Eric McArdle
@EMcArdleInvest
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Finding balance | Simplifying the complex | Co-host of "Rates on the Run" podcast | Opinions are my own | Definitely not investment advice
Richmond, VA
Joined June 2020
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The Ruble trading above invasion-day level is astonishing... $RUBUSD
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@michaeljknowles
Saw him live a few weeks ago and it was sold out. 6,600 people and a great show / good crowd vibes.
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@JasonYanowitz
By ignoring the major independent voices that have been right about this for years, they can shrug off accountability while simultaneously attempting to maintain their own status as “elite” journalism.
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“People like Kerry are in no position to lecture billions at the lower end of the economic development ladder on how they should best develop their economies, and these countries aren’t going to listen to him even if he were.”
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Chart of the week. Utilities $XLU have outperformed $SPY since inception (12/16/98). Slightly lower vol and better max drawdown, too.
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No one does common sense better than
@DoombergT
1/ In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.
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Zero day to expiry (0DTE) options are getting a lot of attention lately. This segment (timestamped) of
@ForwardGuidance
with
@profplum99
and
@JackFarley96
is worth watching to get a better understanding of what is happening in markets:
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Wow
When some researchers found that the supposed rise in U.S. maternal mortality was fake, a top OBGYN blasted them for revealing their results, because the truth could result in less money and attention for his field.
🤯🤯🤯
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@ClayTravis
@MNPDNashville
The range of emotions I felt watching this is unlike anything else I’ve ever experienced.
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@mattyglesias
@TaylorLorenz
We can't laugh about this until you're 100% sure that you don't have long COVID, Matt.
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Pretty remarkable chart from
@profplum99
's latest YIGAF post. $SPX returns and P/E ratios pre and during "passive" era:
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@Noahpinion
C’mon, man!
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I'll take it
@DoombergT
SCOOP: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told Biden the White House needs to create a “Marshall Plan” to develop more domestic gas and other energy resources, Axios has learned.
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@michaelmezz
@proetrie
Alternatively, you could have both growth and climate-friendly solutions by rapidly building out nuclear baseload power. Sacrificing growth produces instability, which forces people to do things inefficiently (ie. Burning wood, coal)
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For advisors that have developed a newfound love for private credit, I ask: "Why are you being sold this now?"
Be careful out there!
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Eye-opening chart from
@t1alpha
. "Negative gamma is a precondition for elevated vol, but not a determinant."
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“As information gets cheaper, liberal information-aggregating institutions might become less and less useful, while totalitarian information control goes from a liability to an asset because it limits wasteful tournaments.”
Liberal democracy won the 20th century decisively. So why does it seem to be on the back foot in the 21st?
Maybe it's a coincidence, or a result of specific actions. But maybe there's something deep and structural going on as well.
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Thank YOU
We are excited to announce that Simplify has crossed $5B in AUM. Thank you to our clients, partners, and teammates! .
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@michaelmalice
I know this seems intuitive but is likely the exact opposite of the truth. Shit hits the fan (globally) and the dollar goes to the moon. Happy to discuss - thanks for everything and hope the moving experience improved a bit!
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I've learned a TON from my colleague
@profplum99
over the years.
This conversation with
@benjaminwfelix
and
@CameronPassmore
on the
@RationalRemind
podcast discussing the increasing inelasticity of markets is a must-listen. I especially appreciate the hosts' fresh approach and
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Thank you to
@Hedgeye
Nation for an AWESOME weekend. Great minds, conversations, and community. Already excited for the next Live!
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@RampCapitalLLC
Would be tough to break 60 years of misinformation and habit. That said, just got done debating if these bad boys counted as a vegetable serving…yikes
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I really enjoyed talking about the evolution and adoption of alternatives with
@HariPKrishnan2
,
@Ksidiii
, and Sheng Wang at
@SimplifyAsstMgt
's third annual Entering the Fall Conference. You can view the replay here:
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Wind cut our fishing date short but any time on the water is better than none!
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Commit massive public fraud. Admit to massive public fraud. Get invited to speak on a NYT panel reserved for the world’s most “important” people with a follow up interview on a morning show. But your Venmo account is subject to IRS scrutiny. The rot is deep, friends.
TOMORROW: Collapse of a crypto empire --
@GStephanopoulos
sits down with former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to talk about what went wrong at the company in a one-on-one interview on
@GMA
.
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Didn’t get a chance to swing by the
@SimplifyETFs
table at
@Hedgeye
Live? I’ll be here until 1 PM to talk markets and show off my new trees/lighting.
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PoF goes deeper than most public conversations in our space without taking themselves too seriously. It is (quite literally) like dropping into a happy hour with two of your smartest friends. Worth a sub.
This week, the team SCUFF the pod - finally disagree, talk Booty Crew Drinking Games, The Risk of First Principle Thinking, talk
@nntaleb
on Oddlots w/ the great
@tracyalloway
x
@TheStalwart
& how we collectively love the story of the lottery winner.🎲
@jasoncbuck
x
@choffstein
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Big shoutout and thanks to
@MetreSteven
,
@JeffSnider_AIP
, and
@EmilKalinowski
, who have taught me more about money, the bond market, and the banking system than anyone else.
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Let’s do this,
@Hedgeye
Nation! Swing by for some SPY-C sauce and a chat on markets/
@SimplifyETFs
solutions.
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"Missionary Statements are explicit statements telling the reader this is how you should think about the facts and events they just heard about."
We're building a Narrative Early Warning System (NEWS) as our first major research project in a larger effort to inoculate ourselves against the weaponized narratives of Big Tech, Big Media and Big Politics.
No paywall on this one. Spread the word.
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The total quantity of US bonds has grown only marginally relative to the rest of the world h/t
@profplum99
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Had the pleasure of meeting Dan earlier this month at the
@SimplifyETFs
Entering the Fall conference and thoroughly enjoyed it - check out this conversation between
@SuperMugatu
and
@profplum99
on
@RealVision
.
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One of the most striking yet unsurprising elements of this election cycle is the total lack of substantive policy discussion around our children, household formation, and education. Unless of course it's about CRT/DEI, which is politically charging. And while I don't expect (nor
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A group of high school-aged kids showed up to one of our favorite parks to play pickup volleyball and have been at it for about two hours. No phones, lots of laughs, and a little bit of hope in humanity restored for my cynical millenial-self.
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