Yano 🟪
@JasonYanowitz
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founder @blockworks_ | host @theempirepod | @pleasrDAO
New York
Joined January 2013
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Pinned Tweet
1/ There are 4 phases of a bull market.
We just entered stage 2 🧵
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If you'e still hanging with friends, going to restaurants/bars, and acting like this isn't a big deal, get your shit together.
The following thread is taken from an Italian citizen.
As they put it:
"To the rest of the world, you have no idea what's coming."
MUST READ👇
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1/ There are 3 stages of a bear market.
We just entered stage 2 🧵
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As I think everybody knows, Italy is on quarantine because of the coronavirus outbreak.
This situation is bad, but what's worse is seeing the rest of the world behaving as if it isn't going to happen to them.
We know what you're thinking because we were in your place too.
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Let's see how things developed...
🟢 STAGE 1:
You know that coronavirus exists, and the first cases begin to appear in your country.
Well, nothing to worry about, it's just a bad flu!
I'm not 75+yo so what could possibly happen to me?
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NEWS: The President of El Salvador just confirmed that citizens won’t pay capital gains tax on Bitcoin because it’s a legal currency
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
The rest of the world apart from Italy, China and Korea is just now beginning to reach other stages, so let me tell you this:
You have no idea what's coming to get you.
I know because 2 weeks ago I was the one who had no idea and though it wasn't bad.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
That means that the elderly and trauma/stroke patients can't get treated because corona cases have priority.
There's not enough resources for everybody so they have to be distributed for best outcome.
I wish I was joking but it's literally what has happened.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
People have died because there wasn't any more space.
I have a doctor friend who called me devastated because he had to let 3 people die that day.
Nurses crying because they see people dying and can't do anything aside from offering some oxygen.
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FINAL THOUGHTS:
That's what the situation is like now today as of the March 12th.
Keep in mind that it all happened in around 2 weeks...
5 DAYS FROM STAGE 3 TO TODAY.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
There aren't enough doctors and nurses.
They're calling retired ones and those in their last 2 years of university.
There's no shifts any more, just work as much as you can.
Of course doctors and nurses are getting infected, spreading it to their families.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
There's too many cases of pneumonia, too many people who need ICU and not enough places for everyone.
At this point is like being at war: doctors have to choose who to treat based on their survival chance.
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STAGE 1 (cont'd):
I'm safe, everybody is overreacting, what's the need to go out with masks and stock toilet paper?
I'm going to live my life as usual, there's no need to freak out.
🔵 STAGE 2. The number of cases begins to be significant.
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STAGE 6 (cont'd):
If you're a known positive patient you risk from 1 to 12 years of jail for homicide.
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STAGE 2 (cont'd):
They declare "red zone" and quarantine one or two small cities where they found the first cases and a lot of people were infected (Feb 22nd).
Well that's sad and somewhat worrisome but they're taking care of it so nothing to panic about.
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🔴 STAGE 5:
Remember the 10k idiot who ran from the red zone to the rest of Italy?
Well, the entire country has to be declared under quarantine (March 9).
The goal is to delay the spreading of the virus as much as possible.
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STAGE 2 (cont'd):
There are some deaths but they're all old people so the media is just creating panic for views, how shameful.
People lead their life as usual.. I'm not going to stop going out and meeting my friends am I?
It's not going to get me. Everybody's fine here.
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🟣 STAGE 3:
The number of cases is rapidly going up.
They almost doubled in one day.
There's more deaths.
They declare red zones and quarantine the 4 regions where the majority of cases are registered (March 7).
In Italy 25% of the county is under quarantine.
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STAGE 3 (cont'd):
They still don't realize the seriousness of the situation. Everywhere you turn people advise to wash your hands and limit going out, large groups are forbidden, every 5 minutes on TV they remind you of these rules.
But it still hasn't settled in people's mind.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
I realize that these takes are really difficult, if not impossible, to take in some countries, and it's really worrying to think about what it could mean in global scale.
I wonder if this pandemic will be a turning point in our society.
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STAGE 3 (cont'd):
Schools and universities are closed in these areas but bars, work places, restaurants and so on are still open.
The decree gets released by some newspaper before it should...
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🟤 STAGE 4:
The number of cases is heavily increasing.
Schools and universities are closed everywhere for at least a month.
It's a national health emergency.
Hospitals are at capacity, entire units are cleared to make space for coronavirus patients.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
It's hard to see all these countries act like it's not coming and not taking the precautions that are necessary for the well-being of its citizens while they still can.
Please if you're reading this try to act in your best interest.
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STAGE 3 (cont'd):
...so around 10k people from the red zone escape from the area that same night to return to their homes in the rest of Italy (this will be important later).
Most of the population of the remaining 75% of Italy still does what it always does.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
This problem isn't going to solve itself by ignoring it.
Just wondering how many undiscovered cases there might be in America alone is scary, and they're in for a big, big trouble because of how their country is run.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
A friend's relative died yesterday of corona because they couldn't treat him.
It's chaos, the system is collapsing.
Coronavirus and the crisis it's provoking is all you hear about everywhere.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
But it is.
And not because the virus alone is particularly dangerous or deadly, but for all the consequences it brings.
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STAGE 6 (cont'd):
The certification is an official document where you declare your name, where you're coming from, where you're going and what for.
There are a lot of police check points.
If you're found outside without a valid reason you risk a fine up to €206.
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STAGE 5 (cont'd):
People can go to work, do grocery shopping, go to the pharmacy, and all businesses are still open because otherwise the economy would collapse (it already is), but you can't move from your commune unless you have a valid reason.
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I overheard a construction worker say he’s made $120,000 this year from Dogecoin.
Whether or not you like crypto and Bitcoin, that’s up to you.
But personally, I can’t help but feel very happy for the everyday people who have made a life changing amount of money this year.
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If this is really the end for Genesis, this could be more impactful than FTX.
FTX hurt liquid funds and consumers. Genesis impacts nearly every company in crypto.
Let's dig in.
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⚫️ STAGE 6:
2 days later, it's announced that all (most) businesses are closed: Bars, restaurants, shopping centers, all kinds of shops etc.
Everything except supermarkets and pharmacies.
You can move around only if you have certification with you.
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STAGE 5 (cont'd):
Now there's fear, you see a lot of people with masks and gloves around but there are still are people who think that they're invincible, who go to restaurants in large groups, hang out with friends to drink and so on.
Next step.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
Our government for once did a good job I must say.
The actions taken were drastic but necessary, and this may be the only way to limit the spreading.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
They're taking measures to protect us citizens such as probably suspending mortgage payments for next months, help for shop owners who were obligated to close and so on.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
It's working in China so we hope it will work here too (it's already working in some of the first red zones which were quarantined before everybody else).
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
If there are cases where you live, then the virus is spreading, and you're maybe 1-2 weeks behind us.
But you'll get to our point eventually.
PLEASE take any precaution you can take.
Don't act like it's not going to get you.
If you can, STAY HOME.
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Coinbase didn't launch an NFT platform... they launched Web3 Instagram
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FTX had audited GAAP financials.
Some Big 4 accounting firm is about to be in a mess of shit.
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So
@joerogan
is thinking about bringing
@APompliano
on his podcast to talk Bitcoin.
Retweet if you think this should happen.
Let’s get his attention.
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In 1999, Forbes claimed that the internet “burns up an awful lot of fossil fuels” and sets the world on a dangerous trajectory of energy usage.
Imagine if entrepreneurs, investors, and developers had listened to Forbes and stopped building the internet.
Source:
@veradittakit
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Italy’s COVID-19 Update:
• 24,700 total cases
• 9,700 hospitalized
• 3,600 new cases TODAY
• 1,800 deaths
• 1,700 in ICU
7.2% death rate
This has spiraled out of control.
Thoughts & prayers are with everyone in Italy 🇮🇹
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1/ Buckle up, we’ve entered the toughest phase of the bear market.
Welcome to Stage 3 🧵
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FTX has turned on withdrawals but only for users in the Bahamas who are already KYC'd...
I'm sorry but that basically only applies to FTX employees and friends of the firm.
What a joke.
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11/ Don't lose sight of the big picture.
We're building an open, permissionless world.
It will take decades, not years.
Close the computer, zoom out, go for a walk.
Just don't give up.
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It's happening.
✅ El Salvador
✅ Paraguay
✅ Brazil
Latin American leaders are waking up to Bitcoin.
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Rumor has it
@TomBrady
is loading up on Bitcoin.
Retweet if you think the GOAT should turn on laser eyes.
Let’s make it happen.
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The Chinese mining ban is great for Bitcoin in the long run.
1) Decentralizes hashrate
2) Chinese mining FUD is no longer a risk
3) China loses control on the most important economic asset of our lifetime
4) Mining will move to areas more focused on renewable energy 🌋
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We interrupt your Bitcoin feed to bring you a special announcement.
Ya boy locked it down!
🔥💍
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6 crypto Super Bowl ads tomorrow.
1) FTX
2) Crypto com
3) Coinbase
4) eToro
5) Bitbuy
6) Bud Light ft. Nouns NFT
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Another bizarre article by the NYT.
They dedicated an entire page to this random YouTuber whose videos barely get 100 views.
Apparently "Mr. Hek is one of the few voices flagging crypto ponzi schemes."
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THIS ALL HAPPENED TODAY
1) Bitcoin hit $20,000
2) Guggenheim's CIO gave a $400,000 target
3) Northern Trust launched a crypto custodian
4) Alan Howard and Eric Peters commit $1B to crypto
5) American Express backed crypto broker FalconX
My head is exploding this is too bullish.
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Fidelity just recommended that investors allocate 5% to Bitcoin.
Fidelity has $3.3 trillion AUM.
Investing 5% into Bitcoin would be an additional $165 billion of capital flooding into Bitcoin.
You have to be crazy to not own Bitcoin at this point.
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Ray Dalio’s CFO just left to become the CFO of NYDIG.
Institutions who don’t like Bitcoin will struggle to retain top talent.
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George Soros has just approved Bitcoin trading for Soros Fund Management
🚀🚀🚀
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10/ Stage 3 is the toughest to survive.
If you're a company, do whatever it takes to get through.
If you're a builder, stay interested. Find other builders. Buidl with them.
If you're an investor, develop your own theses. Take bets on people you believe in.
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My god.
@garrytan
on CNBC just now:
Over 1,000 YC companies have been impacted. This is an extinction level event for startups. These depositors will not survive without a government plan.
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Oct - Nov: BTC run
Dec - Jan: Rotation into ETH
Feb - Mar: Alt mania
April: Fin
Buckle up.
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12/ This piece by
@fredwilson
still rings true:
a) Many talented people left. But those who stayed were rewarded.
b) We will have to hunker down and build value and survive for quite a while to get there. Things will get worse before they get better.
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9/ During Stage 3, you'll want to walk away.
Regulators will kick us while we're down.
Your favorite Twitter degens will go quiet.
Web2 investors will quietly stop allocating.
Talented builders will leave.
Companies will shut down.
You'll question every assumption you had.
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This entire thread has been translated into Spanish by
@JonathanErlichL
If anyone else has translated this, please DM me.
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The moderator of the Wall Street Bets subreddit just sent a savage letter to CNBC
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8/ Stage 3: Bottomless Exhaustion
After max pain comes max exhaustion.
There are no bounces. There are no narratives. Prices consolidate sideways or slowly move down. It's boring.
At the bottoms, anger is replaced by silence.
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1/ In bear markets, it's crucial to remember why you're building.
I'd recommend reading the classics this week.
Here's a running list of my all-time favorites 🧵
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The largest DeFi hack in history just took place on the Poly Network.
Ethereum – $273M
Binance Smart Chain – $253M
Polygon – $85M
We'll keep you updated as we learn more.
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99% of people should not trade Bitcoin.
Buy. Hold. That’s it.
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4/ Stage 2: Forced Capitulation
This is where it gets ugly.
Narratives die. Prices fall 90%... then another 90%. Layoffs across the board.
Mainstream media and cynics rise up in Stage 2. They laugh and shout "I told you!"
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Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history.
It’s a colossal pump-and-dump scheme, the likes of which the world has never seen.
– Bill Harris, founding CEO of PayPal
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If you think an unconfirmed report about Amazon accepting bitcoin payments caused this pump, you haven’t been paying attention
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Once you understand Bitcoin, it's impossible to not root for its success
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Lot of FUD about USDC right now.
Keep in mind:
• BNY Mellon is their custodian
• BlackRock manages reserves
• Visa settles transactions in USDC
• 100% backed by cash and treasuries
• Audited by Deloitte, annual audits filed w SEC
I think the FUD is overblown.
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5/ Luna sent us into Stage 2.
In Stage 2, diamond hands become forced sellers. They sell not because they want to, but because they have to.
Celsius doesn't want to sell – they might have to sell.
There will be more funds, companies, and individuals like Celsius.
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1/ Getting a crypto job 🧵
Yesterday I offered to help people find a job in crypto.
I’ve received 600+ DM’s asking for advice.
I figured I’d share some thoughts publicly for people trying to enter this industry.
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7/ The lower prices go, the louder the bears get.
The louder the bears, the lower the price go.
This creates a vicious cycle. In Stage 2, prices crash violently.
Excitement is replaced by anger.
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Joe Biden’s tech advisor just disclosed a holding of $1-5 million in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is his largest investment.
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I really like the new Coinbase ad.
Big reason many people are in crypto is because the current system is broken in so many ways and yeah, why wouldn’t you try to fix it.
Better to build than to complain.
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Grayscale is running Bitcoin ads this week on CNBC, MSNBC, Fox, and Fox Business.
Get ready for a massive week for Bitcoin.
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JPMorgan just executed their first live DeFi trade.
They traded tokenized SGD for JPY using a modified version of Aave on Polygon.
The future of france is upon us.
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2/ Stage 1: The Unwind
The excitement (and greed) from the bull market still exists.
Mini-narratives pop up for weeks at a time. Assets still have floors. Valuations are cut but companies don't make the tough decisions (kill products, layoffs).
Things seem alright.
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6/ In Stage 2, any bounce will be immediately sold into.
The dead cat bounce.
Companies that needs high token prices will be crushed. Founders that buy their own tokens to sustain their projects… they'll also get crushed.
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The SEC is pushing the best founders offshore.
Hayden built Uniswap from Brooklyn. The US government is now telling future Haydens to go build in Dubai or Singapore.
This has to change soon or we'll crush innovation for years.
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3/ Stage 1 doesn't *feel* like a bear market.
It feels like prices have pulled back to "realistic" valuations.
Investors continue allocating, builders keep building...
In general, life is good. Only the weak hands sell.
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We're standing on the shoulders of giants today.
Erik Voorhees, Charlie Shrem, Gavin Andresen, Jesse Powell, Andreas Antonopoulos, Jerry Brito, Brian Armstrong, Wences Casares, Adam Back, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Bill Barhydt, Stephen Pair, Tuur Demeester, Mike Belshe, Hal…
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Huge day for Bitcoin.
1) Visa launching software that helps banks offer Bitcoin
2) PayPal's first earnings report with Bitcoin sales included
3) Michael Saylor pitching Bitcoin to 1,000+ corporates & investors
@Blockworks_
will be covering all three events throughout the day.
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CashApp now has more mobile users than Bank of America.
Bitcoin is taking down the legacy banks one user at a time.
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You think PayPal is big news?
Just wait until Facebook and Google enable their billions of users to buy Bitcoin through their digital wallets.
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We haven’t had a Central Bank buy Bitcoin yet.
Still early.
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@elonmusk
Elon. We’ve compiled a mix of both pro-Bitcoin and anti-Bitcoin pieces.
I’ll send you 1 full Bitcoin if you read all 10 articles and still believe Bitcoin is bad for the environment.
I’d urge you to specifically read the pieces by
@nic__carter
.
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