Kailash Concepts
@KailashConcepts
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Behavioral #Finance , Portfolio Strategy & #Quantamental Tool Kits Built by a Team with 70+ years of Experience Disclaimer:
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Last Seen Profiles
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We just published a single
#stock
write-up on $ARIS
"you have a rapidly growing company with a tremendous economic moat repurchasing shares and throwing off enough cash to pay double the dividend you receive as an owner of a large-cap index."
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2/ Engineers have nearly doubled fuel economy despite exploding vehicle size, weight and horsepower due to consumer preference for bigger, safer faster cars
This is proof of superb R&D by automotive OEMs
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1/ By June 8th of this year, the S&P500’’s Energy stocks were up 70% in a -13% market. From June 8 to June 24th the sector fell -22%. That’s 11 trading days.
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1/ Everyone is talking about
#copper
right now.
"Challenges in opening new mines expected to leave production lagging behind rising demand"
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Cash highest since April '01. Market fell another -37% after April '01.
Today = valuation on record margins
Just sayin.
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1/
@DoombergT
put out one of the best summaries of the tremendous success created by massive chemical facilities like BASF’s in Germany that most of us never have to see.
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1/ I’m staring at a list of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. The results are sorted by their weighting in the index from largest to smallest. At a 6.97% weight, $AAPL is at the top.
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Virtue-divestments = higher cost of capital = means the suppliers of said capital achieve higher returns.
We've had a few people, who do NOT own energy, tell us that our long energy thesis is now "consensus" (without irony)
Let this chart put that to rest:
Bloomberg is still pushing divestment from oil and gas. 🧐
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BEVs have 2x the inventory supply of ICE motors.
Bit early for an inventory pile-up in a business where investors have exponential expectations baked into multiples, no?
'The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has swelled nearly 350% this year, to more than 92,000 units. That's a 92-day supply, nearly twice the industry average. Dealers have a relatively low 54 days' worth of gasoline-powered vehicles in inventory.'
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1/ The chart below shows the cumulative taxes expensed by the constituents of the S&P’s energy sector vs. Apple.
Legendary for their tax evasion skills, KCR has not heard our politicians propose a windfall profits tax on Apple.
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@KobeissiLetter
The national debt and the burden it will place on future generations should be front-page news every single day. It is existential and should be treated as such.
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@GuyDealership
Could not agree more.
How many people have cars with perfect motors and transmissions and weird electronic glitches making the vehicle intermittently inoperable?
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This chart is another example of the reckless speculation underway today. Please read our blog to see how these speculative 20x price-to-sales firms did post the bubble and how they look today.
#stocks
#Speculation
#valueinvesting
$NKLA $SNOW $RIOT
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@KobeissiLetter
The concentration within these seven stocks is extremely dangerous.
Is this a function of herd behavior or genuine due diligence?
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@KobeissiLetter
What in the world is going on with car insurance inflation?
Could it possibly be due to the high repair costs associated with EVs?
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@JohnDSailer
Institutions that operate on merit will outperform institutions that operate on identities over the long-term.
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@MichaelAArouet
Over 33%, or ~1,000 of America’s largest listed companies, lose money or cannot afford to pay their interest expense. Let that sink in.
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@charliebilello
In defense of Campbell, at least their executives are way less likely to suddenly disappear.
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@KobeissiLetter
This aberrant market cycle will be intensively analyzed in business schools for generations.
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@SamanthaLaDuc
A Buffett Indicator reading above 200% is strong evidence of significant overvaluation.
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1/ Who keeps giving this guy money???? 🙄 💸
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8/ The slide below is from a
@PXDtweets
presentation at the start of June and shows the dividend on Pioneer’s stock at various levels of WTI crude oil.
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1/ Terrific chain. Simple “positive” & “negative” examples of how to clean up ESG.
One positive example follows below. 👇
I like serious environmentalists that can outline their positions in detail, and explain a problem and a proposed solution.
I don't like unserious environmentalists that haven't researched or understood the trade-offs of their proposals.
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@chigrl
Germany's "green" revolution ended up hamstringing its economy...hopefully other nations are taking note.
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@ecommerceshares
Someone on FinTwit recently said that Bezos' real genius wasn't logistics, merchandising or even AWS....
...it was selling a perpetual narrative and getting Wall Street to pay his workers at an ever lower cost of capital.
Cannot recall who, but well done.....
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We just showed you that 20% of all listed US
#equities
cannot afford to pay their interest expense, much less pay the principal back... The vulnerable slice of the US equity market has never been so broad or so weak. Full stop.
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@PXDtweets
@business
16/ What this suggests is that the market is pricing in oil at or below $60 when it is over $100.
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For any advisor or FA who has bought into the dogma of “only indexes” we ask you: do you think having levels of painfully inappropriate valuations in your clients’ portfolios is a good idea? If so, why?
$TSLA
#TeslaPSRatio
#indextax
Tesla’s stock has plunged 16% over the five sessions, marking its worst week since March 2020’s Covid-stricken market selloff
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Backing out
#stock
based
#compensation
, the S&P 500 is more expensive than any time in the last 20 years based on free cash flow yields.
Data ex-financials
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After backing out stock based comp they burned -$105ml in operating cash flow.
Can someone help me understand how a company that is burning cash can add value buying back their stock at 19x sales?
In Q2 2023, Palantir generated $28 million in GAAP net income, delivering our third consecutive quarter of profitability.
Our Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase program, authorizing repurchases of up to $1.0 billion of Palantir’s Class A common stock.
For more
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@CensoredMen
@robcollects11
Grateful to be living in America.
The stuff we are angry at one-another about is luxury problems.
Healthy reminder to see each other as "part-of" and try to set aside the "they" mentality so prevalent today.
Thank you for this!
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7/ History suggests these moments are fear-filled but also provide unusual opportunities – although I readily admit nobody knows how long these “crashes” can go on.
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5/ Most people I speak with are wary of them due to that fear and the belief the commodity price is vulnerable. Everyone seems to have their “trading hat” on (or their “ESG hat” on) and seems to be ignoring the fundamentals.
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@PXDtweets
9/ This is a company, like $DVN, that has adopted a very clear and simple payout structure. A base dividend that is fixed at $3.12 a share p.a. After paying that out, they return 75% of the remaining FCF to shareholders.
7/ We can rephrase the above as follows: if the oil price were to fall by 20% in the face of chronic underinvestment, shortages & soaring demand, $DVN would be an investment-grade large-cap company with a FCF yield in the teens with the bulk of it being paid out to equity owners.
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10/ ...unlike BEVs, PHEVs only impose modest pressure on the grid.
~29% of charging is in daylight hours when renewables are available.
PHEVs achieve the bulk of BEV benefits w/a fraction of the lithium w/o needing to rebuild the grid
PHEVs are a better solution than BEVs.
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@KobeissiLetter
An indication that Americans are trying to maintain their standard of living in spite of inflation, which normally forces people to scale back.
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@KobeissiLetter
@elonmusk
Yet another divisive controversy that pits Americans against one another on ideological grounds - when we should be seeking common ground to unite and solve the myriad problems facing the country.
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6/ Our internal work on the 2007 quant crash suggests that recent price action beneath the market’s surface has been as anomalous as the 2007 quant crash.
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@GuyDealership
This is after Toyota was shamed relentlessly because they didn't go all-in on EVs.
Refusing to follow the herd usually results in positive long-term outcomes.
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@PXDtweets
12/ Let's look again: At $60 WTI this thing generates enough FCF to pay a $17/share dividend. At today’s share price that is a 7.2% dividend yield assuming oil plummets to $60 for the remainder of the year. The current indicated yield is over 13% according to
@business
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3/ On a call with a friend/PM at “XYZ” we talked briefly about energy. I commented that the stocks seemed to be discounting $75 oil. His view was that if he put his “trading hat on” that oil going from $100 to $75 would bury the stocks.
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@chigrl
Banks should focus on banking. Environmentalists can focus on the environment. This is not complicated.
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@KobeissiLetter
Americans are drowning in debt, yet economists & other "experts" remain "puzzled" by the fact that Americans aren't enthusiastic about the state of the economy.
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Kailash is providing a free weekly email titled Charts for the Curious with the hopes these charts create insightful dialogue. We are blessed and honored to have thousands of readers spanning from many of the greats to individual investors.
Join here:
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10/19 "A growing number of PE firms are establishing new funds to buy
#portfolio
#companies
from funds they already control."
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4/ The chart below shows the weighting in the S&P 500 Index of stocks valued at over 10x P/S.
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@KobeissiLetter
Historically, when market participants begin to adopt the "but this time it's different," in regards to bubbles, it always ends bad for them.
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@LizAnnSonders
@nardotrealtor
Feel bad for the young people who are trying to make a life for themselves.
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@LanceRoberts
Agree that margins will fall Lance – to where is what we wonder.
As you know: with margins above the prior 100 year peak in 1929, the risks are without precedent
As always, grateful for any thoughts
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@chigrl
Did India not get the memo that they must transition to green energy, regardless of economic & social impacts?
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@Josh_Young_1
Been doing this 27 years. Never seen a thesis sit in plain daylight like this before.
Bizarrely simple = paranoia I’m missing something = can’t find it = sit tight & we’ll do alright. -Matt
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@EPBResearch
Oly if government, education and healthcare jobs don't actually count as jobs with pay right?
These jobs are as real as the epic employment boom by reckless VC speculators built on 0% rates and cheap low-quality debt no?
NOT POLITICAL COMMENTARY!
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@DanielSLoeb1
Something to ponder
@DanielSLoeb1
Margins are at 100 year highs…higher than the prior peak in 1929.
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Stock Market Bubble - Record Returns & Record Prices:
The chart shows the rolling annual returns of the S&P 500 since 1963
The market has never run this far this quickly to a multiple this high.
#StockMarket
#SP500
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@PXDtweets
@business
13/ The slide below shows that they have drilling inventory of 20 years that allows them to break-even at $40 WTI. So the company is not running off the last few years of available oil or facing some huge problem from high-grading to pump margins short term.
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@tedcross
Fantastic post.
One of the things very few people are focused on.
The world takes supply for granted. A hard shock could be coming.....
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@PXDtweets
10/ After that they use the rest of FCF to buy back stock or pay-down debt which is net $3bn and going away quickly.
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2/ Not really surprising considering the relative performance.
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@MacroCharts
Sometimes it feels like there is money lying in plain daylight.
What could we be missing here?
Indexes almost back to the '21 peaks, multi-trillion dollar quality at 3% FCF yields with money markets yielding 5.5% and real-economy stocks at 10% - 20% FCF yields.
How this?
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@GuyDealership
as bubbles deflate, they have rip-roaring short lived rallies followed by money siphoning declines.
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@KobeissiLetter
From a logical perspective, it would be difficult to make a compelling case for a "comfortably long" mentality.
But the markets haven't reflected logical reality in quite some time.
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@DoombergT
2/ Barring some very good fortune we are all going to be learning about the business of chemical plants.
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@DonMiami3
In 1999, Buffett explained that if corporate margins got above 6% that meant workers were getting crushed and we'd have real social problems.
Well margins are over 10% today - above the last high in 1929.
The good news is we've been here & can recover
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@PXDtweets
11/ The presentation was made when the stock was at $260 per share. It is now at $235.
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@Josh_Young_1
@BisonInterests
Truly remarkable how uncomfortable it has been owning stocks up 60%+ in a down -20% tape
When it gets comfortable then I will worry….
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4/ This is a common refrain that the stocks are vulnerable if the commodity goes lower and I don’t disagree.
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Such an important piece of research by
@BisonInterests
We are willfully walking ourselves into catastrophe
Gas to Oil Switching – Winter is Coming
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@KobeissiLetter
It will be interesting to see if we are witnessing profit-taking or if this is the early stage of a correction.
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@KobeissiLetter
@GlobalMktObserv
Even Larry Fink is sounding the alarm now, stating that the situation is more urgent than he can ever remember.
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Basics & Essentials (again!)
Anyone talking about how $XOM just made as much money as $AAPL this quarter yet Apple is worth ~7x as much as Exxon?
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@chigrl
How is it that such well-intended people do not realize they are effectively the "pro-famine" crowd?
Where do they think food, heating and A/C come from?
Routinely over 106 degrees in India with high humidity killing people. 80% of the population does not have A/C
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At $3 trillion dollars $AAPL is:
An ex-growth
#techstock
trading at 30x earnings
That's a 65% premium to the risk free rate &
Worth more than the entire US
#EnergySector
...
Which controls the bulk of
#shale
assets which produced 70% more oil than
#SaudiArabia
.
Thoughts?
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@Geiger_Capital
It's "boiling the frog" style incrementalism...slowly eating away at purchasing power.
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Look at the
#valuation
spread below. If you believe history rhymes, there may be more tough sledding ahead for
#Growth
compared to
#Value
.
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Well said
@agnostoxxx
!
What IF...(BIG IF)
Yields peaked...
Dollar peaked...
BUT earnings keep going down the toilet?😏
Shocking right?
FYI this happened in 2000: the 2-year peaked at 7% then declined to 1.6% over 2 years. Meanwhile, the Dollar was flat whereas the $NDX lost ...80% of its value
#Pain
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@DoombergT
10/ Turning on coal but not stopping the nuclear shutdown is an odd step that suggests German politicians and public (?) still think this issue is short-term. Maybe it is.
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@JavierBlas
It's shocking that common sense statements like this are considered "controversial" to many people.
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