Liz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSonders
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Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Disclosures:
Naples, FL
Joined January 2015
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Pinned Tweet
Our latest
#OnInvesting
podcast episode has dropped, on which
@KathyJones
riff on this week’s Fed meeting:
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Unbelievable decline in shipping rates … cost to send 40-ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 74% from peak and is back to August 2020 levels
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Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020)
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Shipping costs falling at incredibly rapid rate … y/y change in cost to ship 40ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has dropped to -32%, lowest since start of pandemic
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We had to say goodbye today to my heart-and-soul, Oscar. He lived an incredible 14+ years and brought endless joy to our family. I will miss him forever. A piece of my heart went with him today. Rest In Peace my sweet boy. 💔
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Please send good vibes to my 91-year old dad, Ralph Sonders, who suffered his 2nd fall in 2 weeks … he’s a trooper and I love him to pieces
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Epic decline in shipping rates continues … cost to ship 40-ft container from Shanghai to LA has fallen by 76% from its peak, which is largest % decline in history of series
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My special Dad, 92-year old Ralph (well-known to my tweeps) took ill with COVID (his first time) and has been hospitalized … he’s doing well as you can see by his infectious smile … wish I could see him in person, but the photo will have to do for now
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Simply remarkable: shipping rate for 40-ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has slipped below long-term average (going back to 2011, full series), putting to bed notion that shipping rates are still elevated relative to entire pre-pandemic era
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Strong rally not yet deterring hedge funds as they continue to increase short positions in S&P 500 futures … positioning is most net short since summer 2020
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Cost to ship 40ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has plunged to lowest since May 2020, which means pandemic boom is close to being completely erased
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Hedge funds currently sitting with largest net short position in S&P 500 futures since late 2011
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Rate for shipping a 40ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has now fallen by 38%
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For tweeps who opt to take time to reply that the objective statistics/data I post are of no use whatsoever to them, you do know you don’t have to read my posts or follow me, right?
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Savings rate continues to evaporate … now at lowest (5.1%) since August 2009
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U.S. homebuyer must now earn $107,281 to afford typical $2,682 monthly mortgage payment, up 45.6% from $73,668 a year ago per
@Redfin
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Regardless of your outlook, saying the economy is ‘nowhere near a recession because the unemployment is so low’ goes against history of unemployment rate always near (or at) its lowest right before recession starts
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After saying goodbye to our beloved Oscar only 6 months ago, this afternoon we have to say goodbye to our middle guy, Norman (advanced cancer), who has been a true joy for 12 years … 2nd photo is of our little guy, Wilbur, on top…he knows 💔💔💔
…off Twitter for rest of day
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Goodbye to the savings boom: personal savings rate has fallen to 4.4%, which is back to financial crisis-era levels (lowest since September 2008)
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Less than 2 weeks after having to say goodbye to our beloved lab Oscar, our middle pup (Norman, 11 1/2) is in emergency surgery for a large tumor on his spleen…whether via prayers, crossed fingers/toes or just good vibes, please send them our way…Happy Thanksgiving to you all
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Top 1% of Americans (by wealth) own 53.1% of all stocks in United States; top 10% own almost 89% and bottom 50% own less than 1%
@federalreserve
@biancoresearch
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Over past 3 months, 2.55 million job openings have been shed, which is largest 3-month decline on record
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Probability of a U.S. recession (based on 2s10s yield curve per
@Economics
) has risen to highest since February 2007
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Per
@Redfin
… roughly 60k home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month; home sales are getting canceled at highest rate since start of pandemic
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Wow: pending home sales now down by nearly 37% year/year, which is worst annual decline on record (going back to 2002)
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Complete collapse in growth rate for M2 money supply … year/year pace now at weakest since May 1995
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Intuitively, we can sense that stocks have disconnected from earnings estimates; but check out below, which shows that correlation betweeen S&P 500 & forward earnings estimates has been +.90 over past 20 years, but a mirror image -.90 since 3/23/20
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Housing Affordability Index for first-time homebuyers has fallen to lowest/worst on record per
@nardotrealtor
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I will forever cherish this particular wedding photo (5/1/93) … Bob and I are still standing 28 years later; perhaps because those beautiful towers are still looking over us
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Yet another oddity in current labor market: full-time employment has plunged by nearly 1.4 million people over past three months … rolling 3m change of that magnitude is rare going back in history
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Major issue beneath headline: food component of CPI
#inflation
rose by 11.4% y/y in August, up from +10.9% prior and fastest rate since April 1979
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No profits? No problem … basket of unprofitable tech companies has gone parabolic in past year
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
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Confirmation that savings boom is over: personal savings rate fell to 6.2% in March, lowest since 2013
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All times since 1960 when S&P 500 had two consecutive 2.5%-plus days & subsequent 1 w, 1m, 3m & 6m performance
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Used car prices continue to crash per
@Manheim_US
Index … year/year change came in at -10.4% in October, worst since December 2008
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22 years ago today, I sat on the runway at Newark Airport waiting to take off to LA (8:47am departure) when, from the plane’s window, I saw the first tower in flames and watched the second plane go in; followed by watching the towers come down from inside the airport (it took 3…
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More than 20% of NASDAQ Biotech Index’s members are trading for less than cash … figure like this hasn’t existed in data going back to 2002
@Bloomberg
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Shipping rates remain in freefall this year, with cost of sending 40ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles down by 45% from peak
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Cost of shipping around world via container (ocean freight rates) continues to collapse ... routes with most dramatic declines have been those originating from Asia/Europe and ending in U.S.
@DataArbor
@DrewryShipping
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Real personal income excluding government transfer payments rose to new all-time high in September
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Future supply chain stress nonexistent per November
@KansasCityFed
Index … outlook for supplier delivery times has crashed to lowest on record
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Financial demands of supporting a family of 4 have surpassed what a
single salary can adequately provide
@FT
@SoberLook
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1/2 Remarkable: Since 1993, if you bought SPY on open/sold on close each day, return would be -5.2%...but if you did opposite & bought on close/sold on open next day, return would be 568% (meaning more than ALL performance came in after-hours trading) Source:
@bespokeinvest
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Savings rate has collapsed to 6.4%, lowest since 2013
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M2 money supply contracted by -1.2% m/m in March, worst on record
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Thru January, M2 money supply has contracted 1.7% year/year, which is most negative in history (going back several decades)
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Credit card interest rates continue to soar and have now passed peak seen in 1985 per
@NewYorkFed
data
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Hanging with my Dad
#Ralph
(and Mom) for an early Christmas gathering - turning 94 in ‘24! Proud Air Force vet and all-around great man.
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Homebuyers are backing out … roughly 63,000 home purchase agreements fell through in July, which equals 16.1% of homes that went under contract that month; highest % since March/April 2020
@Redfin
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Stunning drop in pending home sales continues as -22.5% y/y drop is among worst on record
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Looking at items in CPI, growth from 2000 to 2022 has been fastest for healthcare and education, while it’s been slowest (deeply negative) for TVs … at turn of century, flat screen TV was around 17% of median income; now it’s <1%
@VisualCap
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Recession probability model from
@NewYorkFed
continues to move up and is now at highest since 1982
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Stock ownership increasingly concentrated among small share of population; top 10% of earners owned 87% of all U.S. stocks in 1Q 2020—up from 82.4% in 2009—while bottom 50% owns just a sliver
@WSJ
@federalreserve
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Every day I get blasted & unfollowed on Twitter for being far right & far left ... it’s kinda funny
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Horrific increase in number of extreme poor throughout world ... pandemic has caused largest poverty reversal (+80 million) in three decades
@FT
@WorldBank
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New single-family home supply is surging … at 10.9 months in July, now highest since March 2009
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Wow: equity put/call ratio from CBOE spiked yesterday to highest since 1997
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S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio now sits at highest since mid-2000
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U.S. Pending Home Sales Index has now fallen by 44% from its peak, which is worse than during GFC
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Just got back from boating to beach bar in Marco Island for lunch...bartenders talking about nothing other than GME...hmmm
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Signing off, tweeps, for my first 2-week vacation in 6 years … heading to the “home country” (Norway) with hubby & both kids this evening (may share some photos, but NO CHARTS) … kom snart kilbake
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Say hello to our new little guy, Wilbur … 8 weeks old … we should have named him Dickens, because, well, he’s a little dickens (but deliciously adorable)
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Taking a few days off from X, to both work on our 2024 outlook as well as enjoy some family time … have a wonderful Thanksgiving X’ers
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Lumber futures have plunged back to June 2020 levels
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Mortgage rate bite: Quite a visual put together by
@M_McDonough
from
@Bloomberg
… for a $2,500/month payment and 20% down, one can afford a $476k house today; in early 2021, the figure was $759k
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Expansion of Fed's balance sheet during initial phase of banking stress has been nearly fully reversed
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If
#Twitter
is on its way down-and-out, let me just tweet that it’s been an honor to share our thoughts (and countless visuals) with all of you
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Large speculators/hedge funds have boosted net short S&P 500 futures positions even more, surpassing 2011 extreme and moving to 2007 territory
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Profit margins not yet signaling recession … aggregate U.S. corporate profit margins rose to 15.5% in 2Q22, strongest since end of 1950
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S&P 500 Energy sector's free cash flow yield continues to soar to multi-decade high
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After plunging by 84% from peak, rate to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles looks to have stabilized for now
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Diversify or delist:
@Nasdaq
just announced it’s going to require companies on its exchange to have at least 1 woman & 1 minority on BoD, or they’ll be delisted
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Equity put/call ratio spiked again yesterday to highest since early 1997 (similar to move in mid-November)
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2-month change in median price of new single-family home has cratered to -11.9% (worst in history; even beyond housing crash during GFC)
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S&P 500’s real earnings yield continues to plunge; now at -3.2% (an all-time low)
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No two bear markets are identical, but interesting to compare current one (orange) to that associated with tech bust in early 2000s (blue) … both indexed to 100 at respective peaks
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
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Friendly reminder: my name is Liz Ann, not Liz
(I’ll see myself out)
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Hedge funds not letting up on short bets … net futures positions for S&P 500 continue to plunge and are near lowest since June 2020
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Perhaps no surprise but total number of container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers traveling through Panama Canal has plunged ... last time at this level was April 2020
@Bloomberg
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Recession probability model from
@NewYorkFed
has climbed beyond its 2020 peak (by narrow margin) and is now at its highest since GFC
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By end of 2021, 15% of S&P 500’s members had a price/sales ratio > 10
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Corporate profits contracted by 6.5% year/year in 2Q23 … acceleration to downside from prior quarter’s 1.8% decline; worst drop since pandemic
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