Daniel S. Loeb
@DanielSLoeb1
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Investment analyst at Third Point LLC since 1995. Columbia College ‘83 🥲
Joined October 2020
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Loro Piana's worst day makes Cucinelli's best look like a day in the life of Ivan Denisovich.
Brunello Cucinelli’s day sounds pretty, pretttty good
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We are born alone; we die alone; and, we face bear markets alone.
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Just because a stock is down does not make it cheap.
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Who wants their gravestone to read “He earned a high rate of return” ? So much more to life.
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Outed as a
#hodlr
SCOOP: Hedge funder
@DanielSLoeb1
’s $17 billion
@ThirdPointLLC
is a client of
@coinbase
's custody arm, SEC filings show.
@realDannyNelson
reports
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I was in Israel last week visiting founders, entrepreneurs, VCs and the division of a portfolio company in Jerusalem. For a country of strong-willed individualists, nobody pushed back on vaccines or showing proof to enter restaurants. It was thrilling to be there many levels.
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The inarticulate man behind the curtain tossing a word salad and using his father's money to support countless "progressive" causes including the election of lax prosecutors, defund the police and pro-Hamas riots.
#luckyspermclub
George Soros heir, Alex Soros, delivers breathless temper tantrum about Trump in front of Davos elite:
"One man, Donald Trump, literally came in and just took that, took that, took that all away. Ehm, you know so, ehm, you know so, ehm, you know."
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I don't see the doomsday scenario playing out in SV for startups who unfortunately banked with SVB. Instead, VCs are coming together to provide 0 interest bridge financing to help companies make payroll and meet other needs for the coming weeks.
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@CundillCapital
If I could advise my younger self, I would say to avoid such confrontational interactions and to treat everyone with kindness and respect. Lewis was clearly not a cultural fit for me or my firm, but there was no need to engage like that or share. Seems immature in hindsight.
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I've asked my analysts to promptly re-create Elon Musks projections and discount rate used to back into/reverse engineer the discount rate used to arrive at this valuation.
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Like enjoying lunch at Asador Etxebarri, imbibing '82 Cheval Blanc or reading The Count of Monte Christo, my life would be emptier without seeing content like this on my Twitter feed.
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Anyone teaching a value investing class or one on investment psychology should use this memo as a treatise to study the mindset of stonk hodlers. Note the disparaging comments on luddites who look at archaic measures of value like cash flow as short term traders.
@mjmauboussin
The world today appears to be run by the "profitless tech" companies of the past. ARK invests in companies that we believe will change the world & generate extraordinary cashflow at scale, not mature companies catering to short-term investors. Learn more:
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Mean reversion bias: The belief that once we put 2020 behind us 2021 would be back to normal.
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Just finished Mary Shelly’s Frankenstein. Now going to check out these books that just arrived recommended by a fintwit friend.
#ABL
Always Be Learning
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When markets shift, I always say they don't ring a bell, but they do blow a dog whistle. Anyone who else hear a high pitched sound last week ?
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It's difficult to compete as an investor now if you don't expand your investable universe into private securities. First, you miss the best entry points; second you will not be tuned into the new innovators that maybe about to disrupt your public cos.
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How refreshing to have such a concerned and hard working mayor up early on a Saturday doing his job! The last one slept in and didn't leave the house till almost noon.
Back at City Hall after checking in with
@NYCSanitation
and everyone working to keep our city moving.
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I wonder what her bull case is.
Cathie Wood says Bitcoin will be worth 1 million per coin by 2030
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Uncle Larry's economic predictions remind me of the time as a young analyst when I equivocated in a stock recommendation and my boss replied, "based on your presentation, you seem to have a strong conviction that the stock is either a buy, a sell or a strong hold."
My gut is still that the market is underestimating the inflation risks in the current situation and therefore probably overestimating the amount of cutting by the
@federalreserve
that is going to take place. But it's a fairly close call and the Fed is certainly doing the right…
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I tend to be more of a bottoms up analyst but 2023 should prove to be a year of a battle of two narratives. Rates and inflation on one hand versus GDP growth, margins and ultimately earnings on the other. Markets will be further determined by participant's outlook from current...
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I’ve been doing a deep dive into crypto lately. It is a real test of being intellectually open to new and controversial ideas. Culturally I compare bridging the crypto world with the old as akin to finding a portal
@chbetween
two distinct worlds in the multiverse.
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I finally understand
@chamath
's sense of humor; at least I think I do. It has a certain Rabelaisian quality of excess, satire and the absurd which some people take too literally--and which he enjoys.
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How can I not be long $TWTR with content like this ? (even if it is a link to a tik tok video)
I am obsessed with this Jeff Bezos song: how have I not heard it before?
He’s living his best life.
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Healthy mindset. You will also not be as young as you are at this moment ever again. So why not enjoy life, love yourself, your family and fellow humans? Try not to catastrophize and express gratitude. --a few helpful affirmations I remind myself of daily.
Despite all the dystopian news media, concerns about climate change, rising inflation, and deadly pandemics—I believe that today is, by far, the single best time in all of human history to be alive.
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@Jkylebass
@SecYellen
@federalreserve
Try intermittent fasting and you’ll save money and glucose spikes.
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Anyone interested in business excellence should study Danaher $DHS and its Business System, DBS. This single page from their website and accompanying video is more valuable than a two year MBA.
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Thought for the day: There two basic models for valuation. One based on current financial metrics: PE, FCF, TEV/EBITDA, P/BV etc. The other model incorporates option theory which is a better model in times of distress. Think of the security as an option priced out of the cont
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I have to say this was a thoughtful and principled response.
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Risk innovation of the year: Credit Suisse . Belated congratulations on this prestigious award and to mag for its inspired choice of recipient.
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I've been fascinated for years by "mindset" since reading Josh Waitzkin's Art of Learning which referred to Carol Dwek's book by that title. We all know about the importance of a "growth" mindset versus a "fixed" mindset in every aspect of life from parenting to investing.
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I have both learned a lot and monetized a few lessons learned on
@patrick_oshag
podcasts. I’ve made at least a dozen mandatory for my team.
10/ Invest Like The Best
This has become one of the most popular business podcasts on the planet, and for good reason.
@patrick_oshag
is the host and attracts incredible guests to share stories, ideas & methods that always make me think
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My analysts find it peculiar that I refer to Draft Kings ticker: $DKNG as “Donkey Kong”
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With the experience of years and wisdom of age, I would have told my younger self to lay in wait and put a good chunk of my capital in bitcoin starting in 2009. 😀
@DanielSLoeb1
Hey, Dan - you’ve been investing for ~25/30yrs, if you could go back to your early days investing/as a PM - what do you wish you knew. Thanks - learned a lot from your insights
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I want to thank everyone for the thoughtful content and lol humor I encountered here today. I'd say all's well that ends well but I think this story is just beginning.
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Even prize fighters get 6 months off between fights, NFL players a week. Only 2 days off between years makes me want to join a union.
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One lesson to be learned by the collapse of FTX and the chaos and risk of collapse of OpenAI is the importance of both board composition and board governance. I bet most market participants don't even look at the board: individual record, skills and incentives.
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President Biden’s tweet ordering gas stations to lower prices betrayed what seems to be a willful ignorance of how the private economy works.
File under Gambling in Casablanca.
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A bit of a leap of faith from slowing inflation to wild parties on East Egg.
If inflation is unwinding, as we believe, then we could be heading back to the future, the Roaring Twenties, the last time several general purpose technologies evolved at the same time: telephone, electricity, and the internal combustion engine. The setup is remarkably similar!
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Does raise a valid question as to why taxpayers support a biased, Pravda-like news outlet. The insensitivity not to mention the bias is equally stunning.
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Venture backed companies had a chance to see which VCs stood by ready to assist with payroll and other short term cash needs with zero interest loans and which hemmed and hawed or claimed their GPs didn’t have capital like that guy from a multi- billion quant shop.
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Sometimes the bigger risk is not being involved than staying in your comfort zone on the sidelines. 💎🙌🏻🚀
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Due to a few impostors and my desire to support
@elonmusk
financially, I decided to spring for the blue check.
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Yesterday we got to see what Cubic Zirconia hands look liked in Chinese Internet stonks and ADRs
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@avichal
Munger is a man of great wisdom whose commentary and writings are an indispensable part of the investing canon. One idea I think is essential to push back on is “invest in what you know”. This is a fundamental Mindset flaw and surprised this view is being ascribed
We need to stop listening to Buffet and Munger for investing advice. Software changed the game and left them behind.
Performance since 2008 crash, when Buffet notoriously struck "sweetheart" deals:
* Nasdaq : +848%
* SPY: +444%
* Berkshire: +388%
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company performance versus '24 and beyond. I don't think camping out in the last decade's darlings, with rosaries in hand, hoping for a comeback, will be the winning strategy. We have already seen the revenge of the value nerds. I think more to come.
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The murder of Shinzo Abe is as devastating. When we were active in Japan, we had numerous meeting with his cabinet and administration with him personally. His Three Arrow policies of fiscal, monetary and structural reform were important and visionary.
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Try walking by 116th and Broadway. Talk to a few of your constituents.
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My friend, Imma push back on the contention that the "economy is accelerating hard" This job is sometime like a game of 3 card monte where the dealer tries to trick you into thinking you see the card. The cpi and jobs number seems to have exaggerated economic strength due to
1) The economy is accelerating hard in 2023, which cannot be “gratifying” to Powell. They were hoping for steady deceleration, which just isn’t happening.
No landing = hard landing is a good take from Michael Hartnett.
Bearish charts, followed by more positive ones next tweet.
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Students: What type of common bias and logical fallacy is on display in this post?
Housing prices are dropping. Are people who bought houses over the last two years calling their realtors to complain they overpaid… that’s a lot of people, they just don’t realize their house values have gone down 20% thanks to the Fed…
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Let's not forget, boys and girls, that the ability to write and communicate well is a prerequisite to being a great investor. Read fiction and take your English classes seriously along with accounting and economics. Plus, it will make you a more interesting person and bring joy.
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I especially liked this
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Boomer who successfully navigated the 2000-2 market correction.
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@BillAckman
@Harvard
With the current controversy around Claudine Gay has anyone called into question her treatment of Professor Roland Fryer?
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Unlikely China or Russia would do this. I am the product of a public school Honors program at Pali High.
#sad
! Seattle closes gifted and talented schools due to racial inequity.
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Great advice and I'd describe slightly differently: Form authentic relationships with your peers inside and outside your firm and treat everyone with respect. You'll be shocked how many of these people will be running the world in 10-20 years and the people you were kind to ...
Principle: Find your growth tribe.
Having a decentralized friend group to grow with is a real competitive advantage.
• Unconnected to other groups
• Different backgrounds
• Range of experience sets
• Novel perspectives
This is your growth tribe. It’s a huge value unlock.
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My test of almost any exec is whether they have studied DBS and how they infuse kaizen (continual improvement) into their culture and processes. A couple of my biggest business failures are not investing in Danaher alumni who went on to run GE and Ingersol Rand.
Our
@artofinvest
teacher today is Mitch Rales, one of the most iconic business builders and philanthropists of our time. Having cofounded
@DanaherCorp
40 years ago alongside his brother and best friend, Steve, the Rales boys have strung together a track record of compounding that…
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I'm printing this out.
Seeing a lot of this …
Blame the Fed when stocks go down.
Praise yourself when stocks go up.
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You know why they call it a "carry trade"? Because inevitably you get "carried" out.
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@ParikPatelCFA
We do not offer discounts. For off-price go to the Brunello Cucinelli outlet store near you.
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I think we are about to hear a change in the sneering intonation of "OK Boomer!" to reflect a change of meaning from "you're too old to understand and i'm too busy to explain it to you to one of respect , "OK Boomer, thank you for sharing your wisdom; I had no idea issuing stock
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This is the very sort of contrarian mindset needed to be a great value investor. Also the willingness to stay in a position despite negative market feedback.
In 2022 I quit my job at The Daily Caller to report on corruption at Harvard.
I moved to Mexico to stretch out my savings, and wrote a dozen articles about Claudine Gay. They had zero impact.
Two years later, I am vindicated. Always bet on yourself.
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Remember when the President ran on a platform of unifying the country?
Building an economy for families who rely on their weekly paycheck – not their stock portfolios – to put food on the table.
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I'd rather see this cover on Barron's or Business Week, but most hopeful thing I've seen in a while.
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Missed my firm's 27th year anniversary on June 1. Been a great ride and very grateful to my investors, colleagues, buy-side and sell side friends. I can honestly say that the hedge fund community has countless brilliant, eccentric and wonderful people despite a
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I would not have spent all that time learning to build spreadsheets on Lotus 1-2-3. I would have put 10% of my portfolio in Bitcoin in 2010.
If you could go back and redo how you learned to become an investor, what would you do differently?
What would you do more of?
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With compelling content like this, how is it possible that $NFLX is losing so many subs?
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I’d like to draw attention to the fact that neither Monsieur
@plaffont
not I possess the blue check so many covet. I think it suits our scrappier style of investing to remain check-less.
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Why foster bitterness between various crucial parts of the free enterprise system? Employment opportunities exist because of both our entrepreneurial spirit and the ability of growing companies to access venture capital, IPO equity and debt. We are all in this together.
Wall Street didn’t build America.
The middle class built America.
And unions built the middle class.
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I think my dry sense of humor may have been lost on a few of my newer Twitter friends.
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As a yoga practitioner, I applaud the Harvard Corp board for the apparent act of intellectual contortion required to come to its conclusion. 👏
As an Editor-in-Chief of a journal for the past 20 years, I deal with plagiarism claims with some regularity and I'd love to know what these folks who dismiss this case think "actual plagiarism" looks like. Nobody is submitting Hawking's seminal paper on…
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If you read books like Bernard Baruch’s autobiography about his investing a century ago, you learn he
1) invested in cutting edge technology and growth investing like steel mills and copper mines and 2) he frequently invested in private companies that subsequently went public
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People interested to hear what I read: About 15% of what I read are “practical” books about investing, leadership or psychology/human performance. The rest is mostly novels. One book I loved recommended to me by
@nfergus
and loved by
@GavinSBaker
is
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@ParikPatelCFA
@elonmusk
The paltry stakes they do own were likely acquired by gifts of free options as well. Thus most directors have no skin in the game.
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"I work while my enemies slumber and take rest while they engage in drink and revelry..."
Old aphorism of mine came to mind while in discussion with group of friends early this a.m. on economic trends. In retrospect was likely trying to capture the tone of Zarathustra.
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I spent a year working for Chris Blackwell in the music industry and took a 6 month hiatus from work (i.e. unemployment) as an opportunity to drive around the country opening savings accounts at mutually held S&Ls which later demutualized and provided the seed capital for TP.
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Swan is a class act and did the right thing for all stake holders stepping aside for Gelsinger.
Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down in February, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him
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“I thought my baseball career was probably over,” says Eric Brodkowitz, a Goldman Sachs analyst who instead helped pitch Israel to an improbable berth in the Olympics.
I’d like to interview this young man if he ever decides to leave Goldman.
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@rsandler21969
@APompliano
I find fascinating how so many tech people (many who I otherwise admire) who have only a vague understanding of accounting let alone balance sheets, have suddenly become experts in assessing bank liquidity, solvency and arcane derivatives. Sound advice, Ricky.
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