@jacobfhsmith If there is a persistent Dem bias in polls for whatever structural reason its not impossible Trafalgar's strategy of (probably) hackishly adding support to R candidates will be relatively accurate going forward. But yeah it still feels weird to reward that.

@markovitisb They got lucky-- and were still quite wrong in the outcome in a lot of states-- and it's a shame to reward that.

@jacobfhsmith That is surprising. If I remember correctly, wasn't Trafalgar rated around a C+ by 538 prior to the 2020 election?

@Geoff07540485 Yes and that rating should continue.

@jacobfhsmith I mean it’s dumb but all that means is it’s got a consistent predictable bias.

@jacobfhsmith I should start a polling company that predicts Democrats sweep the midterm by Eleventy Billion Points and wait for 538 to inevitably rate me A-.

@jacobfhsmith I'd laugh too, but A+ ABC/Washington Post had Biden up by 17 in Wisconsin and Trafalgar had it even. Who was right?

@jacobfhsmith

@jacobfhsmith Trafalgar had Ossoff tied and Warnock +2 in the Georgia runoffs. The proof is in the pudding. They deserve their A- rating.

@jacobfhsmith what's funny is that if Trafalgar had any methodology beyond coming up with numbers daddy trump likes, they would be the premier pollster of 2020. for months they and RW ET were saying everyone was overestimating dem gains and they were right. they just can't show their work