If Stansbury indeed surpasses Haaland, it will be the first time that a seat formerly held by a Cabinet official swung towards the president's party since the special for CLE Mayor in 1962 to replace Anthony Celebreeze and the first House + swing since the Wilson administration.
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(This is swing in terms of the vote of the Cabinet official/their successor, not presidential vote.)
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@jacobfhsmith
Yeah, I guess that makes sense, because John McHugh didn't take a cabinet-level position.
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@yfnowl
It's for the research here. We started collecting this data back in 2017 and just recently got all the way back to the Washington Administration.
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@jacobfhsmith
@MatthewWallack
It's great to know when my WAGs are in line with actual research; I thought something like +15 was a reasonable expectation for Stansbury, ceteris paribus. No presidential winner at the top of the ticket and not an incumbent.
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Final thoughts on
#NM01
1. Dems should be happy/very happy
2. Low turnout (especially for Eday GOP) shows that 2020 mail/early is here to stay but GOP EDay surges were more a Trump 2020 function
GOP will still win early in person & Edays in most CDs in ‘22 though
Short 🧵
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