Noah Smith ππΊπΈπΊπ¦πΉπΌ
@Noahpinion
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Writes about economics, posts about rabbits. For serious opinions/analysis, read my blog: https://t.co/KfUxUlCYPz
San Francisco, CA
Joined April 2011
I'm optimistic that AIs will be good for humanity. But there's little doubt that they'll be profoundly disempowering. https://t.co/1Ni4rKvE9z
noahpinion.blog
The coming of AI means that humanity's destiny is (mostly) out of our hands.
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Hell. Yeah.
"The top-20 per cent of consumers account for around 65 per cent of sales of products like cookies and ice cream. If those 'super users' end up on GLP-1 drugs, you get a non-linear reduction in sales."
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If Tesla doesn't win the robotaxi race, I think it's cooked.
Tesla January YoY sales: US: -17% Europe: -20% China: -45% there you have it.. $tsla
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Just an astoundingly bad AP poll for Trump β’ 36% overall job approval β’ 72% disapprove of Greenland threats β’ 66% describe economy as doing poorly β’ 60% unfavorable view of ICE Cannot stress enough: the vast majority of Americans think this presidency is a failure.
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@DouthatNYT If you haven't read it, let me recommend the novel Blindsight, by Peter Watts. It deals with the idea of non-conscious intelligence, and posits that consciousness is an anomaly. https://t.co/NW358figJm
en.wikipedia.org
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@DouthatNYT I do not think AIs are conscious. But I also don't think it matters, in terms of how we interact with them. They are intelligent; this gives them capability; capability is what matters.
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Actually, I think the fear of AI, as people realize that it's smarter than they are, will cause them to try to slow it down or stop it. But it won't work; the die is already cast.
In my interview with Dario Amodei I suggested to him that just the perception of A.I. consciousness, irrespective of the reality, may incline people to give over power to machines. I think this incredibly defeatist @Noahpinion essay is a case study: https://t.co/qN9uRTnpFs
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βοΈThe Ukrainian Armed Forces defeated 2 NATO battalions in just one day during exercises, β WSJ βοΈLast ββyear, 16,000 soldiers from 12 NATO countries underwent training in Estonia. βοΈIn one scenario, a British brigade and an Estonian division attacked the Ukrainians: the
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.@Noahpinion: βProgressives often argue against measures like fare gates, labeling them βcarceralβ and βracistβ. This demonstrates a principle that I call anarchyfare β the idea that eliminating societyβs rules serves as a kind of welfare benefit for marginalized people.β
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I GUESS THE ECONOMISTS WERE RIGHT, HUH
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good.
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"For the first time in all of recorded history, humans no longer are β or soon no longer will be β the most intelligent beings on this planet, in any meaningful functional sense of the word." https://t.co/1Ni4rKv6k1
noahpinion.blog
The coming of AI means that humanity's destiny is (mostly) out of our hands.
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In 2023, Stuart Russell asked: βHow do we retain power over entities more powerful than us, forever?β The answer is simply that we donβt. https://t.co/1Ni4rKvE9z
noahpinion.blog
The coming of AI means that humanity's destiny is (mostly) out of our hands.
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βI think we are one big step into dictatorship already.β Conservative historian Robert Kagan. Robert Kagan: "Well, I think we are one big step into dictatorship already. It's not clear to me that any institution in the United States is really prepared to stand up to Donald
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Where are my libertarian biotech VCs on this? Very quiet. WSJ Op-Ed βItβs hard to recall a regulator who has done as much damage to medical innovation in as little time as Vinay Prasad. In his latest drive-by shooting, the leader of the Food and Drug Administrationβs vaccine
wsj.com
Does the White House know the harm heβs doing to public health?
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It turns out that John Connor defeats Skynet just by posting so much slop that Skynet becomes an idiot
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This would honestly be one of the most nihilistically hilarious ways for AI to go
The reason why AI is so good at code is because that's where there's the most training data out there, thanks to people posting their code online. The reason why AI is mediocre at words is because most of the training data out there consists of slop. And of course, now, the
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@Noahpinion Nobody is in great shape in this regard but itβs shocking that a country of 1.4 billion saw 7.92 million births and the U.S. (population ~340 million) saw 3.6 million. China has 4x the population but only 2.2x the births.
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