Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
Followers
348K
Following
79K
Media
5K
Statuses
24K
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow for Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Joined December 2017
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is available at Amazon and USNI Books. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. All my royalties from sales will be donated to Ukrainian charities & crowdfunders. @USNIBooks #Ukraine
25
80
277
It is too early to ascertain the method of attack and the range of implications of this attack on the Kerch Bridge. It is certainly a punch in the face for Putin on his birthday. A couple of thoughts however in this short (for me) thread. 1/9 🧵.
550
5K
22K
The battle of Kharkiv has been won by #Ukraine, with Russian forces withdrawing to the north & east. Today, analysis on what is next for Ukraine’s military as it exploits a faltering Russian eastern offensive. 1/25
158
3K
17K
Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25 🧵
1K
3K
17K
The last 48 hours have seen some stunning battlefield developments in #Ukraine. Ukrainian operations in the northeast continue to exploit its penetration of Russian defences. 1/18 🧵
120
2K
16K
Back in May, I examined Ukraine’s military strategy in a thread that I informally called ‘The Ukrainians are Masters of 21st Century War”. Today, an update on the Ukrainian approach - the "strategy of corrosion". 1/25 🧵
450
4K
16K
There is a lot going on in #Ukraine at the moment. The macro story is that Russia appears to have lost the initiative at every level. But there is also an interesting story to be told about Ukrainian campaign planning. 1/24
190
2K
13K
Three days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen Russian advances in the north, south and east. Ground gained in the north has been particularly costly for Russian forces. My 3rd set of observations, noting the ongoing abundance of ambiguity. 1/24
155
3K
13K
The last 48 hours have seen quite a lot happening in #Ukraine. While the southern offensive continues, the Ukrainian operations around Kharkiv have achieved a significant penetration of Russian defences on the Kupiansk-Izium axis. What might this mean? 1/25
127
2K
13K
“Ukraine cannot be safe or rebuild its economy until Crimea is out of Russian hands.” . The (strong) case for why #Ukraine must take back #Crimea - and why the West must help, from @Andriypzag at @ForeignAffairs .
424
2K
12K
Putin hasn’t taken Ukraine because he can’t. Because of Ukrainian courage & resilience. To suggest “not taking all of Ukraine” is a Russian concession is ludicrous and morally corrupt.
697
3K
14K
The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost one week into execution. As the Russians slowly but surely redeploy forces to seal off the breach in their border and attempt to push the Ukrainians back into #Ukraine, it is worth pondering the options the Ukrainians might have once
209
2K
12K
9/ I am sure we will learn more details in the coming hours and days. But this ‘smoking incident’ is sure to be linked to other events in Ukraine’s overall military strategy. A bad month for Russia just keeps getting worse. Good. End.
65
635
11K
Today’s speech by Putin is a milestone in the Russo-Ukraine War. It may be useful for Putin in a domestic politics sense. But, as has been the case throughout this war, it is terrible strategy for Russia. A thread on the implications of Putin’s latest ‘bold’ move. 1/25
369
2K
11K
Ukrainian objectives for the #Kursk operation have gained some recent clarity with statements by the Ukrainian President, as well as other Ukrainian officials. What are these objectives, and what are the Russian options to respond to the Ukrainian Kursk campaign? 1/24 🧵🇺🇦
121
2K
12K
Now that we have had a couple of days to observe the new Ukrainian cross-border attack into Kursk, I wanted to offer a quick assessment of what we know, as well as Ukraine's potential objectives and the challenges it faces. 1/23 🧵( (Image: @DefenceU)
170
2K
11K
In the past 48 hours, reports have emerged of a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions near the village of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region. The attack utilised dozens of uncrewed ground combat vehicles (UGV). 1/5 🧵🇺🇦
110
2K
12K
A little over three weeks ago, I sat in a large conference room in Kyiv and listened to President Zelensky outline how his country, despite the heroic achievements of its armed forces and people, would need a continuing flow of military assistance from the west. 1/22 🧵
195
2K
11K
In the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of a potential Russian withdrawal from its Dnipro west bank defensive positions. While this may fit General Surovikin’s overall strategy for #Ukraine, it will be difficult to execute successfully. 1/24 🧵
198
2K
11K
He has just made it very likely that no military organisation will allow themselves to be placed in such a situation again. Why would Starlink ever be seen as an assured, trusted service by soldiers again?.
⚡️Ukrainian front line 'would collapse' if Starlink is turned off, Musk claims.
488
2K
11K
7/ A third and final point: this is a massive influence operation win for Ukraine. Even if they didn’t do it, it is a demonstration to Russians, and the rest of the world, that Russia’s military cannot protect any of the provinces it recently annexed.
47
850
10K
More details are emerging about the Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea. Lots more clarity to come in the following days, but a few immediate observations are possible. 1/20 🧵 #Sevastopol.
Unbelievable footage from one of the marine drones used in the attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. (Via Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko). Full story:
159
2K
10K
The Ukrainian attack on Russian bases in Crimea in the past week has brought attention back to a war which many in the west have largely lost sight of. In this thread, an examination of the prospects for a Ukrainian victory. 1/18 🧵
106
2K
9K
President Zelensky of #Ukraine has just completed his historic and stirring speech to the US Congress. What were his key messages, and what might we take away from his address? A thread on my initial impressions. 1/24 🧵
124
1K
9K
In the last 48 hours, #Ukraine conducted one of its longest-range strategic strikes yet. Today, an update on what is occurring with Ukraine’s multiple strike campaigns, their key functions and the challenges that Ukraine will face in strike operations against Russia for the
60
1K
9K
Eleven days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, and another broken Russian ‘ceasefire’. Today - the war in the south, and why it matters. 1/25
115
2K
8K
The Ukrainian attack into #Kursk, now into its 3rd week, was a tactical & operational surprise for the Russians. But the Ukrainians also surprised their supporters in the West. And part of the reason is that many Western nations can’t conceive of such audacity in the modern.
124
1K
9K
Ukraine is continuing to push forward in #Kursk while also conducting a difficult defensive campaign in the Donbas. On the Russian side, the Russians are continuing to push on their main effort – the advance towards Pokrovsk – while seeking to redeploy forces from other areas to
87
1K
9K
“Even if there is no electricity, they will not extinguish the light and faith in ourselves.” . @ZelenskyyUa speaking to US Congress
192
873
8K
The Ukrainian southern campaign continues to play out. While their forces fix Russian defenders in the south west, the Ukrainians are advancing from the north. Some observations on the Kherson & Kharkiv offensives. 1/20 🧵.
A timelapse of the development of Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson Oblast over the past 5 days.
92
1K
8K
The ripples from the Wagner mutiny in Russia over the weekend continue to propagate across the Russian systems. A quick assessment of the impact on Russia’s ‘fighting power’. 1/25 🧵
134
1K
8K
8/ And if we were impressed by the outflow of Russians after the recent naval aviation base attack, the rush to leave Crimea will be probably be even greater now. Lack of confidence in Putin and his military will grow.
30
530
8K
It has become increasingly likely that North Korean combat troops will appear in #Ukraine soon. While there remain many unknowns on this subject, the deployment of North Korean troops raises many different potential issues for Russia, Ukraine and NATO. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
171
2K
8K
It is 16 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I will examine the the importance of the adaptation battle in war, and how it is playing out in Ukraine. (Image - BBC)
101
1K
8K
The announcements in the past day of infantry fighting vehicles being sent to #Ukraine represent an increase in capability for Ukraine’s soldiers, and a change in mindset in the Western leaders. What does this mean for 2023? 1/25 🧵🇺🇦
132
1K
8K
It has been nearly three weeks since the initial ground combat phase of the Ukrainian 2023 offensives commenced. What is the state of the campaign? 1/25 🧵
138
1K
8K
The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 🧵.
149
2K
7K
This week saw the failure of Russia’s President Putin to openly elicit military assistance from China for his special military operation. It could be a strategic turning point of the war, particularly as #Ukraine launches its offensives. 1/25
163
1K
8K
The Battle of #Bakhmut has now raged since August 2022. The massive human and material resources expended by Russians on this objective may soon necessitate a Ukrainian withdrawal. 1/25 🧵
223
1K
7K
I was going to do a thread today on the implications of Ukraine’s offensive around Kharkiv. Instead, I have pushed that to tomorrow in order to discuss the Russian river crossing operation over the Severskyi Donets this week in #Ukraine. 1/.
Ukraine’s 17th Tank Brigade reportedly targeted a Russian pontoon bridge crossing with several destroyed tanks and BMPs.
140
1K
7K
In the last day or so, a video showing Russian soldiers conducting a hideous and repulsive act against a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner of war has circulated. While I will not amplify this, I wanted to provide some thoughts. 1/15 🧵
223
2K
7K
Leadership.
62
488
7K
Day 19 of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. Today I examine the implications of Russian personnel commitments and losses, and what this now means for their campaign. 1/25 (Image - @IAPonomarenko)
144
2K
7K
A quick, strategic assessment of Putin's use of the Oreshnik missile in a strike against #Ukraine. In short, this was a political strike not a military one. 1/10 🧵
156
1K
8K
The situation with the Ukrainian #offensive in the south remains unclear. That said, we know enough about both sides - and from the history of such operations - to propose a few areas that are likely to determine success or failure in the coming weeks. 1/23 🧵 (Art: Rado Javor)
112
1K
7K
This week’s strikes on Russian munitions storage facilities are part of the maturing Ukrainian strategic strike campaign. Long-range strike has been an important strategic adaptation for the Ukrainians since 2022. There is much other nations can learn from this. 1/17 🧵
54
1K
7K
Four days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress according to multiple sources. My 4th set of observations, noting the ongoing lack of clarity & abundance of ambiguity. 1/24
89
1K
7K
It nearly 6 months since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today, I explore Ukraine’s potential counteroffensive in the south, and the considerations for planning and conducting such a large-scale campaign. 1/25 🧵
150
1K
7K
In the last few days, an interview given by the new Russian commander in #Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, was reported in the media. Noting that “the situation regarding the special operation is tense”, an assessment of his campaign options going forward is required. 1/25 🧵
100
1K
6K
4/ Second, the Ukrainians so far have been excellent at operational design and shaping operations in advance of their advances. This could be part of their design for taking back Crimea in the short term - or part of a deception operation to distract from other areas.
16
351
6K
5/ Either way, it presents the Russians with a significant problem. It doesn’t stop resupply to Crimea (there are boats and the route through Melitopol), but it makes holding Melitopol even more important for the Russians. (Image: @TheStudyofWar)
60
494
6K
6/ This would be the point in a class that the instructor would ask “so, what do we think the next operational objective for the Ukrainians might be?” Because of this, we may see Russian redeployments in the south, which will unveil other weaknesses & opportunities for #Ukraine.
25
348
6K
24/ Ukraine, largely, has refused to fight how Russia wants to fight. It has developed & implemented its own military strategy with great discipline. What might other nations learn from the Ukrainian Armed Forces? In short – a lot. That is the topic of my next thread. End
95
461
6K
In the past few hours, we have seen the Russian response to the attack on the Kerch bridge over the weekend. It has responded in two ways. First, a series of missile attacks against civilian targets across Ukraine. Second, command changes. 1/24 🧵
130
1K
6K
2/ First dropping a bridge span like this would take a lot of ‘bang’ (explosives) and good demolition design. As a sapper, we plan these kind of things all the time. The hardest bridges to drop are reinforced concrete like this. (Image: @RALee85)
45
478
6K
Back in May, I explored the likely Russian objectives for its military operations in 2024, and how it was progressing towards them. Russia has built strategic momentum with its assaults on Ukraine in the past six months. However, they have largely failed to exploit their
75
981
6K
The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? They have answered this question emphatically with their Kharkiv offensive. 1/19
75
987
6K
In a 1973 lecture Sir Michael Howard discussed surprise, noting “this is an aspect. which needs to be studied above all others in the Armed Forces: the capacity to adapt oneself to the utterly unpredictable, the entirely unknown. Today, another surprise. 1/25🧵
97
1K
6K
For those who follow the provision of United States’ military assistance to Ukraine closely, over the past several months a new pattern in support has emerged. A key aspect of this new pattern is the provision of battlefield mobility capabilities. 1/25 🧵
86
950
6K
A just and enduring peace is not possible until #Ukraine defeats Russian forces occupying its territory, ejects Russian forces and establishes the deterrent regime that ensures the long-term security of its territory and its people. 1/22🧵
136
938
6K
It is 18 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I explore initial lessons of the Russian military transformation program of the past decade against their military performance in #Ukraine. 1/25 (Image @UAWeapons)
123
1K
6K
We are now past the 100 day mark since Russian began its invasion of #Ukraine. Today, an examination why strategic patience is needed in our support for Ukraine to defeat the Russian invasion. 1/24
143
1K
6K
3/ The amount of explosive required would be more than a few SF personnel could carry. A few trucks, or missiles / bombs would do the trick, if aimed at the right points of the bridge span.
44
325
6K
One rarely gets to meet their heroes. But today I had the honour of meeting with @ZelenskyyUa in Kyiv. It was a privilege to discuss with him the defence of #Ukrakne, and the need for more western support. @SlawomirDebski @PISM_Poland
108
382
5K
Today, an examination of the Ukrainian strategy of 'corrosion', that - so far - has seen it successfully fend off a larger and (theoretically, at least) more powerful invader. 1/25
96
1K
5K
A month has passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. Today I will examine again how the Russian campaign continues to evolve, particularly in light of today’s briefing by Russian Colonel General Rudskoy. 1/25
133
1K
5K
23/ We will be studying this campaign for decades into the future. But for now, we need to ensure the west continues to provide the equipment and munitions for this campaign, and for those that will inevitably follow. End.
53
438
5K
Personal bucket list thing - if I ever get to travel to #Ukraine, one of the many, many, many heroes there I would love to meet is @IAPonomarenko. One day.
82
175
5K
More information is emerging about the Russian withdrawal from West Bank of the Dniepr River in #Ukraine. This will have a range of impacts on the war. 1/25 🧵.
Moment Surovikin and Shoygu admit defeat in the Kherson direction and announce the withdrawal of troops.
178
1K
5K
“The Battle of Kherson is the most far-reaching Ukrainian success since the Battle of Kyiv. It is also the heaviest blow to Russian pride, morale, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership throughout the war.” @IAPonomarenko
65
777
5K
As a general rule, countries that are doing well (regardless of the endeavour) don’t have to turn to North Korea for help.
Thousands of North Korean soldiers will soon be fighting a war in Europe. 🇰🇵🇷🇺🇪🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸
212
710
5K
“What nation serious about its security in the 21st century will want to partner with the Germans after this appalling deficit of leadership and strategic courage?” . The Great Tank Debate, at Futura Doctrina
219
887
5K
The uncertainty inherent in military operations is part of the enduring nature of war. It is impossible for a military institution to anticipate everything. Therefore, a key virtue for military organizations in war must be adaptability. Adaptation in #Ukraine - an update 1/25 🧵
48
694
5K
In 1914-1915, a scandal erupted in England about the shortage of high explosive shells for the western front. There was a lag in industry expanding to satisfy the enormous consumption of munitions in the war. Something similar is occurring now with #Ukraine. 1/24
127
794
5K
I have been asked how it felt to meet to @ZelenskyyUa. In truth, I felt tiny next to this giant of a leader, while at the same time immensely comfortable, reassured and grateful to be in the presence of someone who stepped forward to lead in the darkest of hours | @PISM_Poland
64
345
5K
While the Russian Army’s offensive in the east continues, it is likely in the short term that they will reach the limit of their offensive capability. As such, today I explore what transitioning to a defensive strategy might mean for the Russians in Ukraine. 1/25
107
1K
5K
Thirteen days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I examine reports that Russia has committed 100% of forces assembled before the invasion, including what it means for their campaign. War, among other things, is also about maths. 1/25 (Image - @ForeignPolicy)
97
1K
5K
In military operations, we often speak about ‘momentum’ and ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in military publications, and heavily emphasised in #leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether Russia is generating momentum in #Ukraine. 1/25 🧵
104
901
5K
It is 66 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I explore Ukraine’s options to respond to a faltering Russian offensive in the east. 1/25 (Image - @washingtonpost)
106
915
5K
In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether there may be a pending shift in the initiative in #Ukraine. 1/25 🧵
131
1K
5K
It is 59 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I will update my analysis of Russia’s shift to the east and examine the prospects for Russian success there. 1/25 (Image - @UAWeapons)
125
1K
5K
It is 42 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today I examine Russia’s shift in emphasis to the east and analyse what its campaign might look like. Tomorrow I will follow this up with Ukraine’s options to respond. 1/25 (Image - @IAPonomarenko)
80
853
5K
An updated thread on the wartime #leadership demonstrated by @ZelenskyyUa – with a focus on visiting troops in the field, particularly in the wake of the successful Kharkiv offensive. 1/10 🧵
74
732
5K
Two weeks since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I will examine the discovery of ‘old truths’ about war, and how it has impacted on leadership in this particular conflict. 1/25
90
1K
5K
Recently, I have written how Russia’s strategy for Ukraine is evolving (again), as well as the potential impacts of winter. Looking beyond the next few months, what might Russia’s options be for 2023, and what are the vulnerabilities Ukraine can attack? 1/24 🧵
104
872
5K
As we seen the unfolding Ukrainian operations in southern Ukraine, it is worth pondering, what happens when Ukraine takes back the south? 1/21 🧵
130
823
5K
Over the last 2 months, Russia has undertaken a series of thrusts in eastern #Ukraine to capture territory & weaken Ukraine’s armed forces. Soon, it will be the turn of the Ukrainians to resume their offensive operations. 1/20 🧵
86
584
5K
In warfare, an important target is often the enemy commander and the headquarters that assists them to plan and execute military operations. A thread on #Gerasimov, failure and the coming Ukrainian offensives. 1/25 🧵
86
689
5K
The Australian senate recently released a report into support for #Ukraine. Overall, this is a quality report that describes many of Ukraine’s needs as well as Australia’s capacity to assist. 1/7 🧵 🇺🇦
56
754
5K