Game of Trades
@GameofTrades_
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The US government debt market collapse has begun
This has MASSIVE implications for the economy
A thread 🧵
281
2K
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The S&P 500 broke the downtrend line, and investors are getting excited
This has happened in every major bear market rally since 1960
A thread 🧵
343
1K
6K
Gold is now breaking out to new highs
History shows this is a MAJOR warning signal
A thread 🧵
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4K
Fed injects $300B into balance sheet in 1 week for bank bailouts
Liquidity injection has driven all SP500 bull runs since 2009
Here’s why it won’t happen this time
A thread 🧵
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4K
Warning: Bank credit is offically contracting
This has only happened during the Financial Crisis
Buckle up
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4K
This is WORSE than the 2008 Financial Crisis
Credit card defaults are rising at levels NEVER seen in 3 decades
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4K
The SP500 is following the EXACT footsteps of every major bear market since 1960
A thread 🧵
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3K
Inflation is following the EXACT footsteps of the 1970s
Economists are wrong about what’s coming next
A thread 🧵
138
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3K
BEWARE: Smart money has been selling like never before
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3K
This bear market is similar to 1969-70
We appear to be moving into Phase 3, the most brutal stage
A thread 🧵
143
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3K
Credit card defaults are rising FASTER than the 2008 Financial Crisis
The situation is worse than you think…
A thread 🧵
114
838
3K
The stock market is showing extreme signs of GREED.
It’s only the 6th time it’s happened in history
5 out of 6 signals marked significant market tops
A thread 🧵
124
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3K
Warning: Bankruptcy filings have hit levels comparable to the Financial Crisis and C19
129
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3K
Bitcoin has never seen back-to-back red years in its history
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WARNING: Bank credit has JUST begun contracting
This has ONLY happened during the Financial Crisis
Buckle up
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3K
Warning: Bankruptcy filings have spiked to levels last seen during C19 and the Financial Crisis
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3K
WARNING: M2 money supply has plummeted
And is contracting at the deepest level. Ever.
189
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3K
This is eye opening:
US population growth has fallen off a cliff
Nearing 0% levels indicating almost NO growth
Current levels have NEVER been seen in 100+ years
Even during the Great Depression, population growth bottomed out at around 0.5%
In other words, this is the WORST…
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3K
Beware: Job openings are collapsing
This preceded the last 3 recessions
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M2 money supply is contracting at the deepest level EVER seen
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3K
ATTENTION: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2013
This is now starting to look scary
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3K
This is exactly how the 2008 Financial Crisis unfolded:
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3K
The yearly change in credit card default rate is now higher than the 2008 Financial Crisis
This won't end well
82
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3K
Warning: Job openings have been plummeting
This foreshadowed the past 3 recessions
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2K
The last 2 times this happened was during the Dot Com bubble and Financial Crisis decline
S&P 500 has confirmed a bearish MACD cross on the quarterly timeframe
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2K
BEWARE: M2 money supply is contracting at the deepest levels EVER seen
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2K
Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders is now higher than:
Dot Com bubble
Financial Crisis
C-19
Buckle up.
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2K
Stock market is pricing in the Fed pivot without a recession
The probability of that happening is near zero
A thread 🧵
94
358
2K
Bear Stearns' collapse in July 2007 triggered a chain of events that ultimately caused the Great Financial Crisis
The similarities today after SVB's collapse are striking
A thread 🧵
91
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2K
Inflation in Spain has gone from 10.8% to 3.3% in just 8 months
154
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2K
WARNING: M2 money supply has collapsed
And is now contracting at the deepest level since 1960
182
551
2K
The S&P500 rally is blinding investors to the dangers of tightening lending standards
It’s a major economic warning signal
A thread 🧵
69
459
2K
CAUTION: Housing defaults have just reached the highest levels since 2013
This is not looking good
79
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2K
ALERT: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels in a decade
This is not looking good
88
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2K
Bank credit is contracting for only the 2nd time since 1974
The last time was around the Financial Crisis period
Buckle up
87
616
2K
Put/Call ratio has reached its magic number 1.5
Historically, this has been a turning point for the
#SP500
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WARNING: Consumers are officially out of excess savings
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2K
WARNING: Bank credit has officially entered contraction territory
After witnessing one of the sharpest drops on record
Since 1974, a contraction has only happened ONE time:
→ During the 2008 Financial Crisis
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2K
This is shocking
The market is up 5000% + since 1970
But ONLY 500% when adjusted for inflation
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2K
Total US Debt just crossed $33 TRILLION
China and Japan are dumping US treasuries at a record pace
This won’t end well
A thread 🧵
79
488
2K
Smart money is using this SP500 rally to go short
History shows they time the markets well
A thread 🧵
92
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2K
Smart money is doing exactly the same thing it did in 2007
A breakdown of their track record at predicting market declines
🧵 time
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2K
ALERT: Housing defaults are now at the highest levels in a decade
This won’t end well
70
574
2K
This is shocking:
US population growth has collapsed
Reaching levels near 0% indicating almost NO growth
Current levels have NEVER been seen in 100+ years
Even during the Great Depression, population growth bottomed out at around 0.5%
In other words, this is the worst…
463
636
2K
US office vacancy rate just hit record highs
A storm is coming for regional banks
A thread 🧵
70
445
2K
Inflation is following the EXACT blueprint of the 1970s
Analysts are wrong about what’s coming next
A thread 🧵
79
446
2K
Beware: M2 money supply is contracting at the deepest levels EVER seen
105
540
2K
WARNING: Canadian bankruptcy filings are beginning to skyrocket
81
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2K
Over half of US states are in a recession
And consumers have now run out of excess savings
This won’t end well
A thread 🧵
61
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2K
$BTC is about to witness its first weekly death cross. Ever.
197
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2K
WARNING: Bank credit is officially contracting
This has only happened once in the past 50 years
At this rate, something is bound to break
69
557
2K
This acceleration is worse than even the 2008 Financial Crisis
Credit card defaults are rising at a rate NEVER seen since 1991
82
576
2K
M2 money supply is contracting at the deepest level EVER seen
118
510
2K
Smart money is selling at RECORD levels - a telling sign!
92
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2K
Since 1979, this signal has accurately predicted a rise in unemployment and a fall in the stock market
History suggests worse times ahead
A thread 🧵
64
446
2K
ALERT: Housing defaults are now at the highest levels in a decade
Buckle up
66
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2K
Credit card default rate is rising faster than the 2008 Financial Crisis
Buckle up
65
546
2K
ALERT: Cash is now more attractive than stocks
This last happened before the Dot Com bubble crash
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2K
Interest rates just hit 5% for the first time in a decade
The EXACT same thing happened in 1929
A thread 🧵
75
446
2K
Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, leading to a 3-month rally in stocks
3 months ago, SVB collapsed
Here's why the current stock market rally may not last
🧵
105
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2K
The yield curve is the most inverted since the '80s
Yet the recession is still a no-show
What’s going on?
A thread 🧵
121
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2K
The current yield curve inversion is at the same level as 1928. Let that sink in.
84
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2K
Warning: The probability of a recession in 2024 has surpassed 60%
A level seen only 2 times since 1960
Both ending in severe economic downturns
While most people are optimistic about a “Soft Landing”
A recession is the most likely outcome
As signaled by the sharp contraction…
78
476
2K
Stocks have not priced in the credit crunch that will result from the banking crisis
It won't last long
A thread 🧵
87
359
2K
ALERT: Housing defaults are now at the highest levels in a decade
This won’t end well
73
463
2K
Warning: Nasdaq/Russell 2000 is back to the level seen at the peak of the Dot Com bubble
82
343
2K
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days
We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:
1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974
All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns
We expect a final rally to occur before recessionary concerns really kick in later in 2024
45
432
2K
Capitulation volume spike is here.
This is the highest
#BTC
volume we have EVER seen in any given week since 2015.
195
330
2K
This is worse than the Great Depression
US population growth has plummeted to nearly 0%
Current levels have not been seen in 100+ years
217
433
2K
WARNING: Bank credit has officially been contracting
This has only happened ONCE → Financial Crisis
46
477
2K
"Soft landing" narrative is now the consensus
This also happened in 2000 and 2006
We all know what came after...
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2K
Insiders are selling BIG time into this rally
They are taking advantage of irrational market behavior to offload their stocks.
A thread looking at their track record 🧵
60
381
2K
This is unlike anything we’ve seen
US government interest payment has crossed $1 TRILLION
100
502
2K
ALERT: Housing defaults are now at the highest levels in a decade
This won’t end well
81
474
2K
Cash has a higher yield than stocks for the first time since 2000
Historically, it’s a signal for market tops
A thread 🧵
41
367
2K
Smart money has been selling like NEVER before
The insider transaction ratio spiked to levels unseen since 2023
When this ratio hits is at 20 or above, it's bearish as insiders sell
And below 12, it's bullish as they buy
Currently, the ratio is at a staggering 150, indicating…
61
437
2K
The probability of a recession in 2024 is at levels only seen 2 times since 1960
Both ended in severe recessions
This time is NOT different
84
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2K
A major warning signal has flashed for the markets
Everytime this indicator collapses, equities fall rapidly
96
320
2K
The market is at resistance in a descending channel
All significant bear markets in the past 5 decades witnessed this
Each one led to further downside
A thread 🧵
171
325
2K
Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has now surpassed the highs of:
- Dot Com bubble
- Financial Crisis
- Pandemic
This won’t end well
72
489
2K
Cash now yields higher than stocks for the first time since 2000
Historically, it’s a signal for market tops
A thread 🧵
48
364
2K
Beware: Interest rates are now at levels seen during the peak of the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis
98
449
2K
ALERT: Housing defaults are now at the highest levels in a decade
This won’t end well
68
502
2K
Hedge funds are short at record levels.
If they gets caught on the wrong side, it’ll lead to a massive short squeeze.
103
353
2K
Home sales have dropped to 1980s levels seen during the Volcker-era
The housing market signals a 28% decline in S&P 500 earnings
A thread 🧵
93
286
2K
Consumers are heading for trouble
Only $200 billion is left in excess savings, which is keeping households afloat
2 months ago, this number was at $500 billion
At current rate, savings will be depleted by Sept 2023
81
437
2K