Wasteland Capital
@ecommerceshares
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Escaped the Vampire Squid, surviving in the wasteland. Investing in bottlecaps, US UK EU & global assets. Also, jokes. Liking is not endorsing. Do your own DD.
London
Joined March 2012
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Pinned Tweet
H1 21 came to a close, and the
#WastelandCapStash
portfolio is now up 179.4% since last summer’s start and 42.2% YTD. The portfolio added 7.2 percentage points in June on a YTD basis.
Open positions below. (1/3)
Milestone: I’ve reached the 1-year anniversary of the
#WastelandCapStash
portfolio! 🥳 It’s up $165.3% in USD since start a year ago. The starting $1m is now $2.65m. It’s +35.0% YTD.
You can click through these tweets to see it from the start. Open positions below (1/4)
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Nancy Pelosi’s trading is just uncanny. She literally nailed the exact NASDAQ bottom on May 24th buying those $AAPL and $MSFT calls. I mean… She’s 82yo, yet trades options better than a Citadel algo running on a dedicated $300m mainframe computer.
Bingo or Bridge, this is not.
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- Sequoia invests $213m in FTX, driving its valuation to $32bn.
- SBF cashes out, steals client funds, invests $500m in Sequoia.
What do you even call this? “Double Pyramid Scheme”? And noone’s been led away in handcuffs yet?
What a f*king Ponzi & Scam market, all of it. 🤬
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JPMorgan pumps $SNOW to 184x forward revenue using 625 sales people covering 5000+ global hedge funds. FinTwit: “This is normal”
22yo on Reddit pumps $GME to 0.9x revenue by posting a few blogs read by a few thousand small RH account holders. FinTwit: “THESE ARE CRAZY TIMES!”
🤦♂️
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Isn’t it weird that noone’s even trying to get into search, considering how much money $GOOG makes?
Why are there 85 electric vehicle startups who have raised what, $250 billion so far, but literally only one new (but now quite old) search engine, DuckDuckGo?
Just seems bizarre
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OnlyFans generated $5.6bn in gross payments, $1.1bn in revenue and a $525m profit in 2022.
The number of “creators” increased +47% to 3.2 million, and the number of “fans” +27% to 239 million (!).
The owner paid himself a $338m dividend. 🫤
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$NFLX spent $2.53 billion last year just on Marketing to acquire 8.9 million net new subscribers. That’s $284 per new sub, worldwide.
Look, if they’d just pay me $284 directly instead, I promise I will subscribe to Netflix. Who’s with me? 🙋♂️
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$META Flaming dumpster fire 🔥 miss, guide even worse. Rev DOWN 4% yet costs up 19% 😵! Users flat, but average ad price -18% y/y. 🤮 Not Inflation! Capex 2x+. Added 19k employees +28% y/y 😱. Zero cost control. Expects costs to grow from ~$85bn ‘22 up to $101bn in ‘23. 🤯
#RIP
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Fascinating data from JPMorgan: if you’ve been invested in the S&500 since 2003, you have a 9.8% annualised return. But if you missed the best 30 days during those 20 years, you’ve only had a 0.8% return! Having missed just the 10 best days takes down your return to 5.6%. 😬
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Today’s winning stocks:
$BBBY +37% on missing an interest payment.
$CVNA +32% on not yet filing Chapter 11.
$BYND +23% on negative gross profit.
$META +23% on a revenue decline.
$UPST +26% on who the f**k knows.
Did we just go back in time to February 2021?
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“Have you ever tried doing several 75bps hikes in a recession while high on 9% inflation?”
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$AMZN These earnings… what can be said? It’s over.
Massive cash outflows (-$18.6bn), massive share issuance ($10bn), massive losses, massive “new investments / costs”, yet only 7% revenue growth below inflation (-8% international, shrinking again)? AWS (+37%) losing share too.
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Morgan Stanley’s “fundamental” valuation for $SNAP went from $80 to $7 in 18 months, down 91%. If you ever wondered if any of these stocks (and brokers) are different than sh*tcoins and scammy stock-pump sites, now you know.
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By putting their large cash piles into Treasuries @ 5%, most tech companies are now making a higher cash return for shareholders on cash, than on their core business. The FCF yield is higher on the cash than on the business.
It also means buybacks are value destructive.
Ironic.
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How on Earth is $COIN now a sustainable business? Cost base is 2x revenue. They printed over $1.1bn in new shares to staff over the last nine months, the only thing that keeps it alive.
It’s not a crypto biz, it’s a stock printing biz.
Motto: “Print stock for fiat!”
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$COIN It’s truly ironic that the
#2
largest revenue line at the largest listed Crypto exchange is “interest income” they get from depositing their own & customers’ USD cash in US Treasuries.
Staking fiat with Uncle Sam is now their core business.
Just ironic.
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Jensen Huang co-founded $NVDA 30 years ago, in Apr-1993, and after 30 years he’s still the CEO. The stock is up 930x since its 1999 IPO.
Jensen came to the US as a 9yo, has a BS from Oregon State (where he met his wife, Lori) & an MS from Stanford. He’s worth $38bn.
G.O.A.T.🙇♂️
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@MacroAlf
Hey Alf, if you’re going to repost my stuff WITH MY NOTES ON IT then please at least attribute it! Theft is uncool. ☹️
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Bezos new $500 million super yacht in progress. What shipping billions of cardboard packages and being a top 3 holding in every single global ESG funds gets you.
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This is not some sh*tcoin or Ponzi-stock, this is the UK Government’s 40-yr bond. Imagine being close to retirement & buying this close to 100 in Dec last year because you were told “stocks are too risky”, and now sitting with it at 25. And your yield is still only 4.7%.
Yikes.
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Credit Suisse 1856-2023. RIP.
The only global bank that didn’t need bailout equity financing during the GFC (even GS & MS got TARP equity). Taken under by a rival, UBS, that was rescued from bankruptcy at the time by $69bn (!) in cash from the SNB.
How things change.
🪦
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$PTON Truly disastrous results. Mindblowing. Everything going backwards, fast. Revenue collapse, increasingly negative gross profit, massive FCF burn & huge net losses due to crazy rise in expenses, while subscriber growth is almost gone. “Mismanagement 101”. Chapter 11 playlist?
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Taylor Swift made more FCF from one arena show than $SPOT made in its entire 17 year corporate history.
IPO her.
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$COIN earnings looking like a smeared turd on the sidewalk.💩 Revnu down -76%, +5% q/q due to the Fed. Operating loss of $555m, stock comp at 71% of Revenue! 🤮 WHAT THE F**KING F**K? AUM ⬇️ $278bn to $80bn. Massive burn, cash down $3bn in a year. What type of Ponzi-hell is this?
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If you hold spare cash in your brokerage account you’re just giving free profits to your broker, who invests it in T-Bills (6M now at ~4.8%) and keeps the profits.
Instead, it’s much smarter to either buy T-Bills yourself OR to put the cash in either a T-Bill ETF or T-Bill fund.
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$JPM making a killing on this $FRC deal. Buying $18bn in net assets-at-market by paying $10.6bn, so a $7.4bn book profit!
Also subsidised financing & loan-loss sharing on top. Restructuring costs to be deducted from this, but… “Thank you, US government! Ca-shing!” -Jamie Dimon
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Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on $CVNA, with a “scam artist of the year” timeline:
Feb-21: It’s the Amazon of Auto! Upgrade to $420! 🥳
Mar-22: Still Best-in-class, Carvana is like Tesla! Worth $360! 🥴
Nov-22: Now, IF it survives, base case DCF value is $1! Bear case $0.1! ☠️
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$INTC An unprecedented sh*t-storm of bad decisions & execution. Rev down 28% yoy, margins at new lows, miss on everything, and catastrophic guide. WTF? What did they do to this iconic American business? Who is in charge here? 😵
It’s not an earnings release. It’s a crime scene.
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$SNAP has paid out a total of $8.2 billion in freshly issued stock (SBC) since its 2017 IPO. The company’s market cap today is $16bn, and it has never showed a profit (losing $9.2bn since the IPO).
They invented a literal money printer for themselves.
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$AMZN Bezos’ China-goods flea-market delivered a steaming pile of💩. Huge slowdown in growth at AWS to 27%. 😱 Non-US sales -5%. 😭 Op. margin halved! 🤢 Outlook way below consensus. And the worst chunk: Now $28.5bn in negative L12M FCF, -$46.2bn w record $17.7bn SBC. WTF? 🤯
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$META bagholders about to get diluted by a freshly printed 425 million new shares giveaway to employees! That’s $53 billion in grants (!) at the current $125 price, or 16% of market cap! ✌️
“Low FCF multiples” LMFAO. You got ZUCKED!
H/t
@jimmydagreek76
@AyeshaTariq
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A year ago, Morgan Stanley modelled $GOOG to generate $116bn of Operating Cash Flow in 2022 (ex SBC). Google ended up doing $91bn, so the forecast was off by $25bn.
How are the most highly paid analysts on Wall Street unable to forecast cash flows even for the next 12 months?
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Apple didn’t say the word AI a single time during the whole 2 hour+ WWDC presentation.
They said “prompts”, “on device machine learning”, “machine learnings models” and “transformer-powered” when describing new AI features.
But not AI. Not once. No hype.
Just pure product. 🍎
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$NVDA INSANE raise of Q2 guidance, with rev $11bn vs $7.2bn cons estimate (+64% y/y), COMPLETELY BANANAS! 💦 🤤 Implies non-GAAP EBIT $5.8bn vs $3bn cons! 😳 Throw the AI money right in my face! Last Q was ok (Data C +14%, Gaming -38% y/y) but who cares! AI IS COMING! 🚀 🌝 🦄
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The spoils of tech mega-grift: $LAZR founder Austin Russell owns the $83m house from Succession. The stock, which was pumped to the dumbest investors by mega-banks, has lost $15.8bn since 2021 (down 77%). The biz had $41m rev, a negative 148% gross margin & lost $446m last year.
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My Uber driver just told me he thinks this is the Lehman moment. 👀
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$NFLX spent $556m in marketing last quarter & still managed to shrink their subscriber base by 200k subs.
If they’d paid people $100 to sign up, that $556m would have generated them 5.6m new subscribers. If they spent $33 SAC per sub, 16m+ subs.
Churn must have been enormous.
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Google fired 12,000 workers
Chipotle just said they will hire 15,000 new workers
Net gain to society: +3,000 jobs, +500k new delicious burritos produced every day, -876 “Day in the life” TikTok videos.
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Adam Levinson’s Graticule Macro Hedge Fund ($4.5bn at peak) collapsed today after “wiping out years of gains”.
Fortunately for Adam he previously charged so much fees that he bought a modest $58m property in Bel Air last year. So at least he has a place to live and 15 bathrooms.
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Post-bubble sentiment changes are generational. It took $MSFT 17 years, until 2017, to break its market cap above the year 2000 high, despite the fact that this was always a profitable business that was a virtual monopoly. A whole new generation of investors was required.
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$NVDA Look, right now AI & ability to run Large Language Models is all that matters. So Rev -21% 😰, EBIT -58% 😭, big Q4 miss in Data Center & a 🦄 valuation (45x ‘24 EBITDA) after the YTD run-up? Noone cares! Everyone’s AI capex is Nvidia’s future revenue. AI-as-a-service! 🤤
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$NVDA shareholders waking up this morning being $240bn richer:
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Over just two years, $NVDA stock tripled, then lost -70%, and now almost tripled again.
During this time, the organisation itself has been stable & the product portfolio on plan. Yet we’ve seen massive narrative swings & financial forecast changes.
What are the lessons here?
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The fact that a largecap like $VIAC could fall by 40% in one day due to one single shareholder liquidating is a good reminder that public market “valuations” are only based on what the marginal buyer is willing to pay for a marginal share. Something many people don’t seem to get.
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The science around inflation is very clear. It’s Economics 101. So why are so many people so confused by it? It’s simple: Even the most senior people at financial firms have never experienced it in real life before. Most mid-senior people didn’t even experience the GFC at work.
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Not great from $GOOGL. Miss on top & bottom line, bear case playing out. Revenue slowed to +6% 😳, search +4%. YouTube ex-growth. TIKTOK🇨🇳! But Cloud +38% 😀. Costs exploding, margin 7
pp down to 25%. 25%+ more employees! Other bets a 🤡-show. Net buyback (only) 2.6% whole year.
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Why are money flows to equities increasing while bearishness is at a maximum? This is something we haven’t seen before, and intuitively doesn’t make much sense. If investors are super-bearish on market direction, why and how is money being added to equities? A few reasons:🧵 👇
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Wow: The S&P500 is exactly flat since the Fed started to hike rates. Imagine, we went from 0 to 5%+ rates and equities are… fine. 🥹 We did see a 17% max drawdown last fall… but all of that is now recovered.
S&P now exactly flat on a total return basis since the close on Powell's first rate hike on 3/16/22.
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$NVDA just casually gained $31bn in market cap today… while the Nasdaq is red. That’s more “value created” in a single day in than its entire profit from the last six years combined (2017-22)!
Panic-buying of that sweet, future AI money nectar continues. 🤖
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Starting to wonder how many more ads $GOOG can insert into YouTube. It’s just mindblowing now.
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I think about this picture a lot. When life feels tough, when your PowerPoint crashes or your Starbucks coffee is slightly too bitter, imagine having to go to work in a coal mine every day like this, to make sure your kids won’t die from starvation.
Gratitude for what we have.
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It’s ironic that banking, an industry with the highest employee compensation on the planet, requires recurring government bailouts and immense ongoing state guarantees, otherwise large parts of the whole industry would simply blow up and die.
Ironic.
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$BYND What in cockroach-burger eating hell is this?🪳🤮 This now has NEGATIVE gross profit? Rev -21%? The founders 🤡 should run a class at Ponzi University. I couldn’t even look past the P&L, I was so disgusted. Have to rinse my eyeballs. Like a roach, the stock won’t die, +9%.
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$NVDA BEATS LIKE A SCREAMING ORGASM! 🤤 💦 +101% growth, Data Center +171% y/y, +141% q/q. 😃 Record gross margin at 70.1%, +5.5pts on last q. $6.4bn in OpCF, up from $2.9bn last q. Q3 guide $16bn rev vs $12.5bn consensus! JUST INSANE! 🚀
Jensen is EMPEROR OF ALL TECH! 👑
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The $SIVB CFO was out spreading delusions, and the brainless pump-monkeys at JPM just ate it up.
The “bull case “😒 was that startups were quickly running out of cash, so HAD TO raise funds, and these new funds would then lead to a “surge in client funds” at SVB! Magic! 🦄🤡
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If $NVDA continues to rise by $40bn in market cap per day like today, it will reach $3 trillion, or $1200 per share, in 55 trading days.
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Q1 revenue growth:
Meta +2.6%
Google +2.6%
Netflix +3.7%
Microsoft+7.1%
Chipotle +17.2%
Carlsberg +14.2%
PepsiCo 14.3% (organic)
McDonald’s +12.6% (comp sales)
Looks like we may need to rebrand Burritos, Beer, Doritos and Big Macs as “Food-As-A-Service”
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$AMZN Incredible case study of how to (a) make the Street to dramatically lower their EPS estimates, then (b) “beating” these. EPS for this quarter fell -19% to 0.34 EPS since January. Meanwhile, stock rose +53%.
Then, a 0.65 EPS beat!
CFO will get a huge bonus. 👏 👏 👏
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Goldman’s list of buy-rated quality cash flow stocks: High CROCI (Cash Return on Cash Invested) relative to cost of capital, consistent FCF generation & strong balance sheets.
Solid list, especially for adding on big dips, as these recover well. What’s your fav on here?
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Hedge Fund top Shorts list from Goldman. $NVDA on top, and 7 out of the top 21 largest shorts are in Semiconductors.
More surprisingly, three of the top five short names are in Energy, with $OXY $XOM and $CVX. Betting hard against Buffett! Who will win? 🥹
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During the last 4 decades, since 1983, total wages in the US have grown from $1.56 trillion to $9.7 trillion, or 6.2x.
Meanwhile the market value of the Wiltshire 5000 index (the broadest US index) has grown 72x, from $590bn in ‘83 to $42.5trn today.
What does this tell you? 🧐
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Druckenmiller in interviews: “I believe in concentrated investing… The greatest investors make large, concentrated bets”.
Druckenmiller’s 13F filing: “I hold 48 stocks.”
🥴
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Total assets across ARK’s nine ETFs have gone from $60.3bn at peak to $11.4b. One of the largest organised wealth transfer machines of our time. Moving tens of $ billions of cash from naive retail investors to unscrupulous management teams and VCs. Aided by FinTwit’s worst. $ARKK
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Latest CEO compensation packages:
$AAPL Tim Cook $49m
$MSFT Satya Nadella $55m
$GOOG Sundar Pichai $225m
Something seems off here… 🤔
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Why is it always these two? Every single time.
And this time they ganged up!
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$NVDA stock was up 50%+ since Oct lows & delivered “Not Great!” earnings. Rev -17% y/y -12% q/q 👎, EPS (miss) -72%. GM +10% points 👍. Gaming collapse continues. Data Center still decel, +86% Q1, +61% Q2 & now +31% Q3. Guidance 🤨. Stock trading at 50x ‘24E P/E & 39x EBITDA.
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$SI Remember how all these shameless brokers lied to the longs about Silvergate?
“Exposure overblown & impacts are manageable”? “Dramatic overreaction”? We got LIQUIDATION in just four months, you monkey-brained JPM-pillocks!
Wall Street is broken. All the alpha is on Twitter.
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$GOOGL Shocking slowdown to +1% rev growth (+6% last Q), WTF 😳? Cloud +32% 👍, but down from +38% last Q. YouTube, Search, Ad Network, Services: All shrinking 😵! Margin fell from 29% to 24%. WTF is going on & how will this turn? Still a monopoly yes, but what’s in it for us? 🤔
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Spotted: An energy investor having his first profitable quarter in a decade and a half.
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Did going from 0% to 5% rates have any market impact whatsoever other than maybe ~20% of the absolutely most batsh*t crazy Ponzi schemes collapsing?
The rest survived & even thrived.
Everything else seems to be back at “2021 vibes”. Rates made no difference.
Why is this?
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$COIN stock is up 100%+ since the SEC charged it with being an illegal operation, making $ billions running various illegal schemes.
What a time to be alive. 😐
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$NVDA Never such insane upward revenue forecast revisions in my entire life. End of Jan, analysts predicted NVidia FY‘26 revenue of $38bn. Today, 8 mnths later, they forecast $90bn. Current year (‘24) has gone from $29bn to $49bn.
Simply unprecedented in the history of business.
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Some perspective: The total market cap of the 3 collapsed banks $SI $SIVB and $SBNY was $21bn at the end of last year.
That’s the equivalent of a 0.85% move in $AAPL. Apple was up 1.33% today.
Flies, and elephants.
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This year’s bear market hasn’t even erased the gains from 2021. If stocks are worth more now than they were when rates were zero, a stimmy-fuelled economy ruled and corporate profits had strong growth ahead, what does that imply? 🤔
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Credit Suisse Investment bankers: We just made $2bn in fees from dominating SPAC issuance this quarter. 800 people working full time 24/7 on deals.🙂
Credit Suisse Private bankers: Our team of two just lost $4bn on a margin loan to Bill Hwang’s family office. 😬
#LifeInBanking
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“The ten largest deposit accounts at SVB held $13.3 billion, in the aggregate”.
Did they send the US tax payer a thank-you note, I wonder? At least FDIC commissioner & future Yellen-speech fees are secured! $SIVB
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First Citizens “paid” a negative $16bn in equity for Silicon Valley Bank. They didn’t buy the ~$90bn deep-red securities portfolio. The FDIC will also cover 50% of commercial loan losses >$5bn.
A year ago professional investors were buying the equity of $SIVB at $35bn. $FCNCA
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$ROKU is still BROKU! One of the biggest recent pump-scams delivered a 💩-storm of guidance & 🤮 earnings. A China-funded spyware biz, gross profit FLAT for 6 qrtrs, yet costs exploding. ‘Profitless revenue pump’ worked for 🙊🙉🙈 investors. Sold $1bn in shrs at $410 last yr! 😒
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A former Goldman Sachs i-banking analyst & hedge fund manager is about to become the Prime Minister of the UK. At 42yo, Rishi Sunak will be the youngest PM since the Napoleonic wars.
Career path: Oxford, GS, Stanford, TCI, Treasury, Chancellor, PM.
He “still thinks in Excel”.
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$LYFT The 3rd-tier 🚗 dispatcher just blew out a gasket. $1bn rev, $422m loss? 🤡 $225m in SBC, 21% of revenue! A hit & run! Gross margin COLLAPSE!🚨 Even their “adjusted” (fake) EBITDA is down. This “biz” can’t ever make money, it’s just a stock printing machine. 5 💩 / 5.
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$LYFT 🤮 A giant vomit-stain of a “biz”, which even other scam-cos look down on in disgust. Lost $588m on $1.2bn in revenue despite flat seq ridership 😭. Q1 guide @ $975m vs $1.1bn consensus, EBITDA even worse. 😳. $750m ‘22 SBC! The Bing AI Chatbot could run this sh*t better!
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$NFLX spent $2.7bn on tech development just last year (in addition to all their tech & AWS spend involved in delivering the service).
$SPOT spent around $1.4bn.
Where is this money going? The apps have barely changed for years. Are they building rocket ships in the basement? 🤔
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European next-hour natural gas prices just went negative. 🥹
Not even “free gas”, you actually get paid to burn it. Because, just like oil during COVID, storage is full. Chart from
@JanVonGerich
Just as the doomsters predicted 🙄
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$IBKR is a superbly managed biz. Huge Q4 boost from rates. Strong growth with a 71% pre tax profit margin 🥹, in a super-highly competitive industry. Share so much with users (low fees & lowest margin rates in the industry) & yet runs global ops (150+ markets, 33 countries). 👏
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Reminder to all US folks: You can buy up to $10k in Treasury I-bond per year, and these now yield 9.62%. Not a bad place to inflation-protect $10k in cash/year. Risk free.
Rates change semi-annually based on inflation. If you cash them before 5yrs, you lose 3 months interest.
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Morgan Stanley’s 2021 initiation of $SI. The stock went to $239, but today opened at $6.80 today, 96% below MS’ price target.
“A bank like no other.” No sh*t, Sherlock! Life in the Ponzi-lane.
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“King of Pump” Brian Nowak at Morgan Stanley downgrades $META from $205 to $105. Great job when the stock is already down 70% YTD! The full pump-and-dump.
MS wealth management clients who were stuffed with this stock got f**ked raw by the “world class research team” 😒
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$CAVA reality: “We sell overpriced salads & pitas”.
Cava’s IPO prospectus: “We meet consumers’ desire to engage with convenient, authentic, purpose-driven brands that view food as a source of self-expression” 🥴
Some of these IPO prospectuses are just pure cringe banker poetry.
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$MSFT Clearly the best in mega-cap tech right now, Satya killing it. Rev +7.1% (+10% cc) beat by $2bn. 😀 Azure +31% cc (solid +27% guide), Commercial acceleration, with O365 +18%. EBIT +10% (15% cc) but FCF bit weak. Guide solid! 29x NTM P/E for 15-18% EPS growth next few yrs.
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$UPST Still the worst Ponziverse trash out there, like a toxic diarrhoea that’s going from bad to worse! 🤢Another dumpster 🔥 report, with revenue DOWN 52% (🤮). Guide is WTF crazy bad! 💩. ‘22 LOSS of $109m yet these f**kers paid themselves $126m in stock comp! SHUT IT DOWN!
65
71
864
It’s simply fascinating (and scary) that so many people in finance (of all levels) had no idea how banks actually work, considering they constantly interact with banks or work at banks.
On the other hand, it explains a lot. A LOT.
"If banks were suddenly forced to liquidate their bond and loan portfolios, the losses would erase between 77 percent and 91 percent of their combined capital cushion. It follows that large numbers of banks are terrifyingly fragile."
290
645
4K
43
70
848
Barbie passes $1.2 billion.
Margot Robbie’s legs generated more FCF post SBC than 96% of listed software companies.
32
63
852
$AMZN issued $17.7 billion in stock equity comp (SBC) to employees in the last 12 months. It’s the equivalent of $145 in stock per US household (122m), more than the $139 Prime fee.
If this was an IPO or equity offering, it would be the
#2
deal globally after Porsche, $19.5bn.
32
95
849
$NFLX 3.7% growth? 😒 Margin down, but cut content spend $1bn. Guidance also meh. Question is what FCF yield is a biz growing at 3-5% with flat/down EPS worth? At 10% & $3.0bn FCF (guidance - SBC), it’s $30bn. At 5%, it’s $60bn. Not $150bn! What FCF Yield would you value it at?
68
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834
$SPOT biz just getting worse? The more they grow, the more they lose! Rev +18%/+12% ccy (vs +21% last Q), but Gross profit +13% & Expenses +44%! 🤮 Massively negative scale economics. The podcast “biz” remains a joke. The winners? Employees (10.2k, +32%) who get loaded as f*ck!
55
94
823
New activist investor case on $DIS dropped, and they basically point out that it’s run like sh*t. For shareholders that is. For everyone else (employees, management, Hollywood, bankers) it’s a massive money printer. Revenue up, cash flows and earnings collapse, divvy removed…
37
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812
$ZM Now 7 qrtrs of no growth, yet printed an insane $1.3bn in stock comp, 69% of gross profit in Q4. 🤡 Operating loss widening, as gross profit +1% yet costs +70%. Guide sh*t @ +1% ‘24E rev. Cost cutting talk… so moving even more ops to China? Awesome!😣 UNINSTALL this spyware.
49
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804
How big can $30 Microsoft 365 AI Copilot be for $MSFT? It’s a no-brainer tool, as it boosts productivity so much.
350m seats, at 80% take up at a $30 monthly premium = 350m x 0.8 x 30 x 12 = $101bn in revenue.
Assuming a 40% incr. net margin, at 30x PE = +$1.2 trillion cap.
🥹
80
87
804
$SHOP Dumpster-fire miss all over. Only 16% GMV growth, only 7.5% subscription revenue growth, yet many costs almost doubled. Gross margin barely covers S&M & R&D. Negative economies of scale. Neg Operating FCF. About to go ex-growth, yet trades at 10x Rev & 105x forward EBITDA.
42
82
796