Warren Pies
@WarrenPies
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Founder @3F_Research | PM $RAA | $FCTE | Formerly with Ned Davis Research | Recovering Attorney (step 4) - Not investment advice
FL
Joined February 2014
Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut. Would put the market at 5,200 by May... First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast!
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Similarly, the @3F_Research Sentiment Composite still reflects excess optimism but is rolling over now...
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Inverse ETF volume (as % of total spec volume) moved from mid-20s to low-30s on yesterday's selloff. Still reflecting retail enthusiasm. For perspective, in recent years, modest corrections stop around 40% (see "yen carry")...more severe cases require >50% (liberation day).
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Why do markets feel so different ever since COVID? @WarrenPies breaks down his "debasement" framework and why it’s (still) reshaping everything - from how we view cash to hard assets. Recession risk, AI, market valuations, + more. NEW @excessreturnspod
https://t.co/QYSg7HmM7m
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S&P 500 The market was STRETCHED...only 7th 119 day stretch w/o a 3% pullback and the strongest ever. 3-6% pullback healthy/necessary and expected...
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I always enjoy catching up with @MorganLBrennan Yesterday we talked gold (bullish still) and oil (bearish still).
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Buying oil in front of a burgeoning glut b/c the oil/gold ratio is stretched is...
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Whose better than Warren when it comes to high value, simply displayed data? GPU demand continues to be very solid despite some headlines.
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Endorse
1/ I’m on Team Surplus. I’m unapologetic about it. It is in the room with us right now but we can’t see it. But it will reveal itself gradually. #OOTT
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Also Oil in transit precedes structure BUT Floating storage lags structure
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For those who are confused: Oil in transit—>Oil in tanks—>Term structure weakens (from backwardation towards contango).
Back to this oil-on-water thing - our S&D model shows a modest surplus for September, oil-on-water indicates a glut - a surplus of >3 Mbd. This glut is on the water, heading to onshore inventories.
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I always enjoy catching up with @MorganLBrennan Yesterday we talked gold (bullish still) and oil (bearish still).
Investor fears of debasement support a secular bull market for gold, says @3F_Research’s @WarrenPies
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Investor fears of debasement support a secular bull market for gold, says @3F_Research’s @WarrenPies
cnbc.com
Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss investor fears of debasement, the shift from principal risk to purchasing power risk, gold’s multi-year bull...
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Final S&P 500 poll: Pretty big sentiment swing compared to last December 👀
Is the S&P 500 more likely to end 2025?
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Appreciate that @APompliano Enjoyed the conversation!
I believe @WarrenPies is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. He has a unique view on currency debasement and why investors should be allocating to stocks, bitcoin, gold, and real estate. I sat down with Warren this morning to discuss what investors need to know.
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I believe @WarrenPies is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. He has a unique view on currency debasement and why investors should be allocating to stocks, bitcoin, gold, and real estate. I sat down with Warren this morning to discuss what investors need to know.
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Then mid-year washout... https://t.co/QS1mnFPFTp
S&P 500 - STRATEGIST TARGETS Strategists continue to dial down their year-end S&P 500 price targets, which cures one of our big concerns coming into 2025 (i.e. strategist optimism). Excerpt below from the 5/1 @3F_Research report - case for equities and bottom signs.
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Where we started... https://t.co/Sdkflkj5bu
SENTIMENT Wall Street strategists spent 2024 with targets well below the S&P 500. Next year, though, strategists are poised to lift their 2025 targets by 20% (vs 2024 marks) and 11% above the spot S&P 500 (~6,700). This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record.
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S&P 500 Second straight year that the market enters Q4 with Strategists year end targets below the market's current level. Can't believe we are set up for another year-end chase...
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