Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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Built two AI companies, wrote six books, tried to warn you about a lot of things.
Joined December 2010
Nine June 2029 AI predictions — from someone who was basically 7/7 on 2024:. 1. The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S. 2. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better). 3. Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative.
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see.• 7-10 GPT-4 level models.• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5).• Price wars.• Very little moat for anyone.• No robust solution to hallucinations.• Modest lasting corporate adoption.• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways.
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RT @GaryMarcus: When we get to 2028 and AGI hasn’t yet been achieved and LLMs are causing psychiatric problems and undermining democracy an….
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Essay question: What does it tell you that LLM’s ace most benchmarks, but suck at most real world tasks?.
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I know, I know, agents suck, but next year we are going to extract the lightcone of the entire universe, bwahaha.
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more signs of data contamination & more evidence that distribution shift remains challenging:. “most models strongly overfit on a small set of verifiable constraints from.the benchmarks that test these abilities, a skill called precise instruction following,.and are not able to.
💡Beyond math/code, instruction following with verifiable constraints is suitable to be learned with RLVR. But the set of constraints and verifier functions is limited and most models overfit on IFEval. We introduce IFBench to measure model generalization to unseen constraints.
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please help me with a title:.a. Welcome to GenAI Dystopia.b. Enshittification goes mainstream.c. The downsides of Generative AI are spreading like wildfire.or d. other (specify in the comments).
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Is it me or are the shitty, negative sides to AI spreading faster than the positive ones? . Four examples of the GenAI induced-enshittification of culture just from the last few days.
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the only way to see Hinton and Marcus in a single sitting!. (bengio v marcus 2019 debate is on youtube, and still worth watching).
Making God has secured interviews with 'Godfathers of AI', @GeoffreyHinton & @Yoshua_Bengio. Read more here:
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Judge decides case based on hallucinated cases. It just gets worse and worse.
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Daddy, daddy, what was it like doing a PhD back when people wrote their own articles? . You know, before people snuck in hidden prompts (like “do not to highlight any negatives” in hidden text) in their papers, so as to fake out reviewers who used AI to write their reviews?
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Extrapolating the trends, SSI will soon be the first one-employee $32B business.* . (*measured by valuation, not revenue).
Ilya is now the CEO, CTO, and CSO of SSI. His $32B AI start-up that has no product, no revenue, and no legit website. Now that's some real market power!! 🚀🚀.
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