Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
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Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg. Co-author of the 'The World for Sale' Any views expressed are my own. jblas3 @bloomberg .net
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Joined August 2013
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This week, The World for Sale comes out in paperback
It explains how oil and commodity markets work, how they influence geopolitics, and the extraordinary power of a few traders you've probably never heard of
Please take a look
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BREAKING: And wow!!! After BP, the deluge. Shell announces it's exiting all its joint-ventures with Gazprom, including its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG facility. Shell carries those JV at $3 billion valuation on its books, and it's warning of impartments
#Ukraine
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NORTH vs SOUTH 2.0:
Spain, Greece and Portugal reject the EU call for 15% cuts in natural gas consumption to help Germany
Spanish Energy Minister (clearly aiming at Berlin): "Contrary to other countries, Spain hasn't been living beyond its means in energy terms"
#EnergyCrisis
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‘Yes Minister’ has a perfect summary of most Western countries response to the coronavirus outbreak 😷
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Norway is raising the lever of security readiness at all its oil and gas installations, including the continental self. The explosions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines (and sighting of drones in the Nord Sea) are prompting Europe to take very seriously the risk of sabotage.
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Germany is burning a lot of coal (~45% of all electricity generation) as wind stops blowing.
It’s electricity carbon intensity jumped to a crazy 745 grams (CO2 gr per KWh) this evening — higher than in South Africa and India
Closing nuclear matters |
#Energiewende
h/t
@ckazok
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The waiting line for Trump’s speech in
#Davos
(still nearly one hour to go). Has the feeling of teenagers queuing for a concert, but this are billionaires and CEOs
#tictocnews
@tictoc
#Davos2018
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With BP and Shell leaving the country, I don't see how others can stay: the pressure on Exxon, Total and oil traders like Trafigura and Vitol (and Glencore in metals) is going to increase massively.
#Ukraine
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The Italianization of UK politics continues.
If only we could get their weather -- and their food.
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How strong is a Nord Stream pipe? Quite!
The steel pipe itself has a wall of 4.1 centimeters (1.6 inches), and it's coated with another 6-11 cm of steel-reinforced concrete. Each section of the pipe weighs 11 tonnes, which goes to 24-25 tonnes after the concrete is applied.
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I’m worrying any day the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is going to fall from a window.
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Over the last 40 hours, the UK wind power industry has swung from producing 16.4 GW to generating 0.4 GW
The drop in electricity production is equal to, give or take, switching off 14 nuclear power stations. That's the reason why UK power markets are tight today.
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And this is confirmed:
European utilities are set to buy tomorrow more Russian natural gas (from Gazprom) via Ukraine pipelines.
Yes, you read that right: Europe will be buying more natural gas. From Russia. Via Ukraine. Tomorrow.
I'm hope to be proven badly wrong on this:
I believe Europe will buy more (no less) Russian natural gas in the next few days. Yes, that's right: more. That's capitalism in times of war. The reason is linked with how Gazprom import contract pricing is structured.
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MAP OF THE DAY: Day-ahead electricity prices in Europe are eye-watering, with lots of countries setting record highs for today. Notable to see the Nordics close to €400 per MWh, and Germany at €600. Before 2020, anything above €75-100 was considered expensive|
#EnergyCrisis
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What are the chances that **simultaneously** the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines suffer from **three different and separate** leaks?
As Ian Fleming wrote: "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action"
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We're seeing the **strongest** flows of Russian gas into the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine started, with Mallnow registering 3 consecutive days of non-stop flows, plus steady high inflows at Velke and NS1. At current prices, that's quite a bounty for the Kremlin
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NO BUYERS: Surgutneftegas, the Russian oil producer, ***fails for the 3rd consecutive time*** to sell Urals crude via its regular tender. I can not recall ever a situation like this: there are not buyers for Russia oil, even at record discounts |
#OOTT
#Ukraine
#SelfSanctions
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Closing nuclear power plants while keeping coal-fired plants open is just crazy. Plain insanity.
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Lies, damned lies, and statistics. I have updated this
@opinion
chart with fresh data.
China imported a record of ~1 million b/d of Malaysian crude in Sept. That's nearly **double** the real output of Malaysia.
The reality? Re-branding of Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil.
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MAP OF THE DAY: Sometimes, a picture is worth a thousand words.
Container ships heading toward Europe and/or North America, with almost all avoiding the Red Sea (red).
More than two weeks after the launch of US-led 'Prosperity Guardian', the Houthis still rule in the Red Sea.
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My friends and I have agreed to impose a price cap on our local pub's beer. Mind we actually do not plan to drink any beer there. The pub's owner says he won't sell beer to anyone observing the cap, so other patrons, who drink a lot there, say they aren't joining the cap. Success
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A senior official in Philippines will resign after posting in Facebook a chart that questioned the government's decision to impose a price cap on rice.
Cielo Magno was the country's Finance undersecretary.
Did anyone inside European gov published anything similar last year?
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BREAKING: Germany 1-year forward baseload electricity surges >€400 per MWh for the first time ever.
We are truly into crunching territory for the country's energy-intensive manufacturing industry.
The current price is ~1,000% higher than the €41.1 per MWh 2010-2020 average.
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Since the G7 oil price cap was announced on Friday, Russia has retaliated cutting gas supply to Germany to zero, and joining forces with Saudi Arabia and others at OPEC+ to reduce global oil production.
I'm going to go to the pub to drink some beer now.
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The size of the Nord Stream pipeline gas leak is huge.
According to the Danish armed forces, it measures about 1 kilometer in diameter. The smaller circle in the center is approximately 200 meters wide
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Don't look up.
Because if you do, the European electricity market may scare the hell out of you. French base and peak load prices for Cal23 and, particularly, for the Nov-to-Feb period, are reaching stratospheric levels.
This morning, France 1-year baseload €602 per MWh
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*** GERMANY'S HABECK: NUCLEAR POWER EXTENSION BECOMING MORE LIKELY ***
(With apologies to Winston Churchill: 'Germany can always be relied upon to do the right thing -- after exhausting all the alternatives')
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OIL MARKET: Washington eases its oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing Chevron (for the next 6 months) to pump crude in the Latin American nation and export it into the United States. A major shift in the White House policy |
#OOTT
#Venezuela
$CVX 🇻🇪 ⛽️ 🇺🇸
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EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Wow, wow, wow... I'm running out of words to describe the European short-term electricity market. Multiple records breached for Monday. With the exception of Poland and Scandinavia, all Europe is above €300 per MWh (France and Switzerland near €400)
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In what’s one of the most baffling energy policy decisions of 2022, Germany sticks to closing its 3 remaining nuclear power stations in December.
BUT then it U-turns itself, keeping 2 of them in reserve until April 2023 for emergencies. But are we not already in an emergency?
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While European capitals (and Washington) weigh how to respond to Putin, together EU-UK-US will buy over the next 24 hours ~3.5 million barrels of Russian oil and refined products, worth >$330 million at current prices. Add to that the gas, the aluminum, the nickel, etc…
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BREAKING: UK wholesale day-ahead electricity prices surge to a **record high** as cold, dry and calm weather cripples wind production and sends demand soaring.
On the EPEX platform, UK baseload for Monday clears at £674 per MWh, while evening peakload clears >£2,000 per MWh
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German TV interview with climate activist
@GretaThunberg
Are the nuclear power plants the better choice for the time being now?
"If we have them already running, I feel that it's a mistake to close them down in order to focus on coal.”
#EnergyCrisis
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With Nord Stream 1 flowing at just 20% of capacity from July 27, Germany will NOT have enough natural gas to make it throughout the whole winter **unless big demand reductions are implemented**. Berlin will need to activate stage 3 of its gas emergency program
#ONGT
#EnergyCrisis
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BREAKING: Gazprom claims it detected an oil leak during "maintenance" at Nord Stream 1, and therefore the gas pipeline is going to remain closed until repairs are made (no timeline provided for any re-start) |
#EnergyCrisis
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Gazprom has released a photo of the alleged “oil leak” that’s going to keep the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline closed for now.
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EUROPEAN ENERGY CRUNCH: French President Emmanuel Macron announces that “we will for the first time in decades relaunch the construction of nuclear reactors in our country” ☢️ 🇫🇷 🔌
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The size of the UK energy bail-out is off-the charts. According to
@alexwickham
, on top of the £130 billion to freeze household energy bills, Liz Truss is mulling another £40 billion for small business.
The ~£170 billion equals to the annual NHS budget, and it's >5% of GDP
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BREAKING: Germany is now mulling the nationalisation of THREE of the country’s largest natural gas companies — Uniper, VNG and Securing Energy for Europe (the former Gazprom Germanía) — to avoid a collapse of its domestic energy market |
#EnergyCrisis
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MUST READ: The speech by EU top diplomat
@JosepBorrellF
yesterday about the challenges ahead, saying it as it is (or was): "Our prosperity has been based on cheap energy coming from Russia."
Full speech:
#EnergyCrisis
#OOTT
#EnergyTwitter
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I have written only one story about fusion energy. For my university's newspaper 25 years ago. Thankfully, it isn't online.
Since then, I'm skeptical of surprisingly well-timed announcements by budget-starved laboratories about breakthroughs for technologies decades away |🧵1/10
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I thought Western sanctions on Russia were meant to act as a *deterrent*. And not just long-term punishment. Anyone seeing any sense of deterrence? Today:
Ruble is up against the dollar
Russian stock market is up 15%
Europe is buying more Russian gas
And Putin is bombing Kyiv
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Qatar Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi absolutely destroying European clean energy policies, blaming them for a big proportion of the high energy prices the world is paying today. "They don't have a plan".
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The German energy crisis has reached the point where Deutsche Bank starts to 'model' (let's call it that) the potential for **gas-to-wood** substitution for heating German households this winter |
#NothingToSeeHere
#ONGT
#GasCrisis
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Two years ago, Austria became the only 2nd country in Europe to completely eliminate coal from its electricity grid.
On Sunday evening, the government ordered a state-owned power company to prepare a mothballed coal power station for operation again.
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COLUMN: London only avoided a blackout last week by paying a record high £9,724.54 per MWh (more than 5,000% higher than the typical price) to briefly import electricity from Belgium due to traffic jams on the power grid |
#EnergyCrisis
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With Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan, it's fair to assume that the chances of China ever joining the US-G7's Russia oil price cap initiative have gone considerably lower.
And without China, you don't have India. And without either, well, you don't have any emerging nation |
#OOTT
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BREAKING: Exxon withdraws from Russia. “We are beginning the process to discontinue operations and developing steps to exit the Sakhalin-1 venture,” it says (unclear what “discontinue” means, but Exxon operates the LNG facility, so it’s a big deal)
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Germany is right now shutting down the Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland nuclear power stations, the last three remaining in operation.
From tonight, it will solely rely on renewables — and lots of coal and gas (plus nuclear imports from France). Energiewende stupidity.
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This is the time of the year when Shell publishes its annual tax contribution report (this time, the 2021 edition) -- showing how **35** employees (yes, thirty five) make every year $500-plus million in tax-free profits in the Bahamas, via a little-known oil trading outfit.
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🍫🍫🍫THE CHOCOLATE CRISIS — an UPDATED thread🆕🆕🆕:
Retail chocolate prices are rising (and will increase much further, while shrinkflation will reduce sizes) after wholesale cocoa prices surged to an unthinkable all-time high of ***$10,000 a ton*** on Tuesday.
1/15
@Opinion
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CHART OF THE DAY: Steel prices in Europe have surged to a fresh all-time high, with bechmark hot rolled coil trading above €1,400 per tonne. Alongside the surge in fertiliser prices, this is another corner of the commodity market few are paying enough attention, but will bite
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I have never seen a large economy like Europe (UK+EU) sleep walking into an energy crunch (maybe let's call it a crisis since major industrial companies are having to shut down) and no a single politician appears to give a damn about it. Incredible.
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EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: It’s the kind of morning many feared: cold and windless. Germany is relying on coal for ~45% of its electricity generation (with gas doing an other ~15%). In the UK, gas is doing ~60%, and coal an extra bit. In the Netherlands, gas and coal are doing ~70%
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After Norwegian company warned of sighting of drones near its offshore oil and gas fields in the North Sea last week, now Total of France is warning about the same.
The later reported a drone near its Halfdan B platform, >200 km offshore. No chance that's a civilian drone!
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Anyone in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin governments looking at the European electricity market?
Hello, hello, hello? Anyone there...?
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German Economy Minister Robert Habeck comes remarkably close to accusing the US of war-profiteering with LNG exports |
#EnergyCrisis
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I don't believe in conspiracy theories, but if I did, here's one:
Saudi Arabia is pushing oil toward $100, in the process inflating US long-term interest rates. Maybe it's shooting itself in the foot -- but higher yields are also killing the whole renewable energy sector.
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BREAKING: UK government freezes gas and electricity bills for the average household at £2,500 at year for the next 2 years |
#EnergyCrisis
#EnergyTwitter
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UPDATE 2: Perhaps the biggest value of tonight's SWIFT announcement is that's likely to prompt even larger self-sanctioning by Western banks, refusing to deal with anything Russia, whether govs have targeted or not. We have already seen signs of that. Oil at bigger risk than gas
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CHART OF THE DAY: The spike in European gas prices has pushed short-term electricity prices (paid most by businesses rather than households) throughout the roof. Spain is an example. I have covered this market since I was a trainee reporter in 1997. I can not believe the chart
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US **total** crude oil inventories (both commercial and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to a 36-year low, dropping below the previous bottom set in 2001 |
#OOTT
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Chevron CEO responds to President Biden:
“Addressing this situation requires thoughtful action and a willingness to work together, not political rhetoric […] Your Administration has largely sought to criticize, and at times vilify, our industry”
#OOTT
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With the war in Ukraine raging, the trading unit of Shell can't resist cheap oil, buying Urals crude at the record discount of minus $28.5-a-barrel to Brent.
This... um... gives a new meaning to Rothschild's famous saying: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
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I’m trying to understand the sanctions on Russia. If it got it right, Moscow still can a) serve its foreign debt and avoid a default b) sell its oil and gas, c) receive the equivalent of ~$1 billion a day from the sale of its natural resources. Do it have that right?
#Ukraine
️
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FULL STATEMENT: The White House urges OPEC+ to pump more oil (above and beyond the current 400,000 b/d monthly hikes the cartel is already implementing) |
#OOTT
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French nuclear reactors pushing above 40 GW for the first time in a really long time — each extra GW is really welcomed today and tomorrow as they are needed. This is the electricity version of ‘allez les blues’ 🇫🇷 ⚡️
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UPDATED: European natural gas prices zoom to a fresh all-time high, rising >75% today. Benchmark TTF is trading above €345 per MWh.
** That's equal to more than $100 per million Btu, or more than to $600 a barrel of oil equivalent ** (I promise you there are not typos there).
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** EU ELECTRICITY MARKET NO LONGER FUNCTIONING, VON DER LEYEN SAYS **
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Only in
#Davos
you get a sign with “private car pick-up” direction alongside the “A day in the life of a refugee” exhibition.
#Davos2018
#tonedeaf
@tictoc
#tictocnews
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One takeaway from the
@RTE_France
's winter electricity outlook published today: France is counting on importing electricity through Oct-Feb from European neighbors, including the UK.
But the UK power grid is also counting on importing electricity from France this winter.
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If I was the British government, I would be rather worried about this chart; very, very worried. UK natural gas has now breached the equivalent to $40 per million Btu barrier (~300 pence per therm). In oil terms, it's now trading above $230 per barrel of oil equivalent.
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FULL STATEMENT from Germany’s Economic Minister Robert Habeck on the country’s gas crisis. Absolutely must read.
“In order to reduce gas consumption, less gas is to be used to produce electricity. Instead, coal-fired power plants will have to be used more”
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How much is going to cost the German energy crisis to the tax-payer of [wait for it] Finland?
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Russian President Vladimir Putin says G7 oil price cap "would be an absolutely stupid decision"
"We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests, in this case economic [interests]," he said. "No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing."
#EnergyCrisis
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🚨BREAKING 🚨Saudi Arabia is launching the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war: plan for a big production hike, and offering huge discount for its crude |
#OOTT
#OPEC
#SaudiArabia
with
@A_DiPaola17
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The current half-hearted talks on Russia energy ban is a win for the Kremlin. It is still exporting, **and benefiting from much higher prices**.
Either put the ban in place, now, and stop the money flow. Or backtrack, and let prices drop. But the half-way only benefits Putin
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At a rally on Sunday, someone in the crowd holding a sign that read “5 more years of drilling is a lose lose!” shouted a question to US President Biden. He responded “no more [oil] drilling”.
A week earlier, Biden asked Big Oil to increase oil production.
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And 52 days after US President Joe Biden went to Saudi Arabia, the kingdom has led OPEC+ into cutting oil production: quotas reduced by 100,000 b/d, and the cartel stands ready to meet again at short notice to reduce output further if needed |
#OOTT
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Russia has openly threatened to halt gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, in comments by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on state television. "We have the full right [...] to impose an embargo," Novak said
#ONGT
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Oh the irony here.
The solar industry is complaining about high manufacturing costs in Europe in part due to, yes, you guess it right, high energy costs...
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"A big winner from the energy crisis in Europe: the U.S. economy."
"Battered by skyrocketing gas prices, companies in Europe that make steel, fertilizer and other feedstocks of economic activity are shifting operations to the U.S."
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Fresh record high prices for 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 electricity:
German 1-year forward: €725 per MWh
French 1-year forward: €870 per MWh
The 2010-2020 average was around €41 per MWh
Russian energy weapon; French nuclear crisis; low wind production. Drought-hit hydro.
#EnergyCrisis
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UPDATE 5: Now that I have time to review the rest (sorry, was busy with SWIFT and ex-energy), the sanctions on the Russian central bank are a very big deal. Details still pending, but **potentially* reduces the war chest of Putin by 2/3, thinning the cushion to weather sanctions
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The Biden administration both calling an emergency food summit in Washington for next week and at the same time boosting demand for corn-made ethanol with its E15 gasoline blend move is, well, something...
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ENERGY CRISIS: Europe in 2022, where “Wheel-of-Fortune" style TV programs offer viewers the chance to win "we’ll pay your energy bill for 4 months" as the top prize | h/t
@scottygb
for the video
#EnergyCrisis
#EnergyTwitter
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In the physical market, New York harbor jet fuel jumps to, well, a very, very, very crazy price of >$7.5 per gallon (that's ~$320 a barrel). By far, a record high. The world is short of middle distillates, particularly of diesel, and now that's spilling over into jet fuel
#OOTT
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Your daily reminder of the stark split between the European rhetoric (war crimes, strong sanctions...) vs the reality (EU imports of Russian gas **via Ukraine** have climbed this morning to a fresh post-invasion high).
The chart below is Russian gas flow at the Velke station
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German power for next year broke through the €1,000 per MWh level for the first time as the European energy crisis intensifies |
#EnergyCrisis
#energytwitter
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In the middle of the summer, when we should be saving as much natural gas as possible for winter, European nations are burning lots of gas for electricity generation.
The UK is now generating >60% of its electricity output burning gas. We will come to regret it this winter.
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