Rob Lee
@RALee85
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Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.
Joined November 2015
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.
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Ukrainian soldier with a Javelin ATGM and a destroyed Russian T-72B tank.
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Very poor tactics displayed by this Russian armored force so close to Kyiv. They're well within range of Ukrainian artillery in Kyiv, they're on an obvious avenue of approach, and they still decided to bunch up like this, leaving them more vulnerable to indirect fire.
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Sadly, I am going to start a thread on the Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022. I want to emphasize that everyone should be skeptical of videos and photos that have not been confirmed, which will include some of the posts in this thread.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first air strike by a foreign country in Russian (or Soviet) territory since World War II.
Video of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters striking the oil storage facility in Belgorod with rockets.
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Video of a Russian Mi-24 helicopter getting shot down reportedly from this morning.
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Ukrainian farmers with a captured Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS BM-1 launcher.
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The year is 2020. Amidst a global pandemic, Guns N' Roses' Axl Rose says the Secretary of the Treasury and producer of Wonder Woman is "officially an asshole." In response, the Executive Producer of the Lego Movie asks what Rose has done for his country with the flag of Liberia.
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The best thing the US can do to help Ukraine is to convince Putin that de-escalation is a less costly and risky option for him than continuing the war. Calling for regime change or assassination does the opposite.
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Video of the Russian Kh-22 missile strike on the shopping mall in Kremenchuk yesterday from a nearby park.
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Two US officials confirmed that Ukraine shot down a second Il-76 transport aircraft tonight. If true, this would be a really significant mistake for the Russian military, and possibly the worst loss of life for the Russian Airborne Forces since the 2nd Chechen War.
New @AP reporting tonight: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked to evacuate Kyiv at the behest of the U.S. government but turned down the offer. An American official tells me Zelenskyy said, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
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Every time Ukrainian troops retake a town that was under Russian occupation, we see these kind of scenes. Something to keep in mind when people tell Ukraine they need to stop their advances or negotiate away territory occupied by Russia. That would mean abandoning Ukrainians.
Amazing footage of the first Ukrainian troops reaching Kherson’s main square.
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Russian paratroopers with a BMD-2 vehicle looting a gas station.
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Video of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters striking the oil storage facility in Belgorod with rockets.
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This might be the first TB2 UCAV aviation kill. It looks like a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was struck while dismounting soldiers onto Snake Island.
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This is reportedly footage of a failed Russian air defense system missile launch from Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast.
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Today may have been the worst day for the Russian military in Ukraine so far. They are still advancing, but there were a # of videos of destroyed or abandoned equipment and units. I have no idea why they sent in a small spetsnaz unit into Kharkiv, but it was easily repelled.
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This is reportedly in Melitopol. Russian forces continue to face resistance in cities they’ve occupied.
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Reportedly the first video of US M777 howitzers being used by Ukrainian troops in combat in eastern Ukraine.
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The commander of Russia's 12th Engineer Brigade based in Ufa, Colonel Sergei Porokhnya, was reportedly killed in Ukraine while deploying a bridge.
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A destroyed/abandoned Rosgvardia column in Kharkiv with OMON riot gear.
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Ukrainian farmers with a captured Russian 2S34 Khosta 120mm howitzer/mortar.
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Ukrainian farmers with a captured Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS BM-1 launcher.
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The BBC confirmed Ukraine's claim that retired Russian Major General Kanamat Botashev was shot down, possibly by a Stinger MANPADS, in a Su-25 aircraft near Popasna on Sunday and killed. It appears he was flying for Wagner.
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Better footage of the Russian Mi-35M helicopter that was shot down.
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A Ukrainian BTR-4E vehicle firing its 30mm cannon at Russian troops.
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Colonel Alexander Bespalov, the commander of the 59th Guards Tank Regiment (part of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.
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"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials.
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Insane. The fire at the oil facility in Belgorod was reportedly a result of an attack by two Ukrainian helicopters apparently firing S-8 rockets.
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Ukrainian soldiers from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade with new commercial thermal imagers.
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Video of a UAV from Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanized Brigade dropping munitions on Russian soldiers.
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To summarize, several Russian telegram channels are warning that the battle in Lyman is at a critical point and that Ukraine is advancing from the north and southeast. Possible that the pocket collapses tonight or tomorrow, which would overshadow the annexation announcement.
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UAV footage allegedly showing a Javelin ATGM strike on a Russian tank.
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Two-part video from Ukraine's 54th Mechanized Brigade showing artillery strikes on a Russian armored column.
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Very clear view of the vehicle portion of the bridge that collapsed and the railway portion on fire.
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A Russian soldier apparently ran away from this Ukrainian UAV and back to his unit, which was then struck by Ukrainian artillery.
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Ukrainian UAV footage showing artillery strikes on a Russian T-72B3 tank and vehicles in a forest.
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Thread on Russian losses in Ukraine. Note, I will only share information from Russian sources, either media, social media or officials, which means the family members will have been previously notified.
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Russian Telegram channels are saying that a Russian unit was struck by HIMARS this morning on the Kreminna front with ~100 KIA and ~100 WIA. They were reportedly waiting near the front for a speech from a commander for hours.
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Reportedly footage of a Ukrainian UAV kamikaze strike on a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast.
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Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
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The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 6 Kinzhal missiles from 6 MiG-31K aircraft, 9 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, 3 S-400 or Iskander-M missiles, and 6 Shahed / Geran-2 drones over night, all of which were successfully intercepted.
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I wasn't sure about many of the casualty estimates for Russian forces before, but, looking at the extent of the destroyed equipment and bodies of Russian soldiers being recovered by Ukrainian forces right now, the 10k KIA figure or higher wouldn't be surprising.
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Ukrainian UAV footage showing a Russian tank being struck with a munition, possibly an anti-tank mine.
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A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
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Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
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Photo of a damaged Ukrainian M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley. Maliar says it withstood a direct strike from a Russian Grad 122mm rocket. It is now being repaired and the crew survived.
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Russian Major General Roman Kutuzov was killed in the Donbas reportedly in Mykolaivka near Popasna. Different sources claim he was the commander of Russia's 5th Combined Arms Army or the DNR's 1st Army Corps.
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Residents of a town in Chernihiv blocked Russian tanks from passing through their village.
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Video of Ukrainian forces during the offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. For those saying tanks are obsolete, Ukraine is using them in their offensives.
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Ukrainian officials are claiming that Wagner took heavy losses yesterday.
#Wagner base in occupied #Luhansk region was destroyed, only one racist survived. The enemy base is located at the local stadium in #Kadiivka, which the russians brazenly occupied in 2014 #UkraineRussiaWar
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This looks like a legitimate video of a Ukrainian TB2 UCAV strike on a Russian military column.
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Video of a captured Russian T-90A tank being pulled by a Ukrainian tank.
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There is a large fire reportedly coming from the Belbek airfield in Crimea home to Russia’s 27th Composite Aviation Division.
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One of the big stories of this war so far is how Ukrainian forces have managed to hold elite Russian VDV forces back in Hostomel, Bucha, and Irpin, protecting Kyiv.
‼️#працюєГУР🦉.🔥Спецпризначенці Головного управління розвідки МО України знищили у Гостомелі ще 10 ворожих БМД. Трива�� бій за контроль над містом Гостомель. В районі місцевого склозаводу станом на 18.30 вже знищено 10 бойових машин десанту ворога. 1/2
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Video of a tank from Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade firing at Russian positions at close range before it was assaulted by infantry.
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A Russian channel complains about the quality of the tires used by military trucks, which is a particular problem in flooded areas. They say they can only replace the wheels after 52k km, but the tire below has only driven 42k km.
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Some early thoughts:.-More questions than answers.-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution.-This was a mutiny not a coup.-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon.-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive .-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over.
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Video reportedly of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters that took part in the attack on the oil facility in Belgorod.
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My argument regarding Russia's behavior:.1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence .2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities.3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation.
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Ukrainian protestors urinating on a Russian MT-LBu vehicle. Looks like a 1V114 artillery battery command post vehicle.
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The commander of the Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, Colonel Aleksey Sharov, was killed near Mariupol.
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Ukraine’s 17th Tank Brigade reportedly targeted a Russian pontoon bridge crossing with several destroyed tanks and BMPs.
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A Russian channel says that the Chief of Staff of Russia's 35th Combined Arms Army Major General Sergei Goryachev was killed in a missile strike.
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Ukrainian officials are claiming that Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuev, the commander of Russia's 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment (2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.
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Video showing a Ukrainian DJI Mavic UAV dropping a munition on Russian troops.
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Video of Azov soldiers sabotaging a railroad bridge to hamper Russia’s resupply efforts.
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Graphic video of a UAV from Ukraine's 59th Motorized Brigade dropping a munition on Russian troops in a defensive position.
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Video of a Ukrainian UAV tracking Russian soldiers as they return to their position before targeting them with artillery fire.
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Another TB2 UCAV video posted by the Ukrainian Navy that appears to show strikes on two more Russian Raptor fast-attack craft.
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Protestors in Kherson chanting while walking past Russian Rosgvardia troops.
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Soldiers from the Ukrainian 54th Mechanized Brigade receiving new DJI Mavic UAVs and thermal imagers.
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Russian Lieutenant Igor Sukhanov was a commander of a Russian spetsnaz reconnaissance group. He was killed in Ukraine on June 4.
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Russia achieved limited tactical gains at high cost over the winter. Ukraine correctly held back resources and spent time regenerating offensive potential to give itself a better chance of achieving operational-strategic level gains this summer.
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Looks like the first combat loss of a Russian Su-35S fighter in Kharkiv Oblast.
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Ukrainian farmer with a captured Russian T-72B3 tank in Malaya Rohan.
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Video of Ukrainian SSO after ambushing a Russian military column in Kharkiv Oblast by destroying a bridge as it crossed. They salvage equipment, including the Tigr-M’s heavy machine gun, before driving away in a pickup.
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Video of Ukrainian soldiers launching a Stugna-P ATGM at a Russian tank.
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Video of a Ukrainian ATGM strike on a Russian Ural-4320 truck in Rubizhne.
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Good example on the tactical level of why tanks are still critical for supporting infantry advances against entrenched defensive positions. Video from Ukraine’s Georgian Legion.
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A Russian aircraft (reportedly a Su-34) has crashed in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast.
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