Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
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Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter . Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
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Disclaimer: as has always been the case, the personal judgments offered by this account regarding election results are not official race "calls" and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cook Political Report, NBC News or any other entity.
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I've seen enough: in a huge victory for the pro-choice side, the Kansas constitutional amendment to remove protections of abortion rights fails.
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Biden just became the first presidential candidate in U.S. history to surpass 78 million votes.
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I've seen enough. Jon Ossoff (D) defeats Sen. David Perdue (R) in GA's other Senate runoff.
#GASEN
Democrats win control of the Senate.
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I've seen enough: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Herschel Walker (R) in the
#GASEN
runoff, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the Senate.
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I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in GA's special Senate runoff.
#GASEN
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BREAKING: Biden/Harris just became the first presidential ticket in history to surpass 80 million votes...
Biden 80,033,996 (51.0%)
Trump 73,878,907 (47.1%)
Prior to 2020, no ticket had ever hit 70 million.
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It's possible the margin for "No" in red Kansas will be a resounding double digits, a sign of just how unpopular overturning Roe v. Wade is nationally.
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I've seen enough. We're at a Biden 306-232 Electoral vote margin entering any recounts, and I've never seen a recount overturn leads of the magnitude Biden enjoys in AZ/GA/WI.
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Look guys, I've seen enough. Both Raphael Warnock (D) and Jon Ossoff (D) will win by margins comfortably exceeding GA's 0.5% recount threshold.
#GASEN
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Projection: today is the first day in history Americans have elected more than 100 women to the U.S. House of representatives.
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I've seen enough: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) wins reelection in
#AZSEN
, defeating Blake Masters (R).
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I've seen enough: the vote to recall CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) fails.
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Maine just reported its military & overseas ballots:
Biden 4,599 (80%)
Trump 838 (15%)
Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.16 million.
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Breaking: Biden's national popular vote lead just surpassed 6 million...
Biden 79,732,083 (51.0%)
Trump 73,731,087 (47.2%)
Biden/Harris have now won 10 million more votes than any presidential ticket in U.S. history.
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I've seen enough: Janet Protasiewicz defeats Daniel Kelly for Wisconsin Supreme Court. The result flips ideological control of the court from conservative to liberal, a huge victory for the pro-choice side.
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BREAKING: Biden's national popular vote lead just surpassed 7 million (4.5%)...
Biden 81,264,673 (51.3%)
Trump 74,210,838 (46.9%)
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It's time to start calling baseless conspiracies what they are: libelous attacks on the 500,000+ heroic poll workers & election administrators in every corner of the U.S. who pulled off a successful election amid record-shattering turnout and a global pandemic.
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At the moment, Biden is teaching a master class on letting your opponent's candidacy self-destruct.
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True story: the day before the election, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy told me that if Trump refused to concede, he and McConnell would eventually have to come out and issue a joint statement acknowledging the result.
In the end, McCarthy left McConnell twisting in the wind.
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I've seen enough: Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) has lost renomination to state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R) in the
#NC11
GOP primary.
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New: Philadelphia just reported 4.4k newly counted ballots...
Biden 4,056 (91%)
Trump 342 (8%)
Biden's statewide PA lead just surpassed 60k.
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Biden just crossed 10 million votes in CA, becoming the first presidential candidate ever to hit eight figures in any state.
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I've seen enough: Sen. Ed Markey (D) has defeated Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D) in the
#MASEN
Democratic primary.
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I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the
#NY19
special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.
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More people have now early voted in TX than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in TX in 2016.
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Look guys, I’ve seen enough. Putting “disputed” tags on blatant disinformation is woefully insufficient right now.
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Breaking: Philadelphia just reported almost 8k newly counted ballots...
Biden 6,628 (85%)
Trump 1,140 (14%)
Biden's statewide PA lead now up to 72,379 votes (1.1%), more than double the automatic recount threshold.
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At the end of the day, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy voted to object to both AZ and PA's electors after acknowledging multiple times to me there was no doubt as to Biden's victory.
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I've seen enough. Projection: Andy Beshear (D) has defeated Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in
#KYGOV
.
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Here's the story right now:
1. Black turnout looks, frankly, phenomenal.
2. Perdue/Loeffler are approaching Trump %s of the vote in a lot of deep red rural counties, but turnout there isn't anything special.
3. It's getting harder to see a path for either R, but esp. Loeffler.
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I've seen enough: in a victory for the pro-choice side, Ohio Issue 1, a measure to establish a right to an abortion in the state constitution, passes.
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BREAKING: the
@NBCNews
Decision Desk has seen enough. Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania and the White House, defeating President Donald Trump.
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After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff.
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Breaking: Biden/Harris just became the first presidential ticket in U.S. history to surpass 81 million votes.
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I've seen enough: Rep. Mary Peltola (D) wins reelection in
#AKAL
, defeating Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich (R).
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Fact: Biden's current margin of victory in Michigan is more than 13 times Trump's margin of victory there in 2016.
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I’ve seen enough: taking a politics break for a while.
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Breaking: Biden's popular vote lead just crossed 5 million (3.3%).
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I've seen enough: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) defeats Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (D) in the
#NY14
primary.
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Needless to say, tonight's results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022.
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I've seen enough. No path back for Trump in AZ.
Maricopa county has posted 13,143 ballots.
Breakdown:
Biden: 5,826 (44.3%)
Trump: 7,019 (53.4%)
Biden leads Trump in Arizona by 11,635 votes.
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Warnock's victory is pretty clearly going to wind up outside of Georgia's 0.5% recount threshold.
#GASEN
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New:
#CA47
Rep. Katie Porter's (D) lead over Scott Baugh (R) just expanded to 4,555 votes (2.3%). This one's not trending in the right direction for Republicans.
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I've seen enough: Andy Beshear (D) wins reelection in
#KYGOV
, defeating Daniel Cameron (R).
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If past is prologue, Georgia Republicans just handed Democrats their best turnout tool for 2022 & beyond.
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Tiny, rural Randolph Co., GA (59% Black) is at *97%* of its November turnout. It's going for Warnock by 13.2 pts and Ossoff by 12.8 after going for Biden by 9.2 pts in November.
This is a clear pattern now.
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I've seen enough: Rep. Katie Porter (D) wins reelection in
#CA47
, defeating Scott Baugh (R).
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Fact: when President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House.
Since then, 115 (48%) have either retired, resigned, been defeated or are retiring in 2020.
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Breaking: the U.S. just surpassed a record-shattering *156 million* votes counted...
Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%)
Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%)
Biden's popular vote lead is up to 5.9 million (3.8%).
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I've seen enough: in a major victory for the pro-choice side, Ohio Issue 1 (a measure to raise the threshold to pass a state constitutional amendment to 60%) fails.
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If you don't think Donald Trump could reemerge as a formidable candidate for the presidency in four years, you haven't been watching the last four+ years.
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Breaking: Donald Trump's share of the U.S. vote just fell to 46.9%. He's now failed to crack 47% in either of his runs for president (for perspective, Mitt Romney got 47.2% in 2012 and Hillary Clinton got 48.2% in 2016).
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When a source lies to you, they don’t deserve anonymity.
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In 2016, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and the presidency) by a combined 77,744 votes. Right now, Biden is ahead in those three states by three times that margin - 233,001 votes.
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Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go.
The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.
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I've seen enough: Democrats win control of the Virginia House of Delegates, flipping the GOP majority and giving them control of both chambers.
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I've seen enough: Democrats retain control of the Virginia Senate, blocking a trifecta for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
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This is some cold truth from
@AOC
. If NYC were in a swing state, its election administration would be a national outrage.
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Bottom line so far: I think Republicans have a turnout problem.
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I've seen enough: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) defeats Rep. Conor Lamb (D) in the
#PASEN
Dem primary.
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I’ve seen enough: Jamaal Bowman (D) has defeated 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D) in the
#NY16
primary.
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I've seen enough: Rep. Mike Levin (D) wins reelection in
#CA49
, defeating Brian Maryott (R).
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It's now virtually certain that Orange County, CA will be represented by zero Republicans in Congress in 2019. And, all of NJ will have only one.
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I've seen enough: Andrew Yang will not be the next mayor of NYC.
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BREAKING: Danica Roem (D) has defeated 26-year Del. Bob Marshall (R) in
#HD13
, becoming the first transgender person elected to VA's state legislature.
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I've seen enough: progressive Marie Newman (D) defeats pro-life, eight-term Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) in
#IL03
.
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Breaking: Philadelphia just finished counting what might be one of its final batches of votes...
Biden 10,170 (86%)
Trump 1,540 (13%)
Biden's statewide PA lead climbs to 81,597 (1.2%), almost double Trump's '16 margin of 44,292 (0.7%).
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Winning a gubernatorial race in a state Trump won by 30% would have to be considered a pretty terrific night for Dems so far.
#KYGOV
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I've seen enough: Melanie Stansbury (D) defeats Mark Moores (R) in
#NM01
special election to fill the unexpired term of Deb Haaland (D).
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I've seen enough: Andrea Salinas (D) defeats Mike Erickson (R) in
#OR06
. A critical Dem pickup in Oregon's newly added seat.
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New: Philadelphia posts newly counted ballots (that I think are the first of the provisionals to be counted??)...
Biden 3,728 (79%)
Trump 927 (20%)
Biden's statewide PA lead just surpassed 65k.
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New: Biden’s GA lead has climbed past 10k w/ assorted county updates.
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That Biden is delivering his entire speech in Grand Rapids with a mask on speaks volumes more than any remarks he's delivering, and he knows it.
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Update: as more Michigan counties have certified and reported to the Secretary of State, Biden's margin of victory (154,187) is now more than 14 times Trump's 2016 margin there (10,704 votes).
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The first heavily Dem rural county, Macon Co., is fully reporting:
Ossoff: +25.0
Warnock: +25.6
Biden (Nov.): +21.3
And turnout is at 91.8% of November levels. Possibly the single best piece of data for the Dems yet.
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I've seen enough: Rep. Jim Costa (D) wins reelection in
#CA21
, defeating Michael Maher (R).
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I've seen enough: Missouri voters narrowly pass constitutional Amendment 2 to expand Medicaid.
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Breaking: Kelly Loeffler rescinding her objection to certification of electors. Wow.
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I've seen enough: Rep. Greg Stanton (D) wins reelection in
#AZ04
, defeating Kelly Cooper (R).
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Republicans wouldn’t be slight favorites to win House control right now if they hadn’t been able to gerrymander far more states than Dems.
And, Dems wouldn’t hold the slight majority today if courts hadn’t struck down GOP gerrymanders in FL, NC, PA and VA in the last 7 years.
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So two things:
1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ &
#NE02
) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there
2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack
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Breaking: the Biden/Harris '20 ticket's popular vote margin (3.8627 points) just surpassed the Obama/Biden '12 ticket's popular vote margin (3.8597 points).
It's now the second largest popular victory since 1996.
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The Georgia hand count audit is complete and
@GaSecofState
is set to certify the 2020 result as:
Biden 2,475,141 (49.5%)
Trump 2,462,857 (49.3%)
Biden wins Georgia's (16 EVs) by 12,284 votes.
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Breaking: the U.S. just surpassed *155 million* votes counted and Biden's popular vote lead is up to 5.68 million (3.7%).
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Perdue's narrower defeat is especially bitter for Republicans, considering that runoff was for a six-year term, whereas Warnock will need to run again in 2022.
#GASEN
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Projection: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R) in
#AZSEN
. This thing has been over for a while.
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I've seen enough: Mayra Flores (R) defeats Dan Sanchez (D) in the
#TX34
special election, flipping an 84% Hispanic Rio Grande Valley seat red.
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I understand the desire to wait until every vote is reported, but these aren't "nail biters" or "dead heats."
#GASEN
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Democrats are the favorites in the Ossoff/Perdue race as well, which means they're currently favored for Senate control. Still a ways to go there.
#GASEN
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When you're losing the African-American vote by 71% in any state, you're...not competitive in a Democratic primary.
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I've seen enough: Glenn Youngkin (R) defeats Terry McAuliffe (D) in the Virginia governor's race.
#VAGOV
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I've seen enough: the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill passes the House and heads to President Biden's desk.
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Breathtaking: statewide, Texas just surpassed 80% of its total 2016 votes cast, leading the nation. And there's still more than a week of voting to go.
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Biden's AZ lead back up over 20k after winning latest Maricopa batch of 7k ballots 55%-44%. I'd consider Biden a pretty heavy favorite in AZ now.
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