Jacob Smith
@jacobfhsmith
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Poli Sci Asst. Prof. Congress-watcher. Elections junkie. Fan of coffee, running, UK mysteries/politics. Swiftie. he/him rt≠ e, personal account, views my own.
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Joined June 2012
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It's all coming together:
1. House is 218-217.
2. Nobody can win a Speaker vote.
3. Boris Johnson's citizenship is returned.
4. Speaker Boris Johnson.
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Biden was born closer to Lincoln's presidency than his own.
What bit of historical perspective gives you an existential crisis? Mine is that Harriet Tubman was born in Thomas Jefferson's lifetime and died in Reagan's.
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@EricMGarcia
I've said this before, but Joe Biden was born closer to Abraham Lincoln's inauguration than his own.
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If you're mad at the Kasich endorsement of Biden, but said nothing about the Joe Rogan endorsement of Bernie, you're telling on yourself.
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For a brief moment, the Center Left is in power in the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, Scandinavia, Spain, and Portugal at the same time.
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@AdamParkhomenko
Please delete. Mitch McConnell suffered from polio as a child which can have lifetime effects. This is callous and inappropriate.
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Stephen Breyer.
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Tim Ryan is younger than 95/100 current US senators. He's been in the House for 20 years. Just shows the difference between the two branches.
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Our current president doesn't even speak one!
@ananavarro
@PeteButtigieg
Oh my gosh...Mayor Pete speaks French really well. Expressing his sympathies en francais.
When was the last time we had a truly bilingual President? Maybe never.
Buttigieg speaks like eight languages.
Me: I've got all the feels.
Also me: Focus on the issues!
#maddow
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America should do this too, except not cap at 20,000.
#BREAKING
Canada to accept 20,000 Afghan refugees, prioritizing the most vulnerable women leaders, human rights defenders, journalists, religious minorities, LGBTQ+, and families of already resettled interpreters
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Alaska is > 17% of US land area, so if Mary Peltola wins, Dems will more than double their geographic footprint! Every other district they hold could fit inside AK-AL!
Fact: next year, Dems will represent 51% of all House seats but just 16% of the nation's land area, the smallest geographic footprint of any majority in modern history.
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@EricMGarcia
Every Democrat to serve as a US Senator from Vermont has appeared in a Batman movie.
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Remember this the next time someone tells you Joe Manchin is no different than a Republican.
MANCHIN on NO vote:
“Mitch McConnell’s proposal fails miserably at protecting the people most impacted...it is focused on providing billions of dollars to Wall Street and misses the mark on helping the West Virginians that have lost their jobs through no fault of their own."
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UNC in-person instruction didn't even last a full Scaramucci.
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In 2010 I saw Rashida Tlaib speak at a progressive conference in Michigan and was instantly impressed. I no longer recognize what she's become.
BREAKING: At a
@BernieSanders
rally in Iowa tonight, a leading Sanders’ surrogate
@RashidaTlaib
led the crowd in booing
@HillaryClinton
.
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It is likely his last term. His replacement will make him look like AOC by comparison.
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Good night for the AOC-Manchin wing of the Democratic Party.
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@DashaBurns
Why do you feel the need to keep mentioning the close captioning and exoticize Fetterman's disability? There's only one person who I am concerned cannot do the job after this interview and it isn't the LG.
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President Harrison's record of fewest days served remains in tact for another presidency.
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It's Jim Clyburn's Democratic Party and we're lucky to be in it!
.
@WhipClyburn
helped get Biden the nomination. Then he helped get Biden to pick Marcia Fudge as HUD secretary. Then he helped
@ShontelMBrown
win the special election to succeed her.
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If Warnock, Shapiro, Whitmer, and Kelly all win, that's a strong future POTUS/VPOTUS bench heading into 2024/28.
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People who in retrospect are probably glad they lost House elections:
- Jon Ossoff
- Kathy Hochul
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@JoshMandelOhio
@IlhanMN
@RashidaTlaib
.
@IlhanMN
and
@RashidaTlaib
represent the promise of America. That people of all religions, races, and groups can be represented in our government.
The anti-Islam rhetoric you use in your campaigns is anti-American.
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John Kasich has publicly supported the Democratic nominee for President more times than Nina Turner in the past two presidential elections.
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Manchin's been voting no a lot recently.
He's running.
Senator Manchin (D-WV) voted Nay.
Senator Scott (R-SC) did not vote.
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At 1:06 PM 5 years ago, I firmly believe the course of history changed with this letter.
FBI Dir Comey letter to congressional committee chairs re discovery of "new emails...pertinent to the investigation"
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I'd like to hear zero about you forever.
I’d like to hear zero about Afghan refugees until we get every single American out first.
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The Sinema Cycle:
1. A headline/tweet mischaracterizes her position on something.
2. I point this out, urge people to read beyond headline, and tell people she will vote with Dems.
3. I lose 15 followers.
4. Sinema votes with Democrats.
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Nobody:
Ohio, November:
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Term limits are bad.
If you're a political scientist, what's the one thing you'd want journalists reporting on your sub-field to know?
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Nobody should be surprised when Democrats expand the Court in response.
New: Sen. Lamar Alexander issues his statement “No one should be surprised that a Republican Senate majority would vote on a Republican President’s Supreme Court nomination, even during a presidential election year."
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It's surreal to watch journalists still deny the role of the Comey letter(s) in electing Trump, given evidence presented by
@NateSilver538
and others.
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Abortion rights are *very* popular in Montana and Alaska. In 2014, Pew had support for abortion rights in all/most circumstances at 56% in Montana and 63% in Alaska.
I don't think Bullock or Gross is necessarily in worse shape than yesterday for one reason. AK and MT are fiercely independent states and those type of states tend not to get caught up in the Washington BS
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Every KS GOP nominee since 1932: No GOP candidate can lose a KS US Senate Election.
Kris Kobach: Hold my drink.
2020 Kansas Senate GE:
Barry Grissom (D) 52% (+10)
Kris Kobach (R) 42%
@NRSC
Internal Poll 6/9-11
#KSsen
@KrisKobach1787
@BarryGrissomKS
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There are two people serving in federal office today who were colleagues of Walter Mondale in the Senate: Pat Leahy and Joe Biden.
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@JoshMandelOhio
@IlhanMN
@RashidaTlaib
Article VI, Clause 3 "...no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."
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Cenk was alive for the 1980, 2000, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections, the 1991 LA gubernatorial election, the 2010 MA Senate election, the 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018 midterms. But apparently he thinks a congressional primary in May of 2022 is more important than all of those!
The
@ninaturner
race is most important of my lifetime. So I'm going to put in $25K to
@RebellionPac
, which is significantly painful for me, but we must win! Please chip in whatever you can to match that number. We're going to have super hard hitting ads:
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Nina Turner couldn't crack 40% in Ohio. John Kasich got over 60 and left office with a positive approval rating with *Democrats.*
"A Democratic presidential campaign that would give one minute of airtime to John Kasich over Sherrod Brown or Nina Turner, or hell, LeBron James, is one that wants to win the endorsement of the National Review, not the state of Ohio." —
@ElieNYC
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@KenJennings
Maybe we should also boo Bernie Sanders for not dropping out once it was clear that HRC would win the nomination.
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The most important election in Ohio in 2020. If Dems win both seats, they will have a majority on the Court going into the 2020 redistricting cycle.
Democrat
@JenniferBrunner
, former secretary of state, announces run for Ohio Supreme Court with its political control on the line.
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Joe Manchin is the most liberal senator West Virginia will have for the foreseeable future.
Can we get an actual Democrat to play the role of West Virginia Democratic Senator? --Asking for everybody.
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Imagine being Terry McAuliffe and waking up to this news.
BREAKING: US economy added back 531,000 jobs in October – beating expectations and a big rebound from September.
Unemployment rate falls to 4.6 (down from 6.3% in Jan.)
**The US has recovered ~80% of jobs lost during the pandemic**
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Just saw a poll with Biden approval at 56%(!)
Bonkers Fox poll that finds voters agreeing with every Biden criticism (inflation! Taxes! Deficit!) while his approval rating moves up from 54% to 56%
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Nobody can take this night from Lauren "Bubba" McDonald.
If there's one possible consolation prize for Republicans, Lauren "Bubba" McDonald, Jr. (R) is leading Daniel Blackman (D) 51%-49% in the runoff for Public Service Commissioner District 4.
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*Mitch McConnell, not Congress.
The House passed bills multiple times.
The fact that Congress did not pass stand alone bills to get Americans checks during this pandemic is an absolute disgrace.
And fuck your "that's not how it works" bullshit.
I know how it fucking works and I know what's possible.
They just don't give a fuck.
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The founders never intended for Ohio to be a state.
The founders never intended for Washington DC to become a state.
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Rep. Liz Cheney and I disagree on nearly every major issue. But she deserves credit for saying, "I will not sit back and watch in silence while others lead our party down a path that abandons the rule of law and joins the former president’s crusade to undermine our democracy.”
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Bad take. Low congressional pay just keeps the revolving door with K Street moving. As dumb as term limits.
I was elected to serve you, not myself. And I certainly wasn’t elected to give myself a raise. That's why I bucked both parties by helping to kill a proposed pay hike for Congress this year. Its time to balance our budget and tackle our $23 trillion nat’l debt, not raise our pay.
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Term limits empower lobbyists and generally make legislatures even more dysfunctional.
-Basically every political scientist ever.
The longer a person stays in office, the more power they obtain. Term limits will prevent politicians from turning office-holding into a career. Sign the petition if you want
#TermLimits
on Congress.
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Bill Weld is in the mid-teens in suburban counties in both PA and IN tonight.
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If I'm at the DCCC, I do two things now in
#CO03
immediately:
1) Drop like $100k in negative ads against Boebert immediately w/ future reservations lined up. Define her now & force the national GOP to spend $ they don't have to save her now.
(1/2)
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Tfw a C- Trafalgar Michigan poll with Trump +1 moves the 538 model back down to 69/30 even as three national polls that all have Biden with at least a 10 point lead. 🙄
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Shontel Brown has a 100% Biden score.
I’m no Nina stan. But if it were me, I would probably vote for the person who would be the most reliable vote for the Democratic agenda. In the case of OH-11, that does not appears to be Shontel Brown.
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If Stansbury indeed surpasses Haaland, it will be the first time that a seat formerly held by a Cabinet official swung towards the president's party since the special for CLE Mayor in 1962 to replace Anthony Celebreeze and the first House + swing since the Wilson administration.
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In terms of legislation, since 2009 Dem presidents have gotten 2009 stimulus, Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, ACA, Dodd-Frank, repealed DADT, Recovery Act, infrastructure.
GOP got....tax cuts.
What if - just once - Democrats were united and ruthless, like Republicans, and got some transformative legislation passed for the American people? 🇺🇸
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Democratic Senate pickup opportunities:
1) PA
2) WI
3) NC
----huge drop---
4) OH
---another drop---
5) FL
--another huge drop--
6) IA
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Sen Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) just announced that he will lose reelection by double digits.
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Imagine telling someone 10 months ago that Beto and Gillibrand would be out, Harris' campaign would be on life support, and Mayor Pete would be in striking distance in Iowa.
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When the Governor of West Virginia gets stuck in traffic, is that as obstruction of Justice?
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Maybe if the jogger had been white, you'd have responded differently.
Maybe the if Senate Parliamentarian made $7.25/hr they’d have ruled differently.
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A good reminder of why I am glad Shontel Brown won: in the past two days, her former opponent has retweeted 1)Andrew Yang and 2) people saying anti-Clyburn stuff, but not a peep on the OH GOP's new gerrymandering attempt as far as I can see.
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GOP, 2010
My midterms are over so I finally have time to make maps again!
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Suffolk/USA Today has Tim Ryan up 1, they had him down 2 earlier in the summer.
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This reminded me of a fact I was going to tweet out a few weeks ago: Since 2005, Kyrsten Sinema has been a legislator in four different bodies (AZ House, AZ Senate, US House, US Senate). She has never served in the majority in any of them.
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A majority of Democratic voters chose HRC. Bernie Sanders has perpetuated a conspiracy theory that has hurt the party and American democracy as a whole.
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That's...a lot closer than I'd have expected.
🚨New Iowa gubernatorial poll from Ann Selzer/
@DMRegister
:
Kim Reynolds (R-inc) 51
Deidre DeJear (D) 43
(612 LVs, Feb. 28-March 2, ±4%)
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This is honestly embarrassing and 538 should be embarrassed for this.
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🚨We are now in the 538 poll grade window.🚨
Polls with a median field date of today or later count towards poll grades.
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This speech is about giving people in places like Delaware County, Ohio permission to vote Democratic.
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If Bernie thinks Cenk is fit to serve in Congress, who would he choose as his VP?
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LeBron James' district...
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Echelon up with a ton of state polls, among the most interesting:
AZ- Mark Kelly +15, Hobbs +10
FL- Rubio +9, DeSantis +10
GA- Warnock +10, Abrams +1
KS- Laura Kelly +12, Moran +19
OH- Ryan +6, DeWine +19
PA- Fett +21, Shapiro +19
Governor (Texas)
Abbott (R) 48%
O'Rourke (D) 46%
8/31-9/7 by Echelon Insights (B/C)
813 LV
Arf arf! Can I have a treat?
Poll
#161183
#ElectionTwitter
Source:
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Biden: I'm getting a cat.
Major:
UPDATE: CT imaging showed that Biden does have small hairline fractures in his mid foot, per statement from Dr. Kevin O’Connor.
“It is anticipated that he will likely require a walking boot for several weeks.”
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I'm fine with Bernie delegates voting for Bernie and I'm fine with John Kasich speaking tonight, am I cancelled by everyone?
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POV: You are the last NY Gov to not face a scandal and calls to step down.
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Also has Biden up to 46 approve/53 disapprove, his best numbers since January.
Fox Sunday Poll? Well we have one. Dems up 44-41 in RV, Certain to vote shows GOP up 47-46, so LV is probably somewhere in between
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Ah, so he's going for the Full McSally.
Some relevant context here: I’ve already heard GOP strategists talk about recruiting Gardner to run against Bennet in 2022.
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The literal job of the DCCC is to help protect its members. If members don't feel that the DCCC will come to their aid, they will not feel an incentive to donate to the party, which then hurts the collective goal of keeping the majority.
The DCCC has never been so public about helping incumbents in blue districts fundraise against progressive primary challenges.
This is arguably worse than their Blacklist policy in terms of tipping the scales in primaries that should be left up to voters to decide.
@spmaloney
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Has DeWine up 17 and the Rs up for Supreme Court by 7-8 so not like it's this super Dem sample.
Senate (Ohio)
Ryan (D) 50%
Vance (R) 46%
10/20-10/23 by Baldwin Wallace University (B/C)
1068 LV
Arf arf! Did I do a good job?
Poll
#164230
#ElectionTwitter
Source:
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If you believe that Jason Lewis is within 3 points of Tina Smith, I have some beachfront property in St. Paul to sell you.
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John Kasich won reelection in Ohio with over 60% of the vote, carrying 86/88 counties.
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There are only two frontrunners who haven't been Democrats for their entire adult lives and neither is Pete or Biden.
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This actually isn't good, we don't want it to be a norm that you have to be wealthy enough not to accept a salary to serve in Congress.
I’m committing to taking no salary as a Senator and working to pass a bipartisan ban on stock trading by any sitting members of Congress.
I’ve dedicated my life to serving others. In the Senate, I’ll work for no one but you.
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Folks...
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I am begging people on the left to tone down the rhetoric about the parliamentarian. We've seen what's happened on the other side with irresponsible rhetoric. Please instead focus on changing the rules and electing more Democratic senators.
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