Randy Woodward
@TheBondFreak
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Bonds 30+ years. Bloomberg '88 to '95.
Nashville, TN
Joined May 2009
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Global debt.
2007 = $57 trillion.
2017 = $233 trillion.
That’s a lot of kindling!
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My son, Austin, crushing a little Gypsy jazz in downtown Nashville. I think all the guitar lessons paid off!
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In my 30+ years covering mostly banks and credit unions across the country I've never had this many executives retiring in a single year. 15% of my clients.
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Nashville apartment industry bumping first 3 months free to 4. Investors looking to build on a piece of land in Nashville just bailed on their loan with 20mm equity. Several apartment buildings 1-2yrs old cannot get their occupancy above 40%...clock is ticking on them.
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Not so "temporary" reverse-repo spikes to a new record $2.426 trillion, paying 3.05%.
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Whoa!!! Monthly change in consumer revolving debt -$28.176 billion. Would I be wrong to consider that maybe consumers used their virus checks from the government to pay down their credit card balances?
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I have a question. How does the government continue to fund new student loans and forgive existing student loans at the same time?
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So, overnight repo hits, what I presume to be, the highest ever, including during the GFC. Would I be off-target to say this is a bit concerning? What the hell is really going out there?
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Allow me to add some perspective to this...it's going to get MUCH worse. I recently sent an article to all my bank/credit union clients that postulated (it's 100% accurate) that FICO scores climbed artificially higher during Covid due to the TEMPORARY debt moratoriums and govt…
JUST IN: Percentage of subprime auto borrowers 60+ days past due on loans hits a record 6.1% in September.
This is the highest delinquency rate of all time, even above the 6.0% peak in 1994 and 5.0% in 2008.
The return of student loan payments has added pressure to many of…
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3mo/10yr inversion quarterly back to 1962. We all know what's coming! And so does the Fed.
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Powell forces yields to all-time lows and keeps them there for 2yrs. 80% of bank assets reprice at those lows. Powell hikes at the fastest pace ever. Bank assets double in duration, stuck at those low yields. Banks forced to raise funding rates. SVB tip of the iceberg.
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I have to admit, my opinion of
@elonmusk
has been altered to the positive with all the truth-bombs he throws down here on government. "government should be a referee, not a player on the field."
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Small banks' (not in the top 25) deposits fell $125bil last week, $65bil of which went to the top 25 large banks. NOT good for communities as small community banks will have to tighten credit availability.
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Rumor from a friend. "friend of mine who works for the Fed as an agent at the IRS is hearing from his counterparts at other agencies to expect the national guard to be deployed this weekend, possibly the military, not martial law, but that will have a huge psych effect on markets
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Any client I have that's trying to get employees back to the office is not having a good go of it. Outright anarchy in some cases. This is going to be an interesting battle.
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FDIC has tens of billions to sell. FRC wants to sell 100bil. No banks are buying, only money managers. This is not going to work.
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I remember back in '06 when a real-estate developer friend called and told me the phone's just stopped ringing. He said they were ringing off the hook on a Friday, and the next Monday, they just stopped. It happened that fast. And yes, he went bankrupt.
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Probably nothing...Foreign repo from zero to $60bil, part of the Fed's $94bil balance sheet increase.
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Fed Funds Futures taking the WSJ 75bps "leak" very seriously. And I don't think the Fed will want to surprise with only 50bps given this number. And I suspect that's exactly why we got the "leak".
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Astute observation by my girlfriend while looking at the bookshelf. “Only an a$$hole would have their name printed on the book bigger than the title”. I never noticed this and she’s right.
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ODL is down another -$140.5bil from last week. It's gettin' real now!
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Question. Do I have this right? SVB lends 219mm to SVB insiders, money becomes SVB deposit, 100% SVB deposits are protected. Or am I taking crazy pills?
"SVB’s Loans to Insiders Tripled to $219 Million Before It Failed"
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Dr. Lacy Hunt's measure of "spendable" money, US bank's other deposit liabilities (deposits), continue to fall, now down -$1.72 trillion from its peak. This is one heck of an experiment.
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Seems things in Hong Kong are about to escalate. From what I can tell.
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Average 30yr mortgage back over 7%! This level and the speed at which the Fed put us here will have many unforeseen ramifications.
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Meanwhile in the land of credit default swaps. “No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.”
Voltaire. $CS
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This is a drop-the-mic commentary from Dr. Lacy Hunt. Well worth your
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5/10 spread leads 2/10 to inversion. But this time, currently at +12bps, the 5/10 spread is already where it was AFTER the Fed had already hiked several times the last two times. This time, they haven't even started. This is going to get really interesting really fast.
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M2 just updated (H.6), down again, and from what I can tell the first negative YoY % change ever!
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ALL of my community bank clients are going to "LOVE" this.
This is truly incredible.
Here is an exchange with Senator James Lankford & Yellen.
He asks, "Will every community bank ... get the same treatment as SVB?"
Yellen: "Banks only get the treatment if ... the failure to protected uninsured depositors would create systemic risk."
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How's it possible the first question isn't about the -1.4% 1Q GDP?
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"We're out doing what we have to do for our babies." I'm pretty sure this is what
@nntaleb
would refer to as "localism". And another reminder that "love is all around!"
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Whoa!! $346bil added to negative-yield sovereign debt to yet another all-time high. What is going on in this world of ours?
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Loan to deposit lowest since the '60s. It's not that they don't want to lend it's that they're running out of people to lend to.
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"I felt a great disturbance in the Force... as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced." Buyer Traffic!
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ISM number of industries reporting an increase in new orders at zero. The last time it was at zero was Jan. 2009.
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Call it what they will but this "deferred asset" will get someone's attention sooner or later and the Fed will have to spend a lot of time explaining this "special" accounting treatment they created for themselves.
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F’ing Zoltan again! From his March 3rd piece. Amazing what this fella can foretell.
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Central Bank balance sheet total back over $21 trillion
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6-month treasury bill climbs over 5%, first part of the yield curve over 5% since 2007.
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US Repo overnight accepted hits another all-time high at $132.375 billion...but it's just "technical". Prior to this, we saw spikes to $80bil around 9/11, and $50bil in the middle of the 2008 GFC. Since 9/17/19, we've seen those levels consistently, and now pushing higher. WTF!
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Fascinating/thought-provoking.
@profplum99
has been talking about how the 2/10 2yr forwards spread has been bouncing in and out of inversion. From what I can tell that's only ever happened AFTER the Fed has been well into their tightening phase, but we're there BEFORE this time.
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ALL financial asset prices MUST be supported. They'll never be able to get out of all this.
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@WSJmarkets
Direct lending to an unregulated financial sector. How does this fit their “mandates”?
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I'm not sure many people understand how truly mind-blowing the situation is in CRE. And it's getting worse every single day. They can "extend and pretend", for now, but sooner or later there is going to be a massive repricing of all these assets. I don't know...TARP 2.0?
Out now- my interview on Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
- Payment Shock from surge in interest rates
- Maturity defaults have skyrocketed for office CMBS loans
- Commercial Real Estate needs to reckon with "higher for longer"
- Gaps between buyers' and sellers' price…
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Negative-yielding sovereign debt up another $346 billion, to $17.467 trillion. And no one has a clue what ramifications will follow this grand experiment.
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This HAS to be a "markets got it wrong" damage control.
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Well, it took 55yrs, but finally have that monkey off my back.
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A home builder friend here in Nashville told me last night that he's hearing of a lot of people backing out of planned projects, and he's getting a lot of calls about lots for sale...all of a sudden. And this is in a booming town.
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10yr up 20bps, 30ry MBS spreads +10 on the day. 7% mortgage rates likely coming soon! Fed forces rates below 3% March '21, year and a half later, 7%. Brilliant!
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Aren't small businesses the number one employer in the U.S.?
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Money velocity is the lowest as far back as I can tell...can't fathom what's causing current inflation. At least how it's being funded.
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Friend here in Nashville with a lot of rental properties in both residential and commercial. Here's who is still paying rent. Residential 92%, Office space 50%, Retail 10%. Retail at 10%...that's going to create a lot of problems.
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I know it's just a number, but as the 10yr nears 1.25%, I wouldn't be surprised to hear "something" of significance from the Fed this week. They've "floated" the idea of yield-curve-control, but could it become an official "tool" soon?
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2/10 spread the most inverted since 2000, and they still have more hikes coming. Or do they?
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There was only one reason for yesterday's hike, they want more room for cuts that allow them to avoid zero-bound again, probably hoping for a 2% floor.
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My guess is Powell is perfectly happy with where rates are, where stocks are, and where Fed Funds Futures odds are. I suspect he says nothing new today and gets out of that presser as fast as he can.
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This is why the Fed can NEVER get out of the repo market again. SOFR must be controlled. They couldn't fully control Libor, that's why they invented SOFR. Repo is "supposed" to be glued to fed funds, given 100% collateralized. The spike blindsided them, even though they caused it
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When the market believes we're nearing a Fed pivot, lower in this case, the 2yr will start trading below the Fed target rate, which it did after the last hike at the Dec. 14th, 2022 meeting.
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I'll post this again Monday morning, but WOW! Negative-yielding sovereign debt up $337 billion to a new record high. Also, I had not noticed until now, there are 5 countries with negative-yield 30yr bonds.
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@DiMartinoBooth
My son is 24 and makes good money, which hasn’t stopped, yet he doesn’t save. However, he’s now seeing his friends struggle on unemployment, literally having to ration meals. Millennials are getting a depression era lesson in saving money for the rainy day. I hope my son does.
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This literally makes no sense at all.
FED'S KASHKARI: IF SUPPLY CHAINS DO NOT IMPROVE AS I EXPECT, THE FED'S TASK WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT, AND IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO DO MORE TO REDUCE INFLATION.
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Love is all around but you rarely see it in the news because heroes don’t advertise it.
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Negative-yielding sovereign debt nearing $18 trillion, climbing another $273 billion yesterday. One new member to the club is the Portugal 10yr at -0.016%. Keep and eye on Japan and Spain's 10yr as they're closing in.
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