Alex Krüger
@krugermacro
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🇦🇷 Economist. Trader. Advisory. Sharing views on crypto and global markets.
Kairos
Joined March 2012
1/ A recession is imminent, risk assets are expensive, and stocks always bottom during deleveraging driven recessions. Is a major crash inevitable? Not at all In this research report we explore how prevalent bearish theses are flawed and why we are bullish on risk assets.
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Make it happen
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senate Majority Leader Thune says a deal to end the US government shutdown is 'nearly ready.'
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Bring it on
*DEMOCRATS READY TO ADVANCE BILLS THAT MAY END SHUTDOWN: AXIOS *AT LEAST 10 SENATE DEMOCRATS MAY SUPPORT ADVANCING BILLS: AXIOS
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The bullish building blocks https://t.co/jlZVnNVofr
@DRFFowler Mainly upcoming dovish Fed + fiscal impulse accelerating in Q1 and Q2 + increasing liquidity (from QT to QE.b) + stocks uptrend driven by AI stocks & earnings.
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The bear thesis is a combination of "it's been four years" + "chart looks bad" + "degens are not coming back" + "AI is a bubble". That's about it. Very weak IMO.
One of the many overhangs on risk last week were the election results indicating that cost of living concerns were the main issue driving the electorate. Coming out of that, Trump had two paths. Either shift towards being hawkish on fiscal and monetary policy to force inflation
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The Monad airdrop is so tiny I get more money from X revshare on a single month
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Remarkable
Since then: SanDisk +541% Kioxia +503% Seagate +135% WDC +212% SK Hynix +180% Samsung +72% Micron +142%
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People confusing a one day bounce out of absurdly oversold levels with alt season and getting worried about it
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Calling for contagion after everything already blew up right before the market reverses. Classic.
A credit crisis in defi lending is becoming a crypto liquidity crisis. Very plausible contagion spreads from defi to cefi if collateral is unavailable for margin calls or hedges fail... Oct 10th round 2. Hope this doesn't play out but stay safe and avoid counterparty risk.
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Checks out
Unpopular opinion: Dino's rally is probably more about redemptions and long/short book unwinding than genuine conviction about France's future
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The first FOMC under the new Fed Chair will be on June 17, 2026. Much higher asset prices by then makes economic sense. Made a chart for you so you may see how this could look like. Zoom out.
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Did CT rotate from crypto to stocks at the stocks/crypto top?
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Excellent point https://t.co/7qidblWjmh
@krugermacro Fwiw, that's prob broadly true, but also onchain stats like this are less and less useful the more BTC is institutionalized. For one thing, a bunch of the old-coin onchain flow since 2024 is prob OGs moving coins to tradfi accounts where they can get prime brokerage, or
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Interesting https://t.co/cAYDCEFGMW
@krugermacro The number for 2013 and older coins is something like $10bn out of a total of $100bn that includes 5+ year coins So its less "OGs" and more 2017 cohort and onward
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Chart shows OG Bitcoin whales have been dumping non-stop since November 2024. That explains BTC's poor performance relative to risk assets in 2025. It also shows unusual resilience and absorption. In prior cycles price would have cratered under this pressure. Whales dumping
OG Bitcoin whales are dumping. This chart gives a good visual of how many super whales are cashing out of Bitcoin. All lines here are 7+ year on-chain spends from pre-2018 era OG Bitcoin Hodlers. 🟠Orange = $100M OG dumps. 🔴Red = $500M OG dumps. The chart is VERY colorful in
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