Warren Pies
@WarrenPies
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Founder @3F_Research ...Formerly with Ned Davis Research, Recovering Attorney (step 4), Highlighting when I'm rt...downplaying when I'm wrong.
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Joined February 2014
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Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut.
Would put the market at 5,200 by May...
First time speaking w/ the great
@ScottWapnerCNBC
was a blast!
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OIL
Hedge funds/CTAs are now massively net short gasoil futures.
In last five years, Managed Money has been net short only three other times:
-Late 2018,
-COVID (3/20),
-Late-2020
Big oil rally followed every case...
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The 2-Year Treasury is now well below the Fed Funds Rate (chart below).
This is the market telling the Fed to stop hiking.
Historically, a FFR-2YR inversion kicks off a chain reaction in fed policy and fixed income.
Quick thread on what history says is next.
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1Yr Yield is now higher than S&P 500 earnings yield.
Hasn't been like this since late 2000...
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Until this cycle, Treasury bonds had rallied at every Fed pause.
Assuming July was the last hike (which I believe), bonds are not behaving anything like they have in previous cycles.
@3F_Research
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Kaplan on CNBC saying we must "slow the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act to slow inflation."
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The spread between the FFR and 2YR yield is now +100 basis points.
This deep of an inversion has only occurred BEFORE major crisis events.
It has only ended AFTER the Fed eased.
Bottom Line: The bond market is sending distress signals, but the Fed is not responding.
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CRUDE OIL
Last week's rally triggered a powerful Managed Money buy signal for Crude.
Hedge funds short positioning had reached levels last seen during the initial COVID craze.
They are now unwinding.
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1/
IMO the S&P 500 is at an important juncture.
Seasonality (and consensus) expect a Q4 rally.
My question: Where will the leadership come from?
Equal-weight S&P has retraced the entire "Q2 broadening rally" and is below its 150/200-day SMAs.
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1/
Interesting article this morning from
@NickTimiraos
ahead of Jackson Hole.
The premise: Long-term interest rates (may) have shifted higher post-pandemic.
Yet, the Fed has not officially acknowledged this shift. It seems this acknowledgement is coming.
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Real house payments are now ~2,900/month
Historically, real home payments above $2,000 slow construction spending and then payrolls
Restoring housing affordability - without crashing prices - is key to pulling off a soft landing
This is possible, but improbable...quick thread
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90% chance that the high for oil is in for the year.
Which means the high for yields (10 yr) is likely in as well.
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I spoke to a client/oil veteran last week. He is well known with a long history in shale and friendly w/ OPEC players. What he said caught my attention:
"I have spoken to key OPEC players privately. They know that shale has big problems and are going to press their advantage."
OIL MARKET: Saudi Energy Minister tells oil speculators to "watch out"; he says that OPEC+ should be vigilant and proactive |
#OOTT
#SaudiArabia
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We are in the early innings of a new commodity secular bull market.
Ramping demand will drive metals.
Constrained supply will drive hydrocarbons.
Historically, equities enter secular bear markets during commodity bulls.
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I'm hearing more and more people justify the stock bull continuing by rotating into new leadership like Energy.
This is not going to happen.
Energy leadership is unhealthy and, when it persists, it is the death knell for bull markets.
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OIL: Hedge Fund Capitulation.
Saudis have won the fight against speculators. Managed Money short positioning falls to 12%.
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It looks like oil is setting up for an epic buy signal.
Our Model has been neutral since last summer, but things are now happening under the surface.
Just my humble opinion.
@3F_Research
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Late-cycle Energy performance is much different around hard and soft landings.
Heading into a recession, the Energy Sector leads the S&P.
Around soft landings, Energy lags significantly.
Oil's late-cycle performance can cause a recession or facilitate a soft landing.
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Hedge funds and CTAs now liquidating oil longs and adding shorts.
Total Managed Money short positioning in oil futures has shot up from 11% to 21%.
We have to wait for this to play out, but, if you are waiting to get long, this is what you want to see.
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CPI
Quick analysis: This report changes nothing.
98% of core CPI increase came from services
69% of that came from shelter
Shelter starts biting hard this spring.
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MARCH CPI
Core CPI +.36% MOM
The big driver of the hotter-than-expected number is - once again - motor vehicle insurance.
Car insurance + shelter = 70% of Core Service inflation.
Goods deflation returned -.04% MOM.
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I still think we get a cut in June.
Disinflation is still on schedule over next few months.
Oil rally about done (right when all the generalists and permabulls get loud).
And, remember, oil is the main driver of market-based inflation measures (eg cpi swaps - below).
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Rystad predicting $230 oil next year in escalation scenario.
The key point for investors to grasp: Oil's potential return distribution next year is not normal.
Once you grasp the real-world implications of a bi-modal distribution, you understand why energy must be an overweight
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Assuming October was THE low:
On an equal-weighted basis, the S&P 500 is up only 14%...would be the weakest recovery on record.
@3F_Research
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Forget recession vs soft landing, the big question facing oil markets in 2024 is when/how the Saudi oil comes back onto the market.
There will be rallies, but this chart is not bullish...
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March CPI
The good news: CPI decelerated to 5% (YOY).
The bad news: A 32% oil decline (YOY) could only pull inflation down to 5%.
This is the first month EVER where oil was down more than 15% and CPI was still at or above 5%.
@3F_Research
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Unpopular opinion: Jerome Powell has actually been a very good Fed President under quite difficult circumstances.
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A U.S. recession has never started with the deficit this high.
This point gets lost on a lot of Recession Bros who keep waiting for claims to explode to 350k+ and unemployment to rip in some disinflationary morass:
1/3
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No oil hot take from me this weekend. When I have nothing to add, I'd prefer to stay quiet.
From my years of experience, I can say that "geopolitical experts" are among the worst oil price predictors/traders I have observed.
Take their intel w/ a huge grain of salt.
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MARCH JOBS
+300k sounds hot, BUT more than 50% government + education/health.
This continues the trend of government jobs growing much faster than private sector.
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CRUDE OIL
Here's oil's typical path once both the Technicals and Positioning components of the
@3F_Research
model flip to a buy.
Points to mid-to-upper $80s by end of Q1...
CRUDE OIL
Both the Technical & Positioning components of our model flipped to a BUY last week.
This combination is rare (22% of time since 2007) and produces a high win rate (66% positive trades).
Excerpt of what we wrote to clients last week below.
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CRUDE OIL
Managed Money short percentage at the highest level since the initial COVID lockdowns.
Headline risk (Red Sea) + specs HEAVY on the other side + Fed pivot = Nice long set up.
@3F_Research
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One error many have made this cycle is to believe the Fed worries about an equity rally.
History shows that they do not.
7 out of 8 initial Fed rate cuts came with the stock market within 12% of ATHs.
This includes a first cut in 1995 w/ the S&P making new ATHs
@3F_Research
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Bullish (for now) refunding announcement.
Why? Rates driving everything and coupon supply is coming in light(er).
The Treasury is signaling that it cannot maintain its typical bill/coupon mix in the face of massive deficits + QT.
Below are a few key excerpts from TBAC report
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OIL
The biggest misread in oil markets this year has been to associate every selloff w/ a recession/demand.
It is almost 100% positioning + supply driving price.
There are signs of econ deceleration, but the fall in oil price is not one of them.
"Really what we've been playing this entire year in the crude oil market is fading the speculators in the futures market," says Warren Pies of
@3F_Research
#oil
@MorganLBrennan
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Unprecedented divergence between oil and Energy stocks.
Over the past 100 trading sessions, the Energy Sector has surged, while oil has collapsed.
Historically, the slow drip from equities will continue for a bit, but the larger divergence is resolved through an oil rally.
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Is this a buyable dip?
The S&P 500's peak-to-trough decline has reached 5% (4588 to 4330).
Going back to 1950, there have been 125 previous 5% pullbacks.
60% of the time, the market has moved on to new highs before going into a 10% drawdown.
@3F_Research
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When stock-bond correlation goes from negative to positive, overall portfolio vol goes up.
Thus, vol targetters will also need to increase their bond weight (and decrease equity weight).
Add in higher bond ylds, and you have a recipe for equity outflows.
Good find Florian
"BLACKROCK SEES 'SIGNIFICANT INTEREST' AMONG PENSION FUNDS TO CUT EQUITY EXPOSURE, LOCK IN YIELDS"
There is always enough demand for Treasuries. You just need to sell equities for it
When do you sell equities? When you think growth slows down (1/2)
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What is going on with bonds?
There are five big buyers for Treasurys:
-Fed,
-Foreigners,
-Banks,
-Pensions, &
-"Households" (inc HFs).
When the first 3 step away from the mkt, the last two require higher yields to fill the gap.
Excerpt from the July
@3F_Research
report
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Housing starts on FIRE...Unbelievable responsiveness from this market.
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Beginning in March, momentum funds will enter into - what we believe - will be the highest turnover period ever.
Financials + Energy will be bought.
Tech + Healthcare will be sold.
In this report, we map out the reasoning, winners, losers, and implications.
@3F_Research
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UPDATE: Hedge funds continue to boost crude oil shorts.
Managed Money short positioning in oil futures now at 24%.
Soon, this will create a powerful buy signal...patience.
Hedge funds and CTAs now liquidating oil longs and adding shorts.
Total Managed Money short positioning in oil futures has shot up from 11% to 21%.
We have to wait for this to play out, but, if you are waiting to get long, this is what you want to see.
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Market structure weakening
At present, there is a strange mix of momentum and market cap factors outperforming.
Instability increases when momentum and mkt cap become factor leaders.
Only other dates where both factors returned +20% LTM: 1998, 2000, 2007, 2020
@3F_Research
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CRUDE OIL
I see generalists getting bulled up...
Managed futures strategies piling in (below).
Sorry to report the move is much closer to the end than the beginning...call it the 8th inning.
Don't kill the messenger.
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What's the path to Fed cuts in 2024?
1/
Within the Fed, a shift has occurred from nominal policy (i.e. 2% target) to real policy (FFR minus inflation)
The scatter below visualizes real policy. Historically, the Fed eases once FFR > Core CPI by~2.5%
@3F_Research
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Everywhere I look, I see politically-driven inflation takes...From the left and right.
IMO staying away from normative/political inflation analysis is going to be an analytical edge in the years ahead.
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OIL
Gasoline crack spreads back to the lowest levels since lockdowns.
Again, this is what we would expect in a supply-driven bull market.
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BIG liquidity drain for tax payments ongoing.
Be careful attributing macro narratives to an April pullback.
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Today's price action is another reminder that Energy is one of the better diversifiers in the post-pandemic world.
Only sector that has tended to move with yields.
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Residential construction payrolls made a new high in December (936k) and have increased by ~14k since the July low.
This is not a recessionary pattern...
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Heading into this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed has a tough decision.
A few charts framing the dilemma:
Recessions begin when residential construction payrolls decline 8-10% from the previous cycle peak.
At present, construction payrolls are at cycle highs.
@3F_Research
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OIL:
Dated Brent hit ~$97/bbl last week.
Hedge funds/CTA short positioning has fallen to multi-year lows.
Everyone is bullish. Quick reminder of how price changes sentiment (especially at the big banks).
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For a lot of people, the recent oil selloff has "felt" strange.
The data backs this feeling up.
Never before have we seen the curve so backwardated during such an intense selloff (purple dots = oil since 3/22).
This is the phenomenon we observed during Delta/Omicron on roids.
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Is everyone bullish? Not Wall Street Strategists.
The avg S&P 500 2024 strategist price target = 4,833...this implies a <1% return from current levels.
For context, strategists keep their targets about 6% above the index price over time (managing career risk).
@3F_Research
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From 1998 through 2021, Treasurys RALLIED on 87 of the worst 100 days for the stock market.
Pre-1998, bonds rallied on only 35 of the stock market's 100 worst days.
We are back in a pre-98 regime...
@3F_Research
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CRUDE OIL
Both the Technical & Positioning components of our model flipped to a BUY last week.
This combination is rare (22% of time since 2007) and produces a high win rate (66% positive trades).
Excerpt of what we wrote to clients last week below.
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@TheStalwart
Incomes have way undershot rolling three-year changes in shelter + cars.
For most Americans, these two items represent the core of the "American Dream."
Over the past three years, these items are out of reach for a larger % of the country vs three years ago.
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Imo, this remains the single most important chart to understand the current macro backdrop.
Bond pessimism vs Equity optimism.
Stocks and bonds are pricing different futures.
S&P 500 EPS - Expected to grow by ~10% pa through 2025.
2yr Yields (vs 1yr) - Implying the most dramatic Fed cut cycle ever.
Incongruent
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CRUDE OIL - UPDATE
Singapore gasoil cracks surge above the March highs.
More encouraging news for the bulls.
CRUDE OIL
Singapore gasoil crack spreads explode higher...now back above $20/bbl.
Physical market is (slowly) improving.
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Pro-cyclical deficit spending is changing the Fed's calculus.
In combination, the two main channels of money creation (deficit spending + bank lending) are rising more than 10% yoy.
The Fed can slow bank lending, but it has no control over fiscal policy.
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OIL
It's rare to see CTAs/HFs get this short when the curve is backwardated.
Reminder: Shorts suffer negative roll-yld during periods of backwardation.
CTA shorts = fuel for a bull run
@3F_Research
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Stocks and bonds are discounting different futures.
The spread between the 1Yr yield and the 1yx1y yield is at a historic extreme (~1.6% - chart)
This means that bond investors buying the 2yr at today's rates expect a COLLAPSE in 1yr yields from +5% to <3.5% in the next year
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A market transition is taking place.
From 2H 2023, rates drove the stock market - lower in Q3 then higher in Q4.
In 2024, though, stocks have broken away from the pull of interest rates.
A few charts from last week's report.
Stock bulls have to be encouraged by how the markets have handled the rise in rates so far this year.
Chart from
@3F_Research
chart book.
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I'm surprised by crude's strength in the face of China data + equity selloff...impressive.
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Payrolls tomorrow.
Revisions may be as important as the headline number.
Negative revisions are starting to pile up. This is a classic late-cycle phenomenon.
@3F_Research
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Dramatic improvement in breadth.
% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day goes from 38% to 53% in four trading sessions.
Following Mega-Cap Divergences, breadth is key to the market's next move.
Friday night red meat for the bears.
We are in the midst of the 4th most extreme Mega-Cap Divergence ever.
How these divergences resolve depends on breadth going forward.
Until today, breadth had tracked right in line with negative resolutions.
@3F_Research
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Should we expect to see credit spreads lead equities or the economy? Not historically.
There's a common misconception that credit spreads lead equities.
In fact, spreads typically lag stocks and really blowout when equity pullbacks devolve into more serious selloffs.
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OIL:
Let the correction play out further.
Seasonally, November is an awful time (coming off the back of Mexico's "Hacienda Hedge").
Under the surface, positive things are starting to build.
OIL:
Dated Brent hit ~$97/bbl last week.
Hedge funds/CTA short positioning has fallen to multi-year lows.
Everyone is bullish. Quick reminder of how price changes sentiment (especially at the big banks).
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The Fed paused in June of 2006.
During the 15-month pause, the S&P 500 gained 20%.
This is not a tweet comparing the current market to 2008...just a reminder that cycles take time to play out.
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I think far too many are attempting to apply an early-cycle playbook to a late-cycle market.
Russell 2k value index? Sold to you.
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5,200 by May felt like a crazy target...
Instead we hit 5,200 in March.
Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut.
Would put the market at 5,200 by May...
First time speaking w/ the great
@ScottWapnerCNBC
was a blast!
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Shocking report.
Housing is key to recession timing.
We have forecasted a Q1 24 recession start, but that assumed:
-Single fam housing starts fall from ~70k per month to 60k (jumped to 80k in May),
-MF starts fall to 40k from 45k (50k in May).
@3F_Research
US HOUSING STARTS CHANGE MOM ACTUAL 21.7% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 2.2%) $MACRO
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Forget tomorrow, the most important thing investors can do is zoom out and understand the "cadence" of a Fed cycle.
Hikes = Econ + EPS ripping, stocks mixed, bonds down
Pause = Hope springs...everyone hoping for soft land
Cuts = Recession underway, stocks/EPS down...bonds up
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Does Q2 2024 = Q2 2012?
-Both were preceded by two straight quarters of +10% S&P gains (2 of only 3 historically).
-Presidential election years w/ incumbent on ballot.
In general, I'm not big on analogs, but this one has my attention.
@3F_Research
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CRUDE OIL
$72 (Brent) has been consistent support this year...logical place to look for a bottom.
BUT, I do not expect a "v-shaped" move like we saw in March w/ first OPEC announcement...more likely we test and retest like the summer lows.
Patience is key for oil here imo.
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CPI
Quick analysis: Everything still hinges on shelter inflation.
101% of YOY CPI increase came from Core Services.
66% of this came from Shelter.
16% came from Car Insurance.
5% cam from "Recreation Services."
CPI
Quick analysis: This report changes nothing.
98% of core CPI increase came from services
69% of that came from shelter
Shelter starts biting hard this spring.
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Gold now +$2,200
Too many people are convinced that gold cannot rally without a real rate tailwind.
Historically, when gold rises by 20% in a six-month period, 10-year TIPS fall by 25 bps on average.
And, there are many cases where real rates rise while gold rips.
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What is the real world impact of $60 crack spreads (at ~$120 crude oil)?
Petro costs to economy are actually much higher than most demand destruction models had assumed.
At current prices, 7% vs 5% of GDP (refined product cost vs oil).
Remember consumers use products not crude
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Nothing pointing to an imminent recession in today's jobs report, but the housing industry lost 5,500 residential construction jobs.
This is the worst monthly jobs loss post-COVID.
At that pace, we should be on recession watch next summer (8% drawdown).
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CRUDE OIL
Singapore gasoil crack spreads explode higher...now back above $20/bbl.
Physical market is (slowly) improving.
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S&P 500 now down 10%…Remember how the odds shift ⬇️
Once a 5% pullback hits 10%, the odds flip.
60% of 10% corrections move on to +15% drawdowns.
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The market is priced for a soft landing.
Powell talking soft landing.
This week
@NickTimiraos
wrote a nice summary of soft landing obstacles.
Maybe the Fed manages to pull it off, but here are a few things that argue a hard landing is more likely.
Via
@3F_Research
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222k of the new jobs created in December were second jobs.
Since April, ~50% (900k) of new jobs have been second jobs.
4/
What has pushed the UE rate up? Multiple job holders have surged by 700k...
So, many of the new jobs are second jobs...just fyi.
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OIL
Behaving exactly as we should expect.
Once hedge funds/CTAs pile in, gains stall (then reverse).
Chart shows oil's path once MM short positioning gets extremely low (where we were a couple of weeks ago).
@3F_Research
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After many head fakes, this gold breakout looks like the real deal.
Reiterating our call for $2,500 this year.
Gold making new ATHs and breaking free from the macro headwinds of higher rates + Dollar strength.
This is to the pattern we observed in equities earlier this year.
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OIL:
Due to stretched positioning and weakening inventory reports, the
@3F_Research
Crude Oil Model flipped from a long-standing bullish signal to neutral back in late-June.
However, I believe a bottom is close (or in). Let's review the evidence.
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The Fed is likely to end QT before its balance sheet hits 25% of GDP...larger than it was at the PEAK of QE 3.
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CRUDE OIL
OPEC extends production cuts through Q2.
Headline + hopes of full-year extension will finish squeezing the remaining excess HF/CTA shorts out of the market and drive oil to our Q1 target (see below tweet).
CRUDE OIL
Here's oil's typical path once both the Technicals and Positioning components of the
@3F_Research
model flip to a buy.
Points to mid-to-upper $80s by end of Q1...
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People quickly coming to grips with the possibility that yellen could single handily stop QT early just by issuing more bills
Linking the pace of QT with RRP balances is a bad idea because you essentially outsource your QT timeline to Treasury.
The end result would be zero RRP, very high reserve levels and a huge Fed balance sheet.
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With Q1 behind us, have you changed your mind on anything that you believed coming into the year?
My answer:
I was quite confident in rapid disinflation through H1 23 (decent chance of sub-3% inflation by mid-year w/o a recession).
I no longer see that as possible.
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10-Year Yields vs S&P 500 Breadth (% of stocks above their 200-day inverted)
Under the surface, rising rates have hollowed out market breadth.
No Q4 rally w/o improving breadth.
No broadening w/o rates chilling out.
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US Deficit = 8.5% (% of GDP)
Unemployment rate = 3.6%
Prior to COVID, the US had never* run a deficit that was >5% of GDP when UE was <4%.
Implications:
+Nom GDP
+Inflation
-LT Treasuries
*Outside of WWs
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In the four years ending Dec 2023:
-Cumulative deficit spending = $9.1 trillion
-Cumulative additional GDP created = $9.4 trillion
Bottom Line: Post-2019, deficit spending has been the dominant factor driving the economy. This is not an efficient way to grow.
YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT 'WHERE WE'RE GOING' WITH US DEFICIT
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The China reopening appears to be real this time.
China flights RAMPING...now higher than at any point in 2022.
Data provided by
@fernavid
@3F_Research
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Random thought I keep coming back to:
Over the past decade, S&P margins have expanded by ~400 basis points.
Nearly 100% of this is from the Tech and Comm Services sectors.
@3F_Research
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Not sustainable.
Also, a key reason for why those expecting commodities to drive another wave of inflation this year are likely to be disappointed.
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Last week, market rallied off AHE revisions (ignored six-point drop in ISM Services).
Next week, CPI will come in cool and market is likely to rally again.
At this point, disinflation is a given.
The key day - which is coming - will be a selloff on disinflationary news.
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FEBRUARY CPI
Two quick takeaways.
First, OER reverted back to CPI rent, which is a major positive for inflation data going into spring.
Second, for the first time in nine months, core goods prices increased on a monthly basis.
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When will the recession start?
Here is what
@3F_Research
wrote in March:
"In the final analysis, residential construction employment will signal the recession's start. And, houses under construction - not starts, permits, or sentiment - will dictate employment."
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Most recent CoreLogic single-family new rent estimates came in HOT.
This is a big deal (IYKYK)
Not good for shelter disinflation (or disinflation in general).
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