapable of telling the difference, delete your account and just go away. You are a dangerous person.
I would rather invest in an entrepreneur who has felt the sting of failure, because they can appreciate how hard it is to start a company.
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Anyone remember the 1981 PATCO air traffic controllers strike? And how Reagan fired all of them?
The fear was planes would be crashing everywhere. It did not happen.
Instead it was a catalyst to breaking unions in the US.
Just a thought
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1/15
A thread to explain the European Energy crisis to non-European Energy experts (aka, everyone).
The bottom line ... Europe is in an intolerable position. And the public is getting angry (and it is not cold out yet!)
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* Open a metamask wallet
* Trade on a DEX (both Ethereum and BSC)
* Yield farm via a LP
* Buy a NFT
Do all this, or a version of this, and tell me why this is not v1.0 of a new financial system.
Don't know what I said? Spend the time to learn. It's eye-opening.
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Thread to explain the mkt
Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?
A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.
(1/6)
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This is who regulators (SEC) are worried is destroying the capital markets.
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1/14
In some respects, what happened in bond markets last week was epic, something we might be talking about for many years.
A thread to explain
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1/10
The BoJ has expanded its band on yield curve control to 0.50%
This matters for ALL markets
The US. 10-year yield is up another 10 bps from Monday's close (up 20 bps for the week, and it is still Monday night!)
S&P (ES) futures -0.90%, below Mon low.
A quick 🧵to explain
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Tesla's market cap started the day by gaining "a GM" (+$35B) and ended the day by losing "a BMW" (-$42B)
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This video was taken in Barrington IL (NW suburb of Chicago) about 3 hours ago.
Metra North line heading to Chicago and then further East.
Coming soon?
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For the first time ever, there are FOUR trillion-dollar companies in the US.
Their acronym is MAGA...
Microsoft
Apple
Google
Amazon
I’ll just sit back and enjoy the comments about this.
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The 30-year is up 30 bps in the last 48 hours.
(For those not deep into the bond market … this is a huge move.)
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Watch Yellen make things worse by essentially confirm this is now the new model of banking in the country.
The banking system now effectively has two tiers:
Tier 1: The “too big to fail” banks (JP Morgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, BofA)
Tier 2: All other banks
If you have…
This is truly incredible.
Here is an exchange with Senator James Lankford & Yellen.
He asks, "Will every community bank ... get the same treatment as SVB?"
Yellen: "Banks only get the treatment if ... the failure to protected uninsured depositors would create systemic risk."
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Below is the number of initial filings for unemployment insurance.
How is this statistically possible?
Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number.
Effectively the same number in the last 11 weeks, except for the holiday weeks (President's Day and Easter).
---
Consider…
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I must have missed his call to get out. When was that?
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1/3
Updating the bond market's 2022 carnage.
The total return of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, $68T in assets and >28k bonds, has lost >10% YTD.
Nothing remotely close like this has happened before.
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1/8
A 🧵on the LME situation and why it should bother anyone in mkts.
A blatant disregard for the rules, to protect one Chinese Tycoon against the market.
This is far worse than GameStop.
I tried to keep this as simple as possible. Pls correct in the replies.
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A totally ridiculous measure. It excludes 55% of the index
The joke was if you take all the stuff going up out of the index, you have no inflation.
That was supposed to be a joke, not taken literally by a Nobel Laureate.
The war on inflation is over. We won, at very little cost
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1/14
$SVB fails two days after $SI fails. Why now? What was the catalyst?
tl:dr Their deposit rates are too low, and there is an effective run on the entire “low yielding” banking system.
The fix is simple – raise deposit rates to attract capital. But this hurts profits.
🧵
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About 1% of all bitcoin transactions are believed to be part of al illicit transaction (i.e., drug deal)
About 70% to 80% of all US $100 bills are used in illicit transactions.
Who is the bigger problem? Crypto exchanges or the US Mint?
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Just got back from the dentist (regular cleaning) ...
Just heard him tell me about how he pulled a bunch of money from his Franklin/Templeton funds and he is trading Tesla options ... and making way more money then he ever has as a dentist.
Yeah, this will end well.
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1/22
As this chart shows, there is a big difference between what the market and the Fed think.
And this divergence will define the first part of 2023 trading.
A 🧵to explain
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Today the 2-year note yield declined 61 bps. This was the biggest one-day decline since Oct 1, 1982 (the first discount rate cut following the Sept 1981 all-time peak in yields).
To emphasize, today's decline in the 2-year was larger than any one day seen during the 2007 - 2009…
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1/15
What's going on with the bond market?
It is not pretty.
And if the bond market is ugly, everyone else suffers.
🧵
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The MOVE Index is the bond market equivalent of the VIX Index. It measures the implied volatility of 1-month options from the 2-year note to the 30-year bond.
Today's closed was 153.9.
The shaded area is inside 2 standard deviations. So, 153.9 above the shaded area means it is…
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The current unrest in China started last week when blood was spilled on the iPhone factory floor. Now Apple is working with the CCP to restrict airdrops to stop protests.
Serious Q, what do the "S" and "G" in ESG really mean?
--
Vanguard’s ESG U.S. Stock ETF largest holdings.
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1/6
The state of the stock market in five charts.
Friday's close, the S&P 500 (blue) correction is now 7.95% (red), the largest since the market bottom a year ago (October 12, 2022).
This correction is bigger than March, when everyone was hyperventilating about bank failures.
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1/6
The US bond market is in a very dark, bad place right now.
Outside of the worst of the pandemic, Bloomberg's measure of liquidity is at this worst level in 12+ years.
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*US 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.263%, LOWEST SINCE SEPT. 12
----
Rising or falling rates are neither bull nor bearish for risk markets like stocks or credit. It depends on why they are rising or falling.
In this case, why are rates falling? Because the economy is fine, and…
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1/7
The biggest story that no one is talking about ... the incredible pressure building in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) and currency markets.
What happens if it blows up?
🧵
@acrossthespread
@AitkenAdvisors
@RaoulGMI
@JulianMI2
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1/3
This is not a joke
ECB head Lagarde went on an Irish late-night talk show and proclaimed the inflation crisis has come from “pretty much nowhere”
Nowhere Christine??? ... Years on the job and she still appears/acts unqualified to head the ECB.
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The 2-year yield is down 85 bps in the last 3 trading days (from Wed, Mar 8 close, the day Powell finished testimony).
In the last 40 years only 1 time has the 2-year declined this much over 3 days, the 1987 stock market crash.
Also last Wed the market was pricing a 80%…
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Great Depression 2.0 is right around the corner.
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*FED REVERSE REPO FACILITY USE HITS $2 TLN MILESTONE FIRST TIME
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Powell said we are not in a recession because the labor market is too strong.
This was exactly the argument used by Arthur Burns 50 years ago.
But as the orange boxes show, all three of the 1970s recessions started with positive payroll growth.
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Tom Brady's last three weeks:
* Lost to the Panthers (the worst team in the league)
* Got divorced
* Had $650 million rugged by FTX
How is your fall going?
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1/
Here is a look at some immigration stats from the US Customs and Border Petrol.
First, the big picture.
We have seen nothing close to this in a hundred years.
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UBS doubled the priced and CS agreed.
The Swiss central banks essentially doubled their lifeline from Thursday to $100B.
---
*UBS AGREES TO BUY CREDIT SUISSE FOR MORE THAN $2B: FT
*SNB OFFERS ~$100B LIQUIDITY LINE TO UBS AS PART OF DEAL: DJ
---
So what do the markets think?…
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What's wrong with Citi?
It is poised to have its lowest close of 2023, back to the panic levels of mid-March when Silicon Valley Bank failed.
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The deficit as a % of GDP (bottom), now 5.93%, is higher than in any period except the Great Recession (2007 - 2009) and the 2020 COVID shutdown (dotted line).
The government is borrowing to spend money like the economy is trying to recover from a recession.
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Exactly 8 years ago today ...
The Fed should not do another 'stimulus.' We can't keep spending our children's future away on waste.
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How soon does the US finish draining the SPR?
*SAUDI ARABIA TO CUT OIL OUTPUT BY 500,000 BARRELS/DAY FROM MAY
*US OIL SURGES 6% IN ASIA AFTER OPEC+’S SURPRISE OUTPUT CUT
(and what do we do when it's empty and the reason for an SPR actually arises???)
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1/13
🧵on the yield curve, what its inversion means and why today was important.
An inverted curve is short rates (3mo bill) higher than long rates (10yr note). It is the market’s opinion that the Fed is too tight.
This is not normal and why its occurrence means something,
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Yesterday, UBS said no to a Credit Suisse merger.
Earlier today we got this headline.
*AT LEAST 4 BANKS HAVE CURBS ON TRADES WITH CREDIT SUISSE: RTRS
Then late Friday, when all the “interesting” news is released, we get this about face from UBS (no …
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The "retail revolters" did not get lucky. They saw this vulnerability was allowed to happen and took advantage of it.
(6/6)
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The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days (since Wed's close).
Only four other days in the last 40 years have seen larger two-day moves.
Oct 20, 1987 = the day after the largest stock market crash in history (-22%, Oct 19, 1987)
Sept 14, 2001 = two days after the 9/11…
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If we do not kick Russia off of SWIFT, then the only way we take away Putin's bank access away is if he parks his truck on Parliament Hill in Ottawa and honks his horn too much.
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Money is flowing back into bonds again.
Contrarians take note.
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Buffett is the GOAT largely because he has invested in banks for over 50 years.
No one understands them better.
So, I have noted his absence in all the happenings in the regional banks in the last two months. He is not investing, and, to me, this speaks volumes.
Munger may…
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The S&P 500 has now corrected 10% from its July 31 peak. This is the first such correction since the market bottomed on October 12, 2022.
I'm surprised I see no screaming red headlines about this. It tells me it is not viewed as a big deal.
Then ... the decline will continue…
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I repeat myself … we are about two weeks behind Italy ...
*ITALY ORDERS CLOSURE OF ALL SHOPS EXCEPT GROCERIES, PHARMACIES
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When Biden leaked that he was talking to Buffett about the regional Banks yesterday, it set up an expectation that Warren would be writing checks to them.
One hour before Asia opens, and no checks seemingly have been written. Instead, we get an "all is …
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Lots of talk again about the Fed making a policy mistake.
The policy mistake was last year calling Inflation transitory. This year is the consequence of that mistake.
So you cannot argue the Fed is about to make a policy mistake. It already happened over a year ago.
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This chart comes from the Fed H8 report. It is current through the latest data, March 8 ... two days before Silicon Valley Bank failed.
What has been the largest drawdown of deposits since the financial crisis?
The weeks BEFORE the bank failures of the last few weeks.
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For the first time since 2007, a US Treasury has a yield with a 5-handle.
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Wrap your head around this ...
The Saudis are pumping so much oil they are glutting the mkt. Oil needs to be handled and stored, which costs money. Storage is filling rapidly.
Analysts are saying it is possible we will see negative oil prices.
Aramco will pay you to take oil.
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1/11
The story of this hiking cycle continues to be the utter disbelief that the Fed will get very aggressive, and even risk a recession.
Yes, they will!
And their policy is creating carnage in the bond market and eventually losses in your portfolio.
A 🧵to explain
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1/10
*US TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES 15 BASIS POINTS ON DAY
If this holds, it will be the biggest one-day rise on 10-year yields this year.
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1/11
For a day and a half, the narrative around inflation has been desperate to tear down the January CPI report.
I believe this is wrong, and the economy is "no landing," and inflation has already bottomed (or very close to it) around 3% to 4%.
This is a problem for the bond…
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Rates rise until something breaks … is anything broken yet?
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And if you had any integrity, you would return the $15 million you were paid to the administrators of FTX.
Until you do, I see you difference between you and a low-life hustler.
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1/23
A long 🧵on the biggest economic issue not being discussed ... global shipping problems and potential return of goods inflation.
Below uses IMF Port call data on shipping traffic (via ship transponders and satellites).
@mercoglianos
@johnkonrad
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Powell gave a radio Thursday after the close.
* 75 is on the table
* Hard landing out of his control. So, yes
* Demand is “out of whack” Get ready big hikes coming
* Warned of pain coming
* Dissembled when ask if they blew it with “transitory.” So yes
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1/21
Longer🧵on bank deposits, financial market distortions, how the debt ceiling plays into this, and its coming impact on the economy.
Don't worry, like Playboy Magazine ... lots of (G-rated) pictures!
But I know you're here for the articles!
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Largest W2 in American history?
*BLACKSTONE CEO SCHWARZMAN COLLECTS $1.27 BLN IN 2022, MOST EVER
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I frankly don't understand the
@CathieDWood
/
@ARKInvest
hate?
She runs arguably the most transparent fund in history. Very clear on objectives and positioning.
Being blunt … is it a bunch of managers/competitors suffering with "performance issues?"
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Are US stocks in the middle of the biggest short-squeeze in market history?
These charts suggest they might be.
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8/8
So, yes, the concern is high that human rights abuses are coming.
But also, China is the factory of the world, where the US gets one-third of its imported goods.
What happens next will impact the entire global economy.
Hoping for the best, fearing the worst.
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One thing that may come up tomorrow in Powell's speech is the often-heard idea that the Fed has to stop hiking and may even have to cut rates soon because interest expense on the debt outstanding is soaring (see the two charts attached).
The idea that they need to change policy…
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Blue is the ETF $TQQQ, 3x leveraged QQQ
Orange is the price of Bitcoin.
The measure is the cumulative change in prices from January 1, 2018, to yesterday (6 1/4 years).
Effectively they are the same thing.
If BTC is "something different" (digital gold, hard money, a new…
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The Cleveland Fed updated their inflation nowcast this morning.
August CPI is now projected at 0.79%, pushing the YoY to 3.82%.
September CPI is now projected at 0.45%, pushing the YoY to 3.91%.
Driving this has been the rise in gasoline prices.
Yes, the Cleveland Fed has…
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South Korea closed all schools nationwide and the central bank is holding an emergency meeting today.
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1/3
BIDEN SAYS DEPLETING SPR IS ON TABLE: WSJ
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in the 1970s to prevent this from happening again (gas lines that created havoc in the US economy).
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1/3
Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, another peg is breaking. This one might matter more than UST.
The Bank of Japan cannot seem to hold the 10-year JGB at 0.25%. This despite their yield curve control policy of UNLIMITED buying at 0.25%
@acrossthespread
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Do we all realize that when the Fed was full of insider traders, stocks doubled in less than 2 years.
No that the last one resigned three weeks ago …
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Here is the total of my expertise on what is happening in Russia.
On the left is Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin
On the right is Mike Ehrmantraut of “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul”
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1/2
YTD S&P 500 PRICE return for every year back to 1926.
Blue=2022
Green=best
Red=worst
Through June 17, S&P -22.91%.
Only 1932 was worse through this point. 1962 is close.
If the year were to end here, it would be the 7th worst.
No one has seen anything like this year.
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