Is the "twilight of shale" here and what does it mean for the oil market? Hear what the #1 shale company on the planet is saying on the topic in our Ninepoint Energy Strategies weekly update.

The IEA is set to capitulate on their "the end of oil" call and in so doing will mark the finale to the era of "energy ignorance":

Important development: sentiment towards the energy sector remains at a record low, and in my opinion one of the largest reasons for this has been the relentless doomsday preaching by the IEA proclaiming "the end of oil." This narrative, supported by eco-evangelistic "scenarios"

No other country would do this to themselves. https://t.co/kZ4v8NLrJr

I joined Peter and Jackie on the @arcenergyinst podcast this week to discuss oil, natural gas, M&A, the importance of share buybacks, and the likelihood of Canada getting things built again:

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An oil market without spare capacity is like a home owner without fire insurance. This is a notable pivot by Saudi, historically the industry's insurance monopoly. What is taken for granted and unappreciated (cost of maintenance) can easily be taken away, as we are seeing now.

Is the oil market tighter than consensus believes? Chronic underperformance vs. "allowable production" would suggest so. The result: less spare capacity, tighter forward balances, less draconian (<$50/bbl) implied pricing, and Saudi 100% in the driver's seat going forward.

Energy Aspects: "During our last trip to the region in July, every refinery and physical trader stated they were already receiving volumes far more than official quotas from most countries except Saudi Arabia." The oil market may just be tighter than consensus believes...

The battle of the bulls vs. the bears in oil rages on, and we will know who is right in the next ~ 2 months. While "cause for pause" keeps us in natural gas names for now, we think the next bull market for oil is not that far away:

Energy Aspects: "we now think the group is likely to begin unwinding the next 1.66 mb/d layer of cuts before long, whether this process commences in October or soon after."

US oil inventory levels are quickly normalizing, with the deficit to pre-covid levels hitting the lowest level in ~10 months (bearish). We think inventory builds are about to become much more "observable" in the coming weeks..."cause for pause."

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This is why natural gas has quickly gone from a "bridge fuel" to THE fuel of the future:

If realized, this final unwind would by our estimates wipe out ~ all of OPEC's remaining, and now normalized,spare capacity, exposing the world to any actual supply outage. Has the burden of maintaining spare capacity been taken for granted for too long??? https://t.co/prUWLvoHfT

Early data shows OPEC production up 435k bbl/d MOM in September. With only 4 countries possessing spare capacity (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq), we would consider OPEC spare capacity to now be fully normalized (~2.1MM Bbl/d vs. 106MM Bbl/d of demand) eliminating a key headwind.

You can't be bullish the first without being bullish the second...natural gas is the fuel of choice to satisfy the significant increase in power demand scaling in real-time: affordable, available, and reliable.

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Oil inventories in "visible" areas like the US remain at multi-year lows, while total global oil inventories have climbed this year meaningfully more than average. With OPEC exports set to increase + Guyana/Brazil ramp, we think OECD inventories will soon begin to loosen.

Sentiment towards the energy sector remains miserable, while valuations relative to other sub-indices are extremely compelling. The only upside from this? Canadian energy companies YTD have been able to buy back $4.8BN of stock at attractive prices.

One of the biggest debates amongst energy analysts today is what the Fall will bring for oil. Implied balances point to a massively oversupplied market in the short-term, with 2026 builds as high as 2MM Bbl/d. Yet, OPEC+ exports have greatly lagged expectations, up only 0.6MM

Is Canada finally starting to wake up to its "energy superpower" potential???

My thoughts on Cenovus buying MEG Energy: https://t.co/WV290vYUk0

A sad day for the oil patch. Opportunism has resulted in the likely premature end to what was about to be one of the most significant compounders of meaningful share buybacks in Canadian history.