Political Election Projections
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@Elections_Daily contributor Views expressed here are my own Retweets ≠ Support #BramnickForGovernor #NJPol #ET CENTRAL JERSEY EXISTS
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First 2024 Presidential Election Outlook, by me. Lots of personal thoughts here, tried to be as data-orientated as possible and less pundit-orientated.
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This doesn't get any less funny 4 years later
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We have four new polls from two new states from Fox News
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Inevitable
#NEW
: A bill has advanced out of committee in Delaware that would allow corporations the ability to vote in municipal elections held in Seaford, DE.
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Gas prices will fall again in 2024, according to GasBuddy projections, and Americans will spend $32 billion less
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This is a disaster for the Republican party. These results in NY-19 are not representative of a red wave year. At this point, we have to be seriously contending with the fact that this will be a neutral or even blue-leaning midterm, and the House is a Tossup.
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🚨 RATINGS CHANGE 🚨
If Roe v Wade ends up overturned we have the following ratings changes for the 2022 Elections:
Senate Control: Leans R --> Leans R
House Control: Likely R --> Likely R
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What we haven't talked much about is how Janet Mills absolutely demolished Paul LePage
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Brazil is capable of counting 120 million ballots in less than 3 hours. New York is incapable of counting 12 million ballots in 3 months.
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Democrats in 2016: "Look at the polling"
Democrats in 2018: "Look at the polling"
Democrats in 2020: "Look at the polling"
Democrats in 2022: "Look at the polling"
Democrats in 2024: "Polling is so broken"
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Lee Zeldin sacrificed his Congressional seat to save the GOP house majority
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Killing myself rn at "preserving democracy" being R +1
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BREAKING: Plan P000C0109 (Congressional Redistricting) passes in the Florida State Senate by a vote of 24-15 with unanimous Republican support
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🚨 Wisconsin Supreme Court adopts Republican Legislative Maps 🚨
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Mf votes like he represents the Idaho panhandle and somehow wins a Biden +12 seat
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This remains the most satisfying off-year election in the past decade
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This isn't even entertaining to watch anymore, this is just... sad. Democrats are about to be overtaken in the Miami-Dade EARLY vote
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I don't know if Twitter will be able to handle the complete meltdown that is inevitable on November 8, 2022
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BREAKING: At age 97, Former President Jimmy Carter, Oldest Living President, is having a great day.
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NEW FOX29 PENNSYLVANIA POLL
Mehmet Oz (R): 46%
John Fetterman (D): 46%
Josh Shapiro (D): 49%
Doug Mastriano (R):42%
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Let me introduce you to the absolute insanity known as 2010 Gubernatorial Control by party
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Elections in California be like:
"Kill all homeless people"
Yes: 55.74%
No: 44.28%
Statewide election:
Mao ZeDong (D): 61.9%
Charlie Baker (R): 38.1%
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Republicans will (probably) win the House but Kevin McCarthy better be preparing a huge gift basket for Lee Zeldin's tremendous performance which is evidently dragging a ton of Rs over the finish line
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2014: Senate polls underestimated Republicans
2016: Senate polls underestimated Republicans
2018: Senate polls underestimated Republicans
2020: Senate polls underestimated Republicans
2022: Trust me bro this time it'll be different
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To see Tom Kean Jr. and Jen Kiggans walk to victory while the likes of Lauren Boebert, Ryan Zinke, and Joe Kent struggling to win solidly Trump seats is just a periodic reminder that perhaps running good candidates is a better strategy than running bad candidates
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Instead of campaigning like hell in his reelection bid, Gavin Newsom was running ads in Florida trying to own Ron DeSantis or something and it might have cost Democrats a good 2-4 seats in the House
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No comment
This shtick was briefly funny but I assumed he would actually stop dressing like a slob. Really, it's very embarrassing.
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Lee Zeldin lost the Governor's Race by less than:
Mark Ronchetti
Doug Mastriano
Scott Jensen
Tudor Dixon
Bob Stefanowski
Paul LePage
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MASSIVE, EARTH-SHATTERING NEWS from Hawaii as Republicans seem poised to double their membership in the State Senate.
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This is New Jersey-level shit
Mass. Gov. Maura Healey nominates her ex-girlfriend to state’s highest court
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Kari Lake is probably going to win and I'm not sure it'll be particularly close either
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The timeline:
Democrats win 218-217 majority
Henry Cuellar indicted by FBI
TX-28 special election
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Writing is in the wall
CCM in NVSEN
Lombardo in NVGOV
Ralston crowned king
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Hearing reports of high turnout back home here in Jersey. Very good news for Dr. Oz
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Word on the street is that Nancy Pelosi plans to ban dying if Democrats win a 218-217 House majority
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BREAKING: The New York Times projects Democrats have held the House of Representatives, with 222 seats in their column
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Even Brian Fitzpatrick "only" won by 10%, just to give an idea of how bad the environment was for PA Rs
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Quinnipiac National Poll
Joseph R. BIDEN 50%
Donald J. TRUMP 44%
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Stick a fork into Blake Masters. He's toast
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Adam Laxalt will win Nevada and Georgia will be the Senate decider while Rs eeke out a 218R majority in the house because frankly that's the timeline we deserve at this point
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BREAKING: As caucus sites close, Pete Buttigieg declares victory in the 2024 Iowa Caucuses with none of the votes having been reported
"Iowa, you have shocked the nation!"
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Ron DeSantis just acts like Charlie Crist doesn't exist or something. No mention about him in public statements or any of his tweets.
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POV: What GOP leadership is currently searching
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DeSantis up double digits with mostly early vote and no panhandle, this is a bigger massacre than expected
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First numbers out of Dearborn, MI
Uncommitted 73%
Biden 24%
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Tester's chances of winning have just increased by a not insignificant amount
MONTANA. Kalispell City Councilman Sid Daoud (Libertarian) enters race vs US Sen Jon Tester (D).
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Republicans won 51.4% of the two-party votes for Congress and 51.0% of seats in 2022
It is increasingly clear that Extreme MAGA Republicans secured a House majority based on unlawfully gerrymandered congressional maps.
We will make sure the American people decide who represents them in Congress.
#VotingRightsAct
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It may not come as a surprise that Sandwich is one of Christie's best towns tonight
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Wake up babe, your daily Madison Cawthorn scandal just dropped
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Yes because that's her job
CONFIRMED: Katie Hobbs' office emailed Mohave County supervisors threatening them with up to two years in prison if they didn't certify their election results.
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Haley is running 40% ahead of benchmarks with the votes tallied so far... big things happening folks
Some rough (especially in the very small towns) Haley benchmarks tonight; if she's anywhere near numbers like these, it would signal a genuinely close race. The more she falls short, the more the result will resemble the polling we've been seeing.
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Glenn Youngkin has no chance of being reelected Governor in 2025 with these numbers
The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle.
By our estimates, the Democrat is on track to win by 45 points, compared to 30 points in '22 and 36 points in '20
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Tomorrow is make or break for Haley's campaign
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Begging people to stop putting "BREAKING" in front of everything
BREAKING: Republicans have a great chance to retake the Senate in 2024, per the WSJ.
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Ron Johnson probably would've lost if Democrats didn't nominate Mandela Barnes
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NEW FOX NEWS POLLS from Georgia and Pennsylvania
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BREAKING: Pete Buttigieg declares victory in the Arizona Governor's Race
"Maricopa County, you have shocked the nation!"
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So the early closings
Blue wave (somehow) watch: FL-13/FL-15/FL-27
Red house watch: VA-02
Red wave watch: NH-01/VA-07/IN-01
Red tsunami watch: VA-10
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(2024 has 366 days)
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People be like:
"Do you want low taxes"
Support: 94%
Don't Support: 1%
Undecided: 5%
"Do you want government benefits"
Support: 95%
Don't Support: 2%
Undecided: 3%
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Roanoke College poll (VA)
(Change from February)
Youngkin Approval
Approve: 53% (+3%)
Disapprove: 35% (-6%)
Biden Approval
Approve: 37% (-4%)
Disapprove: 57% (+4%)
May 16-26, 648A
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I might just have the mandate of heaven
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Despite Reagan's landslide victory, Republicans only gained 1 Senate seat in the 1984 election and lost 3, a net loss of 2 Senate seats as a result.
But oh boy that one seat they gained......
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New New Hampshire POLL from St. Anselm
SENATE
Don Bolduc (R): 48%
Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 47%
GOVERNOR
Chris Sununu (R-inc): 54%
Tom Sherman (D): 37%
CD-01
Karoline Leavitt (R): 51%
Chris Pappas (D-inc) 45%
CD-02
Ann Kuster (D-inc): 50%
Robert Burns (R): 42%
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Lee Zeldin and Ron DeSantis emerging as heros of the Republican party
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I have officially registered as a Democrat for the 2024 elections
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BREAKING: The 2023 North Korean Local Election Results have come in
Fatherland Front (Incumbent Party): 99.9%
Reject/Others/NA: 0.1%
Voter Turnout: 99.6%
This marks the worst result for the Fatherland Front in almost 70 years, along with surprisingly weak voter turnout.
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Brian Kemp is running to be the Governor of Georgia. Stacey Abrams is running to be the Governor of resist libs
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OPINION: The Iowa polls being spot on is bad news for Joe Biden
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Fetterman +21 will go down as one of the greatest polls of all time
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Pima County batch of votes in
#AZ06
12,802 ballots reported
55.96% for Engel
44.04% for Ciscomani
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Rick Scott margins of victory:
2010: 1.1%
2014: 1.1%
2018: 0.1%
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Haley wins 100% of the votes in Dixville notch. All 6 registered voters cast a ballot for Haley.
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I'll eat this phone if Joe Biden wins Black voters by 41% or less in 2024
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Amusing how the Trump world thinks building the smallest tent possible is a winning strategy
🚨 Trump threatens donors for Nikki Haley. "Anybody that makes a contribution...will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp."
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The year is 2052. Mike Garcia is serving his 16th term, and redistricted into downtown Los Angeles. Democrats swear he is DOA this time around.
Decision Desk HQ projects Rep. Mike Garcia (R) wins re-election to the U.S. House in California’s 27th Congressional District.
#DecisionMade
: 9:01pm EST
Follow more results here:
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For all the crap Hung Cao has gone through on ET Discourse, the dude put up a very respectable performance
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Western Reactions Rating:
UK: A
France: B
USA: B
Germany: F
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At the end of the day, the bluest seat held by a R will be NY-04 (Biden +14.5)
Mary Peltola likely to continue to claim the opposite title
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Polis would've lost if he released this video before the midterms
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Two months ago, we watched in awe as Republicans flipped a double digit downballot Democratic congressional seat Republican
Two months later, we're scratching our heads in confusion why Republicans are in the battle of their lives trying to win an election in Alaska
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NEW Selzer POLL for Iowa Senate
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 53%
Mike Franken (D): 41%
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