Clay
@ClayCampaigne
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Following
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Energy Modeler / Operations Researcher / Applied Economist, dilettante, admirer of Aristotle, Nietzsche, Whitman… Road biking, wing foiling, watersports
Oakland, CA
Joined July 2010
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Last Seen Profiles
@bryan_caplan
One of the best things about California including the Bay Area is the beautiful public parks, forests, etc. Personally it’s quite valuable to me to live near large parks, where there will always be accesible wilderness. If you don’t like nature that’s fine, but preferences differ
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@aaronjmate
So you’re quite confident that the photographic and video evidence of sexually mutilated female bodies that the NYT reviewed is faked?
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@cwhowell123
@GaryMarcus
It’s still unreliable, but chat gpt 4 is much, much better than the free version.
At this point it’s mostly useful for those who are in a position to evaluate the outputs. It’s like managing a bright, hard-working intern who is also naive and unaware of their own limitations
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@JennyChachan
Don’t those also include apartment building front-door keys? My friend’s car was stolen out of the apt building garage recently in Oakland, apparently because the postal key had been stolen
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@ProfHayward
@Allison_Dupont
I don't think you can do probability theory, decision theory, anything substantive in statistics, simulation/monte carlo methods, and so on, without an understanding of integration.
So, no high-level data science, machine learning etc.
Trig can be a bit more specialized.
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@paulnovosad
@OpenAI
When I've probed it for self awareness, it's been a lot less impressive and menacing.
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@JustinWolfers
Harvard’s definition of plagiarism is counterintuitive, but, I think the gist is, not only can you not pass off someone else’s ideas as your own, you’re also forbidden from passing off someone else’s *words* as your own (by not using quotes), even if you attribute the ideas.
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@zillowgonewild
am I off base in thinking that there are a lot of comely women in these murals?
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@AnhHLe2702
@jeeeberts
That’s because “comprised of” was an error that unfortunately slipped into common usage. Your teachers are correct.
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@DashDobrofsky
@jaketapper
What is going on with these videos? The maniacal fervor is disturbing. Not the inspiring kind of mania.
Are we going to find out this was like Joaquin Phoenix's rap career, some kind of weird stunt?
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@realdschmidt
You shared your professor’s email online twice in posts complaining about her class, once after she had been harassed? Why? Think about the kinds of employers that would want to hire a person who does that.
The University is a private, elite space set aside for inquiry. Enlisting
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@mattyglesias
@sullydish
I think the discussion of white supremacy in White Fragility, pointing to overrepresentation in positions of power as evidence of oppression, flows continuously into antisemitism. Anti-Semitic discourse is often organized around very similar lists. Jews are like super whites here
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@mealreplacer
@StefanFSchubert
The fact that rock dominates thermostat is perhaps the most troubling to me. I mean come on, functionalists
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@cwhowell123
@GaryMarcus
Like if you ask it for help rephrasing something, or finding a near-synonym that is more suitable for such and such context, you need to evaluate. Editing can be easier than writing sometimes
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@JuddLegum
A graph might be helpful.
E.g. for homicide, two things are both true:
Large declines since the early 90s, and a large increase since 2019
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Ok I’m convinced,
@dwarkesh_sp
has one of the smartest, most interesting podcasts. Took me a few episodes to fully appreciate.
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@jjohnpotter
@SambodhiPrem
@growing_daniel
Having zero as “cold as hell” and 100 as “hot as hell” with a degree being close to the minimal sensible temperature difference: 👍. Having very common temperatures be negative, 45 be essentially lethal, and requiring fractional degrees for minimal sensible differences: 👎
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@tolstoybb
I for one do *not* take the beautiful public lands in California for granted. They’re absolutely gorgeous, and all around.
Worth paying for!
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@bryancsk
All the doctors and nurses burned out and quit because there was too much demand, all the truckers retired early because of too much demand, the air traffic controllers are probably quitting because of too much demand, and now this.
Too bad they can’t raise prices/salaries
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@ModeledBehavior
There’s a better way to inject aerosols (higher altitude, less health effects), but then having that tool creates “moral hazard”.
Non-transitive preference cycle trap.
But anyway the rule reduces premature deaths by ~140k and childhood asthma cases by 7MM
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@Noahpinion
I have a friend whose two dogs (corgis?) were being dog-sat jointly with a pit bull. The sitter left them home alone together for a few hours, and when he returned the corgis had been mauled to death.
Wouldn’t happen with a golden retriever or poodle, regardless of upbringing
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@pawnzac
@Meaningness
Why is using classes as namespaces not OO? It seems like you’ve just found a contrarian way to say that simple syntactic sugar OO is common and useful, and more complex/advanced OO paradigms are more trouble than they’re worth.
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@mbateman
The farmer's almanac dot com says that growing from seed can produce edible citrus, but it's a crapshoot. I think the true claim is that all commercial citrus is grafted.
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@brianluidog
Butterfly was invented in 1934 for use in breast stroke events, where it crushed the competition. Soon after, it was banned from breast stroke events and became its own discipline. It's a challenging and technically impressive stroke.
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@RichardHanania
After the section on Starlink, he segues with "the meddling of oligarchs...in the fate of nations is not new."
Without Musk's "meddling", Russia would have achieved its war aims last year.
When ppl express outrage that Musk balked at taking the Ukr offensive to Crimea...🙄
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@HarvardBiz
Part of the reason it's hard to speak up is that the author of this article will bring a nuisance lawsuit against you if you point out that she is engaging in academic fraud
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@KLalh
@eigenrobot
It's the interaction of 2 conditions. The law prevents premiums from recovering much more than historical losses.
If the rate of loss is increasing over time (climate change), then historical losses will be less than expected losses, and the regulated premiums will not pay for
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@tracewoodgrains
The personal ethics of prominent utilitarians keeps getting more entertaining 🍿.
They really do reject virtue ethics, root and branch
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@jessesingal
I know it’s for a good reason in this case, but I find it frustrating how much of twitter feels like I walked in right after something gossip-worthy happened and everybody refers to it very obliquely so I can’t really figure out what they’re talking about
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@Twolfrecovery
@VoteandChangeSF
@MayorShengThao
“A DA’s role has no impact on crime”?? Is that a normal thing for a DA to say?
What *does* it impact?
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@jayriverlong
Log($) doesn't avoid the "paradox" -- exponentiate the rewards and u still have an infinite expected log($) with probability of ruin = 1. You would need a bounded utility function, which, in $, is reasonable.
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@bendreyfuss
How cruel that they would expect the kids to read books that are not even written about them
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@MatthewJBar
@GaryMarcus
But is current AI capable of moving goalposts as quickly and artfully as Gary Marcus
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@paulnovosad
@OpenAI
Why would an autocompleter think that it's an AI and form such plans?
Maybe this scenario , where it develops the *theory* that it's a malevolent AI, could come to pass. A sufficiently advanced simulation of selfhood might eventually become the real thing
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@crampell
Hotshot programmers sometimes use keyboards with no visible lettering, to prove that they’re just that good.
Maybe he’s flexing how intimately familiar he is with his library
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@Scientific_Bird
@tessybarton
thanks.
above any number, no matter how large, there exist two consecutive primes that differ by no more than 70 million
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@yishan
This is basically the famous "sub-90-IQ people cannot understand counterfactual conditionals" 4chan greentext claim, except you are saying it's sub-105, at least for many cases
the 4chan post on how sub 90 iq people can't compute counterfactuals is probably the most important thing written in the past 100 years
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@akheriaty
If students have AC at home (not sure if that happens in LA), then shutting down centralized meeting places could easily increase power usage
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@RnaudBertrand
@SilbersteinMatt
The Qing dynasty ceded Taiwan to Japan in 1895. The ROC represented China in the Cairo and Potsdam declarations, which handed control of Taiwan to the ROC after WW2.
The Chinese Civil War did not conclude with a treaty. So ROC never surrendered. No need to declare independence.
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@florianederer
Interesting assertion: it's "bad optics" for men to point out problems in work where the lead author is a woman.
Then, what does gender equality mean, and how would it work?
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@TabloLs
@SwannMarcus89
The aspie in my wants to say "isn't a woman a kind of person?" but that would be less picturesque
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@wesyang
What causes academic disciplines to be more male vs female. This bad paper on the subject was never retracted bc of social desirability bias.
The less PC the thesis, the more autists can have an edge by virtue of being unable/unwilling to read the room
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@realdschmidt
I don't know if there is any good disciplinary recourse, but the Chicago Principles are about the freedom to express potentially offensive views or ideas on campus.
Sharing the email address to provoke ppl to bother her, after she had complained of harassment, doesn't further
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@janeosanders
@MattZeitlin
@DiscussingFilm
“Vanity project” = “full realization of an artistic vision” here
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@sterlingcrispin
That business model…pretty shameless. “We pissed in the water. Would you like to buy a water filter?”
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@SwipeWright
@Lise_Eliot
but do you think that they are monomorphic?
Presumably there is at least partial dimorphism between male and female brains induced by the effects of testosterone in fetal development that lead to behavioral differences
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@knrd_z
@gran1te_mtn
I know this is obvious, but FAANG and the other most competitive companies often pay very high salaries, a multiple of the baseline; they're pretty profitable (or well funded) and comprise a small chunk of employers
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@robinhanson
Selection effect of the conditions under which the testimony is acquired.
Consider two signals, 1 is strangeness of what is witnessed, and 2 is something that brings you to court. Without a threshold on the 2nd signal you will get more extreme values from the 1st.
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@pawnzac
@Meaningness
Whenever I start working on a biggish project, the first thing I do when converting from a prototype script is try to determine how do bundle together related methods, config data, and mutable state so that the process can be cleanly generalized. I’m typically
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@mattyglesias
probably the East India Company, or the Dutch East India Company (VOC). Spices, textiles...they like that stuff
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@Leesplez
I'm surprised by how close those are! Somebody has a better/worse outside option, or stronger fairness norm, than I would have thought
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@Meaningness
Are you saying that people don’t use classes in python anymore? That doesn’t seem right. Maybe you mean something more sophisticated and abstract
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@abehrer
And then keep that website the same, un-updated, for the 10 years after you leave academia for industry
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@brianluidog
I hate it, but that's because I suck at it.
Eigen is correct (even if his bragging is distasteful) -- it makes you look like a badass, flying out of the water with your arms behind you in that way
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@momovolution
@wil_da_beast630
If you take the negative statistical signal as itself something that should “not be cool with” per OP, then you are judging individual cases based on a generalization without specific information. By this logic you should also be racist and sexist.
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@RichardHanania
What an interesting year for ChatGPT / GPT4 to have been released—just when they want to make everything turn on short personal essays 🍿
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@_ali_taylor
@thinkagainer
Nicotine isn’t particularly addictive, it’s the route of administration (smoking) and in particular the time until the onset of effects (nearly instantaneous) that makes it very addictive. Transdermal patch or gum…I don’t find them addictive at all.
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@katrosenfield
All The Pretty Horses if you remove the plot and just keep the descriptions of the night, evening, and morning sky
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@Noahpinion
@CHSommers
well, the conditions for the possibility of liberalism are a luxury, or anyway a contingent privilege.
Disagreement about the best way to live must be small enough to be tolerable, without recourse to coercion
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@nntaleb
Tucker probably made >$30 MM.
Were there major clawbacks? Seems like BSing *did* pay.
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@carrielarocco
@ded_ruckus
It’s fantastic; it also looks a little bit like a Family Guy representation of a Brit
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@JoyceCarolOates
They’re also of limited interest because he was an intellectual onanist making erudite connections and references for their own sake. If someone promises to explain Wallace Stevens with reference to the Kabbalah, just put the book down. Stevens is already opaque enough.
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@growingtotruth
@a_centrism
Is it weird to be proud of e.g. your sibling for their accomplishments?
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@The_Equationist
@JustinWolfers
Harvard's Academic Integrity policy specifically says that it applies to research. It was her PhD thesis
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@eigenrobot
one explanation could be that they are (more or less) true and he was feeling touchy bc he was the object of hurtful attacks
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@wil_da_beast630
Reflect on, and maybe write down exactly what it is that feels better about the next morning after zero drinks, so that you can more viscerally anticipate tomorrow’s payoff from not drinking now.
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@moultano
😆Muni. I’ve lived in the Bay Area for 13 years and have only been on Muni once. I’m tempted to believe it’s a myth
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@TetraspaceWest
it seems possible if the fixed cost of building a production line is high, and the profit margins are low.
The supply curve in the graph basically assumes 0 fixed cost and a marginal cost that is linearly increasing in quantity.
@Jezebirb
I imagine the drugs being old leads to thin margins, which leads to firms producing only a little more than meets demand to reduce wastage cost, leading to an extreme vulnerability to supple shock. Solution probably for government to subsidize or maintain a stockpile
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@AleResnik
@UCBerkeley
I think it's unfortunate to make her name go viral like this. I would have stripped that out.
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@mattyglesias
also it introduces friction for annoying people to engage with your tweets, which imposes greater costs and hopefully keeps them further away.
For a low profile account like mine, blocking seems especially helpful for warding off annoying people, since I don't get quote tweeted.
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@nikocosmonaut
Same with low conscientiousness/high ADD/high anxiety about getting your shit together. Which was my deficit in my 20s
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@DoctorNostrand
@JEdwardWoody
@Vols2024Champs
@juancapore
@realEstateTrent
I’m glad I don’t work at a company where my manager would say something is fine and then ding me for it. That sounds pretty demoralizing to not be able to have an honest conversation with one’s boss/manager.
Seems to me you should just ask the q in a way that makes clear that you
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@MarketUrbanism
Can someone explain the hostile part? I’m not fluent in bus stops. Is it because the seat/ledge is narrow, or because it has those little arm rest things? Or — I can’t tell if it has a glass back, or no back.
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