Ian Bezek
@irbezek
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Investor. Former hedge fund analyst - Kerrisdale. Ian's Insider Corner newsletter on SeekingAlpha and Substack.
Sincelejo, Colombia
Joined February 2016
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It was great to talk with
@BillBrewsterTBB
on the risks and opportunities of investing in Latin America along with some investment philosophy. $EC $CIB, airports and more.
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$SOFI, the bank with a -9% ROE that spent $400 million putting its name on a stadium, is now diluting shareholders 20% big new shelf offering with the stock near all-time lows.
Another Chamath classic.
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When $COST stock is down 40% from here, there will be a flood of thinkpieces about how the company lost its way, its slipping internal culture blah blah.
Whereas, in fact, the problem was simply that folks were paying 50x earnings for a retailer.
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11 years ago, fresh out of college, I published an article suggesting Chinese fertilizer company Yongye was a fraud (Narr: Indeed, it was)
The Motley Fool fired back calling me an amateur idiot, and I was filled with self-doubt. But I didn't fold.
Always press on, fam.
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2023 elections:
Paraguay: Conservative landslide win
Ecuador: Conservatives win presidency in an upset
Colombia: Best results for conservatives in regional elections in decades
Argentina: Milei wins.
You can throw all those LatAm socialist tide hot takes in the 🗑️
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You want a 2024 prediction. Fine, buying Colombia’s leading bank at 5x earnings 14% divi yield, 0.8x book value 17% ROE probably outperforms. $cib
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$JD essentially flat since IPO despite growing revenues nine-fold and becoming exceptionally profitable over that stretch. Now has a huge buyback and dividend as well.
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In this house, son, we buy airports and we short airlines. Never get it confused.
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Clearly $META didn't work as a ticker symbol.
I suggest changing it to $WHAT as it highlights both WhatsApp and the collective confusion as to the company's business model.
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Reminder, Mexico-US trade is up 40% since the onset of the pandemic, whereas Chinese-US trade has plunged back to 2013 levels.
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Running $NVDA back up to 20x revenues when revenue growth is forecast to be zero this year is quite the interesting strategy. Let's see how it works out for them.
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Shockingly milk was not defeated by a faux white liquid made out of:
low erucic acid rapeseed oil, dipotassium phosphate, calcium carbonate, tricalcium phosphate, sea salt, dicalcium phosphate, riboflavin, vitamin A, vitamin D2, and vitamin B12.
$OTLY
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Coca-Cola Femsa -- the Mexican soda bottler -- up 43% past year and still at just 15x forward earnings and a 3.6% dividend yield.
You can buy really boring conservative businesses in emerging markets and still get paid when sentiment flips. $KOF
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Between Jan. 1999 and March 2000, $QQQ doubled and Berkshire went down 40%.
Investing is a tough game if you need short-term price action to always match your thesis.
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Married 5 years ago this week. And I'll never understand my wife chose this dorky Polish man, but it is what is.
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Since establishment the Ian’s Insider Corner portfolio is up:
2020: 43%
2021: 43%
2022: 14%
2023: 24%
Throw your darts at me for not being more aggressive but we still do alright while bunkering down for a potential recession.
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@DavidSacks
I don't keep more than $250k of cash at a poorly capitalized casino bank.
Highly doubt 99% of voters do either.
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Today I learned that VCs consider selling inventory at a large loss a good way to generate free cash flow.
Explains a lot.
Opendoor is one of only 7 public tech companies founded since 2003 w FCF of $1 B over the last 12 months.
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Colombia’s largest bank $cib is trading at 4x earnings, 0.69x book (nice), 17% avg ROE, 14% dividend yield and our main export (oil) is rising.
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This post got more than 10,000 likes. The guy that wrote it admitted he had no information for this claim, it was just a hunch. $CS, predictably, has not gone bankrupt.
Curate your feeds carefully.
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Little-known fact: Mexico's net migration rate is essentially flat.
The local economy is strong enough that Mexicans no longer move to the U.S. in any significant numbers.
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Ecopetrol $EC with a 50% total return over the past year. Now up to 5x earnings... got to love LatAm value stocks.
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A few stocks that will be trading a lot higher five years from now:
$crl
$omab
$hrl
$deo
$cib
$txn
$alsea
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Our favorite South American airport group growing revenues at 27% topline, selling for 6x EV/EBITDA and a single-digit forward P/E ratio after a huge earnings beat. $CAAP
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Probably not going to get too much cheaper than this. I like owning a tax on the next century or more of worldwide spirits consumption. $DEO
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Remember when Fintwit said it was too risky to invest in a state-run oil company in South America?
Turns out buying at 3x earnings is actually a margin of safety. $EC
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Today's incredible fact: The Colombian Peso 🇨🇴 is now up since 2003 against the British Pound.
Who knew investing in London on a 20-year time horizon had more FX risk than Bogota?
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$EC paying a $2.50 dividend on a $11 stock.
Not a bad yield.
$ec
#ecopetrol
Propuesta de pago de dividendo 2022: $593 por acción.
Ordinario: $487
Extraordinario: $106
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The price of oil has been averaging about $70 for a long time now, dating back to pre-pandemic days.
If an energy company is paying huge dividends or buying back lots of stock at $70 oil, it should do fine. If it isn't, I'd look elsewhere.
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Almost 1,200 new 52-week lows today across the U.S. exchanges.
Opportunities in most sectors and styles.
Fun market.
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Feels like Linde $LIN is the least discussed $200 billion market cap company ever.
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Narrator. Affirm lost $985 million this year. That's much greater than the $707 million they lost last year.
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This account hit 10,000 followers today. Thanks for reading! And as always, if you're going on vacation, please make use of some fine Mexican airports in your travels. $PAC $ASR $OMAB
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Kudos to the team at Getaround $GETR for a compelling late entry in the Worst SPAC of 2022 awards:
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Mexican airports $PAC $ASR $OMAB all up at least 40% off the recent panic lows with today's rally.
If you got some cheap shares due to the tourists screaming "socialism" a month ago, remember to say thanks.
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As a reminder, here's what happened when the Dow replaced $XOM with $CRM in 2020.
Amazon $AMZN will replace Walgreens $WBA in the Dow Jones Industrials Average Index
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Diageo $DEO already back to its lowest EV/EBITDA since 2016 aside from a week in March 2020.
Will be quite the opportunity if people keep panicking about the Britain currency/budget drama and we get one more leg lower.
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Alsea (Dominos/Starbucks Mexico) breaks out to new 5-year highs this week. However much Mexican consumer exposure you own, it's not enough.
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Looks like the hit will be high single digits for the airport stocks. h/t
@BrooksideSamson
Market may have miscalculated slightly sending these down 40% yesterday. $PAC $OMAB $ASR.
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I would like to congratulate $AI on growing revenues 0.1% year-over-year.
This is what I imagined the tech singularity would look like. Truly awe-inspiring.
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10 straight green candles.
Welcome aboard all new Bancolombia investors. $CIB
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Time for another Colombian Christmas.
Eating pernil, drinking Aguilas, and listening to Christmas salsa music at municipal noise code violation volume with approximately 40 of my wife's closest family members.
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$DEO still 35% off its all-time highs. EPS at record highs. Wonder how long this disparity will last.
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Ecolab, the dominant global player in sanitation and hygiene, is back to growth after its COVID-19 slowdown. $10k 40 years ago now $1.4 million. No real competition ( $DSEY is biggest lol), hard to disrupt, big M&A opportunity runway.
Compounders, water is safe to jump back in.
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The Bezek house is open. We welcome all faith and nationalities and pray for peace.
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Bancolombia $cib just blew out earnings and Colombian economic stats keep topping expectations. Mall tonight was jam packed.
But we have terrible vibes and I can’t find a single Colombian that is upbeat. 😐
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I am making ceviche, carne asado tacos, charcuterie, Pisco sours, margs, and pina coladas for 20 people at my wife’s birthday party tomorrow wish me luck.
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Good day for the airport crew.
$PAC +12%
$ASR +15%
$OMAB +9%
$CAAP new 52-week highs.
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Hormel Foods is trading at less than 13x earnings if you assume they go back to 2018 profit margins. Dividend King, consecutive increases since 1967.
Or perhaps thanks to COVID/GLP no one eats protein in the future. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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$CAAP up my whole cost basis in a day. Buy low, sit tight.
Must admit having the company's chief economist Milei getting elected president wasn't in my original thesis.
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$UPST revenues down 52% year-over-year, guiding to another sequential 35% decline next quarter.
Meanwhile, it is projecting losses larger than revenues going forward.
Board should shut the company down and liquidate to try to salvage any remaining shareholder value.
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Still wild that Venezuela is out here trying to grab most of Guyana's land.
This should put to rest the question of why Colombia maintains such a massive standing army.
Lot of countries have interesting decisions to make if the U.S. stops being global police force.
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Did you know there's a financial SuperApp in Peru with 7 million users (more than 20% of Peruvian adults) that is growing tx volumes at a nearly triple-digit rate?
No, you probably didn't, since it's owned by a bank $BAP that trades at a 9 P/E instead of being a shitco.
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Was talking with some foreign investors visiting Colombia this week.
Bancolombia $CIB rallied 30% last quarter
Sure, but that merely sent it from a 4x to 5x PE ratio, it still has a monopoly, and the yield is over 12%.
But it's Colombia, somehow something will go wrong...
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Unpopular theory: Brazil $EWZ will perform pretty well under Lula and his high social spending plans. (1/10)
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An investment in 5 leading staples companies have returned between 17x and 25x your money since 1995.
The multiple and interest rate matters very little. EPS growth only thing that counts long-term. If it is impaired, thesis has changed. If not, you should be buying today.
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@WealthOrDie
I know you're not supposed to say this on Fintwit, but Montreal is my favorite Canadian city for tourism.
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$sofi is a poorly run bank that spends more on stadium naming rights than anything useful.
Never made money and at more than 100x analysts’ delusionally optimistic forward estimates.
Stock probably triples from here because AI. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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On emerging market banks:
SVB went bust because it was taking deposits from unicorn companies at 0%, lending them to the U.S. treasury at 1.6% and levering that trade 10x.
None of the parts of this causality chain are even possible for EM banks!
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Apparently now that I’m a homeowner I’m supposed to post photos from my rooftop hammock.
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Impressive how many of these were Fintwit favorites last year.
The 30 worst performing Russell 1,000 stocks YTD heading into today were up right inline with the average stock in the index.
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As expected, minimal demand for the Colombian grocery store chain/mall operator Exito post-spinoff, shares down a quick 30%. Starts getting pretty interesting around 2,500 COP ($5 on the $EXTO ADR) imo.
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Doubled since that tweet. $12 today, $20 soon. Still so much disrespect for $CAAP compared to the other airport operators.
What's $1.72 per share of annualized earnings worth? Doubt we'll be seeing $CAAP below $6 any longer.
Revenues up 146% y-o-y which is also pretty cool. EBITDA back to pre-pandemic levels already.
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If your last 55 posts are 52 (about Israel), 3 flexing about meeting Warren Buffet, and 0 about investing you should probably become a politician. Your investors deserve better.
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Mexican industrial airport operator $OMAB up 6% today, 18% this month.
Reshoring, folks. It's happening.
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$OMAB panic today a great reminder of why EM investors love dividends. I bought more OMAB during the pandemic at $30, have gotten back $12.50/share in dividends to-date.
Rather have the cash than a smaller share count when crisis strikes.
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10% rip today for the Mexican airport crew today just days after the fearmongers were warning about FX depreciation and political jitters. $PAC
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Proud of you buddy, keep up the good work.
I already bottom ticked the bottom in $CHTR stock & I’m already winning big, you mindless fintwit bears took a massive L missing out on this one just because you can only think a year out like everyone else on fintwit, not me though.
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Mexico's salsa king $HERDEZ with the classic go up 1,500% and then take the next decade off chart formation.
EBITDA up 150% since 2013 though, so maybe stock price will start going up again sometime.
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Bancolombia $CIB reported net income up double digits y-o-y. ROE up to 20%. NIM up 200 basis points this quarter.
So little interest that Seeking Alpha didn't even bother to publish a news release for it. Stock at 52-week lows. P/E of 5.
Good times.
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Ultimately why Mexico $EWW will outperform Brazil $EWZ over time.
Manufacturing is higher-quality GDP than ag and mining exports. Proximity to US consumers is a massive edge.
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Sureste Airports $ASR now a clean double from the October panic lows. $OMAB and $PAC picking up steam too.
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New all-time highs for $OMAB today. Next stop $100. Particularly impressive as the Mexican ETF has pulled back 10% off the recent highs. Airports aggregate alpha, as always.
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Some epic selling in utility stocks. Not sure why no one cared about higher interests for utes until September and now it's worthy of a 25% decline but here we are.
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Hormel Foods $HRL up 16%. Wow!
With enough short sellers, even sleepy low-vol stocks can go wild.
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@RobinBrooksIIF
You forgot to mention that Panama also dollarized and grew its GDP per capita from $4,000 to $15,000 over the same period, trouncing all competition.
Dollarization is a tool that can be used for good or bad. Any economic regime would fail in Ecuador given its government.
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$ASR dumped 40% to $160 on some misleading headlines in Oct. 2023 and many on FinTwit rushed to tell you Mexico was an uninvestable socialist hellhole.
About that..
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Obligatory Argentina is doing something good so it's time to remind folks Argentine Airports $CAAP is still at just 6x EV/EBITDA and set for double-digit growth next year. 🇦🇷
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Just had more people show up to my New Year’s party at 2:30am. Colombians go hard.
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With Alsea (Domino's and Starbucks Mexico) hitting new highs today, the Mexican Domino's vs. US Domino's gap has now hit 150% since I first pitched it.
Still love Alsea here, but have to think $DPZ gets a bid at some point too...
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Colombian Peso now up 25% vs. Dollar since the lows last year. $CIB $EC $AVAL a lot more upside assuming this sticks, most of the move in the ADRs has just been FX rather than people pricing in improving fundamentals.
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Just want to thank
@peter_mantas
for pounding the table on the IT outsourcers right at the dead lows 50% ago. $EPAM $GLOB $DAVA
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The Google vs. ChatGPT thing is silly. Like 75% of top Google results were already written by AI or sound like it, vague nonsense written to hit SEO terms. AI content is already here.
You have to use sites like Quora and Reddit to get human-written answers as it is today.
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More factories to leave China. Many replacements will be set up in Mexico.
One of the largest and most obvious trends of the 2020s.
BREAKING
U.S. considers China sanctions to deter Taiwan action, per Reuters.
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My city was epicenter of a 4.5 magnitude earthquake Friday.
Shoutout to the mayor’s office: told my architect we needed a stronger foundation for my house due to unstable soil and seismic risk.
Approved our permit in 5 days once we made changes.
No damage from the quake.
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Profit margins for a lot of food companies are going to go back up.
Be careful with your staples shorts.
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I would like to congratulate $MRVL on growing revenues 1% year-over-year.
Almost keeping up with the inflation rate. Heady stuff for this AI leader.
I would like to congratulate $AI on growing revenues 0.1% year-over-year.
This is what I imagined the tech singularity would look like. Truly awe-inspiring.
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Tecnoglass $TGLS now an 18-bagger for anyone that bought the pandemic lows. Not bad for a humble Colombian window company.
(I bought most of my position at $5 and sold in the teens, so missed both the bottom and top ticks but oh well).
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No bear market in Mexican Domino's pizza and Starbucks sales. $ALSEA
Would love to know what part of the sell-off in American food names is Ozempic fears and what part is just factor and interest rate bets.
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You: We'll have to move out of the city if the birth control fails
I: Third heir is on the way.
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