Dave DesRoches
@DBDesRoches
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Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, Nat'l Defense University, DC. Middle East, Arms Sales, Gulf, COIN,Missile Def. Aspirant Flaneur
Joined June 2015
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@SamRamani2
BREAKING: Ukrainian Farmers say they’ll match Russian pledges to provide modern Russian military equipment to Belarus.
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For context, the last US Lieutenant General killed in combat was at Okinawa… although one was lost in the Pentagon on 9/11.
NEW: Ukrainian troops have killed Russian Lt. Gen. Andrei Mordvichev in combat, commander of the 8th General Army of 🇷🇺 Southern Military District: Ukraine military statement.
Mordvichev would be the 5th 🇷🇺 general & highest-ranking officer killed in 🇺🇦 in 23 days of war.
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@joshscampbell
@lrozen
@kpolantz
This is already a requirement. Recall there were stories at the start of the administration about WH staffers policing up ripped POTUS notes. e.g.,
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🧵(1/ 20) Thoughts on the
#US
/
#Saudi
relationship ILO
@OPECSecretariat
decision: There’s a marked elite / citizenry divide in the US over the relationship: popular opinion is asserting itself in a way neither side wants.
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Two more suicide drones reportedly intercepted by the worlds most practiced air defense force.
#القوات_المشتركة للتحالف: الدفاعات السعودية تعترض وتدمر طائرتين مسيّرتين مفخختين أطلقهما الحوثيون باتجاه المملكة.
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Word.
#SaudiArabia
is the global leader in ballistic missile intercepts, and has actually improved
#Patriot
doctrine over what the US Army uses.
#UAE
is the first country to intercept a hostile missile with THAAD.
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@Missile_Defense
The UAE and KSA are remarkably safe despite these attacks - testimony to the skill of their security forces and the resources they have devoted to defense. Countries that lack such resources and skilled air defense and security organizations would not be so fortunate.
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Can
#USA
fight a high intensity war? I don’t think we have the industrial base..
#Ukraine
uses 1/4 of a years production of
#Javelin
every week, argues a new
@RUSI_org
paper.
@TheStudyofWar
@NATO
@RALee85
@WarintheFuture
@WarOnTheRocks
@CH_MENAP
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Prediction: By May 10, General Dvonikov and the former Black Sea Fleet commander will be cellmates.
#RussiaUkraineWar
Ha. Look at this. The Ukrainians are pushing NE the other side of Izyum too. Look out for Russian forces being surrounded in Izyum in next 24/48 hours.
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Here's a good news
#WuhanCoronaVirus
story:
#Bahrain
, which would appear to be extremely vulnerable, is a case-study in how to manage
#coronavirus
@moi_bahrain
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@EGIC_
@CH_MENAP
@ACMideast
@CMF_Bahrain
@ArabCenterWDC
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@SamRamani2
Never thought of that before. Good idea. First, though, why not refer it to the UN committee on decolonization?
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Exactly. You can’t have a secure defense industrial base if you have tons of software experts but no machinists or welders. A late wake-up is better than no wake-up. We need to have national awards for excellence in welding and machining!
@TheStudyofWar
Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante says Ukraine has helped him understand what really matters. "What really matters is production."
"We as a country did our best to not do production," LaPlante said.
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@khamenei_ir
Mercenaries? The US doesn’t have to pay Iranians to hate you and your rule. Iranians do it for free.
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Thread (1 of 9) Lots of angst over the
#UAE
threats to cancel
#F35
purchase. Most miss the point b/c most don't know how US
#weapons
sales work (or not).
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@CENTCOM
@CH_MENAP
@RUSI_org
@modgovae
@IISS_org
@thegulfblog
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@Cinzia_Bianco
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@CavasShips
@YorukIsik
This is a
@USNavy
wide problem. Optempo too high; lack of maintenance port time.
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(1/2) Been saying for a while that
@DeptofDefense
+
@NATO
industrial base isn't up to the task of sustaining
@Ukraine
versus
#RussianArmy
. New
@CSIS
study gives the details.
@isw
@DAUNow
@RUSI_org
@Jack_Watling
@Justin_Br0nk
@warstudies
@ArmyMateriel
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@CyberOtters
I’m happy for anyone who serves a term in the Army comparable to mine to receive benefits comparable to mine. I’m not happy to see money being handed to those who have never served for little reason other than political efficacy.
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If your military is involved in business, you eventually wind up with a bad military and a bad economy. As inevitable as gravity…
President Sisi says the company responsible for building the New Capital (which is majority owned by Egypt's military) wants to RENT the govt district to the Egyptian state for 4 billion Egyptian pounds a year
Most states have a military. Egypt's military has a state 🧵
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Here’s your morning read on
#UkraineRussianWar
. Jack is a great analyst, has great sources and knows the score.
@TheStudyofWar
@US_EUCOM
NEW: Russia is beginning to lose so many troops after 3 weeks of war in Ukraine that frontline soldiers are starting to worry about how long they can hold out, officials told
@ak_mack
& me
But it's not clear Putin is hearing that, one European diplo said
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@ColinKahl
If you describe yourself as an Alpha male or a gentleman, chances are pretty good you are neither.
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Here's a contrarian view on
#Jerusalem
. I don't think the Embassy will move before
@realDonaldTrump
first term ends. As with
#JCPOA
decertification, Trump just doesn't want his signature on it. He'll give the order, say he did his part, and the bureaucracy will slow-roll.
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#qatar
negotiations for
#S400
proceed;
#USA
doesn't weigh in. Why? here's some analysis:
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@MiddleEastInst
@thegulfblog
@GulfStatesInst
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#Qatari
success isn't just a function of
#lobbying
$$; access to senior leaders helps as well. But
@CSISMidEast
Alterman's quote is on the money:
#quartet
has no incentive to settle.
#gcccrisis
@thegulfblog
@Aljaberzoon
@GulfStatesInst
"The shift has infuriated Qatar’s regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to their representatives and allies."
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Yup. Interesting -- think it reflects ignorance rather than policy position.
الجلسة الحالية لاعضاء من الكونجرس بدأت باتهام قطر والاخوان وحماس وانتهت باتهام المملكة والوهابية بأنها خلف الاٍرهاب والتطرف
@HudsonInstitute
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This shows the effectiveness of
#Ukraine
️ decoys.
#RussianArmy
doesn’t know what it has done, which means it doesn’t know what it should do.
#RussiaUkraineWar
@TheStudyofWar
@RALee85
@WarintheFuture
@ArmyMadSci
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Interesting.
@StateDept
Middle East supremo (a VERY good guy) testifies he has no inside knowledge of
#Kushner
plan for ME peace.
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@MrKovalenko
The slab breaks too clean and there’s no cratering or pavement disintegration that you would associate with a missile strike or a truck bomb. It looks to me like charges were placed on the bridge support at a seam on the roadway. The railroad fire was just good timing.
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@dcexaminer
@Uncle_Jimbo
@BrianKarem
@SebGorka
gotta give Gorka some points for wearing that suit in this swampy weather....
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Nothing puts a smile on your face like discussing the great issues of the day with
@A_Tabatabai
, especially en route to
#baghdad
, one of the world’s great cities! We don’t always agree, but I always learn something. Which is what a real scholar does.
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My favorite description of
@realDonaldTrump
speech in
#SaudiArabia
"uncharacteristically inoffensive."
#RiyadhSummit
#RiyadhSummit2017
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This rpt is cited as showing
#SaudiArabia
hacked
@JeffBezos
cellphone. Actually read it -- not as conclusive as reported. See what you think:
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@rickberke
@statnews
@NicholasFlorko
By comparison, here's the org chart of the actual Manhattan project:
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@JackDetsch
Believe Professor Snyder wins your punk rock band naming contest with “Vectors of Discord” below. Total mic drop!
1/30 Putin is responsible for the invasion, and must redistribute blame for its failure. After a month, some vectors of discord in the Russian government have suggested themselves. (Thread)
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@Norman_Roule
My friend, you phrase it as if there’s a question. They are the most experienced force in the world right now in intercepting advanced missiles.
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@ZekeJMiller
@lrozen
normally "Honorable" only refers to folks who have been confirmed by the Senate.
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I rely heavily on
@NegarMortazavi
in my analysis of
#iran
and the regional threat it poses. Anyone who harasses her is both unscholarly and does a disservice to my mission. Which is to advance the national security of the US and its partners.
All my support to
@NegarMortazavi
and
@farnazfassihi
2 great journalists who are being threatened because some people disagree with their coverage. Negar had to flee Iran and today she is accused of being an agent of the regime. Appalling.
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(1/3) Read this, discuss it, go over the issues. Then put it aside -- it's a fantasy.
@POTUS
would not even SUBMIT a
#USA
#Saudi
mutual defense treaty to the Senate. Last thing in the world he wants is for
@SenatorTester
to go on record on that.
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When you study economics on-line at universities which advertise on sports radio:
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but inflation means that your money and the gold that backs it are literally inflating in value. Inflating means going up. That’s a good thing.
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Lights went out during panel before Steve Bannon speaks: 5 mins in dark. And we're locked in to prevent protesters. "Carrie"?
#Hudson
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Was just out shopping, thought I was dealing with
#CoronavirusOutbreak
#panicbuying
&
#pricegouging
. Then I realized I was at Whole Foods. What a relief!
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The erroneous view that the US has “left” the Middle East, in particular the Gulf, is ingrained in the region. I have literally given the same presentation, showing the same data, to the same group four years in a row and gotten the same questions.
Good overview of pushback on US force reduction in the Middle East, where significant presence remains. Still, the overwhelming view in the region is the US has left.
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Motives of
#QatarCrisis
#GCCCrisis
players? Here's a good article:
@thegulfblog
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@GulfStateAnalyt
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Everyone else was interviewed by a journalist. A new standard for softball.
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Note to the commentariat: This is NOT what an air defense system does. And we don't live in Springfield:
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@Mylovanov
#ISIS
developed this capability on their own.
#Mexican
drug cartels have done the same. This is not hard — anyone who wants to do this can.
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New book chapter! Honored to be on the masthead with
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@abaabood
. Download here:
#QatarCrisis
@ArabCenterWDC
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@PhilipRucker
@Dr_Ulrichsen
Pedantic note: there is no $110B arms deal. There is a series of smaller deals, some of which date from the Obama administration, which in aggregate reach $110B. This is just a US offer -- the Saudis haven't signed up for all.
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This is as good a time as any to re-tweet my short discussion of
#Iran
strategic asymmetry.
#IRGC
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@CH_MENAP
@TheStudyofWar
@WarInstitute
@EGIC_
@RUSI_org
@barbaraslavin1
@AlexVatanka
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My new
@GulfStatesInst
piece looks at
#weapons
sales to the
#MiddleEast
under
@JoeBiden
@CENTCOM
@CH_MENAP
@EGIC_
@RUSI_org
@thegulfblog
@Cinzia_Bianco
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@IISS_org
@ArabCenterWDC
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Very interesting film of
@modgovksa
troops disarming
#Houthi
mine.
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@GulfStateAnalyt
@USNINews
@CMF_Bahrain
@CENTCOM
@EGIC_
@CH_MENAP
@NATO
@peterjsalisbury
@thegulfblog
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🧵on drinking alcohol in
@GCCSG
states. Yes, they’re all
#Muslim
and yes,
#Qatar
is actually Wahabbi (same as
#SaudiArabia
) but practices vary. None of these states want to encourage drinking, but some profit from it and all regulate it. (1/7)
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@PoliticsIt82
This is footage of a ship called X Press Pearl which caught fire off the coast of Sri Lanka over a year ago.
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@lrozen
Then again, he also warned the American people against hiring Trump as president and that didn't work out so well.
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@Doranimated
She’s also talking to the National Institutes of Health police force (guard force really), asking them to take action outside of their jurisdiction.
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@Austan_Goolsbee
Marge and Homer got the house from Abe before they sent him to Springfield Retirement Castle. This is what happens when you neglect the classics in higher education.
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(3/20) Pick your reason why: racism, Protestant Work Ethic, dissimilar political systems, diff. values. Any explanation works equally well. (I discussed in a chapter here.) Bottom Line: there is no reservoir of good will for KSA in USA.
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Always worth revisiting: The desirability of living in a country is inversely related to the frequency the country's leader invokes national sovereignty.
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Money remains fungible.
#iran
is getting $$ it otherwise wouldn't b/c it holds
#hostages
. It will spend that on good stuff, and use the $$ saved to buy weapons. Insults won't change that basic fact.
#IranRansomDeal
2/ For the last time, it’s so hacky to say it’s a “ransom”. It’s not. The fact that Iran is our enemy doesn’t change the law. And the law says the $6B is Iran’s money that we were holding.
And it can only be used to buy oil and food for people in need.
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More barbarianism from an illegal, corrupt, repressive regime gasping for life as the
#IRGC
picks over the bones of its people for what $$ it can get. Hat tip to
@EastRisk
#IranProtests
, Sanandaj, Kurdistan province, today. According to
@IHRights
, more than 30 people were killed in Iran during the last four days.
#MahsaAmini
#مهسا_امینی
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Well, this didn’t age well (remarks on September 29).
I guess his calendar has been re-arranged for him.
Everyone in public life always re-learns the lessons of Harold MacMillan.
After the attack on
#Israel
today, there should be introspection not only in Israel but also in Washington. On September 29, the U.S. national security advisor argued “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades now." 1/2
#IsraelUnderFire
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@lrozen
Sadly, unrealistic expectations. No one has enough ambulances on duty around midnight on Sunday to handle 600+ wounded / killed
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Time to guess how the
@washingtonpost
obituaries will describe
#Soleimani
& his friend AM.
I’m guessing “well travelled Iranian Patriot” and “Iraqi protest leader.”
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(7 of 9) So why was the
#UAE
offered
#F35
w/out understanding the conditions that come with it? My guess is the
#abrahamaccords
were negotiated in such secrecy that the folks in USG doing it were unaware of the process to safeguard "crown jewels" tech in weapons sales...
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Thread (1 of 4). Here's my new art. on
#defense
industries in the
#gulf
for
@ArabCenterWDC
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@IISS_org
@SIPRIorg
@GAMI_KSA
@_edgegroup
@MiddleEastInst
@CSISMidEast
@CENTCOM
@kfcris_en
@NeilQuilliam1
@thegulfblog
@Dr_Ulrichsen
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yes but... that study noted many locs were "spoofed" -- many falsely claimed Mecca (& USA). Also Saudi has 38M, Qatar 300K Read the study
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Yup.
#SaudiArabia
is a different country from just two years ago.
At the Red Sea Mall in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Anybody who knows the country will realize how incredible this change is
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#jcpoa
is obviously dead. Why are we trying to revive it while this goes on? Can
#Iran
take it as anything other than a sign of weakness?
Iran media are celebrating 'apostate' Salman Rushdie being 'en route to hell'.
State media call him Murtad or "apostate", religiously justifying assaults on his life.
Supreme Leader controlled Keyhan daily says the assailant's hands "should be showered with kisses".🧵#سلمان_رشدی
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Just to clarify: this isn’t the Mexican army or police — it’s a cartel.
This is terrifying. Video released by the Mexican cartel and paramilitary group CJNG show the extent of militarization of their special forces. Scores of armed & kitted out fighters in standardized uniforms line a large convoy of up-armored troop transport vehicles and technicals
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Why do
#gulf
companies tend to underperform? One explanation is they value loyalty over ability in choosing senior leaders -- it's called "the Italian Disease." Here's an interesting discussion:
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Yup. These things don't move that quickly. We will have to see the details, but SNEP II has been in works for years
Saudi advisor says $110 bn arms was drafted during
#Obama
time..now hailed as a an achievement for
@POTUS
#RiyadhSummit
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@lrozen
Titles mean something. Otherwise I would have retired from the Army as "Fort" rather than "Colonel."
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@Ursus_Maior
@The_Lookout_N
SHORAD has to be cued. There’s probably tons of RU Helos flying about, operators overwhelmed by the junk on their screen, and the UA helos probably flew an irregular path.
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Are
#israel
and
#SaudiArabia
trying to lead
#USA
into war with
#Iran
? Here's a pessimistic assessment
#IranRegimeChange
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@GulfStatesInst
@thegulfblog
@TheNESACenter
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@SamRamani2
4). None of the above. The production of F -35 is a very long process under the best of circumstances: these aren’t those. UAE can read and know delivery is years off. Biden is signaling to his base differences w/ Trump’s rushed notification. At minimal cost to the program.
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@Farhadrezaeii
@barbaraslavin1
Your loss, bro. We have to confront these people and, in the service of scholarship, have to meet with all sorts of unsavory people. "Meet" doesn't mean "approve of."
@barbaraslavin1
is searching for insight and raises unpleasant issues with all kinds of important people.
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@SamRamani2
Deal was started well before current
#RussiaUkraineCrisis
. USG just takes a long time.
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“US national security goals rarely change between administrations. The Middle East has always been a lower priority than Asia or Europe, but we had a lot of troops there while we were fighting two wars. Now, we are not leaving but reverting to normal.”
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I'm in near constant contact with
@GCCSG
military officers, and get asked a lot about the
#Yemen
war and the role of
#iran
#IRGC
. I find that one of the best resources -- outside trad. pol/mil analysts -- is
@CARPObonn
. Useful for practitioners & academics. 🧵 (1/7)
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@mikepompeo
My mother used to enjoy working with your Mom; I'm sorry to hear she has passed. But I'm sure she is proud of you!
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@afneil
History is important, particularly when one talks about Empire and other countries. Here's my favorite historical image from that period
@Dr_Ulrichsen
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What's the context behind the
#SaudiArabia
crackdown on
#WomenEmpowerment
?
@Agsiw
's esteemed
@kdiwaniya
provides insightful analysis. .
@Dr_Ulrichsen
@thegulfblog
@Cinzia_Bianco
@EGIC_
@GulfStateAnalyt
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One of the best short pieces I’ve read on
#iran
military doctrine. The role of
#SaudiArabia
in shaping Iran’s threat perception has been overlooked — until
@Divsallar
‘s work. Highly recommended:
@GulfStatesInst
@GulfIntlForum
@MiddleEastInst
@CENTCOM
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