Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
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DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Author "Russia in Africa" & "Putin's War on Ukraine" @HurstPublishers Email [email protected]
London, England
Joined October 2013
Chartwell Speakers has taken me on as a speaker on world affairs and geopolitics My agent is Natasha Lyons To book me as a speaker, send an email to natasha@chartwellspeakers.com
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Zelensky sanctions his close associate Mindich but only AFTER he left Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seeking to shield himself on from a spiraling corruption scandal in Ukraine involving several top officials and people close to him, has signed sanctions (presidential decree №843/2025) against Timur Mindich, the co-owner of his entertainment company that
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Zelensky is now at a crossroads in his political career What he does in the coming weeks relating to this scandal could play a key role in shaping Ukraine's medium-term political future /END
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Ukraine's long term goal is to leverage its critical minerals, topography and strategic location to become a renewable energy hub for Europe post-war Taking on corruption in the energy sector will help that plan along /10
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It will also deflate the narratives of his opponents like Poroshenko who believe that Zelensky uses anti-corruption to settle personal and political scores The bonus of cleaning up the energy sector is a big win (Europe is rushing for short-term and long-term projects /9
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If he lets things play out, he might weather the storm Zelensky has turned around declining approval ratings before (early 2022 and early 2025) and allowing prosecutions on corruption to extend to close allies adds some sincerity to his anti-corruption pledge /8
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If he tries to weaken NABU or SAPO's authority, increase presidential control over law enforcement and try to suppress the case as revelations about Mindich's ties to Zelensky, Yermak and Kolomoisky resurface, that will be a disastrous move A repeat of the summer beckons /7
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So far, Zelensky has supported NABU's efforts and urged for corruption to be punished without naming Mindich or Halushchenko personally He will keep with that line publicly but there are questions as to what he'll do behind the scenes /6
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There are a plethora of takes now saying that Zelensky's demise is inevitable Yet we should not underestimate his ability to weather the storm and his future is still largely in his hands/depends on how he weathers the storm /5
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While some of what has unfolded is baked into Ukrainian political/business/societal assumptions, it is still extremely jarring $100 million in energy sector graft involving a sitting Justice Minister during Russian missile strikes on power grids is a bitter pill /4
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DTEK's alleged undisclosed monopolistic role in the electrical sector also caused controversies Price gouging and market manipulation allegations surrounded Rinat Akhmetov's company especially during the Poroshenko era /3
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The energy sector in Ukraine is also notoriously corrupt Coal was the initial playground for kleptocracy during the 1990s and early 2000s Yulia Tymoshenko tried to reform the coal sector and was removed/charged by Leonid Kuchma /2
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Murmurings about corruption involving Timur Mindich were swirling in Kyiv for months but not making the international media in a significant way The revelations of graft involving him are not coming as a huge shock to some of my sources in Kyiv /1
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Ukraine has been rocked by a massive energy sector corruption scandal My company Pangea Geopolitical Risk is working on this crisis and mapping out what comes next Here are some insights and perspectives /THREAD
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Ukraine has been rocked by a massive corruption scandal As its power grids are getting battered by Russian missiles, revelations of graft are hitting Zelensky's inner circle My latest article for The Telegraph breaks it all down https://t.co/M8g69WbEGd
telegraph.co.uk
Two Ukrainian ministers have so far resigned over claims of a $100m energy sector embezzlement scheme
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✍️ 'We must corral regional actors to participate actively in negotiations and sanction those who are arming warring factions' | Writes @SamRamani2 Read the column ⬇️ https://t.co/Z14x8ssPxa
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Now is the time for urgent diplomacy, humanitarian aid and punishments of the enablers of this war One has to hope that the external powers that fuel conflict in Sudan belatedly use their leverage to become peacemakers /END
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USAID's gutting destroyed 80% of Sudan's emergency food kitchens and Britain's aid cuts prevented an efficient response to Sudan's catastrophe in El Fasher (even as intelligence warned of an imminent massacre) A tragic chain of events that brought us to where we are today /14
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To many Sudanese, Molly Phee became a symbol of a US policy that gave too much legitimacy and leeway to autocrats and shunned Sudanese civil society This ensured that the proxy war in Sudan played out and a resolution to the conflict became impossible /13
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While the US and Saudi Arabia rushed to push for peace, the foundations behind these efforts were hollow Inadequate sanctions on the illicit gold trade that powered Hemedti and no new strategy in Libya or CAR or backing of democratic forces /12
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This staged the path for a coup in October 2021 which emboldened both generals further They got assurances of support from their external backers and were confident that they could win swiftly in an all-out war This false confidence ignited the April 2023 war /11
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