Hugh Hendry Eclectica
@hendry_hugh
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Founder Eclectica Macro, St Barts luxury hotelier, investor & surfer 📸 & 📺: hughhendryofficial | ✉️ Media & Sponsors team @acid .capital
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Joined March 2020
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Mark your calendars, fellow iconoclasts, for the event that laughs in the face of conventional investment wisdom—The ACID Capitalist Summer Camp 2024, running from August 18-23.
Early bird bookings by May 31, 2024 will receive a 10% discount, use discount code GKSCZVE
Find…
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Another Guerrilla Acid Capitalist Special...
Today, we hijacked the airwaves of the wonderful Bloomberg studios in New York
And commandeered / held hostage for ransom, the unflappable
@adsteel
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Good by America…
Try not default before I get back 😘🛫🛫
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Raoul, this isn't 2018, I hate to say it but this is closer to 2008 and a huge macro reset is gonna purge the system of its profanities...take care my speculative friend 😘
Remember December 2018? This is exactly what it felt like. Rising rates, oil at the highs, rising dollar, rising inflation, QT and markets breaking everywhere. Then the economy rolled over…
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Money is complicated. I can think of maybe 5 people in the world that I know get it. Saudi oil for yuan is a meaningless headline. You should scoff, you should roll your eyes, you should have contempt for the journalists who publish it without understanding its meaninglessness
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Part 1
Today feels like a moment. The central banks are being stripped of their dishonesty. Their omnipotent propaganda increasingly called into question. The Westphalian conception of money is crumbling. Trust the Brits to let the cat out of the bag. Just why do we need CBs?
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Stop the Hikes !
An Acid Capitalist Subterranean Debt Mix
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Entice the banks to load up on Treasuries with the inducement of Hold-To-Maturity and no marking to market
Then send Fed Rates to the proverbial moon
Set off a stamped by depositors to leave the inertia of bank deposits in search of much needed yield
And watch as the…
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Unscientifically and especially without endorsement
I'd own lots of
Ultra Long Treasuries __________55pc
Short the Yuan / Long the $ ___100pc
Greyscale - mostly ethereum___20pc
Commodity equities____________20pc
Gold_____________________________5pc
But what do I know??…
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You own gold
You own BTC
When you wanna give the financial system the finger
The ultimate nihilistic gesture…
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I just laid tracks with
@MacroAlf
He asked good questions, forced me to clean out the barn, put something down. I admitted that these mkts remind me of Oct87, Feb02 & Aug07. Make of that what you will. 10 y Ts were yielding 10%, 7% and 5%. Today, 3% gives risk mkts a nose bleed
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Somebody is insolvent. Volatility everywhere, big move in oil, the long end, unrelenting dollar strength, hope Stan is ok, of course he is, but the Stan wannabes ??? I just fear people are going down…imagine being long and wrong without a Fed bailout
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Today I kissed a girl and I liked it...no. Today was better. Today, I began to understand how we take down the algos and their giant platforms. How we stop selling our souls to these middlemen who pillage our minds mercilessly. It's not gonna be o/night but now I have hope
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Remember the film, The Matrix? Morpheus offered Neo the choice of two pills: blue, to forget about the Matrix and continue to prosper in a world of illusion, or red, to live in the painful world of reality. Guess which one I’m choking on?
#hedgefunds
#investor
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1. I tell you what's happening - I'm having one of those days. All set to
@RealVision
a major hedgie, the guy cancels with an hour to go! Lame to cite trading fatigue. Just how many right decisions do you expect to make in a day? And he's a $ bear and the $ is on its ass.
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Boy! that George Gammon is a card. He comes to SBH and makes me drink mescal and then asks me really complex questions the following morning on his livecast...
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Imagine you had a leveraged position in BTC that everyone knew about. Imagine they knew you were underwater and where your pain point was: where you'd need to puke. That you'd made shorting less risky for them. Imagine people were questioning the sanctuary of their stable coins?
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Acid Capitalist Telling It As It Is
Q: Thoughts on the UK, Gilts...
A: This is a spinning wheel of death
Haven't found time to collect my thoughts
But, briefly...
85% of the UK mortgage market is fixed rate
And 40% of that is gonna reset next 18 months
This is 2007 all over…
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Joy is our energy. The anti-fossil fuel agenda is financed by elites, promoted by lazy, headline grabbers and suffered by the many. It's culpable in the rise of energy bills, has emboldened Russian aggressiveness and is now seeking windfall energy taxes to complete the doom loop
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Part one: The Acid Capitalist Guerrilla Mixtape with Stan Druckenmiller
Will drop another tomorrow
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Today feels a lot like 1946...the pandemic / the War...the explosion in prices as industrial capacity was switched back on and met pent up demand. Back then CPI hit 18% and nearly 9% the year after. But not being a monetary phenomenon, bank lending was muted, prices fell 2% in 49
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Man, you've gone deep...
I feel the stench of econometrics here, but let's have a go
All I'm saying is that gdp is near impossible to measure over short stretches
History reveals that almost always the Fed make decisions on eco data that is revised lower, that makes a mockery…
@hendry_hugh
What makes you think the recession is already here?
We are adding 100s of thousands of jobs above work force growth and comprehensive GDP measures remain above potential.
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A Tweet Before A Tweet...
Its been a while, stream of consciousness time
Sunday, I sat on a boat in a hurricane sea
Circle of Sadness I can confirm
Got me thinking on my return
That accepting my nutty TLT trolls for a minute.
Sigh...
That my big epic investment call from…
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I'm fearful of these platforms and their censorship. But as the son of a trucker, heck as a wanna be free citizen of the world, serfdom sucks! But I fear we all died just a little today. Trudeau unleashed the evil genie and our worlds' can't ever be the same again.
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Back in 2009...
3 months after having made +30% for the year
Having made 50% in October 2008
My AUM had been almost emptied
I was persuaded to wear a suit
Less Acid Capitalism
To stop daring the clients to invest 🙄
It worked...
AUM touched $1.5 billion across funds
Best…
@hendry_hugh
I remember when you had the suits on. I usually listen a few times. I usually pick up extra nuggets.
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I mean the pain in Spain simply looks like a foretelling of what's likely to happen in the UK...
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🚨 🚨🚨 The Collapse of Three Arrows Capital: Part I with Kyle Davies 🚨🚨🚨
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It never rains but it pours. Good times always with
@SantiagoAuFund
at maison blanc bleu,
#stbarts
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Warning
22h yesterday no sleep and I’m tweeting from my farm bed in Pensilvania.
This is gonna be incoherent. This is me note taking. Time to sleep or time to Tweet ??
Right…
RMB settlement alleviates the acute shortage of $s in the Chinese system. Hence the media…
@hendry_hugh
glad you're bopping again today! I see all these stories about RMB trade. if emerging blocs use RMB to transact but still need to store surpluses in USD assets, what happens to money supply and exchange rates? is RMB trade an increase in money? does it help address USD shortage?
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Me (?) personally I'd be done with them, more trouble than they're worth. It is a crime of the highest order that the US imports foreign oil. Frack to the limit and join up those bloody pipelines, the US has literally an infinity of nat gas. Then wind/solar/green hydrogen, allez!
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The 4 Macro musketeers
@SantiagoAuFund
@GeorgeGammon
@JeffSnider_AIP
before and after tequila Sunday…
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Sorry, but the lazer eye profile pics are starting to look lame…I’m not saying BTC can’t do 100k, I think it can. But a lot of squalid behaviour is being exposed as the economy slows. When stable coin platforms fear transparency, eyes-wide shut seems more fitting...
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Ok, here's my thought for the day, or my apple a day
I was just watching
@elonmusk
's recent interview on CNBC. I think he's an Acid Capitalist.
He's the only guy willing to open up, everyone else has dirty secrets, he has a view...
He say's China / Taiwan is already happening.…
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Thought bubble. As the monkeys amongst us pick their S&P bottoms I'm thinking the Gods might insist on a victim before they relent and allow a profound counter trend rally. The 23% slide Aug07 to Mar08 required the deliverance of Bear Sterns; what are we willing to sacrifice?
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@SantiagoAuFund
funny how no one within these circles suggested windfall tax on Pharma co.s during the alien body invasion...
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More and more I'm thinking that we might need to reset the SPX by -20% to pre covid highs, sure there's lots of stocks already on their asses but for many (PTON, ZOOM, HOOD, COIN anything IPO'd last 18 months) there nothin within sight that would align prices with fundamentals
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Looks like UBS is the swiss central bank's private dancer.
There simply isn't a price that would have enticed me into the dark pool of CS and its many misadventures.
Ignore those that tell you CS was bought on the cheap
No such thing in the world of risk
Cheap = Lowly Rated…
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What a waste of a huge recession…
The economic storm that’s rapidly moving onshore could have come as a result of the US rejecting the exorbitant burden of serving as the world’s dumping ground for global excess savings.
The economy should be heading down because American…
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IMO dxy spikes are cock-ups and quickly reversed. Dollars are the gold bullion of the 1920s. RoW needs dollars to fund prosperity. Only US can decide how many dollars to mine from its metaphorical mine. Failure to mine enough liquidity and world crashes and burns just like 1920s.
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Emil !! My brother from another motha 😘 Actually, I lost my mamma this week but she’s in a better place. Me too…st barts. At Christmas rocks ! Can’t wait to engage more fully in the new year. Mucho ❤️❤️ to all The Acid Capitalists
Merry Christmas to you, my Caribbean brother
@hendry_hugh
—let the waves roll off your back, then catch and ride the next one.
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I'm on the pavement thinking about the government
There should be no further Fed hikes this cycle.
Global inflation is in rapid retreat.
US CPI 3 month annualised 3.2%
Global producer prices tumbling
Fed should talk till they're blue in the face
...that they will…
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Today however, "if you fear inflation then you should buy more gold". It is simple. The Fed is trying to debase the $ to help the economy. Will it help? Maybe. Will it help the stock market? Probably. Will it help gold? Definitely. This is the final leg that i envisaged in 2002.
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Tonight at midnight i think?
@RealVision
are releasing my interview with the phantom - there are 26k bond managers listed on bloomberg. I sat down with the no.1 - the guy you’ve never heard of. He’s so good that i thought i had invented him in my head. Tune in tomorrow
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First tweet in an age...my fingers are trembling but I warned you that I'd be back with hurricane season. Everyone has left st barts. I'm fasting. Haven't had a dime in 5 days sauf a scoop of vegan powder and some nootropics for my brain and to keep muscle. I'm working out big
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Cathie's got Wood
The gift that keeps giving
You have the weekend to workout COIN
I recommend you panic 😘
@AlderLaneEggs
, legend
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Partied too hard on the beach last night? No problem...i had
@GeorgeGammon
around to wake me up and talk macro
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#BTCUSD
ain't no longer half a trillion dollars...
Why do investors not pursue price trends ?
Because the majority are scared stiff
They loathe because they fear...
They fear because they don't understand...
🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️
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On such a nostalgia trip
Guinness & Oysters at The Cow…go the TiLTs !!
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At last !! Someone wakes up and smells the coffee. The severity of the margin call on uk pension funds and their errant leveraged behaviour concealed by noise around uk tax policy
Wouldn’t it be ironic that while everyone watches CS or DB, it turns out the real problem might lie in Swiss Re or Munich Re or a fellow insurer?
EU/UK pension and insurance system is truly in trouble here.
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Imagine not caring about the Fed meeting. Turning your computer off and having a conversation with a real human being, maybe a glass of tequila or two...
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I’m going to try and thread a tweet tonight if anyone’s interested...
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And you know what..? My recent epiphany, are PGMs ethereum? God Damn...silver is THE ethereum of the metals...I love noble elements - they're so happy in their disposition, they refuse to react with others - I must be stealing that from some bright spark - anyway, Silver rocks!
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The key is the dollar. It is to the Fed what the punitive gold reparations of the 1920 Paris Peace Accord were to the German Reichsbank and German stock prices. Which is to say that the Fed are going to have to issue many more trillions of dollars to stop the USD moving higher.
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“If you’re afraid of losing, then you daren’t win“
Bjorn Borg
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Hey guys, I'm with my buddy in the mountains of Utah and he's just bought calls on the TiLTs.
Let's examine DIY options to juice your returns.
Spot price $107, strike $100, so in-zee-money.
Cost $12.60 - that's $7 of in-zee-money & $5.60 of premium.
I prefer this payoff…
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Buying risk here reminds me of the words of the Tibetan master, Khenpo, musing on the majesty of impermanence, that the nature of everything is illusory. If you regard suffering as happiness then you’ll like stocks here but you may as well lick the honey from the razor’s edge.
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I spoke to the mysterious
@DoombergT
y'day. What a v generous guy. He couldn't have been nicer in giving me tips to build a business. One of the smart guys. He gets it; the universe amplifies what you put in. Careful people, a revolution is coming and I'm leading the charge...
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I'm gonna say this again
I think this market is easy
The trade is simply to avoid stocks
And own the ultra long treasuries
I'll add some nuances tomorrow
With the release of the latest
Acid Cap Podcast
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What a night, what a kid. My billions are not denominated in $$$s but something much more permanent
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Bubbles are incredibly rewarding until they're not
My advice to younger folk starting to manage money is to find a highly volatile asset in a clear and present uptrend and take an inordinately large risk size
Become a hero but risk oblivion...
The alternative is to start a…
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The Sunday Acid Capitalist Sermon
What I'm thinking right now
There's a war going on outside
Nobody see it but me...
The emerging data is truly, staggeringly bad, the ship's going down
I feel it in my bones, feel it in my soul, feel it in my spirit
No, I shouldn't put it all…
France - Retail trade -Food products
(volume) - 12 months moving average.
(Banque de France).
Lowest point in the last 30 years.
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Books...and what to read...I’ve read a few...where to start? I found that you should just read whatever you’re drawn too - doesn’t matter what the topic, your mind just needs fuel from good writing to help it process the mysteries of the universe
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Its absolutely shocking that this has only been viewed 373 times, let's change that...
This is magnificent
So many great takeaways
Too long for me to list presently
Macro enthusiasts should watch it, I'm not even half way through yet...
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I'm trembling...
China, the leader of the pack
A $60 trillion property bubble, a savings Ponzi
Brazil, re-elected Marxist, finances Football Stadiums
Russia, a wonderful but wasted country
India - hey, I'll give you that, but their FX says problems
Yeah, I'm trembling...…
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My best guess
Is that rates rates remain intolerably elevated
Then crash to the floor with a wicked rapidity
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Imagine that those in charge of Tether were foolish enough to compromise their promise to match every stablecoin with Treasury cash bills, imagine that they had been corrupted by the certainty of bull mkt payoffs. That they'd channeled some of the reserve assets into risk?
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2008 was 💯% a collateral issue
Same with the Great Recession of 2023
It’s always a collateral issue
The financial matrix was bullish and wrong in 2004/6
It extended credit on the back of diversified mortgage collateral; thought it was super safe…
Once home prices started…
@hendry_hugh
@hendry_hugh
what if treasuries are the collateral that are repriced this time, whereas '08 was all about MBS being repriced. ?
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What I found extraordinary about this article is that they dismissed the unrealised losses by saying,
BofA has $370bn in cash and is not facing any SVB-like liquidity crunch
This is nonsense, where are the grown ups that supposedly proof read ??
Q1 what is cash for a bank ?…
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Today, the market finally understood rates higher for longer. Too many Fed heads caught in the headlights of the 1970s. No one wants to be Arthur Burns. And yet context is everything. Arthur would have been a legend today. The guy had the misfortune of growing up in the wrong…
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If gold rallies 3x its same value of US equities
I question your upside
If BTC rallies 3x, it’s 4% of US equity value
Maths says you’re in the wrong asset class
😎
@goldseek
@jessebday
@hendry_hugh
I am not a professional investor, I just own gold. Quite a lot of it as a percentage of my net worth - precisely because I am not some genius professional investor/speculator. I'm an average guy so I want safety and security in my savings.
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That they have the audacity not to respond to the White House...in my world there would be consequences. But it's really quite a sight to see all these autocrats lighting- up one after the other to fail to "get" today. Xi for life?? Let the winds of vol take down their hubris...
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@saylor
In the annals of financial history, We the People, have succeeded in removing monarchs and their kleptocracies from The Money. We've removed Governments from The Money and now, with one last push, the pinnacle is in sight, a monetary system without banks. We can do it better...
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Hey, you guys want a bed time story? I've been riffing on what's gone wrong with our beloved financial system but it's long and arguably repetitive, I think you know what I'm gonna say, but I feel the need to download again. Do I have your permission?
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Talk about a bad trade - going up against the Mother Teresa of macro fin twit on
@RealVision
I'm talking about
@LynAldenContact
Maybe its the London weather, I miss St Barts already, but what a bunch of whiners over on the comments page at RV. Get real guys, this is macro!
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Bananas, man, bananas…
The world of finance has gone bananas.
I rode the banana wave to peel back the trippy dangers of monoculture in the investment cosmos back in April 2012 when writing to my Eclectica clients. The idea was to highlight how a lack of diversity in strategies…
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Microstrategy fact.Courtesy of the CFO. Our bond margin calls commence at levels < 21k. That's only 25% away on a 50% vol. Days? Hours? I mean who does that? Who reveals? That's like throwing blood into the water. If we don't trade that level I will concentrate on surfing
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I must be the only Bloomberg guest that attracts the attention of the security detail on entry to the HQ
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You guys are the best.
I've had a lot of nudges inquiring as to why I've been so quiet of late.
Presently, I just want to sleep all the time listening to meditation apps. September is real slow here.
I sleep on a yoga mat inside a huge house and don't see anyone from morning…
@hendry_hugh
@SantiagoAuFund
@GeorgeGammon
@JeffSnider_AIP
Yo HH,
Miss your strong expressive articulated power here. Hope you are well.
Sending vibes... ❤
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Another financial war crime today, this time from The League of NonGentlemen, The Bank of England...another quarter point of penury for the real folk.
"We are really sensitive to the effect on people on lower incomes..."
Liar, liar pants-on-fire...
You're more interested in…
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I'm constantly examining my premises to determine which ones are wrong.
Bob Prince, co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates believes core inflation is likely to bottom around 3.5 to 4 %, pushing the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
But with shelter dropping off, I just see…
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Here's why you should watch this week's instalment...
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Few are the brave men willing to question great men. Believe me I tried; I really tried. But in the end, this so-called irrefutable truth, that printing reserves is inevitably inflationary, seems irrefutable.
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OMG ! Did i read that 1-in-8 Americans own crypto? Someone has to counter this nonsense. Shark Tank
@kevinoleary
, Mr. Wonderful (really?) I don't know the guy but I recognise BS. When someone says "I'm not selling anything," 9.9/10 there hustling. I'm a pro & this is preposterous
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It’s the chance dangers that I’m afraid of—the senseless, unpredictable dangers of a world falling apart. The very system that made our life so safe, will now make it a continuous peril. I know that you know it, but have you considered it in every specific detail? Have you...
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I'm compiling macro charts like this one below that show a complete round trip to the level before the 2020 panic. What's your favourite ? I think a round trip in the inflation series is a near certainty...
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Sometimes it takes a storm to restock, to see clearly your precious cargo. Love my girls, GiGi and Kiva. Gonna get back in the saddle & bang out more tweets; hope you missed me y’all. Sending warm, loving vibes from SBH and we got a banger podcast in the can with
@EpsilonTheory
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A lot of you are invested in uranium. I commend you. I wish I was.
Uranium is the rockstar of commodities. It doesn't mess around - bull and bear markets are of epic proportions.
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