
dylan matthews 🔸
@dylanmatt
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I write for Vox 🔸 I donate 10 percent of my income to effective charities and so can you https://t.co/3L39qEBEue
Joined August 2008
This is the Gnostic Zone: where your takes are expressed so obscurely that understanding you well requires years of effort. You get plausible deniability against all critiques and a selection effect where people who study you want you to be right so they didn’t waste their time.
I have yet to read anything written by Curtis Yarvin that suggests the quality of his thoughts are worth the inscrutability of his writing.
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"Republicans are planning to add $3.8 trillion-plus to the deficit through tax cuts overwhelmingly for the rich that even conservative experts think are inefficient, while throwing at least 10 million people off their health insurance" sounds like a parody but here we are.
This is true, but CBO's estimate that the bill's provisions will cost 9.5 million people their health insurance was also only a partial estimate. CBO's total coverage loss prediction is likely to grow beyond 10 million.
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@NathanPGoodman @MattBruenig The main point is: for any $1 we can send to a kid, I don't see any compelling reason to give it as a deferred baby bond rather than immediately through CTC or a child benefit.
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@NathanPGoodman @mattbruenig has done some good pieces (including a critique of me I found convincing):
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I think we need a lot more markets/prediction tourneys on the reconciliation bill. A lot is in flux and it would help a lot to have a better sense of what's likely to survive. Here are the main questions I'd love to see, but curious for more ideas @kalshi @Polymarket @metaculus
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