Shashank Joshi
@shashj
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Defence editor @TheEconomist, Visiting fellow @warstudies KCL. Signal: shashank.96. Speaking engagements: https://t.co/8V3SSBwUYe
Joined November 2008
Our briefing this week, a team effort by many colleagues, looks at the Russian threat to Europe, in terms of intent & capacity. How long would it take Russia to prepare for a war—and how much does that depend on the sort of war it might want to wage?
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Backpedalling furiously, I see. Only the UK & France had proposed anything approaching scale of 20k troops, so I don't see how Vance would be referring to anyone else. But let's take smaller states. Denmark & Estonia took same casualties per capita as America in Afghanistan.
This is absurdly dishonest. I don’t even mention the UK or France in the clip, both of whom have fought bravely alongside the US over the last 20 years, and beyond.
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I think this shows unequivocally that he’s not reading his intelligence briefings. This is a bizarre description of the Kursk situation.
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This is possibly the most astonishing thing I've read from the last week. DOGE re-writing air traffic control. DOGE gutting USAID & raiding its SCIF. DOGE hoovering up OPM. All of it madness. But this one is worse.
sorry how would this story be different if America was being run by Chinese spies
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Absolutely incredible. The Trump admin accidentally adds the editor of the Atlantic to a Signal group. Then Pete Hegseth sends him details of the US strikes on Yemen hours ahead of time incl. "precise information about weapons packages, targets & timing"
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Alarming. 'Within minutes after DOGE accessed the NLRB's systems, someone with an IP address in Russia started trying to log in, according to Berulis' disclosure. The attempts were "near real-time," according to the disclosure.'
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Being wounded in combat while black is now “DEI woke shit”.
The DoD has removed the article on Charles Roger's Medal of Honor. He served in Vietnam, and despite being wounded three times in battle, rallied his troops and led them to victory in defense of Support Base Rita. Nixon presented his Medal. The url is changed to "deimedal"
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A few points in response to the vice president. - I’ve been writing on this war for three years. I (and my colleagues) have never been afraid of candidly reporting on Ukraine’s deficiencies in firepower & manpower. That hasn’t always made us popular. - Numerical disadvantages.
Behind the tough guy language, there is no argument here. What's the firepower advantage of the respective parties to the conflict? Manpower? How might that change with further NATO action, and how are you proposing to change it?. As it turns out, I'm right and Joshi is wrong,.
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Staggering levels of corruption being normalised in the American government. Bribery is going to be the way to get things done.
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It will never stop being funny that a war launched to capture Kyiv in a few days has resulted in an attempted insurrection by the presidential caterer.
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This is master negotiating. He really has Putin on the ropes. One more unprompted unilateral concession and Putin will surely crack.
Donald Trump calls for Russia to return to G7.
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I can’t emphasise enough how the administration is filling up with cranks and fruitcakes. Here is the Pentagon’s new deputy press secretary, for example.
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Hard to describe this as anything other than a major assault on rule of law.
Message to the whole FBI workforce from Acting Director Brian Driscoll:
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Worth stating simply what’s happening. An American government is launching a full-scope political and economic assault on an ally repelling an ongoing invasion to compel them to terminate martial law, hand over minerals to America & accept a ceasefire without security guarantees.
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‘Elon Musk’s …Grok was malfunctioning on Wednesday, repeatedly mentioning “white genocide” in South Africa in its responses to unrelated topics. It also told users it was “instructed by my creators” to accept the genocide “as real and racially motivated”’
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We now have:.- NYT citing an Indian official on three downed planes.- Reuters citing local gov't sources on three crashed jets, pilots in hospital.- The Hindu citing an Indian gov't official saying at least three crashed jets.These would be heavy losses for the Indian air force.
NYT: "One Indian official confirmed the crash of three aircraft, but cautioned that the reasons were not clear. Two other Indian security officials confirmed reports that some Indian aircraft had gone down, but would not elaborate on the details".
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This is bullshit. “Russians have a massive numerical advantage in manpower and weapons in Ukraine, and that advantage will persist regardless of further Western aid packages.”.
This is moralistic garbage, which is unfortunately the rhetorical currency of the globalists because they have nothing else to say. For three years, President Trump and I have made two simple arguments: first, the war wouldn't have started if President Trump was in office;.
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US: Europe has to stand on its own feet.Europe: proposes to stand on own feet.US: no, not like that.
But let’s be direct: there are many countries who are volunteering (privately or publicly) support who have neither the battlefield experience nor the military equipment to do anything meaningful.
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Hegseth’s lack of experience is already showing. Publicly makes a series of pre-emptive concessions prior to the most important negotiations in many years, and then has to publicly explain that he had no authority to say any of those things.
BREAKING: @SecDef walks back his statement yesterday that a negotiated settlement is not likely to end with Ukraine in @NATO: "These negotiations are led by @realDonaldTrump. Everything is on the table. In his conversations with Vladimir Putin and Zelensky, what he decides to.
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Striking photo which shows where the power lies in European security.
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France acknowledges the loss of an Indian Rafale. According to the images circulating, which appear to be original, it may have been the first of 36 Rafale that entered service in the Indian air force. Next question is whether it was hit by a Chinese PL-15 missile.
New: A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat. Pakistan claimed earlier.
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A sad moment. “On Wednesday, the Washington-based magazine [National Geographic] that has surveyed science and the natural world for 135 years … “aid off all of its last remaining staff writers.” Had 12 million subscribers at peak in 1980s.
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A day later, I am genuinely marvelling at the fact that one of the most pro-Ukrainian officials in the Trump administration thought it was a good idea to publicly describe the intelligence cut-off as akin to hitting a mule in its face with a piece of wood to get its attention.
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Interesting history from @JDVance here, maybe I hallucinated the 1,000 or so non-American NATO ally troops who died in Afghanistan.
Bad news for Starmer and Macron. Vance confirms the only US security guarantee in Ukraine will be the mineral deal. He also plays down British & French peacekeeping troops as “20k troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years”.
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“Wealthy Chinese investors are quietly funnelling tens of millions of dollars into private companies controlled by Elon Musk using an arrangement that shields their identities from public view”
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Back to square one. Trump abandons his own ceasefire demands without a whimper. US peace proposal presented in Paris cast aside. No hint whatsoever of pressure on Russia to soften draconian demands. Dangles a giant carrot (trade, implicitly end to sanctions) but offers no stick.
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The Zoom call from hell.
It looks like Putin and Shoigu want to centralize the PMC's under their command. All voluntary fighters who are fighting for Russia have to sign a contract with the Russian Federation as of 1 July 2023. This also applies to Wagner, led by Prigozhin. Shoigu pulls the strings.
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Ukraine’s offensive is going so badly that [checks notes] Russia might be forced to use nuclear weapons. Sometimes you wish the propaganda had a tad more finesse.
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“Russian regions will soon have the authority to establish their own private military companies and arm them.”. Feudal historians:
Russian regions will soon have the authority to establish their own private military companies and arm them, according to the proposed amendments being rushed through the State Duma. 1/5.
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Completely incoherent. Argument appears to be: American defence of Europe is too expensive, therefore US needs to annex, govern & further militarise a European island, in the process destroying the alliance that forms the basis of collective defence in the High North & Europe.
These people want to turn Europe into a permanent protectorate. The problem: if it was ever a good idea, it is simply not sustainable with $2 trillion in annual deficits.
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One of the most ill judged speeches at Munich for many years. Europe doesn’t need lessons on democracy from the people hounding judges.
After Vance gave speech chiding Europeans for policies to curb hate speech & disinformation, the White House emailed it was banning the AP from the Oval Office & Air Force1 for not using ‘Gulf of America’
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This is really serious. America threatening Canada not only with Five Eyes expulsion & border changes but also military cooperation (continental air defence is joined at hip) & “water”. The US is currently a major national security threat to Canada.
Canadian Foreign minister Joly tells Victoria on @BBCNewsnight says threats to Canadian independence “are not a joke” when Trump officials talk to them they say military cooperation and water put on table “they’ve been threatening us of different things”…
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There is a non-zero chance that Trump decides to unilaterally seize Canadian territory or to annex Greenland. It would be a mistake to treat these threats as idle boasts or jokes. Neither Canada nor Denmark are treating them as such.
TRUMP: I THINK ANNEXATION OF GREENLAND WILL HAPPEN.
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America’s main negotiator with Russia appears to be completely captured by Russian propaganda. Witkoff: “there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.”
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Our new leader. @TheEconomist has always been staunchly Transatlanticist. We don't say this lightly: "Europe must prepare to be abandoned or extorted. Not to prepare for that could leave Europe vulnerable to Russia and to an increasingly hostile America"
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Completely agree. The US is extorting Ukraine in a shocking way, and it bodes badly for the sort of deal they might be seeking. Hard to trust their G7 & private rhetoric around “robust” “durable” peace when admin priority seems to be to suck up resources of a partner at war.
The only way to describe the US policy towards Ukraine right now is predatory. Twisting Ukraine's hand like this, especially with a surprise "deal", is basically extortion.
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Imagine having the resources of 18 different intelligence agencies at your disposal, and instead getting your news from - and actively amplifying - a far-right grifter who is also an RT columnist. The best case scenario is that the DNI is kept well away from any actual decisions.
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Absolutely repugnant. Trump repeats the libel that Zelensky started the war, and mocks him (“he’s always looking to purchase missiles”).
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Sadistic language from the White House, gleefully revelling in contempt for law, judges & individual rights. This is what incipient fascism looks like.
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Let’s be honest. Does anyone think that this president would honour Article Five? Presence of US military & nuclear sharing still has value to Europe, but its deterrent value is significantly reduced & falling. This is reckless, dangerous behaviour by the Trump administration.
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I think it is likely that we will see an Indian military strike on Pakistan in the coming weeks.
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Trump’s Ukraine policy is based on fabricated numbers ($350bn). His Russia policy is based on fabricated numbers (majority support for Russia in occupied territory). Why are we surprised that his trade policy is also based on fabricated numbers?.
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US appears set on crushing Ukraine capacity to force Zelensky to submit. Never mind that this is a bonfire of leverage v Russia, which has every reason to believe it can dictate terms or reject a ceasefire in the knowledge that Trump is likely to blame Ukraine. Inept negotiating.
Bad, bad news. Unnecessary, punitive, vindictive. "The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter."
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If Vance wants America to throw in the towel, he’s entitled to do so. But he doesn’t get to manufacture spurious arguments to justify his president’s increasingly deranged pronouncements about Ukrainian dictatorship & his desperation to normalise ties with Russia.
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Who could this possibly be aimed at?.
France signs a strategic partnership with #Denmark that reaffirms its commitment to Denmark’s territorial integrity and sovereignty #Greenland
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Off the charts level of institutional vandalism this past week. Kennan Institute long gathered superb Russian military expertise at a time when the subfield was not terribly fashionable. DOGE & co actively destroying DoD intellectual capacity in their mindless rampage.
Trump is eliminating @TheWilsonCenter, a stellar US foreign policy study establishment. Along with it goes the @kennaninstitute - one of the best Russia study institutions. I was fortunate to be a Kennan Fellow in 2017. Such a loss
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Ukraine is a mule that needs to be hit in the face, says @generalkellogg. This will definitely alleviate concerns about the direction and motivation of US policy, Gen. Kellogg. Great work!.
Kellogg on effect of US military aid and intelligence cutoff to Ukraine: "It's like hitting a mule in the face with a two by four, you know. You got their attention.".
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If you add a string of conditions to a proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, you have, in fact, rejected the unconditional ceasefire.
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“systematic erosion of Russian artillery has been a turning point: for the first time in the war, Ukrainian howitzers can deliver sustained fire … It also means that Moscow…has less artillery power to kill the infantry that emerge from” minefields
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‘a prominent German politician told me: “That was a direct assault on European democracy.” A senior diplomat said: “It’s very clear now, Europe is alone.” When I asked him if he now regarded the US as an adversary, he replied: “Yes.”…’
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Feels like we’re about a week away from the US offering a backstop to the Russian army in Kursk.
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So that’s a “no” to the ceasefire from Russia then. Clear enough.
KREMLIN: IN CONTEXT OF CEASEFIRE INITIATIVE, PUTIN SAID THERE MUST BE A STOP TO UKRAINIAN MOBILISATION AND ARMING OF UKRAINE.
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The level of casuistry from JD Vance is extraordinary. Over the weekend, fresh from the Zelensky ambush, Trump was playing golf & Vance was skiing. Meanwhile British, French and European officials were working flat out to fix their mess & build a European proposal for guarantees.
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Important to never allow these dangerous, grotesque threats to be normalised. They are threats to EU & NATO territory and if he was ever tempted to act on them it would have disastrous consequences for the Western alliance.
Trump on Greenland: "Denmark is very far away. A boat landed there 200 years ago or something and they say they have rights to it. I don't know if that's true. I don't think it is, actually . we really need it for national security . maybe you'll see more and more soldiers go
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Bizarre to see people draw sweeping conclusion from a few images. They suggest poor tactics. But could also indicate bad luck. One US armour officer said to me: if his battalion had to breach complex obstacles, mines, he’d expect 25%-plus casualties—“if everything went right”.
Some people are drawing some very big conclusions from a few videos and photos of less than one company group of damaged / destroyed AFVs… as predicted. Ukraine should just throw in the towel now right.
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Are security clearances a thing any more? Foreign intelligence agencies would love to know.
NEW: Top USAID security officials put on leave after DOGE officials showed up last night demanding entry. Threatened to call US Marshals, looking to access to security systems, personnel files and classified information, sources tell @jmhansler & me
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Secretary of State aggressively and publicly insulting allies on behalf of Elon Musk. “Say thank you.” Marco Rubio and Mike walz will not save us.
Just making things up. No one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink . And say thank you because .without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now.
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Bad, bad news. Unnecessary, punitive, vindictive. "The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter."
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Rare bit of good news. US aid & intel back on.
JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — US agrees to immediately lift pause on military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine following talks in Saudi Arabia.
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Horrific even by the depraved standards of this war. ‘The two men [Ukrainian soldiers] had been savagely beaten. Then the drunken Russians castrated them with a knife…The Russians told them, ‘We are doing this so you can’t have kids.’ To me this is genocide.”’.
We heard from a source in the Ukrainian government this was happening last year. "Hundreds" of prisoners of war had been returned, alive, but castrated. We didn't report this at the time, as it was deemed it could add to the trauma the men had suffered.
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Pretty sensible. “Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the U.S.-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers, Defence Minister Bill Blair said late Friday”
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“Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just as Washington aligns with Moscow in seeking to lever the Ukrainian president out of his job.”
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With proper allied backing, the US & Europe could ensure Ukraine has a long-term advantage in lethality. That would in turn ensure that the impact of Russia’s population advantage is not as severe as it need be. Ukr of course has to get mobilisation right- no question.
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Every single week, Trump has systematically undermined the negotiating leverage of both America and Ukraine- slandering Zelensky, grossly exaggerating Ukrainian weaknesses, fabricating history to suit his one-sided desperation for a settlement.
Trump says "we are very close to a Deal" on Ukraine but blames Zelensky for holding it up by refusing to acknowledge Russia's annexation of Crimea. He appears to suggest Crimea is part of whatever deal the US may have already agreed with Russia.
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Imagine being a NATO ally repelling an invasion. The Trump admin will try & topple your government while you remain at war. Good lesson to learn now.
“Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just as Washington aligns with Moscow in seeking to lever the Ukrainian president out of his job.”
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Absolutely remarkable things to be hearing from a soon to be German chancellor. This “step by step independence” will be far more difficult, painful and dangerous for the UK than for almost any other European state, though.
Merz: „Absolutely no illusions“ about Trump. Goal needs to be step by step.independence from a US who „pretty much no longer cares about fate of 🇪🇺“. „Unclear whether we will still speak of NATO in present shape“ by time of June summit or we need to come up with 🇪🇺alternative.
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Excellent interview with a Ukrainian colonel who commands the 43rd artillery brigade. "Q: How long does one Mavic last?"."A: For us – about a month, in the infantry – half a day.".
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Imagine visiting Kyiv and having the gumption to say this: “There are offensives on both sides…they must be de-escalated.”.
Briefing members of the media on conclusion of peace talks between the African Heads of State and Government and President Zelenskyy in Kiev, Ukraine. #AfricanPeaceMission
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An admin throwing away all its leverage. "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, according to three people familiar with the matter."
EXCLUSIVE: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions.
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Bear in mind that this (perhaps partial) intelligence cut off occurs AFTER Zelensky issued a de facto apology to Trump, which Trump publicly accepted. If Trump wanted Ukraine to lose and Russia to win, it would be hard to see how his actions would be much different right now.
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The disturbing bit isn’t that he thinks or posts this- that’s unsurprising. It’s that this is what the US director of national intelligence is consuming. This is the person she amplified just yesterday.
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Seriously disturbing. “"We need Greenland for international safety and security. We need it. We have to have it," Trump told podcaster Vince Coglianese. "I hate to put it that way, but we're going to have to have it."”
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“He must tell the British public if this means we are now at war with a nuclear power.”.Easy one, the answer is no. Hope that helps, Jeremy.
The Prime Minister should make a statement to Parliament, immediately, to confirm whether UK missiles have been fired into Russia. He must tell the British public if this means we are now at war with a nuclear power, what risk this poses to people in Britain, and why this action.
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General views from Munich.- No indication that Trump team has a plan.- Broad concern over US posture in Europe becoming part of a Ukraine deal.- Fear that Trump might visit Moscow on Victory Day.- Scepticism about feasibility of European troops in Ukr, esp impact on NATO defences.
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Excellent stuff. “Starmer announces that the UK government will allow Ukraine to use £1.6bn of UK export finance to buy more than five thousand air defence missiles. He says these will be made in Belfast, creating jobs in the UK's defence sector”
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Good old verified accounts offering solid verified information here.
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I hadn’t realised there was a former Tory MP serving in Ukraine’s armed forces.
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“Kyiv has been holding some 20 brigades back from the fighting and training them to break through Russian lines and hold any ground taken. The hope in Kyiv is that when its offensive begins, Russian forces will be depleted from their assault on Bakhmut”
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If you were the Kremlin, why would you make any concessions right now? You have every incentive to demand it all: land, sanctions relief, demilitarisation, neutralisation & no troops in Ukraine. If it collapses, Trump likely to blame Ukraine anyway, allowing continuation of war.
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This is shocking. ‘The US is opposing calling Russia the aggressor in a G7 statement on the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, threatening to derail a traditional show of unity, according to five western officials…’
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The For You tab: a parallel universe from 15 hours ago when the world was full of promise, Wagner was on the road to Moscow, and former racing car drivers with a blue tick had inexplicably strong views on the security of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
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It’s almost funny: Putin not even pretending that he’s interested in a diplomatic process, even one being pushed by a leader as obviously sympathetic to Russia as Ramaphosa.
(Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday interrupted opening remarks by African leaders seeking to mediate in the Ukraine conflict to deliver a list of reasons why he believed many of their proposals were misguided.
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The crucial point. The principal threat isn’t Wagner columns marching on Moscow. It’s the impact on Putin’s authority, regime cohesion and, of course, cohesion of Russian forces on the front lines.
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Nothing to see here. Just a Russian state-founded think-tank declaring Poland & Baltics to be fake states. "all three republics, in fact, are breakaway parts of the large Russian space . the question of the legitimacy of sovereignty is not resolved."
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Re-reading our interview with Zaluzhny in Dec. "I will simply state the facts. In order to reach the borders of Crimea. we need to cover a distance of 84km to Melitopol. By the way this is enough for us because Melitopol would give us a full fire control"
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Putin’s strategy is rational. Act as if you can fight on to strengthen your position in talks. Trump’s strategy - insult & browbeat your ally, insist they have no cards & signal desperation for normalisation - is irrational and stupid. It’s really as simple as that.
Putin’s response to a ceasefire offer: don military fatigues, head to embattled Kursk region and announce Russia will keep fighting till Ukraine is ousted from its land. Pretty clear message about what he thinks of Zelensky’s overture
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I feel we’re about three news cycles away from being told that the Captain Sir Tom Moore charity was funnelling money to the Wagner group.
EXCL: Captain Sir Tom Moore’s daughter received thousands of pounds via a family company for charity appearances. My @BBCNewsnight story:.
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Trump played like a violin as usual. Drops ceasefire demand painstakingly agreed with allies. Puts pressure back onto Ukraine. Woeful. “Donald Trump has demanded that Ukraine should "immediately" agree to direct talks with Russia in a bid to end the war.”
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This sounds innocent and normal. Nothing to see here. “President Donald Trump on Friday transported back to Florida with him boxes of documents that the FBI had seized from Mar-a-Lago after executing a court-ordered search warrant in August 2022.”
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