Patrick Flood, CFA
@LatamStocks
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Investment Analyst - 10+ years covering Latin America. Newsletter 👉 Podcast 👉
Joined April 2020
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Latin America is one of the most under followed and under invested regions in the world.
But there are opportunities for investors will to look.
LATAM Stocks has covered companies in:
🇧🇷Brazil
🇲🇽Mexico
🇨🇱Chile
And More!
Join our community of investors interested in LATAM!
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I am seeing a lot of FUD about
@MicroStrategy
debt
People are concerned that
@saylor
keeps buying
#Bitcoin
instead of dealing w/ their "Debt problem"
I suspect these people haven't read the $MSTR financials...
I did.
And I don't think they have a debt problem, at all.
🧵👇
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A big scandal in the Brazilian markets is making news today.
Lojas Americanas,
#AMER3
announced that they found R$20 BILLION in debt that "went missing" from their balance sheet.
Their market cap. is R$ 10.7 billion.
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@aviancaescucha
@TheJerzWay
"less leg room and more crowded flights" might be the worst marketing line in the history of air travel.
😂😂
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@levelsio
Brazil is the capital of Lusophone culture globally.
This irks the Portuguese to no end.
Especially when their kids are speaking with a Paulista accent and using Brazilian slang they picked up on the internet.
It's a hilarious dynamic.
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Brazil wants to increase taxes on gaming companies.
It would take about a week for a Brazilian gaming company to relocate to El Salvador.
Amazing how clueless the Brazilian government is when it comes to tech.
++ Governo estuda criar imposto extra para empresas de games em regulação do setor
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@VCBrags
Poor guy just figured out that Google has 174,000 employees.
There is a small city worth of people with the same experience.
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@AJA_Cortes
"But Argentina has free healthcare and college for everyone. We should do the same thing in America"
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Lula has revoked visa on arrivals for tourists from The U.S., Japan, Canada, and Australia
These tourists will now need to apply for a visa at a consulate and pay a significant fee
This is going to crush the Brazilian tourism industry
One of the dumbest policy decisions ever
++ Lula revoga dispensa de vistos de visitantes da Austrália, Canadá, EUA e Japão
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@stats_feed
There are 2.5 million Venezuelan Refugees in Colombia.
There are 1.5 million Venezuelan Refugees in Peru.
You forgot both on your list.
Amazing how one of the largest refugee crises in the world is always forgotten.
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@BowTiedOx
My bet is on a divorce next.
Then a jiu jitsu girlfriend with some curves.
Impossible to chad this hard and be with a skinny lefty.
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What are the implications if the 2025 note converts?
1st
MicroStrategy's next debt repayment will be Feb. 15th 2027
Over 3 years from now....
2nd
It means the next $750 million Saylor plans to raise is going directly into
#Bitcoin
Probably before the halving in ~April 2024
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Where does $MSTR stock need to trade for the conversion to happen?
Conversion Price: $397.99
130% premium: $517.39
Current Price: $498.30
30 day moving average: $461.25
$517.39 is the price to watch!
It looks increasingly likely that 2025 debt is going to take care of itself
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@JakeNomada
Great for the gringos that actually set up businesses or bought cash flowing assets in Mexico though.
They can send some of that money back to the U.S. at a much better rate.
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5% of the Brazilian population speaks English 🇧🇷
95% of Brazilians put "native or bilingual" on their LinkedIn profile 🙃
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@BowTiedMara
I couldn't resist Helados Italia the last time I was in Buenos Aires.
It's really good.
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The history of Venezuela.
All this in a millennials lifetime.
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I think the best analog for the current state of the
#Bitcoin
market and $GBTC selling is the PlusToken Saga from 2018/19.
PlusToken was a Asian Ponzi scheme that accumulated a large stack of several hundred thousand Bitcoin, among other assets.
🧵👇
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1st, MicroStrategy doesn't have to repay anything until December 15th, 2025.
2 Years is a long time on wall street.
The company has plenty of time to roll the debt or issue shares to repay.
But I doubt they will even need to repay their 2025 note...
How is that possible?
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@VCBrags
This is what a perfect LinkedIn post looks like....
Virtue signaling about current cultural thing
+
Buzzword salad about the current business thing
=
Viral on LinkedIn
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A lot of Americans haven't caught on to the fact that work from home means they now compete for jobs globally.
A developer in Colombia is happy to do same job for 20% of U.S. salary.
Many of the recently laid of tech workers are past peak earnings, they just dont know it yet.
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Because after conversion they can immediately sell the stock, trading at a 30% premium to conversion price
30% is a lot more than the .75% annual interest rate on the debt
Obviously everyone converts
Yes its dilutive & puts sell pressure on the stock, but "debt problem" solved
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Brazil is the only true cultural melting pot in Latin America
Huge communities of Japanese, Lebanese, and Syrian immigrants. Plus the African and Portuguese heritage
Also a lot of immigrants from other Latam countries
Makes
#Brazil
by far the most fascinating country in Latam
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The 2025 and 2027 convertible notes are convertible under the following conditions.
So if
#MSTR
stock trades at or above 130% of the 2025 conversion price for 20 out of 30 trading days, debt holders can immediately convert.
They would obviously do this.
Why...?
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Brazil is an Agriculture powerhouse!
But Brazilian Agribusiness stocks are under followed
@gabeboente
talks about one of Brazil's richest families acquiring 5% of Agro giant
#SLCE3
Why?
Public equities are among the cheapest ways to acquire farmland in Brazil right now 👇👇
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There are several multinational banks with subsidiaries listed in El Salvador. The 2 that caught my eye were:
Scotiabank - Canada
Davivienda - Colombia
This raises a lot of interesting questions about how these international banks will handle their ES subsidiaries.
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@saifedean
"Don't these peasants know the numbers I invented show that their groceries are affordable now"
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@1chrismcg
"After 30 years old, there is only a 50% chance a women will have a child, of the 50% that don't have a child, 90% wanted one"
-From the documentary Birth Gap.
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Brazil brought back tourist visas this month, making it more expensive for travellers to visit.
Meanwhile, Costa Rica is extending visa periods, making it easier for tourists.
Some LATAM countries get it, and some don't
Brazil's tourism industry will continue to underperform.
The Costa Rican government has announced an extension of the maximum stay period for foreign tourists visiting on a tourist visas, from 90 days to 180 days.
#costaricatravel
#costaricatraveler
#CostaRicaExpats
#costaricacool
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@dailydirtnap
@TheEconomist
They have their political ideology, which they push shamelessly.
Milei plays for the other team.
I haven't clicked an economist article in years
It's always been a political rag.
They just invent "economic" reasons for their politics
I would expect nothing less from them...
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Frederico is one of the best Petrobras analysts on Twitter/X.
He just closed out his Petrobras position in all his client accounts.
$PBR bulls should read this thread 👇👇
#PETR4
#PBR
Depois de 2 anos, encerramos hoje a nossa posição em Petrobras nas carteiras administradas da
@warrenbrasil
Quem ficou nessa onda de "ah, mas é estatal" perdeu uma baita oportunidade
Mas vamos olhar pra frente...o que nos fez zerar a posição em Petro? 🧶
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If you are thinking about investing in Portugal...
Fly on TAP airlines.
Then you won't want to invest in Portugal anymore.
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@TuurDemeester
@profstonge
Bashing Airbnb has been great for engagement.
People seem to love this narrative.
Only problem is, it's not true.
Bookings have not dropped.
Airbnb Q2 2023:
11% increase in nights booked, YoY
13% increase in gross booking value, YoY
$ABNB
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The Petrobras of today is not the same company as the Petrobras of 10 years ago.
@NobreFrederico
is the head of research at Brazilian brokerage Warren.
He also used to cover Petrobras for Reuters.
In this video he explains some of the changes at Petrobras. $PBR
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Brazil's 6 largest Banks:
1 Itaú
2 Bradesco
3 Banco do Brasil
4 Santander
5 BTG
6 NuBank - Largest Neobank
ALL 6 REQUIRE RESIDENCY TO OPEN A BANK ACCOUNT (RNE DOC.)
But please, tell me more about how Brazil is going to be "LATAM Switzerland" because of its open banking system
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Colombia's equity market is one of the most undervalued in the world! 🇨🇴
Will it stay cheap in 2024 or will valuations start to rise?
@irbezek
gives his opinion…👇👇
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The highest capital city in the world is in Bolivia 🇧🇴
La Paz is 3,650 meters (11,975 feet) above sea level.
I have heard stories of tourists needing to receive an oxygen mask immediately after getting off the plane due to the altitude.
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Great thread about Bradesco, one of Brazil's largest Banks.
Their stock is listed in the U.S. $BBD
Well worth clicking the translate button 👇👇
Na última quarta-feira, o Bradesco (BBDC) divulgou seu resultado do 4T23
O resultado ruim, cerca de 40% abaixo das expectativas, abalou o mercado e fez as ações caírem 16%
A pergunta que não quer calar é: a queda deveria ser tão grande assim? 🧵
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Latin America has some of the most favorable demographics in the world.
Western investors love to focus on China.
But LATAM and India clearly present better long term investment prospects from a demographics perspective.
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@dustinwatchman
@MicroStrategy
@saylor
Many people have a hard time accepting this chart....
$MSTR is outperforming everything since it adopted a
#Bitcoin
strategy
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Brazilians making less than 60k USD per year will fly their family of 4 business class to Disney.
Total cost of the trip; 3-4 months income.
Then they will complain about taxes and how bad Brazil is for business.
I have met dozens of these people.
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I tried to watch a video on Rumble today.
Got this message.
$RUM
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Do these banks now have $BTC exposure by default?
Can they choose to adopt BTC as a reserve asset for their whole intl. operation via ES subsidiary?
I'd be interested to hear from anyone who knows more about this than I do.
@CaitlinLong_
@nic__carter
@PrestonPysh
@MarkYusko
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I had a Brazilian energy expert tell me:
''You can throw a dart at a map of Brazil and that location will be better for solar energy than anywhere in Germany"
🇧🇷🌞 Brazil is leading the charge in renewable energy, accounting for 58% of all Chinese solar panel exports to Latin America.
🧵 Here's more ↓
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German companies have a huge presence in Brazil.
I hear all the time "Brazil is just commodities it doesn't have industry"
It's not true.
São Paulo is the world’s largest German industrial location outside Germany.
There is plenty of manufacturing in Brazil.
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@DocumentingBTC
#Brazil
has a
#Bitcoin
ETF before The United States.
Latin America is leading and The US is falling behind.....
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If you are at an airport
And you see a huge line of people waiting to board the plane
A full 90 minutes before the flight...
That plane is going to Brazil
Guaranteed
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Here is a very incomplete list of great accounts that post content in Portuguese about Brazil's Economy and Public Market Investments 🇧🇷
Tag any accounts that are missing in the comments!
👇👇
@TonyVolpon
@PedroLulaMota
@ivanbarboza_
@guilhermevcz
@pauloghedini
@bernardoviero
…
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Latin America Price to Earnings Ratios.
LATAM looks cheap!
As of June 30, 2023
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Petrobras bears are not going to like this chart. $PBR
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Watch the full LATAM Stocks Podcast episode with
@irbezek
In this episode we discuss the 2024 investment landscape in LATAM.
We talk about:
Colombia 🇨🇴
Chile 🇨🇱
Venezuela 🇻🇪
Mexico 🇲🇽
And more!
Drop a comment and let us know what you're expecting in LATAM in 2024!
👇👇
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I don't think American workers realize how much competition they have in a fully remote work environment.
A lot of qualified people are willing to work for a lot less than US minimum wage.
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PIX is the most common payment method in Brazil 🇧🇷
The PIX program was launched in 2022 and in 2023 it is by far the leading payment method in Brazil.
Crazy growth!
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@BowTiedMara
@WallStreetSilv
Imagine having someone that needs a seat belt extension above you while you bounce around in turbulence.
Terrifying.
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Brazil, Colombia, and Chile equity markets all look cheap.
Globally, Regionally, and Historically.
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High inflation distorts human behavior and economic incentives exhibit
#5938284
Argentine 🇦🇷 drivers go to Paraguay 🇵🇾 to change tires 🛞 and then burn the "hairs" of the new tires so that Argentine Customs can’t make them pay surcharges or try to confiscate them, passing them off as used.
In Argentina tires are 2-2.5x more expensive.
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@maxkeiser
@washingtonpost
@nayibbukele
This from the same Washington Post that shilled for Pinochet?
Not a trustworthy org. for anything related to Latin America
Bukele getting hate from same organization that supported a murdering dictator in LATAM probably means he's doing something right
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Well guys, I don't know how this happened.
But with the Twitter rebrand, I looks like....
@BowTiedMara
@TheJerzWay
@calvinfroedge
@BowTiedColombia
@BowTiedGlobe
@JakeNomada
@Geologo_Trader
@MyLatinLife
@BowTiedMexico
@planbparaguay
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Sao Paulo is the best city in Latin America for sushi and there isn't a close second. 🍣🍣
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Amazes me that people still pay Forbes to be on their 30 under 30 lists.
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One of the strangest things about Brazilian LinkedIn...
Companies of all sizes insist on doing professional photo shoots.
Half my feed is middle managers pretending to be models.
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Brazilian software developers are among the lowest paid in the world.
Meanwhile Brazil is making it harder for tech companies to do business. Banning apps, taxing gaming companies, etc..
Not hard to understand why many of these devs are leaving, moving to The US and Portugal.
Salário anual de desenvolvedores de software ao redor do mundo.
Por que um bom desenvolvedor brasileiro vai querer ficar no Brasil? Zero incentivo. Na Índia então nem se fala.
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Brazil is a stock pickers dream right now.
Overall Brazilian equities are now at their most undervalued levels since the impeachment of the president in 2016.
Additionally, these stocks are being traded at similarly low multiples as they were during the global financial crisis.
Unlike US markets that remain historically…
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4 of the 10 largest cattle herds in the world are in Latin America!
2. Brazil 🇧🇷
6. Argentina 🇦🇷
8. Mexico 🇲🇽
10. Uruguay 🇺🇾
The best steaks in the world come from LATAM!!
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Brazil is already the most important agriculture market in the world. 🇧🇷
What's crazy is how much room it still has to grow!
O Brasil ainda tem um enorme potencial de expandir sua área agricultável.
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If I could show people 1 chart about LATAM it would be this.
I get comments all the time about, poverty, inequality, etc.
The reality...
The life of the poorest in LATAM is improving and is already drastically better than 20 years ago.
The bottom is being lifted up.
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Brazilian Oil giant Petrobras recently began exploring for oil on the equatorial margin, a region where Guyana found HUGE oil deposits.
Why is this important and what does this mean for Petrobras?
@NobreFrederico
Explains...
#PBR
$PBR
#Petrobras
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This is a really cool visual showing the size of each Brazilian state to other countries.
Brazil is HUGE!! 🇧🇷 🇧🇷
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Uruguay has one of the wealthiest and most stable economies in Latin America.
The most recent Latam Stocks newsletter covers a Uruguayan real estate and infrastructure company.
Learn more about
#Uruguay
and one of the few public companies listed on their stock exchange
👇👇
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Colombia is the world's leading producer of Emeralds!
🇨🇴🇨🇴
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The average wages for manufacturing workers in Brazil is over 5 times higher than in Mexico!!!
No wonder companies are choosing near shore their manufacturing to Mexico.
While at the same time many are closing plants in Brazil...
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Netflix has been putting out some pretty good Brazilian content recently.
Here are 3 Netflix shows you can watch to practice your Portuguese and learn a little about Brazilian culture.
👇👇
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"Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse."
"Brazil 🇧🇷 and China 🇨🇳 continue to strengthen their trade relations."
I have repeated these phrases quite a few times recently.
Let's take a quick look at the global beef market and I'll show you why...
👇👇
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@TaviCosta
Current government is not exactly pro mining.
In 2018 Mexico was the 29th most attractive mining jurisdiction in the world according to the Fraser Institute.
It's currently 37th.
It has become significantly more difficult to operate a mining company in Mexico.
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This is a great overview of Petrobras's 5 year CAPEX plan! $PBR 👇👇
$PBR $RIG $VAL $TDW $EC $SDRL $NE $DO Deepwater Weekly Update, Nov 27, 2023. "Petrobras 2024-2028 Strategic Plan Review"
Perspective: $PBR E&P Capex budget of $73B over the next 5 years is >2x the Enterprise Value of $RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL $TDW $ODL.OL combined at 11.27.2023.…
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Latin America is and will continue to be the most important commodities region in the world.
They hold huge reserves of many essential metals and minerals.
And their agriculture exports are feeding the whole world.
Bullish....
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I didn't know anyone was exploring for anything in São Tomé and Príncipe. $PBR
Really cool news release!
$PBR.A $PBR
#Petrobras
informs about operations in exploratory blocks in São Tomé and Príncipe
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When it comes to Venture Capital in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico dominate.
Combined these two countries received ~70% of all the venture capital invested in Latin America in 2021.
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@zerohedge
They are talking about a seperate company, publically traded in Australia, which is the largest franchisee of Dominos Pizza US, $DPZ, headquartered in Michigan.
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Brazil's Startup Ecosystem in numbers: 🇧🇷
~18,000 startups
~77% of all startup in Latin America are Brazilian
~70% of all VC money invested in Latin America goes to Brazil
~60% of all the unicorn startups in LATAM are Brazilian
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@calvinfroedge
Most have a hard time accepting that it's possible for the average Indian or Mexican to live a higher quality of life than Americans or Australians.
High Salaries does not equal high quality of life.
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El Salvador could become ground zero for
#Bitcoin
insurance products.
For example,
@massmutual
already has $100 million Bitcoin position.
They can acquire an insurer in ES for far less than that, and begin offering BTC insurances products globally, almost immediately.
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Suzano's scale is impressive
Their Eucalyptus plantations cover a land mass 17 times the size of New York City!
Whats even crazier
They recently built one of the largest mills in the world, & still dont have enough wood to meet the mills capacity!
@gabeboente
explains👇 $SUZ
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Brazil is going to be the 5th largest oil producer in the world by 2030.
Their invitation into OPEC+ makes sense in that context.
BRAZIL HAS BEEN INVITED TO JOIN OPEC+, GOVERNMENT ANALYZING INVITATION - BRAZIL GOVT SOURCE
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