Kunal Shah 🗽
@realKunalAShah
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ex GS (The Other Kunal is Still Happily at GS). First amendment advocate. Becoming a fan of the Fifth too. Okay the fourth too. Here to learn.
London + Washington
Joined December 2012
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Pinned Tweet
Long Live J.P. Morgan.
You don’t see this often - protestors in Shanghai calling for Xi Jinping to step down:
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The UK is a prime example of why you don't remove the Indian in charge of the finances.
cc
@ParikPatelCFA
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@raykwong
I think that says it all.
Germans really would rather deal with the Iranians, Russians and Chinese.
No Action on Hong Kong
No Action on Uyghurs
No Action on Navalny
No Action on Navid Afkari
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This crash will be the big one.
When China devalues CNY in this environment, it's a material risk off event akin to the oil price shock in Feb/ March. Just on a scale biblically higher.
The endgame has begun...ultra-debt deleveraging on the route to super inflation
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@Jkylebass
The Nazis did the same with our movie industry in the 30s.
Appeasers - Viacom/ Paramount.
China has in a very cheap way destroyed the integrity of our press and media. In their eagerness to make a few shekels they have traded away something far more precious
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@Jkylebass
Kenya unfortunately has had its politicians sell its country to the Chinese. From the wasteful/ overpriced/ unsuccessful SGR, to destroying local industry with dumping, to facilitating corruption by leaving a debt load that’s tripled in the last few years
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Growing up is stopping sharing a password
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@MichaelJMorell
@TheJusticeDept
@CIA
Michael in all fairness there were quite a few leaks from the intelligence community intended to harm a newly elected President and his agenda. That merits an investigation
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Really really thoughtful piece from
@AshaRangappa_
Worth a read. We all need to understand where our North Star is more than the immediate destination sometimes
Note From Asha: Never Let Your Skill Exceed Your Virtue - Asha Rangappa
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@Jkylebass
China is the best friend to corrupt governments who are too willing to sell their country/ sovereignty for personal gain. And that’s most of Africa right now
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CCP: We’re communist
Tiger Global : China’s becoming more capitalist
CCP: We’re communist
Tiger Global : China’s more capitalist than the US
CCP :We’re communist
Tiger Global : They’d be stupid to fck over investors, who says no to money
CCP : We’re communist
Tiger Global:Fuck
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I can’t believe that despite
@muddywatersre
‘s extremely detailed analysis of so many Chinese companies over the last few years- and
@Jkylebass
‘s appearance after appearance on CNBC - both well articulated- both the micro and macro- that the whole professional investing world..
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This crisis unlike the 2008 crisis is not a liquidity crisis. It is a solvency crisis/ a demand crisis. Throwing more liquidity at companies/ individuals does not work when they intend to deleverage/ suppress demand/ “hunker the fck down”
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Cannot tell what is OpenAI product and what is real anymore
Miss Ukraine getting ready for the Miss Universe Competition 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🎄☃️ 🙌🏼🙌🏼🙌🏼 Costume is just 🤩
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Something from the archives from
@AshaRangappa_
It speaks to the broader topic of what we say about ourselves and the rest of the world- whatever side of the political aisle we lean on- if we were to re-elect Donald Trump despite clear red signs on leadership.
ICYMI: Donald Trump Jr.’s Russia meeting may have been legal. But that’s a low bar via
@AshaRangappa_
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All those at Hogwarts - this is our muggle version of Defence against the Dark Arts.
Our expelliarmus spells require much more concentration and practice
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@ParikPatelCFA
@iLoveJaneAdams
Frankly Parik - many of the people who use them dont seem to know the answer to that question.
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How do I get long this guy
Kim Kardashian's new guy Pete Davidson reveals LOVE BITE on his neck during romantic date in LA
Read more:
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“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile—hoping it will eat him last.” Sir Winston Churchill
Just saw this article about Ray Dalio praising the CCP as "reasonable, caring, and highly-informed". Hope he keeps some mouthwash in his desk.
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@sarah_cone
@growing_daniel
Studies actually show it’s dangerous to give up smoking or drinking in your old age than continuing with them because loneliness is a far bigger killer and drainer of your life force
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For the brave ones - the time to short has come. If 5% FFR cant kill stupid valuations and break unsustainable models - really we must give up shorting all together
PS the USD wrecking ball is coming back...
Short $TSLA
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@MichaelJMorell
@TheJusticeDept
@CIA
While the intelligence community’s assessment that Russia interfered in our election process is extremely sound, coming up with high confidence judgements that Putin directly pushed support for Trump seems like a reckless conclusion.
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Let me make the Wall St folks understand.
It would be as though you are promoting the stock long, but secretly dumping out of the stock before announcing you had other plans.
@muddywatersre
- how did I do out of 10?
China has no plans for Taiwan nor a desire for a cold or hot war with the US. Xi couldn’t be more explicit.
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We are approaching a phase where selecting the EM currencies and markets that will outperform/ best value stocks/ relative value trading generally will fail to perform.
We are approaching a global macro ‘liquidate all’ moment, which was briefly experienced in March
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@ParikPatelCFA
@chamath
You don’t necessarily have to overcome duverger’s law. Even if the third political party doesn’t win- it creates space for the centrists to support the more moderate arms of both parties.
Even in defeat it will be victory
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China Imposes Checks on Large Transactions After Bank Runs
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Freedom has many difficulties and democracy is not perfect, but we have never had to put a wall up to keep our people in, to prevent them from leaving us. -
President John F. Kennedy
West Berlin
June 26, 1963
#HongKongIndependence
China won't rule out blocking Hong Kong citizens from leaving to take up Boris Johnson’s offer of a new home in the U.K.
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This is an extremely ignorant sentiment amongst much of FinTwit.
Europe has produced generally high levels of wealth spread across many more people.
Airbus and other associated aviation industries have done incredibly well, fashion, beauty, pharmaceuticals sectors have won
Has Europe produced any meaningful economic value in the last 30 years or do they just fine American companies and try to block mergers?
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China was, is and will be uninvestable as long as Xi Jingping is in power.
Russia was, is and will be uninvestable as long as Putin is in power.
See what the hurdle is ?
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Spot the Difference.
Timeline of when we lost our spine....
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Happy Birthday
@GenMhayden
.
The very best of what it means to be an American.
Hope you are recovering and looking forward to see you back out in your usual gusto!
As you raise your drink this St Patrick's Day, don't forget to toast our favorite Irish-American on his birthday, Gen Michael Hayden!
#StPatricksDay
#birthdayboy
#StPaddysDay
@GenMhayden
@CIA
@NSAGov
@ODNIgov
@usairforce
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The United States should be exporting privacy, civil liberties, due process & freedom of speech.
We should not be importing repression, censorship and trial without defence.
If the Tech Giants continue down this path to censorship, we will lose our most precious things
Digital Authoritarianism: Finding Our Way Out of the Darkness - War on the Rocks
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You see her at a club at 4.00 AM- How do you open?
"Hey, wanna get out of here...It's not too late to get into THE club?"
Finnish President in short: If Russia invades Ukraine, we join NATO.
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Because we outsourced all the worlds production there Kyle.
Gotta adjust it for what we all import from China
So let me get this straight…the US and Europe (44% of global GDP) are each down one billion tons of emissions while China (18% of global GDP) has recklessly expanded 7 billion tons over the same time frame. Just imagine if China achieved similar per capita
#s
.
#China
#DoTheMath
…
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I’ve watched 29 MCU movies.
I’ve never seen a shot as ridiculous and incredible as this truck/animal shot in RRR (on Netflix)
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Ted Cruz is a moron on this
27/China is also becoming a football in America's neverending, always-intensifying culture wars.
This is preventing the U.S. from taking leadership in the region. Look at this bullshit Ted Cruz just pulled:
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I am so off my dating game
The lighter penguin is an elderly female whose partner died this year. The darker one is a younger male who lost his partner two years ago. Biologists have followed them as they meet every night to comfort each other. They stand for hours together watching the lights in Melbourne
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When I pointed to Xi’s statements directly calling for Chinese state intervention/ socialism- they tell me I don’t know or I don’t care what the CCP leader and entire party line is- we don’t believe them…
I mean WTF?
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@FWIWmacro
Agreed. If anything we must treat these relationships as sacrosanct.
A great paragraph from former NSA and CIA Director
@GenMhayden
’s book just to show how important these alliances are
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Still can’t their head around to the degree of opacity, systemic risk and long term motivations of the Chinese Communist Party.
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A Goldman Sachs alumni
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"It's not that complicated right now. You're just not in QE times anymore. You're in the QT era. It's a higher rate environment."
It can't be the same multiples as before, It's not bad. It's just a different environment."
David Tepper
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“If you opened up the doors of America, a billion people come here,” Dimon said. “If you open the doors of China, how many people do you think would go there? And so people should be a little careful when they think that China is ascendant that way.” - Jamie Dimon
It doesn't fit in a tweet, so I'm doing this.
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I guess one or two billionaires or international firms need to see asset seizures in Hong Kong for there to be a catalyst for serious capital outflows out of HK.The complacency is shocking
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@ContrarianShort
@zerohedge
Ken ain’t gonna come on CNBC. He’s disciplined and will cut out positions much quicker. Continuing to be short is a poor risk reward trade. The whole street senses there’s blood in the water...
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@MarkRuffalo
@JuddApatow
Mark ,buddy big fan, but 1500 workers instead of 25000 being hired...I really don’t know how she has helped this particular situation
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It’s funny how consistent this research result has been yet the morons in congress are unable to slap path to residency and 5 y work visas on all graduate of US universities or advanced STEM from around the world
New
@nberpubs
: "immigrants act more as 'job creators' than 'job takers' and... non-U.S. born founders play outsized roles in U.S. high-growth entrepreneurship."
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I was speaking to a couple of investors and business operators - who were stunned when I said China is running what seems to be a chimera/ Frankenstein of capitalism and socialism- but that ultra nationalistic Marxist Leninism is behind every decision- and is the overarching goal
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World's most bearish HF isn't bearish enough China. Makes we wonder if we really are unprepared for a China catastrophe.
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Macron is a fucking moron. Sometimes I think the Europeans deserve what is coming to them on China.
They deserved every bit of what the Russians have done - and their weakness is what gave Russia the greenlight to go into Ukraine.
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@Jkylebass
This is the the largest, most illegal activity of scale undertaken by the United States Government ever. Period. If it is allowed to stand no private property is safe to be owned. Our founding fathers considered property rights as important as human rights.
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Fannie and Freddie are in all probability approaching the final leg of what has been an arduous crawl to fairness for private shareholders and eventually raising capital and released from conservatorship.
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This hypersonic test is the seed funding for Raytheon, Northrop and Lockheed new business pitch.
Hypersonic missile defence project- Asgardian shield.
We need 100x interceptors, a couple thousand more lasers, ..you get the picture
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“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing,”- Chuck Prince, 2007
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“If the government can step in and take 100% of the profits of a corporation without any compensation, essentially the 2 largest expropriations of scale of private assets, then we are in a Stalinist state. You should take your money out and buy gold, bitcoins, etc”
@BillAckman
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@GenMhayden
- In many ways - Australians are even more culturally aligned with the United States than the UK - more fiercely independent - very good intelligence service.
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Make no mistake about it- the greatest external threat to liberal democracies is the CCP. They will support dictatorships- because as freedom is our export, dictatorships are theirs
JUST IN: Top American officials believe China may be moving closer to supporting Putin and seeking ways to soften the blow of sanctions on Russia, sources say
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China's property crisis is stirring protests across the country - Nikkei Asia
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I haven’t said this enough
@Billbrowder
is one of the bravest man I know of, and the Magnitsky Act is an extremely potent asymmetrical weapon against dictators and humans rights violators. Fantastic marathon of an effort. Keep it up!
@Billbrowder
BREAKING:
@SenatorWicker
and
@SenatorCardin
call on Secretary of State Pompeo to urge EU High Representative
@JosepBorrellF
to advance EU Magnitsky Act ASAP and include Sergei Magnitsky’s name in the new legislation.
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Incredibly bullish for the dollar. The US/ Japan are likely going to suffer deflation for the next 12 months- increasing real rates - deflationary expectations will persist. Whereas forward EM inflation expectations will be high. Big Real Relative Interest Rate Differentials!
Many argue that Real weakness reflects Brazil's low interest rates. I struggle with that argument. Brazil's 12-month carry is 1.6% vs 3.3% in South Africa or 4.6% in Mexico, so in reality the difference is small. The Real decline must be about risk premia versus other EMs...
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The biggest heist in the history of the country. Largest expropriation of private assets without just compensation
The more I read about the history of the net worth sweep, the less respect I have for Treasury folks under Obama.
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Yes. Even on China?
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What squawk will not write about is the increasing risk of 3-4% deflation. Tails in both sides are increasing, and if the Fed pursues inflation objectives at the risk of financial stability which is also implicitly in its mandate, likely it will miss both of them
"The next 3-5 years are going to be very, very challenging ... for the first time in a long, long time I'm actually worried about inflation," says legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller on the Fed. "I think we could easily see 5-10% inflation in the next 4 or 5 years."
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@friedmandave
@sarah_cone
@growing_daniel
It actually has to do with older people and social settings - and how drinking for example brings people together, allow them to be a touch more vulnerable, share, open up...
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Portugal, Greece and Spain have already passed very substantial reforms and are very attractive places to invest. Italy sadly remains the laggard with legal changes etc- but we have seen sea change from Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain…
Euro zone debt crisis is a misnomer, because it's really a BoP crisis. EMs devalue in such crises, while the Euro periphery equivalent is internal devaluation via lower prices and wages. No amount of debt gymnastics will make the periphery grow. Only structural reforms will...
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@MichaelJMorell
@TheJusticeDept
@CIA
But despite the FBI CI investigation being completely valid given the risks were too high the NAtSec Adv. was a Russian Asset, Michael Flynn deserves an apology in my opinion. .
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Now it is Xi who has left his economy and nation at deep risk - with the massive build up of debt. China's debt load has become a deep national security threat, and their economic model and distortions it creates has made malinvestment more likely. Xi betrayed China.
It is ironical Xi has completely blown apart the long term Chinese strategic plan of having lower debts in China, and simply forcing the United States to increase their debt burdens while dominating trade/ commerce and just waiting for the US to self implode.
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@Jkylebass
They are censoring our universities.
They are censoring our films.
They are censoring our press.
They will have started censoring entire nations...
They will soon censor everyone of us if we don’t push back.
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And the arguments for systemic bank runs as
@BillAckman
presents are outweighed by the systemic moral hazard issues. A depositor haircut will ensure that moral hazard issues are nipped in the bud
@davidfrum
Why should depositors there be made whole? SVB deliberately concentrated its funding risk in the highest bets part of the economy (tech). Tech played along by concentrating its counterparty risk at SVB. This is a failure of basic risk management. Why should they get wet nursed?
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@BarbMcQuade
@AshaRangappa_
Really elegant thread with clarity. Thank you.
I like to remind everyone of this insight from Fiona Hill- The Real Enemy isn’t Russia. It’s US. We are too eager to bite at each other throats - to step back and think about things in their totality with the complexity involved
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The best Sam Walton quote I ever heard was a reporter once asking Sam a question -When asked, “What do you think about a recession?”,
Sam Walton responded, “I thought about it and decided not to participate.”
They grew sales year in year out.
Cc
@honam
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COVID-19 Death Rates Are Going Down, And Not Just Among The Young And Healthy : Shots - Health News : NPR
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I think worth watching issuance and TGA balances. TGA drawdown has been a substantial liquidity injection into markets and EM and should reverse
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@Jkylebass
The same is happening at our educational institutions. Try inviting the Dalai Lama at Harvard or Yale...
It will be DEFCON 5 + crisis preparation meetings across the senior management at the Universities..
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The Saudis and Emiratis are buying NVIDIA chips on behalf of the Russians and Chinese…
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If the Republicans should be attacking the democrats about anything - it should be this - this is the most egregious criminal act of scale committed by the US Federal government outside military/ nat sec issues. Its simply stunning to me that more people dont raise this issue.
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@jam_croissant
great observation on incredible supply of vol on the SPX as well as single name securities particularly AI because of record structured product issuance
SET YOUR REMINDER for 12:50 PM EST today!
At 12:50PM EST, we have a space with market experts to discuss FOMC, the Fed, the US economy/markets, and more.
Tune into:
-
@jam_croissant
-
@FedGuy12
-
@LastBearStandng
-
@TheBondFreak
-
@UrbanKaoboy
Link:
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Everyone who increased exposure after Xi really showed the CCPs true colours over the past few years - truly has no excuse for losing money again this time.
cc
@muddywatersre
Hedge funds have boosted China exposure toward previous peak, per Goldman Sachs.
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@dekach1n
@RealCynicalFox
I can’t tell you enough of how spot on you are. I don’t mean wholesale pullout- reward countries like Poland, Lithuania, Greece, UK who have been carrying their burden. Completely remove the 40K force from Germany and reduce Italy by half- we will see dramatic shifts here
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"If you're going through hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill
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This is the issue as a locked account mentioned - if the numbers cant be trusted - shouldnt we go to the WTO - or adapt our trade/commerce practices because clearly there is something else going on with surpluses or avoidance of duties/ tariffs
Stunning chart from
@jburnmurdoch
.
China has reduced the quantity of the economic data that it publishes over time.
There are also more and more questions about the quality of the numbers that are still (?) released.
1/x
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Good paper on China running out of policy options on the debt accumulated...If capital controls were lifted - we would see the national version of whats called deposit/capital flight
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Updated Portfolio
Disney -31%
Amazon -22% (+ Calls 4%)
Comcast - 8%
PayPal -7%
Discovery -6%
AT&T -5%
Visa -5%
Uber - 5%
Mastercard -3%
Sony -2%
Opendoor -1.5%
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A bit more louder and clearer Madam Secretary
"Let me say it loud and clear: carbon-free nuclear power is an absolutely critical part of our decarbonization equation.” -
@SecGranholm
#ANSannual
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Peter Thiel- 2020 is the year we finally entered the 21st century
Old economy institutions which will be radically restructured or be eroded away.
20th century network effects not going to be driven by physical geography but more virtual. Radical reconfiguration of cities
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