Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
Followers
44,314
Following
2,158
Media
1,467
Statuses
60,328
@cal alum + lecturer; AI/software engineer; elections + modeling @SplitTicket_ . Chelsea ⚽, Sharks 🏒, Giants ⚾. ✉️ lakshya @splitticket .org. views my own. he/him
SF Bay Area
Joined July 2017
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Drake
• 2037755 Tweets
Kendrick
• 1792492 Tweets
Madonna
• 335029 Tweets
Star Wars
• 307108 Tweets
ANOTHER ONE
• 149167 Tweets
Not Like Us
• 139703 Tweets
こどもの日
• 139207 Tweets
Flamengo
• 110174 Tweets
Copacabana
• 90402 Tweets
ケンタッキーダービー
• 63105 Tweets
フォーエバーヤング
• 53296 Tweets
#precure
• 46001 Tweets
Kdot
• 43927 Tweets
子供の日
• 41989 Tweets
De La Cruz
• 38976 Tweets
#仮面ライダーガッチャード
• 32233 Tweets
#UFC301
• 28641 Tweets
Minnesota
• 25983 Tweets
#KentuckyDerby
• 25008 Tweets
プリキュア
• 24148 Tweets
#ブンブンジャー
• 23588 Tweets
Forever Young
• 22624 Tweets
ゴージャス
• 20987 Tweets
Timberwolves
• 20330 Tweets
設営完了
• 20197 Tweets
カグヤ様
• 19905 Tweets
Bruins
• 18037 Tweets
Mystik Dan
• 17365 Tweets
テーオーパスワード
• 15502 Tweets
Anthony Edwards
• 15465 Tweets
Bruno Henrique
• 12855 Tweets
Gerson
• 12430 Tweets
CERTIFIED LOVER BOY
• 11154 Tweets
ジャグラー
• 10832 Tweets
Sierra Leone
• 10633 Tweets
唐十郎さん
• 10513 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
At the end of 2023, I'd like to call out my favorite
@SplitTicket_
pieces that I think show some of our best work.
To start, a deep dive on the correlation between ideology and electability, using our
@SplitTicket_
Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) metric. 🧵
3
19
147
Earnest question: can someone please explain what is wrong with this?
686
1K
64K
damn he went through with it too
A’ trusted source’ told Boomer Esiason that Aaron Rodgers could threaten a Super Bowl boycott to get his point across about COVID-19.
182
67
278
40
3K
32K
@pandem1cleo
a good amount of people can't afford to go to medical school though and this does not seem to be a school with an excessively wealthy student body in any case, at least compared to many others!
18
80
22K
Nothing I have seen on this site will ever beat this set of posts.
92
590
19K
The way I see it is that it's just a very old rich person who decided to make tuition free in an attempt to make her medical school more accessible and affordable. Big deal. It's her money, and you can't fix everything — what's wrong with putting it here vs doing nothing with it?
20
98
18K
LEAKED: the Ron DeSantis presidential campaign’s full concession speech
15
1K
18K
One of the most insane moments I have seen on any social media forum was when we learned that in Sweden, if a kid was at his friend's house near dinnertime, the parents would make him wait in a different room while the family ate because they refused to feed someone else's kid.
161
1K
17K
half of america refuses to pick up a phone call now because of this man
26
1K
16K
ok I've read all the replies and some of you just seem like you want to be angry because you're bored.
51
91
13K
Ingraham: Ok, here’s what the Democrats’ platform is, ready? Pot, porn, Planned Parenthood
2K
443
4K
48
783
11K
I'm sorry but this is still the funniest tweet ever sent out by a sitting president
45
620
9K
I’m not Christian so I fully admit that my knowledge is lacking. Can someone please let me know which verse in the Bible says this is OK?
This might be an unpopular opinion and could hurt some feelings.
There are many conservative Christian women, who are influencers or leaders, that are selling themselves short and not being good role models by conforming to the world’s sexualization of women.
If you are…
4K
541
4K
152
1K
9K
Quite the night for Democrats today in special elections.
- In New Hampshire, a Hassan +9 seat is D+11.
- In Kentucky, a Biden +31 state senate seat is D+54
- In
#VA04
, they're on track to win a Biden +36 seat by 45.
Wow.
60
1K
8K
One big potential red flag for Republicans in their Senate races: here are battleground levels of net support for abortion, per
@nytimes
:
GA: +2, NC: +5, OH: +10
WI: +13, PA: +13, AZ: +13, FL: +18
CO: +20, NV: +32, NH: +35
It's why the focus from the GOP has been on the leak.
160
2K
8K
Tucker Carlson, Don Lemon, and James Corden gone in one day in Joe Biden's America.
75
557
7K
Something tells me the right-wingers who always fawn over this image are going to be significantly less enthusiastic when they find out that it's the Biden +61 town of Stowe, Vermont.
The church in that image officiated a same-sex wedding.
61
516
7K
> Campaign slogan of Never Back Down
> Tanks from 36% to 6% in polls
> Backs down
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
- Winston Churchill
24K
11K
77K
23
432
7K
This is getting worse and worse for Dr. Oz by the minute. He's underperforming Trump by high single digits in virtually every completed county, and by pretty sizable margins too. If this holds, he genuinely may be the single worst candidate of 2022. Fetterman very clearly favored
65
481
6K
Jesus Christ.
BREAKING: Arrest warrant issued for Daniel Rodimer, a former wrestler and political candidate, for open murder according to court records.
Law enforcement source tells
@News3LV
it’s related to a homicide that happened at
@ResortsWorldLV
on October 29.
96
576
1K
81
981
6K
in memory of the funniest interaction I have ever seen on this site
57
211
6K
There's a lot to be said about California housing being unaffordable and ridiculously expensive, but the reason houses are *so cheap* in states like Arkansas, Indiana, and Alabama is because people just don't want to live there.
Why spend $11,000,000 in LA for a mid century modern when you can have this one in Little Rock for only $1,100,000???
It has almost 6k sq ft and even has a sunken living room???
667
1K
27K
128
381
6K
A lot of online leftism is increasingly just turning into "I want a society where everyone does the work for me and I don't have to do anything but talk and complain"
183
429
6K
a real line uttered by a real campaign operative in the year of our lord 2023
71
349
6K
do you know just how much paint it would actually take to cover 1% of the Earth's surface area
So it looks like science just solved global warming?
397
263
3K
180
163
6K
If you ever feel gullible, just remember Spotify gave Prince Harry and Meghan Markle $25M for what currently amounts to one podcast episode over the last two years.
41
252
5K
have never seen a tweet that encapsulates election twitter more perfectly than this
This is forecasted for next Monday in Iowa for the caucuses. Likely will depress turnout, who will benefit more?
39
21
577
18
144
5K
The person to blame for Katie Porter's collapse is Katie Porter, not Barbara Lee.
Porter had $28M, was the leading progressive candidate, and had a metric ton of money. She did so badly that she would have easily been eliminated even if every one of Lee's votes went to her.
96
334
5K
The only thing I have learned about economics through Twitter is that all of you are really bad at shopping.
Bell peppers are $3.99 each, I’m not trying to hear no more money debates. TIMES ARE HARD. PERIOD.
1K
11K
71K
73
303
5K
Truly amazing how every ethnicity across the last three generations shares childhood trauma from opening the tin, expecting cookies, and finding sewing needles and buttons.
Black Twitter, I’m betting only my Gen X folks recognize this here, and remember it from early age. Just had me some delivered.
2K
386
9K
60
847
5K
Wow. Lackawanna County 92% in, and John Fetterman leads by 16% over Mehmet Oz.
This was a Biden +8 seat. That is absolutely embarrassing for Oz. He's absolutely not out of it, but you'd pretty clearly rather be Fetterman at the moment.
50
427
5K
Every so often, whenever I think America is hopelessly divided, I like to remind myself of the Balkans and then I feel better.
Ukraine fans turned a Russia flag upside down to insult Putin, but Bosnia fans thought it was a Serbian flag and attacked them.
302
2K
12K
7
252
5K
Unironically, I do think that if Obama was somehow still eligible and chose to run against Trump in 2024, he'd put up some unfathomable numbers. It's hard to overstate just how electorally weak both Trump and Biden are right now.
88
141
5K
...and get this, every single Swede and a metric ton of Europeans were in the replies saying that as usual, Americans were just weird and abnormal.
(this behavior is considered a crime against humanity in India, Mexico, Africa, and basically any half-civilized place)
27
117
5K
Have never, ever seen this before. In an ultra-high turnout Wisconsin election with no inbuilt cause for asymmetric turnout (like a presidential primary), Democrats are on track to win by a shade under 11 points.
This is a Biden +0.6 state.
59
406
5K
I have a lot more sympathy for the fifteen year old tweeting this thinking that the UN can enforce a ceasefire than I do for the thousands of adults freely echoing this on the timeline.
44
246
4K
Gotta say, Sean Patrick Maloney might go down as the single worst DCCC chair in recent memory. Triaged CA-27 and OR-05 on top of his own disastrous decision to switch districts, and at this stage, it looks like that's going to cost Democrats the House.
135
459
4K
feel like enough americans don't appreciate how bizarrely funny it is that ronald reagan's chief of staff was named donald regan
31
200
4K
might be shouting into the void but if you think “defund the police” failed because it wasn’t radical enough, there’s nothing more to say. it’s just such a staggering misreading of what the electorate actually looks like that it makes actual progress impossible.
66
282
4K
If someone convinces you that the Democratic Party will replace the 82-year-old who beat Trump with the 76-year-old that lost to him, then you are extremely stupid and should have someone on hand to ensure that you don’t respond to the Nigerian Prince emailing you.
A little voice in my head has been nagging me to rethink the DNC’s predicament given the fact of Hillary Clinton.
@michaelmalice
convinced me that HRC replacing Biden on the ticket is not only plausible, but may even be likely. Color me spooked.
729
317
3K
85
324
4K
look, if you're complaining about living paycheck to paycheck after buying yourself a BMW, donating to your very rich alma mater, and spending 18K on 3 vacations a year, then you do not get to complain.
282
289
4K
Lot of things can be debated, but I think this one should be pretty uncontroversial to everyone outside a certain subsection of Twitter.
This is unquestionably one of the biggest public health success stories of the last 40 years.
60
261
4K
Jon Ralston track record:
- Harry Reid win in 2010
- Dean Heller win in 2012
- Clinton/CCM win in 2016
- Rosen/Sisloak win in 2018
- Biden/Harris win in 2020
- CCM/Lombardo split in 2022
what the hell, man. how?
74
284
4K
That’s a wrap. Democrats win the Senate. God bless Rick Scott.
34
274
4K
how are any of you people functioning adults? not every single interaction needs to be viewed through a weird activist lens that views politeness and decency as a form of oppression.
@amazeydazey
And that’s great. But Zoë is a service animal. It’s not my job to teach problematic kids. There were plenty of other dogs at this location who the parents could put at risk.
440
39
3K
68
220
4K
We have some polling now in the wake of Dobbs.
-
@maristpoll
: D+5 -> D+7
-
@MorningConsult
: Tie -> D+3
-
@YouGov
: D+4 -> D+7
Starting points can be questioned, but when all three polls show movement after a decision that every poll agrees is unpopular, something is likely shifting
104
704
4K
These people have no knowledge of what the American healthcare system was like in 2008.
122
269
4K
Every time you hear about "states' rights", it's almost always to defend some of the most demonic or insane stuff imaginable.
Biden wants to replace lead pipes. He failed to mention that the unfunded mandate sets an almost impossible timeline, will cost billions, infringe on the rights of the States and their residents – all for benefits that may be entirely speculative.
#sotu
8K
299
1K
25
399
4K
To be completely honest, if you're watching a State of The Union speech, you're almost certainly not an undecided voter.
This is the loudest State of the Union speech I can remember.
Let’s see whether undecided voters like being yelled at.
#SOTU
3K
564
4K
29
151
4K
It’s probably not accurate to say that 2020 or 2024 are the “most important election of your lives”.
Because when you look at the Supreme Court and the control that Donald Trump has achieved on one major political party, it was clearly 2016.
94
418
4K
Saying you'd vote for someone even if they were dead seems pretty enthusiastic to me.
Mark Cuban backs Biden (not super enthusiastically): “If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden"
@josh_wingrove
reports
1K
1K
8K
26
221
4K
Pretty comfortable saying that this is going to be an absolute pummeling of the Pennsylvania GOP unless we're all missing something with the unreported votes. Fetterman likely to win by ~5 at this rate. Shapiro might hit 15 if this continues. Bloodbath.
64
324
4K
Among the biggest casualties of tonight might be the Trafalgar Group's A- rating on FiveThirtyEight. All-star ensemble of polls that had things like a tie in
#NYGov
. Turns out that randomly adding extra Republicans to polls isn't always a winning strategy.
44
373
3K
this is possibly the only issue where everyone on Twitter is going to agree with Saudi Arabia while thinking Sweden is a backwards place with an embarrassing set of social norms.
The Saudi General Authority for Statistics is running an ad gently asking people to stop inviting census takers into their homes for coffee and meals.
157
3K
13K
13
145
3K
It'll always be overlooked, but the fact that Nancy Pelosi was able to get the Inflation Reduction Act through on a razor-thin majority is honestly extremely impressive, because I'm really not sure Kevin McCarthy or Paul Ryan could have passed that bill with a 4 seat majority
95
373
3K
One last thing about Pelosi that's amazing for me is that she often knew how many votes Republicans would have better than the Republican leaders themselves knew.
13
259
3K
IMO there is now a very, very real chance that Democrats hold the House, and I really don't know who I'd rather be. I think you can make an argument that it's a pure coin-flip at this point. Insane.
66
266
3K
For context, Pelosi won't be back for a few more days because she's at Feinstein's funeral — it's a move purely borne out of personal spite and bitterness from McHenry and the GOP, who seem upset that Pelosi and Jeffries didn't organize the Democratic caucus to save McCarthy.
NEWS - As one of his first acts as the acting speaker, Rep. Patrick McHenry ordered former Speaker Nancy Pelosi to vacate her Capitol hideaway office by Wednesday
“Please vacate the space tomorrow, the room will be re-keyed"
w/
@DaniellaMicaela
2K
2K
5K
66
541
3K
This is exactly what happens when you elevate a random backbencher to the
#3
position in the US government and make him manage a caucus.
Republicans are extremely lucky that the average voter will not hear much about this, because this is unbelievably embarrassing.
House Republicans fail to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas 214-216
408
914
5K
27
373
3K
There it is: for the first time since November, Democrats take the lead on the
@FiveThirtyEight
polling average for the generic ballot.
Environment on the day of the Dobbs decision: R+2.3
Environment 6 weeks later: D+0.1
87
532
3K
Dressing up as a confederate when you represent Gettysburg in the state Senate is really a new level of insanity.
EXCLUSIVE Pennsylvania candidate Mastriano posed in Confederate uniform at Army War College w/
@phildstewart
837
1K
2K
67
592
3K
What's amazing here is that almost every single worst-case scenario envisioned by median MSNBC watcher ended up panning out, while the haughty scoldings of the podcaster and columnist class about how Trump would just be like Any Other Politician but more crass flopped badly.
58
532
3K
I would actually say that Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation up to this point has been among the finest hours of his presidency, especially given that we know what the contrast would look like from the past administration.
84
398
3K
If you were to create an instant electoral poison pill in a lab, this might be what you'd get. It is hard to overstate how *incredibly* unpopular this type of position is with the electorate and how difficult it would be to defend it on a national stage.
Signed the Heartbeat Protection Act, which expands pro-life protections and devotes resources to help young mothers and families.
7K
2K
15K
72
278
3K
Two bright spots for Democrats currently in the Senate, based on early returns: New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan is outperforming Joe Biden, even in Trump-won areas, and Georgia, where Raphael Warnock continues to put up a good showing with a surprisingly low libertarian share.
24
272
3K
when all of this is over, nobody is going to believe that any of it ever happened.
41
419
3K
Unreal. Dems are about to unseat GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in
#NM02
by 1,015 votes. Reverse of 2020 continues -- Rs now losing key races by just a whisker.
35
419
3K
Unbelievable. Mary Peltola (D) has flipped the Republican-held congressional seat in
#AKAL
in round 2 of ranked-choice voting, netting 51.47% to Sarah Palin's 48.53%.
Peltola got 40.20% in the first round against Begich/Palin, which was just ~2.5% shy of Biden's 2020 vote share.
44
446
3K
once again I think people with little memory of the 2000s simply do not understand how big of a deal Obamacare was and how it eclipsed every single accomplishment of the Clinton presidency in magnitude, impact, and scope.
Bill Clinton was a better president than Barrack Obama was. Clinton saved the Democratic party and allowed it to become what it is today: liberal, cosmopolitan, and progressive. Obama, for all of his personal political abilities, largely opted out of party or country leadership.
142
22
345
136
217
3K
I still think Wikipedia gets a ridiculous amount of hate from skeptical folks, but it's really probably the best data and knowledge resource that has ever existed in human history and I really think people shouldn't shy away from using it if you can verify the sources on it.
92
192
3K
I know people like to sound smart, but ignoring heavily-reviewed and well-maintained aggregations of information so you can “do your own research” is more often than not an easy way to slip into conspiracy theories.
The worst Wikipedia defense has gotta be "it's ok for a starting point, just follow their citations!"
If you're following Wikipedia citations, you're still using Wikipedia!
It's like saying "I don't get all my information from Brad— I also consult books Brad tells me to read!"
449
31
633
16
178
3K
John Fetterman was a fantastic candidate. The electorate just thought that making fun of a stroke victim was worse than having a stroke. Some Republican figures seem unable to comprehend this, for whatever reason.
"Candidate quality matters." Well, Democrats were able to election a senile geezer Joe Biden who nobody likes and John Fetterman who can't complete a sentence. Republicans can win with the worst candidate ever if we understand that elections in 2022 are ballot counting operations
693
579
3K
64
249
3K
Genuinely the single best national candidate Democrats would have if Biden doesn’t run. Just phenomenal.
"It is my honor to utter the four most powerful words ever spoken in a democracy: The people have spoken."
— Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) after winning re-election
36
378
3K
86
127
3K
The fact that an incredibly dangerous virus is now an afterthought in most of America thanks to an effective vaccine that was properly developed, tested, and distributed within a year is something historians will probably view as one of the biggest achievements of the century.
39
243
3K
Back in October when everybody had assumed Kari Lake’s victory was a foregone conclusion and hyped her up as a 2024 VP candidate, I got a text from a smart R pollster who said “You know, I can’t shake the feeling that she reminds me of Andrew Gillum”.
Now that I think of it…
38
144
3K
Wow,
#GASen
is looking very, very close. There's a real chance now that Warnock could hit 50% outright and avoid a runoff altogether. I'd still say a runoff is more likely, but this is shaping up to be one to watch. Outstanding votes in Atlanta metro area may put him over the top
24
258
3K
It’s very funny that from the beginning, Nancy Pelosi could count Republican votes better than Kevin McCarthy could.
17
257
3K
How Democratic are young voters in swing states (at least by party registration)?
NC: D+11
PA, FL: D+17
AZ: D+22
NH: D+25
NV: D+28
For
@SplitTicket_
, our most detailed piece yet on a *potential* generational cliff.
127
698
3K
@BGM_22
@pandem1cleo
you can't fix everything and it's often simpler and more expedient to do this than it is to try and set up a scholarship fund that would screen for this.
2
3
3K
Wild to see how Boris Johnson has lost his job over something that Donald Trump would possibly have gained votes for in the United States
20
183
3K
Pelosi's legislative list includes the Affordable Care Act, the Recovery Act of 2009, the CARES act, the ARP, infrastructure, CHIPS, the Inflation Reduction Act, and a host of other bills with razor-thin vote margins. Can't think of many speakers even half as influential.
31
499
3K
Kind of interesting that the guy who's been relentlessly mocked his entire career has struck more successful deals for legislation during his presidency than his predecessor, a world-famous real estate magnate who wrote a book all about deal-making.
27
306
3K
No, because it didn't happen. Tim Kaine got yearly scores of 100% from NARAL 3 years in a row before his VP nomination. He was very unabashedly pro-choice well before 2016.
Remember when Hilary Clinton picked an anti-abortion running mate in 2016?
827
1K
15K
36
404
3K
well that’s probably the absolute peak this app will ever reach.
9
111
3K
I'm waiting for my code to run so here's a fun unpopular opinion of mine: the salary of the President of the United States is $400K and that is actually absurdly low for the job.
Congressional salaries of $174K are also too low. And don't even get me started on staffer salaries.
179
149
3K
It’s not over yet, but between the news of 26K more (likely very Dem-leaning) ballots in Clark, and with Catherine Cortez Masto gaining 5.2K votes in a 20K Washoe batch (CCM +26), there’s pretty clearly one campaign you’d rather be right now.
Cortez Masto is a clear favorite IMO
19
208
3K
if I got cooked this bad I’d voluntarily disappear into a gravel pit.
25
189
3K
If the Republicans win a majority in the House (very much an open question at this point), the majority will be no more than 2-3 seats in all likelihood as things currently stand.
Kevin McCarthy would struggle managing a 10 seat majority. No idea how he works with a 2 seat one.
76
190
2K
I have never seen a candidate who has wilted quite this badly under the slightest bit of scrutiny through so many self-inflicted errors, and that includes Scott Walker and Rudy Giuliani.
EXCLUSIVE: Ron DeSantis will launch his presidential bid with Elon Musk
The Florida governor will announce he is running for president on Twitter Wednesday evening in a conversation with Musk.
W/
@Mdixon55
286
222
480
47
178
3K
Between this and the NYT Airport Bourbon Incident, I am calling for a complete and total moratorium on upper-middle-class journalists writing about economic pain
"The economy is hot, but the people are bothered,"
@GiladEdelman
writes. "Americans are really, really unhappy about grocery prices."
65
38
90
82
310
3K
every so often it's nice to get some validation that you might be somewhat decent at the thing you do as a side hobby.
47
127
2K