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Rob Lee

@RALee85

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Senior Fellow @FPRI . Previously @USMC , @ColumbiaSIPA , @CentreAST . Focused on Russian defense policy.

Joined November 2015
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@RALee85
Rob Lee
1 year
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian soldier with a Javelin ATGM and a destroyed Russian T-72B tank.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Very poor tactics displayed by this Russian armored force so close to Kyiv. They're well within range of Ukrainian artillery in Kyiv, they're on an obvious avenue of approach, and they still decided to bunch up like this, leaving them more vulnerable to indirect fire.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A Russian fuel convoy was ambushed in Chernihiv Oblast.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Sadly, I am going to start a thread on the Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022. I want to emphasize that everyone should be skeptical of videos and photos that have not been confirmed, which will include some of the posts in this thread.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first air strike by a foreign country in Russian (or Soviet) territory since World War II.
@RALee85
Rob Lee
2 years
Video of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters striking the oil storage facility in Belgorod with rockets.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of a Russian Mi-24 helicopter getting shot down reportedly from this morning.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmers with a captured Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS BM-1 launcher.
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Rob Lee
4 years
The year is 2020. Amidst a global pandemic, Guns N' Roses' Axl Rose says the Secretary of the Treasury and producer of Wonder Woman is "officially an asshole." In response, the Executive Producer of the Lego Movie asks what Rose has done for his country with the flag of Liberia.
@PhCrowther
Philip Crowther
4 years
An exchange on Twitter.
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Rob Lee
2 years
The best thing the US can do to help Ukraine is to convince Putin that de-escalation is a less costly and risky option for him than continuing the war. Calling for regime change or assassination does the opposite.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian soldiers with Lithuanian EDM4S-UA C-UAS systems.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of the Russian Kh-22 missile strike on the shopping mall in Kremenchuk yesterday from a nearby park.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Two US officials confirmed that Ukraine shot down a second Il-76 transport aircraft tonight. If true, this would be a really significant mistake for the Russian military, and possibly the worst loss of life for the Russian Airborne Forces since the 2nd Chechen War.
@JimLaPorta
Jim LaPorta
2 years
New @AP reporting tonight: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked to evacuate Kyiv at the behest of the U.S. government but turned down the offer. An American official tells me Zelenskyy said, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
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Rob Lee
2 years
Russian paratroopers with a BMD-2 vehicle looting a gas station.
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@RALee85
Rob Lee
1 year
Every time Ukrainian troops retake a town that was under Russian occupation, we see these kind of scenes. Something to keep in mind when people tell Ukraine they need to stop their advances or negotiate away territory occupied by Russia. That would mean abandoning Ukrainians.
@yarotrof
Yaroslav Trofimov
1 year
Amazing footage of the first Ukrainian troops reaching Kherson’s main square.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters striking the oil storage facility in Belgorod with rockets.
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Rob Lee
2 years
This might be the first TB2 UCAV aviation kill. It looks like a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was struck while dismounting soldiers onto Snake Island.
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Rob Lee
2 years
This is reportedly footage of a failed Russian air defense system missile launch from Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Today may have been the worst day for the Russian military in Ukraine so far. They are still advancing, but there were a # of videos of destroyed or abandoned equipment and units. I have no idea why they sent in a small spetsnaz unit into Kharkiv, but it was easily repelled.
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Rob Lee
2 years
This is reportedly in Melitopol. Russian forces continue to face resistance in cities they’ve occupied.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Russian T-80BVM turret was blown off the tank. (h/t @Michael1Sheldon )
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@GirkinGirkin
IgorGirkin
2 years
Харьков, потери всрф
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Rob Lee
2 years
Reportedly the first video of US M777 howitzers being used by Ukrainian troops in combat in eastern Ukraine.
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Rob Lee
2 years
The commander of Russia's 12th Engineer Brigade based in Ufa, Colonel Sergei Porokhnya, was reportedly killed in Ukraine while deploying a bridge.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmers with a captured Russian 2S34 Khosta 120mm howitzer/mortar.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A destroyed/abandoned Rosgvardia column in Kharkiv with OMON riot gear.
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Rob Lee
2 years
The BBC confirmed Ukraine's claim that retired Russian Major General Kanamat Botashev was shot down, possibly by a Stinger MANPADS, in a Su-25 aircraft near Popasna on Sunday and killed. It appears he was flying for Wagner.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmers with a captured Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS BM-1 launcher.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Better footage of the Russian Mi-35M helicopter that was shot down.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A Ukrainian BTR-4E vehicle firing its 30mm cannon at Russian troops.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Colonel Alexander Bespalov, the commander of the 59th Guards Tank Regiment (part of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.
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Rob Lee
2 years
"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Insane. The fire at the oil facility in Belgorod was reportedly a result of an attack by two Ukrainian helicopters apparently firing S-8 rockets.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian soldiers from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade with new commercial thermal imagers.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Mariupol.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of a UAV from Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanized Brigade dropping munitions on Russian soldiers.
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Rob Lee
2 years
The Ukrainian Military has officially claimed that the commander of the Russian Southern Military District's 8th Combined Arms Army Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev was killed, reportedly at the airfield in Kherson.
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Rob Lee
2 years
To summarize, several Russian telegram channels are warning that the battle in Lyman is at a critical point and that Ukraine is advancing from the north and southeast. Possible that the pocket collapses tonight or tomorrow, which would overshadow the annexation announcement.
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Rob Lee
2 years
UAV footage allegedly showing a Javelin ATGM strike on a Russian tank.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Two-part video from Ukraine's 54th Mechanized Brigade showing artillery strikes on a Russian armored column.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A Russian soldier apparently ran away from this Ukrainian UAV and back to his unit, which was then struck by Ukrainian artillery.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Very clear view of the vehicle portion of the bridge that collapsed and the railway portion on fire.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian UAV footage showing artillery strikes on a Russian T-72B3 tank and vehicles in a forest.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of the explosions at Saki Airbase in Crimea.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Thread on Russian losses in Ukraine. Note, I will only share information from Russian sources, either media, social media or officials, which means the family members will have been previously notified.
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Rob Lee
11 months
Russian Telegram channels are saying that a Russian unit was struck by HIMARS this morning on the Kreminna front with ~100 KIA and ~100 WIA. They were reportedly waiting near the front for a speech from a commander for hours.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Reportedly footage of a Ukrainian UAV kamikaze strike on a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
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Rob Lee
2 years
I wasn't sure about many of the casualty estimates for Russian forces before, but, looking at the extent of the destroyed equipment and bodies of Russian soldiers being recovered by Ukrainian forces right now, the 10k KIA figure or higher wouldn't be surprising.
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Rob Lee
1 year
The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 6 Kinzhal missiles from 6 MiG-31K aircraft, 9 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, 3 S-400 or Iskander-M missiles, and 6 Shahed / Geran-2 drones over night, all of which were successfully intercepted.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian UAV footage showing a Russian tank being struck with a munition, possibly an anti-tank mine.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Mariupol.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
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Rob Lee
11 months
Photo of a damaged Ukrainian M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley. Maliar says it withstood a direct strike from a Russian Grad 122mm rocket. It is now being repaired and the crew survived.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A captured Russian T-80U tank from Russia's 4th Tank Division.
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Rob Lee
2 years
The Crimean bridge.
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Rob Lee
11 months
Video of a Russian tank hitting anti-tank mines.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Russian Major General Roman Kutuzov was killed in the Donbas reportedly in Mykolaivka near Popasna. Different sources claim he was the commander of Russia's 5th Combined Arms Army or the DNR's 1st Army Corps.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Residents of a town in Chernihiv blocked Russian tanks from passing through their village.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of Ukrainian forces during the offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. For those saying tanks are obsolete, Ukraine is using them in their offensives.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of damage to the Crimean Bridge.
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Rob Lee
11 months
Lol
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian officials are claiming that Wagner took heavy losses yesterday.
@serhey_hayday
Serhiy Hayday
2 years
#Wagner base in occupied #Luhansk region was destroyed, only one racist survived. The enemy base is located at the local stadium in #Kadiivka , which the russians brazenly occupied in 2014 #UkraineRussiaWar
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Rob Lee
2 years
This looks like a legitimate video of a Ukrainian TB2 UCAV strike on a Russian military column.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of a captured Russian T-90A tank being pulled by a Ukrainian tank.
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Rob Lee
2 years
There is a large fire reportedly coming from the Belbek airfield in Crimea home to Russia’s 27th Composite Aviation Division.
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Rob Lee
2 years
A Russian T-72B tank fell off a bridge.
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Rob Lee
2 years
One of the big stories of this war so far is how Ukrainian forces have managed to hold elite Russian VDV forces back in Hostomel, Bucha, and Irpin, protecting Kyiv.
@DI_Ukraine
Defence intelligence of Ukraine
2 years
‼️#працюєГУР🦉 🔥Спецпризначенці Головного управління розвідки МО України знищили у Гостомелі ще 10 ворожих БМД Триває бій за контроль над містом Гостомель. В районі місцевого склозаводу станом на 18.30 вже знищено 10 бойових машин десанту ворога. 1/2
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Rob Lee
1 year
Video of a tank from Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade firing at Russian positions at close range before it was assaulted by infantry.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmer pulling a Russian BTR with his tractor.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian soldier with a DJI UAV.
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2 years
Ukrainian soldiers repainting a captured Russian Tigr-M vehicle.
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Rob Lee
11 months
A Russian channel complains about the quality of the tires used by military trucks, which is a particular problem in flooded areas. They say they can only replace the wheels after 52k km, but the tire below has only driven 42k km.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmer with a captured Russian MT-LB.
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Rob Lee
10 months
Some early thoughts: -More questions than answers -Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution -This was a mutiny not a coup -Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon -Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive -The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over
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Rob Lee
2 years
My argument regarding Russia's behavior: 1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence 2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities 3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian soldier with an NLAW.
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2 years
Video reportedly of the two Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopters that took part in the attack on the oil facility in Belgorod.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian protestors urinating on a Russian MT-LBu vehicle. Looks like a 1V114 artillery battery command post vehicle.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Russian Rosgvardia troops kicking a protestor in Kherson.
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Rob Lee
2 years
The commander of the Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, Colonel Aleksey Sharov, was killed near Mariupol.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukraine’s 17th Tank Brigade reportedly targeted a Russian pontoon bridge crossing with several destroyed tanks and BMPs.
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Rob Lee
11 months
A Russian channel says that the Chief of Staff of Russia's 35th Combined Arms Army Major General Sergei Goryachev was killed in a missile strike.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian officials are claiming that Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuev, the commander of Russia's 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment (2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video showing a Ukrainian DJI Mavic UAV dropping a munition on Russian troops.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of Azov soldiers sabotaging a railroad bridge to hamper Russia’s resupply efforts.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Graphic video of a UAV from Ukraine's 59th Motorized Brigade dropping a munition on Russian troops in a defensive position.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of a Ukrainian UAV tracking Russian soldiers as they return to their position before targeting them with artillery fire.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Protestors in Kherson chanting while walking past Russian Rosgvardia troops.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Another TB2 UCAV video posted by the Ukrainian Navy that appears to show strikes on two more Russian Raptor fast-attack craft.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Soldiers from the Ukrainian 54th Mechanized Brigade receiving new DJI Mavic UAVs and thermal imagers.
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Rob Lee
11 months
Russian Lieutenant Igor Sukhanov was a commander of a Russian spetsnaz reconnaissance group. He was killed in Ukraine on June 4.
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Rob Lee
11 months
Russia achieved limited tactical gains at high cost over the winter. Ukraine correctly held back resources and spent time regenerating offensive potential to give itself a better chance of achieving operational-strategic level gains this summer.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Looks like the first combat loss of a Russian Su-35S fighter in Kharkiv Oblast.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmer with a captured Russian T-72B3 tank in Malaya Rohan.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of a Ukrainian ATGM strike on a Russian Ural-4320 truck in Rubizhne.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of Ukrainian SSO after ambushing a Russian military column in Kharkiv Oblast by destroying a bridge as it crossed. They salvage equipment, including the Tigr-M’s heavy machine gun, before driving away in a pickup.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Video of Ukrainian soldiers launching a Stugna-P ATGM at a Russian tank.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Good example on the tactical level of why tanks are still critical for supporting infantry advances against entrenched defensive positions. Video from Ukraine’s Georgian Legion.
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Rob Lee
2 years
Ukrainian farmer with a captured Russian BMD-4M.
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