Charlie Bilello
@charliebilello
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Chief Market Strategist @ Creative Planning Investor | Writer | Reader | Thinker Trying to become a little wiser every day.
Joined May 2013
The Ultimate Financial Checklist for Peace of Mind New Signal or Noise w/ @PeterMallouk
https://t.co/5yWXCzmxME
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Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the U.S.?’ End of 2025: South Korea +82%, Peru +78%, Greece +76% … S&P 500 +17%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify.
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Global Central Bank rate actions in 2025... Turkey: -950 bps (47.5% -> 38%) Russia: -450 bps (21% -> 16.5%) Argentina: -300 bps (32% -> 29%) Mexico: -300 bps (10% -> 7%) New Zealand: -200 bps (4.25% -> 2.25%) Poland: -175 bps (5.75% -> 4%) India: -125 bps (6.50% -> 5.25%) South
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Global Central Bank Update: -The Bank of Japan hiked rates for the 4th time in the cycle with a 25 bps increase to 0.75%. This is their highest policy rate in 30 years. -Mexico cut rates for the 13th consecutive time, 25 bps move down to 7.00%. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ
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X is forcing the "for you" tab on us, repeatedly switching it back to the default option when you open the app. That means you're likely missing content you actually want to see. Join my free weekly letter where I recap everything posted on X and more: https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ
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Global Central Bank rate actions in 2025... Turkey: -950 bps (47.5% -> 38%) Russia: -450 bps (21% -> 16.5%) Argentina: -300 bps (32% -> 29%) Mexico: -300 bps (10% -> 7%) New Zealand: -200 bps (4.25% -> 2.25%) Poland: -175 bps (5.75% -> 4%) India: -125 bps (6.50% -> 5.25%) South
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X is forcing the "for you" tab on us, repeatedly switching it back to the default option when you open the app. That means you're likely missing content you actually want to see. Join my free weekly letter where I recap everything posted on X and more: https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ
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Global Central Bank Update: -The Bank of Japan hiked rates for the 4th time in the cycle with a 25 bps increase to 0.75%. This is their highest policy rate in 30 years. -Mexico cut rates for the 13th consecutive time, 25 bps move down to 7.00%. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ
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Shelter CPI has now moved down from a peak of 8.2% in March 2023 (highest since 1982) to 3.0% today (lowest since August 2021). Given its long lag vs. real-time rental data (-1.1% YoY), a continued move lower is expected.
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Price Increases over last 5 years... CPI Used Cars: +20.4% CPI New Cars: +20.6% CPI Food at home: +25.2% Family Health Insurance: +26.5% CPI Shelter: +28.0% CPI Food away from home: +29.8% CPI Electricity: +38.3% CPI Gas Utilities: +41.3% CPI Transportation: +42.4% CPI Coffee:
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Global Central Bank Update: -The Bank of England cut rates for the 6th time in the cycle, 25 bps move down to 3.75%. https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih
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Price changes over last year (November CPI report) Fuel Oil: +11.3% Gas Utilities: +9.1% Electricity: +6.9% Food away from home: +3.7% Used Cars: +3.6% Medical Care: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.7% Food at home: +1.9% Transportation: +1.7% Gasoline: +0.9% New Cars: +0.6%
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The S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, the 29th down day in 2025 w/ a loss >1%. This is not at all unusual. In fact, the average year has had 29 large declines. Downside volatility is the price of admission for investors. Embrace this risk - for without it, there would be no reward.
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The Ultimate Financial Checklist for Peace of Mind New Signal or Noise w/ @PeterMallouk
https://t.co/5yWXCzmxME
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Every decade has a reason not to invest. Wars. Crashes. Inflation. Pandemics. But from 1930–2025, the S&P 500 compounded at 10% annually. Lesson: there’s always something, yet the market finds a way.
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The decline in Shelter CPI from 3.6% YoY in Sep to 3.0% YoY in Nov was the main factor in bringing down overall CPI as Shelter represents over 1/3 of the index. But the question is whether this is a true reading or a downward bias due to the shutdown with the BLS filling in 0%
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Price Increases over last 5 years... CPI Used Cars: +20.4% CPI New Cars: +20.6% CPI Food at home: +25.2% Family Health Insurance: +26.5% CPI Shelter: +28.0% CPI Food away from home: +29.8% CPI Electricity: +38.3% CPI Gas Utilities: +41.3% CPI Transportation: +42.4% CPI Coffee:
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Shelter CPI has now moved down from a peak of 8.2% in March 2023 (highest since 1982) to 3.0% today (lowest since August 2021). Given its long lag vs. real-time rental data (-1.1% YoY), a continued move lower is expected.
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Global Central Bank Update: -The Bank of England cut rates for the 6th time in the cycle, 25 bps move down to 3.75%. https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih
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