Amy Walter
@amyewalter
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Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Cycling enthusiast. Lover of all things summer.
Washington, DC
Joined June 2009
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THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAIL IN VOTING AND ABSENTEE VOTING!!!!!
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The campaign manager isn’t the problem. The problem is the candidate.
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Just told my 13-year old that I needed to watch the VP debate tonight.
Him: “Will it be more mature than the other one?”
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I’ve sat in on 2 focus groups of infrequent Dem voters this week who, as one woman said, want to see Biden & Dems “fight fire w/ fire.” If Dems want to get them out in ‘22, they need to show these voters fight and executive actions.
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If you want to understand America in 2020: “Hamilton” streaming on Disney on the same night that the President of the United States is accusing certain Americans of trying to erase American history.
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Rs had a huge structural advantage going into 2018. The fact that Ds may net 40 seats is a rout. Period. This argument that it’s not as bad as Obama’s 63 seat loss in 2010 is laughable.
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The reason Trump is losing women, independent voters, suburban voters is that they are exhausted by the chaos, the constant attacks and drama. He is leaning into all of that in this debate.
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Southern GOP Govs boasted about ‘stealing’ corporate jobs from high-tax/high regulation states. But, they are coming to realize that those blue state companies are bringing their cultural identity and their more liberal workforce with them.
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My broader point is this: perhaps the best way to celebrate John McCain’s life is for the media to talk more about John McCain’s life and spend less time on Trump and what he is or isn’t doing to celebrate it.
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Biden is ahead in MI by almost 150K votes and there has been zero evidence of fraud here or elsewhere. This kind of move does real and lasting damage to our institutions....
Deadlocked board in key Michigan county fails to certify vote totals by deadline
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I’d love to know how many people turned off this debate after the first 15 minutes.
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Kamala Harris is the rare pick who is both safe/conventional as well as historic.
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Lotta interesting data in the new NBC poll, most of it quite grim for Biden and Dems. This also jumped out: by a margin of 65% to 35%, parents more concerned about their child missing out on education than getting COVID at in-person school.
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My neck is still sore from whiplash in watching Rs who attacked Obama as ‘leading from behind’ and not being tough enough on our enemies, now bend over backward to rationalize Russian election interference as no big deal.
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I realize we live in an era of ‘LOL nothing matters’ (TM), but watching those who decried the ‘lawlessness’ of Obama and Clinton administrations, making excuses for Trump ‘process crimes ‘ is quite something to behold.
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This is the GOP Sec. of State of OH doing really good work on shutting down conspiracy theories about absentee voting. Hope to see more of this from SOS’s and election officials across the country this year & that local media picks up & shares.
There’s a video I’ve seen going around claiming absentee voting isn’t secure and that your party is printed on the return envelope.
THIS IS 100% FALSE
Here in Ohio, absentee voting is SECURE and PRIVATE with safeguards including ballot tracking at
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Still waiting for NFL to fine teams whose players commit domestic abuse.
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Dear young aspiring journalists, the reason for the outpouring of sadness and love for Cokie Roberts isn’t just b/c she was smart and really good at what she did. Her humanity set her apart. She didn’t sacrifice it for her job.
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News orgs MUST prepare themselves and viewers for realities of election night. One easy step: have Sec of States give estimate of absentee vote and explain how the counting works in their state. Transparency is going to be everything!
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They did, Tim. And, in some states, like PA., the state legislature refused to make changes to the law that would have allowed this process to have been completed more quickly.
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Best performing Ds this cycle:
1. Sinema (so far): 106% of ‘16 Clinton showing.
2. Beto - 104%
3. Abrams - 104%
4. Wolf (PA)- 100%
5. Whitmer (MI) - 99%
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Tonight marks the last for
@JudyWoodruff
anchoring at
@NewsHour
. There is no one classier, more talented and indefatigable. I feel so lucky to have been able to have spent 20 years of election nights, conventions and very cold caucus nights in IA w/ this legend!
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PA Gov. Wolf (D) proposes extended timeframe to begin processing ballots to 21 days before election. Currently ballots can’t be processed until morning of Election Day. This could help ensure PA vote counting doesn’t drag on thru election week.
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Bloomberg winning Pitkin Cty, CO, home of Aspen, is perhaps the most on-brand result of the night...
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Never been happier, or prouder to post a stamp on mail. A bittersweet but deserving honor, my friend.
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Reminder that Trump won CO-03, Rep. Boebert’s seat - w/ just 51.5%. This is not a safe seat like that of Gohmert or Taylor-Green or Mo Brooks.
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So the DNC twisted itself in knots to appease Bernie camp (new caucus rules, new superdelegates rules) and, what’d ya know, it’s done nothing to ‘unify’ the party...
I've got news for the Republican establishment. I've got news for the Democratic establishment. They can't stop us.
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A 57-43 vote is still quite damning. And, hard for R’s to call this a partisan sham.
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The sources who told us in the run up to the debate that Trump didn’t practice or prepare were, um, quite correct.
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To me one of the more interesting timelines in latest NBC/WSJ poll is Biden’s fav/unfav:
1/20 = -10
8/20= -6
9/20 = -2
10/20 = +2
The attacks on ‘socialism’ and ‘sleepy’ have not only NOT moved numbers away from Biden, but Biden’s actually gotten more popular since the summer.
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I'm trying to imagine what Trump would have done had May come to US, sat down with NYT and said "I think Trump's doing the wrong thing on NAFTA' oh and "I really like that Hillary Clinton, she would have been a good president."
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I never thought that the fact that I have never seen a Godfather movie would limit my ability to do my job.
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In the last four midterm elections, the ‘out’ party has won independent voters by double digits. Exit polls show Democrats winning indies by 1 pt. 49/48. This is why things are so close.
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The whole ‘tele-work’ model assumes a world where kids are at school or day care. Without that, it’s basically chaos w/ occasional access to email...
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If true, SCOTUS decision will be most acutely felt in GOV races in battleground states like AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI. May not have similar impact at federal level, but each/every state will now get to set its own rules on abortion access. Uncharted territory politically.
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Let’s be clear. This is an attempt to undermine faith in the electoral process. Period.
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In 2016, final NBC/WSJ poll showed Clinton up 44/40 (16% undecided/3rd party).
Final NBC/WSJ poll of 2020: Biden 52/42 (6% undecided).
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By this summer only things that will matter politically: vaccines & economy. Impeachment will not.
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This fight w/ the squad is exactly where Trump wants 2020 fought. The more media/Dems engage him, the better for him. All this fight does is re-polarize the partisans and leaves the up-for-grabs voters (who want to hear about bread-butter issues ) tuned out.
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Very excited to try and fill the very big shoes of
@CharlieCookDC
as Editor and Publisher of the venerable
@CookPolitical
! But, don’t worry, he’s not going anywhere, he’ll still be contributing to
@CookPolitical
, and writing weekly for
@nationaljournal
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Watching the
@ABC
Trump townhall my takeaway thus far: this is a president who still hasn’t adjusted to the fact that 2020 is not the year he wanted it to be.
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'Executive Time' sounds like something your dad says as he heads into the bathroom w/ a stack of magazines/newspapers ....
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The amount of attention national media is paying to Trump snub of McCain is disproportionate by a degree of 10 to amount voters care about this issue.
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A bunch of Ds - especially those who won in ‘18 - are likely shaking their heads as they watched Dem candidates for POTUS debate healthcare for almost an hour w/out spending any time on Trump/GOP repeal of Obamacare & pre-existing condition protection.
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The lasting legacy of Trump-ism will be its emphasis on grievance. The fighting isn’t a means to an end. It is the entire point.
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Feel like a broken record on this but stop looking at the margin between Trump and Biden and focus instead on Trump vote share. In both WI and PA he has been stuck at 44-45% for MONTHS. That’s the issue.
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Does anyone really think Trump is going to spend his war chest trying to play in primaries (esp. House primaries)? He has never been interested in spending $$ on anything/or anyone other than himself. Could he endorse/not endorse? Sure. But, spending his cash? Not likely.
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😢Look what just popped up in my Facebook memory feed. This was five years ago on the last day of
@NewsHour
conventions coverage. Miss you, Gwen. And ❤️ to the indefatigable
@JudyWoodruff
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Both this speech and Obama’s are a lot better w/out the raucous audience, silly hats and streamers.
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Watching Trump WH people going out on TV to scold media for ‘blaming’ Trump for NZ massacre, you’d have thought none of them were involved in calling Obama weak on terrorism bc he wouldn’t say ‘ radical Islamic terrorism’
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Serious Q Hugh. Are you saying the only way Trump can be impeached is if it relates to Russia collusion? Nothing else qualifies as impeachable offense? When did the measure of ‘high crimes/misdemeanors ‘ mean it has to relate to only one topic?
Cohen has already done his worst -and it is pretty bad- to
@realDonaldTrump
, setting up an impeachment count. Mow Manafort starts to think "What do I have to trade?" Neither have connected
@POTUS
to Russian collusion/conspiracy. Yet. But it is early. No collusion=no impeachment
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Ari. we literally spent all of 2017 focused on white men that voted for Trump.
The answer to this question is “yes”. The GOP does have a problem winning women voters. But I notice the press loves to ask this Q to the GOP. They seldom ask Ds if they have a problem winning male voters. The answer to that is also “yes”.
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Why aren't GOPers pushing back on Trump? Is it all a cult thing? A don't "poke the bear" thing? Yes, both play a part. But, the bigger reason is that Congress has absolutely no idea how to play its constitutional role (1)
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The fight over the wall and shutdown has done more to unify Dems that it has to 'rally' the Trump base.
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Just heard an ad with Mary Lou Retton pitching menopause supplements and I feel so very old.
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Woke up to dog poop all over the stairs, dropped my iPhone which cracked into a million pieces and now am eating peanut butter straight out of the jar. How’s your Friday going?
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We are only 30 mins into this thing but I don't think that this is going the way Democrats were hoping it would..
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Trump’s attacks on vote by mail aren’t meant to dissuade people from voting (in fact his campaign and other Rs are actively engaged in VBM organizing): it’s about sowing doubt about legitimacy of certain types of voters. Rural VBM = ok. Urban = illegitimate.
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You know what's not going to matter in Nov? These press v. Trump daily briefings/fights. What will matter: how many lives have been lost to COVID19 and whether a badly damaged economy is coming back...
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A very disciplined Trump tonight. Can this hold for 10-11 more days?
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When even Rudy is like, “whoa, whoa whoa let’s dial down the crazy here” it’s officially off the rails...
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I would be bursting with pride if that pitcher were my son.
This high school pitcher held off celebrating with his teammates so he could console his childhood friend instead.
(📹:
@b757fo_jim
)
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A prescient line from McConnell shortly before rioters broke into the Capitol: “I will not pretend such a vote will be a harmless protest gesture while relying on others to do the right thing.”
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Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) on MTP re: Qanon : ‘these are people who think Lord of the Rings is a documentary’
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On same day that McCarthy fails to win speakership on party-line vote, PA lawmakers elect Dem Speaker (who says he’ll ‘govern’ as an indie) w/ more than dozen GOP votes. And, in OH, Dem minority gives enough votes to GOP speaker who says he’ll work with D’s on new maps.
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WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT ALL THE GEN-Xers RUNNING?!
WE ARE A GENERATION TOO!
**skulks back to corner to listen to U2 Joshua Tree***
"It's not a bad thing to come from a different generation," Mayor Pete Buttigieg tells
@TheView
.
"We're the generation that grew up with school shootings as the norm...We're the ones that are going to be living through the impacts of climate change."
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This is correct. And, remember, Dems have control of Congress. There will be lots and lots of hearings for the next months. For those thinking about their vote on impeachment—this information is going to come out.
Based on today’s reporting, statements from lawmakers in both parties and comments from law enforcement, it really doesn’t seem like the public fully knows what happened inside the capitol on January 6th.
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Poll after poll showing Ds winning among voters who rate Biden “somewhat unfavorably.” That’s not happened before. In 5 midterms for which
@pewresearch
had data, "somewhat disapprovers" have never been this supportive of his party in the upcoming election.
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This is such an important point. For all the worry many Dems had early on about Biden’s propensity for ‘loose cannon’ behavior, he and the campaign have been incredibly disciplined. Also helping: lack of campaigning, rope-lines, etc. where Biden could stray off message.
At the moment, Biden is teaching a master class on letting your opponent's candidacy self-destruct.
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Roses Are Red
Violets are Blue
We’re in the middle of a pandemic, I’m spiritually and mentally depleted & not feeling all that creative. Sorry I didn’t get you anything for Valentine’s Day.
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THIS more than impeachment will define the 1st half of Biden’s term. Getting this right can do more to move the country forward than anything else. Showing Gov’t competence helps temper distrust in the institution.
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Today is a day when I have to remind myself over and over again about the best advice I received about being a parent: Grow the tree you have.
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If you want to understand what helps keep FL red:
“The fastest-growing U.S. metro area between the 2010 Census and 2020 Census was The Villages, FL, which grew 39% from about 93,000 people to about 130,000 people.”
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Nothing like owning up to a loss by blaming the guy you beat in a primary.
Katie Arrington: “We lost because Mark Sanford could not understand that this race was about the conservative movement - and not about him."
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Who exactly would be a “Cheney ‘24” voter? All the Democrats who are cheering her on now (and giving her $$) would hate to see her run as third-party and potentially siphon off votes from the Dem nominee.
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Since Jan. ‘19, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has asked GOP voters if they identify more as supporter of President Trump or as a supporter of the Republican Party. In almost every poll, more Republicans identified as supporters of Trump than of the Republican Party. 1/5
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Can anyone tell me why Dems can't make these hearings with officials involved in the Ukraine issue open? or, why we don't have any transcripts?
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Don’t care what you say AP, this is a hill I will die on!!!
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The Benghazi report/FBI report on the email server did not exonerate Hillary Clinton in the minds of many Rs (‘lock her up’)including Trump. Why would anyone expect that the Mueller report would or should do so for Trump?
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It is the "choose your own narrative" election.
D's win House (by looks like a pretty big margin)
R's on track to pad their SEN majority by 3-4.
D's win Govs in KS, MI, but fall short in OH and FL.
Where Trump stumped, R's won (FL, MO, IN)
Trump was toxic in suburbs.
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Incumbent Dems who signed "anti-Pelosi" letter sit in safe seats. They seem to be willing to make vulnerable frosh D's in tough CDs take a vote that could doom their chances of re-election. Also, if those vulnerable D's lose in 2020, D's likely lose the House.
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Looks like those special election results in 2017 and 2018 were Predictive. On average Democrats out performed by eight points in the special elections. Last night they won the national house vote by about nine points.
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I believe the best measure of a human is how they treat those who aren’t big and important as they are. Mark greeted interns and desk assistants w/ the same level of respect and interest as he did senators and presidents. He was, at his core, a good man. He will be missed.
I am heartbroken to share this..the
@NewsHour
’s beloved long-time Friday night analyst Mark Shields, who for decades wowed us with his encyclopedic knowledge of American politics, his sense of humor and mainly his big heart, has passed away at 85, with his wife Anne at his side.
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Trump's 'all base all the time' strategy worked in '16 in large part b/c there wasn't equal energy on Dem side. And, independent voters were breaking evenly. In 2018, the math is different. Motivated Ds + indies (esp women) anti-Trump.
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In 2016, Electoral College was decided by about 79K votes - In 2020 it was 42K votes. In ‘20, D’s held House by 30K votes. In ‘22, R’s won House by 6K votes. This is going to be a close race. No one is winning by 10pts. No one is winning by 5 pts. Accept it and move on.
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Big difference btwn 2 parties: D leaders tell Conyers/Franken resign, they do. R leaders tell Moore to dropout he says no, Trump endorses
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A big part of American identity/mythology is that sports are great equalizer, that merit on the field can transcend all other societal inequities. What the NFL kneeling & Serena penalties reveal is how flawed that theory is.
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Listening to Trump speech right now about the “cancel culture”.
This is a president trapped in 2016. It is no longer 2016.
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This picture captures paradox of modern politics. We long for decency & civility but also shun dynasties and status quo.
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I’d caution against making pronouncements of “realignment” for the electorate based on what’s happened over the last four years. SO much of the voting behavior/choice has been driven by opinions of Trump not policy.
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Is there some sort of rule that the annoying ‘fire detector needs batteries’ chirping can only happen between the hours of 2-4am? Can’t 10-11pm work?
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So, in conclusion: Biden won GA b/c it was a referendum on Trump. In run-off, R’s had the chance to make it a referendum on Dems/Biden (check and balance), but: 1) Trump refused to cede spotlight and made it all about him; 2) Biden/Dems didn’t give R’s any mistakes to focus on
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Trump's 'base-only' strategy can't win him MI, PA, WI again. D's now equally (or more) energized. Key swing demo in 2020 are the "ambivalent" voters who hated both Trump & Clinton in 2016.
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The last night of the convention would normally find me at a bar, celebrating the end of 2 grueling weeks. Tonight, I am celebrating alone, at home, while eating peanut butter straight from the jar.
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what should worry R's about PA-18 isn't that Connor Lamb was a unicorn (moderate, military, focused on CD & not Trump), but that there are lots of other D candidates w/ this profile running
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As I go to drop off another round shirts/blazers/suit jackets at the dry cleaner, I wonder if they have noticed others like me who, for the last 6 months have not brought in any pants - just tops.
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So, um, this is the plan then? Biden is wearing an ear piece and is on drugs. Got it. Definitely what swing voters in FL, AZ and NC have been telling us is their top issue.
Joe Biden agreed to a pre-debate inspection for electronic earpieces but just today he abruptly reversed his decision and declined.
He is also refusing to take a drug test.
What is going on?
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Mexico isn't paying for the wall in new NAFTA deal; Amazon isn't giving back $3B to NYC; tariffs on China aren't putting $$ into U.S. treasury.
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