Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
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Flaneur: probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (real life),Phoenician wine, deadlifts & dead languages. Greco-Levantine.Canaan. #RWRI
Joined September 2011
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Friends, happy new year! I am grateful to those from whom I learned a lot, in philology, history, cardiology, theology, & bicycle maintenance.
Below is the Greek-Orthodox Fasting Calendar for 2024, (Antiochian/Levantine Romoi adaptation), courtesy D. Neuwirth.
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TRUE WEALTH
Worriless sleeping
Clear conscience
Reciprocal gratitude
Absence of envy
Muscle strength
Frequent laughs
No meals alone
No gym classes
Good digestive functions
No meeting rooms
Periodic surprises
Foamy coffee
Crusty bread
Ability to nap
Access to a hammock
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Putin the poseur on horseback is hiding in his remote bunker, while Zelenski, the former comedian, is risking his life on the frontline.
#SkinInTheGame
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Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer.
We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations.
#Moralhazard
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The argument that Ukraine "provoked" Putin by soliciting Western protection has the same reasoning defect as claiming that you "provoked" a burglar by installing a security system.
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Afghanistan: largely a wealth transfer from U.S. taxpayers to military contractors.
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The rarest (and most valuable) thing on this planet: a clear mind.
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Much of the problems of modernity is taking religion literally and science metaphorically, rather than the reverse.
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TRUE WEALTH (2nd Ed)
Worriless sleeping
Clear conscience
Reciprocal gratitude
Absence of envy
Foamy coffee
Crusty bread
Inexperienced enemies
Frequent laughs
No meals alone
No gym classes
Gravel bicycling
Good digestive functions
No Zoom meetings
Periodic surprises
Nothing to…
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ATTENTION SALARYPEOPLE
Next Friday when your guaranteed monthly paycheck is deposited, take a moment of gratitude for the entrepreneurs who took the risks so you get this risk-free income.
Shaming an risk-taker for losing money is like shaming a soldier for losing a limb.
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Women revolutions are harder to repress, and not just in Iran. Remember that they represent 50% of the population and are more educated, more sophisticated, more cohesive, yet more repressed than men.
Unprecedented scenes in Iran: woman sits on top of utility box and cuts her hair in main square in Kerman to protest death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the morality police. People clap their hands and chant “Death to the dictator.”
#مهسا_امینی
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No, I don't want to "learn fast", in any subject. I don't want shortcuts. If I don't enjoy the subject, I don't want to learn it; and if I enjoy it, I want to prolong the pleasure. I avoid what exam-takers do: I trade speed for depth.
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Sophisticated minds adopt simplified lifestyles; simplistic minds are drawn to overly sophisticated lifestyles.
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I still don't know what lead to "success". But I know what leads to insuccess: a temperament of complaint, the mentality of permanent victimhood, and the collective and individual propensity for lamentation.
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If you don't get why, between 2019 and 2022, I turned down exactly 10 requests to be on his podcast, this will provide a succinct explanation.
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I've been getting rid of my BTC. Why? A currency is never supposed to be more volatile than what you buy & sell with it.
You can't price goods in BTC
In that respect, it's a failure (at least for now). It was taken over by Covid denying sociopaths w/the sophistication of amoebas
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Let me be blunt. Those who are afraid of AI feel deep down that they are impostors & have no edge. If you have a 1) clear mind, 2) a deep, not just cosmetic, undertanding of your specialty, 3) and/or are original enough to reinvent yourself when needed, AI will be your friend.
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It is starting.
China explaining very bluntly that Britain no longer exists.
China respectfully explains there is no great power rivalry with Britain, as Britain is no longer significant
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Friends, this holiday season, try to reach out to those who have little of no friends, no family, and no reason to cheer. They may be involuntarily stuck in a state of loneliness. They don't need your money; they don't need your gifts.
Maybe just a little bit of attention.
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If you're busy at work odds are you will eventually be replaced by a robot.
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The opposite of education is not ignorance; it is education in social science.
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The main purpose of religion, I wrote in the Incerto, is not to affirm that there is a God, but to prevent humans from thinking they are Gods.
Likewise the purpose of a modern king is not to rule, but to prevent politicians & office climbers from thinking that they are kings.
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A sad day
Danny Kahneman, 1934-2024
Most people knew him as a thinker. I knew him as a person.
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Lesson: Those who panicked early don't have to panic today.
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Never, never complain about your enemies. Only losers complain. Drive them to complain about you.
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If someone, a year ago, described January 6, 2021 (and events attending it) & asked you to guess the stock market behavior, admit you would have gotten it wrong.
Just so you understand that news do not help you understand markets.
Now, work on having a good 2021.
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The more you get stuck in the past at past historical slights, the worse your progress.
Move on; getting rich is the best revenge.
In 1982 Assad (père) & warlord Frangié blew up our house in Amioun. I got rich & we built a bigger one.
My way of saying F***k you.
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Never threaten when angry
Never promise when joyful
Never plan when gloomy
Never reply when tired
Never buy when euphoric
[?]
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I've been self-employed for most of my life & without a schedule for 2 decades, yet I still find Friday and Saturday the most pleasant days, Monday the least pleasurable one, & Sunday evening a usually sombre moment.
It has to do with the mood of others. You don't live alone.
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Are you kidding me?????
Borat is nearly the most racist movie in history, overtly degrading the pple of
#Kazakhstan
. Yet many get "cancelled" for misusing a certain words out of context.
So Sacha Baron Cohen & authors get a free pass by the "left" because he attacks Giuliani?
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For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn't work.
For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn't exist.
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You must be extremely new to finance to refuse to accept that Sam Bankman-Fried is as criminal as Bernie Madoff.
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They are all libertarians until they are hit by higher interest rates.
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The real difference in politics isn't the "right" vs "left" gradation but rather "Greek" vs "Roman".
+ Greek = puts theory above practice
+ Roman= puts practice above theory
Be Roman. Now.
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People who derive an obsessive (& vicarious) pride from the "achievements" of their ethnicity, while degrading other groups, tend to be insecure, often vicious, hierarchy-sensitive losers who can't cope with their sense of personal failure.
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1- Ignore surveys.
Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line.
Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w/50 min wait.
Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences.
#SkinInTheGame
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The central problem with any such debate involving a real scientist is that
@joerogan
's audience is sooooo dumb (& so statistically unsophisticated) that they will never figure out who won the argument.
This is a non answer. I challenged you publicly because you publicly quote tweeted and agreed with that dogshit vice article. If you’re really serious about what you stand for, you now have a massive opportunity for a debate that will reach the largest audience a discussion…
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Respect.
President, his Chief of Staff, the Prime Minister, head of the Servant of the People are all in Kyiv.
We will win! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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AOC, must we then compile a blacklist with the names of the 70 million who voted against your preferences?
Must we not also compile the list of elected representatives proposing Soviet-style purges?
Is anyone archiving these Trump sycophants for when they try to downplay or deny their complicity in the future? I foresee decent probability of many deleted Tweets, writings, photos in the future
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This not a war. This is a systematic massacre of civilians with destruction of a densely populated area to make it uninhabitable; by cowards hiding behind technology. This is ethnic cleansing.
A war is human fighting human.
#skininthegame
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In America, intelligent people go to technology, curious people to science, creative people to the arts, greedy people to finance, and idiots go to work for the State Department.
"Our veto against Palestinian statehood does not reflect opposition to Palestinian statehood"
When you go full Orwellian doublespeak.
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How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades.
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MASKS
One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting.
Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an "imperfect" mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%.
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Idiots! Scientism kills pple's innate reasoning abilities & survival instinct
You don't wear a mask jus because you have evidence that transmission is airborne. You wear a mask because YOU DON'T KNOW whether transmission is airborne.
#Asymmetry
.
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I never thought that the Trump Administration would offer a Universal Basic Income, something the only Pres. runner to ever propose was
@AndrewYang
UBI gives money to people DIRECTLY, instead of bureaucrats, which is why so many pseudo-leftists resist it.
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No, for Baal's sake, SBF did not "f***k up big".
He committed fraud.
@FinancialTimes
, can you get it?
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When people call you intelligent it is almost always because they agree with you. Otherwise, they would call you arrogant.
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Happy 2019 everybody.
Hope the new year delivers to you something you highly deserve but were too humble, too thoughtful, and too realistic to dare to wish for it.
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The more abstract the offer, the more insincere the person.
People who say "call me if you need anything" or something vague are trying to get rid of you. Those who offer something concrete, such as "call me if you need tickets for Saturday's," are genuinely trying to help.
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Make your failings public; keep your virtues secret.
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How do you know that Russia is an autocracy and Ukraine a democracy?
Only a democracy would elect a professional comedian as president.
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The gym of the Presidential Palace in Kabul.
Not a single Taliban tried to deadlift. One of them pressed ~50 lbs. Tells you something about the strength of the other side.
عناصر "#طالبان" يمارسون الرياضة في قاعة جيم بالقصر الرئاسي في #كابل
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If you change your mind too frequently, it suggests that you do not think carefully and responsibly before formulating an opinion & don't know when to remain silent or neutral.
If you never change your mind on anything, it indicates that you are an intellectually dishonest.
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RIP, Charlie Munger
One of the last authentics.
WSJ, Mark Spitznagel, founder, Universa Investments:
"Munger was a guiding light that taught a generation (or two, or three) of investors, including me, how to think—what to focus on, what not to focus on, the importance of mental…
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To figure out if someone is an idiot, call him an idiot and check if he gets upset.
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The
@WHO
shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared.
Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO's claims ("evidence based"conflation of absence of evidence for evidence).
No, it's only incompetence.
Criminal incompetence.
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Student loans: the costs of the debt jubilee should be borne by universities, not taxpayers.
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Instead of complaining about the Tucker-Vladimir Vladimirovich interview, or nitpicking historical facts, try to figure out why it is approaching 200 Million views while your MSM show is lucky to get 700K (not discounting their numbers).
Losers
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4) (corr.)
You tech pple are not getting it. Anyone who pretends programmatically reading, discussing and digesting these books one/week is a total fraud.
You fall for the shallow, vapid, overactive poseur inflating his "scientific" image.
Idiots, you deserve Lex Fridman.
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ANNOUNCEMENT
I cancelled a (paid) remote lecture on (anti)fragility I was supposed to give March 3 in Russia, organized by a semi-governmental institute, to protest Putin's aggression against Ukraine.
Do the same if you can. Every bit helps. Every bit.
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If you need others to know that you are doing well, you're not doing well.
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That ChatGPT passes exams is much more a reflection on exams than information about ChatGPT.
#WittgensteinsRuler
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Two men just died, both about 100: Charlie Munger and Henry Kissinger. One of them will go to heaven, the other will (hopefully) spend some quality time in hell.
But the two centenarians had one thing in common: they did not engage in athletic activities.
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Finance has three simple rules: maintain a clear mind, figure out asymmetries, never talk to idiots.
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Elon Musk illustrates my
#FooledbyRandomness
point: solid financial success is largely the result of skills, hard work, and wisdom. But wild success (in the far tail) is more likely to be the result of reckless betting, extreme luck, & the opposite of wisdom: folly.
1/2
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I blocked every person who wrote "Borat is parody", don't be a snowflake, etc. Yes, I know it is parody. My point is the double standard with "parodies": if racist jokes (actually insults) are allowed for some races & not others, it is racism in its worst form.
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Conditions for PHASE 1 reopening:
+ Mandatory masks in public
+ Tests
+ No superspreaders: subways, urologists conferences, etc.
+ Monitoring of passengers
+ Economists & psychologists stay locked-up at in permanent quarantine.
Basically what we should have done in late January.
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Democracy: representation by a very narrow selection of people whose principal attributes & skills are that they are very, very good at being elected.
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A lot of words, am I am getting this right?
i) If a Zionist accuses a non-Zionist plagiarist of plagiarism, it is plagiarism & it is bad.
ii) If a non-Zionist accuses a Zionist plagiarist of plagiarism, then something else going on, etc. & it's not bad.
Other combinations?
Help!
It has been the case since as far as I can remember in business and in media that family was off limits, unless of course the family is directly involved in the business.
The code of the road was that you can attack the protagonist as much as you want, but not his wife and not…
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If assholes don't find you arrogant, you are doing something wrong.
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BS Busting DuJour
We cannot scientifically measure happiness and make cross-cultural comparisons. But we can measure and compare the suicide rate, which happens to be high in these "happy" places.
Never trust claims by psychologists.
The World’s Happiest Countries in 2023.
1. Finland 🇫🇮
2. Denmark 🇩🇰
3. Iceland 🇮🇸
4. Israel 🇮🇱
5. Netherlands 🇳🇱
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To see if a book is real, ask 10 people of different backgrounds & professions to summarize it. If the summaries are similar, the book will not survive as it can be shortened to a journal article.
The more the summaries diverge, the higher the dimensionality of the book.
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If you want people to like you, do not give them advice. Ask them for advice.
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Happy birthday, Warren Buffett: 93 years of clarity of mind.
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The world is split between those who don't know how to start making money and those who don't know when to stop.
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I've never seem more distateful human being than Tate; makes me disgusted with his followers & supporters.
Twitter's promotion of Tate in my feed made me feel the end of Twitter (& Musk). "Real men" show compassion e/sick children & the week, not vicious strength.
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Until the late 1990s, a "startup" was something that could eventually pay off w/future operating profits.
Since then, a startup has been a package that pays you back when you sell to other investors who, in turn, hope to sell to other investors by a mechanism known as "funding".
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Ordered masks on Amazon 2 weeks ago. The seller decided to not charge me.
Will send money to rescue efforts as it is unfair for me to benefit from my media presence, particularly that it relates to the corona hedging.
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Take note of those who are silent on Gaza.
I have many pro-Israel Jewish friends, & I have no problem w/their position/bias. But I execrate those intellectuals who are only silent on Gaza bcz they are scared.
Fucking cowards, intellectuals have duties; omission is criminal.
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So looks like
1- Bitcoin is no hedge for adversity
2- Bitcoin is no hedge for inflation
3- Bitcoin is no hedge for deflation
4- Bitcoin is no currency
5- Bitcoin is nothing
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I hear the statement "Putin is crazy, if he is provoked by a NATO intervention he will use nuclear weapons."
Well, if Putin is crazy (he is), he will use nuclear weapons anyway.
It is not NATO that would tip him, but frustration (and humiliation).
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When the oppressed becomes oppressor, as it (almost) inevitably happens, do not expect too much charity, understanding, & compassion.
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I have been growing a profound allergy to Trump, but anyone with intellectual integrity must accept that, on that account, he had a point & that he has the last laugh.
In 2018, Trump made outrageous claims about German energy at the UN, and the German delegation’s reaction was priceless. 🇩🇪 FM laughing on the video suggested later that Europe needs Nord Stream 2 because the lack of it could drive 🇷🇺 & 🇨🇳 closer together.
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Dangerous sophistry.
Debt has destroyed societies.
By his reasoning crime is an injury WE inflict to ourselves.
Debt is money SOME groups or individuals owe to OTHER groups and individuals, who may be not born yet.
The bundling of all agents as "WE" is a naive fallacy.
DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES
DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES
DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES
DEBT IS MONEY ....
It only make us poorer in aggregate if it crowds out investment — which is isn't doing
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This is an OUTRAGEOUS fabrication!
I can produce evidence I was not in Kabul yesterday!
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We the Lebanese are fed up with proxy wars. Proxy wars never end because the players don't have skin in the game.
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The cental rule in life is that it is much, much better to panic early than late.
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Iran finally managed to impose its dress code on the West.
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An apology in response to pressure isn't an apology; it's a declaration of submission.
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I concede that
@DavidSacks
is correct about the relative strength of the parties in the Ukraine war, and I was WRONG. Russia is not as weak as it seemed; it has staying power.
This means a settlement is the likely outcome.
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